Iowa Football 2024: Best & Worst Case Scenarios Plus Season Prediction

it's time to go on record I'll make my season prediction for the Iowa Hawkeye football team what it's going to look like what's the best case scenario what's the worst case scenario today lock down Haw you are locked on Hawkeyes your daily podcast on the Iowa Hawkeyes part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day hey welcome in I'm Trent Condon and this is the lock on Hawkeyes podcast thanks for making locked on Hawkeyes your first listen every day we're available wherever you find podcast you can also watch us on YouTube while you're there hit that subscribe button or if you're listening on the audio side five star reviews it helps us get in front of more Hawkeye fans today's episode is brought to you by Five Hour Energy Five Hour Energy fixes tired fast with zero sugar in a convenient portable size it's the perfect pickme up for getting stuff done go to 5our energy.com use promo code locked on CFB to receive 20% off your order this offer is only valid until September 30th on one order and cannot be used with other promotions go to 5our energy.com today all right let's get into it today as we man this has been a long week hasn't it trying to get our way to kickoff getting inside a kinck stadium again can't wait for Saturday taking the family over to Iowa City looking looking forward to that little tailgating reuniting with friends all the positives that are there we'll be at the spot that we've been ever since Olive Court closed and excited to get back over there again tell the same stupid stories talk about Hawkeyes in the past do all the things that we do probably make some Bets with my buddies play little games oh it's going to be a great time looking forward to that and of course uh hanging out with the family taking my five and ny- old to the game uh something that we look forward to done this the last couple of years with the opener and this one against Illinois State should be a great time let's talk about a couple of different ways want to go best case scenario worst case scenario and then I will give you my season prediction now I will tell you this I've been on the radio now for over two decades this will be my 21st year I begin I believe of making predictions I have been within a game or right on in my season prediction out of seven of the last 21 years and these are documented these are on the radio just not me talking to the buddies at the bar no this is real stuff here and uh been pretty good at this throughout the years we'll see how close I am to the prediction by the time we get through November but we'll throw that out to you here at the end of the show let's open things up though on the positive side of things as we await kickoff against Illinois State we know the matchups we've gone through the schedule we've talked about so many different things and the best case scenario for this team is a college football playoff birth I don't think it is a huge stretch to come up with a realistic path for Iowa to do just that and in order for that to happen I think a lot of things obviously need to fall into place not only winning football games and winning 10 11 games this season that's going to be a huge component but there's going to have to be some other things I think that also fall into play so here's the scenario and I think the best case scenario for Iowa football this year the way this plays out and also with a little bit of reality yes the best case scenario is for them to run the table go 12 and0 in the regular season win the Big 10 championship ship and then win three consecutive games and win a National Championship I don't see that happening yes that is the best case scenario let's live in reality though a little bit and go this direction you start and you look at this squad and you open up the defense is outstanding once again this year the defense that has been playing at these historic levels is even able to take it up another level because of an offense that plays better complimentary football actually happens this season in a big time way and that'll allows this defense to play even better as I mentioned my theory that we've gone through a couple of different times here every Dar or you know this I believe that we saw the lack of turnovers really the last couple of years from this Iowa defense is because teams knew they were fine just punting the ball back playing the style playing the system that Iowa plays and we weren't going to play into their hands we were not going to make a big mistake because we know what that can turn into either defensive points or a short field for the Iowa offense and because of that I think teams turtled a little bit against his Iowa Squad so you have that component that is number one defense remains at an elite level maybe even takes a step forward forces some more turnovers to go in hand inand with that you need health and defensive line is Paramount for that jermiah Pitman looks like he can be maybe a solid number three can they find a fourth guy a defensive tackle can Brian Allen take what we've seen in the past from him at some of the open scrimmages and open games and practices that we've seen and now be able to transl that onto the field in the middle Aaron Graves he takes a big step forward and goes from a nice complimentary piece the last couple of years and he becomes say an honorable mention all big 10 player and then Deontay Craig Craig returns to form on the end and becomes the guy that we saw two years ago and does it over the course of a full season in a full-time role you know what you're getting out of Jay Higgins you know what Nick Jackson's going to be a healthy season from Xavier Wampa the quarterback position is incredibly deep all those things go really really well defensively and they take that step forward other best case scenario how this happens is well I mentioned the offense coming together we believe that this run game is going to be good and even though there is going to be I believe some changes on Saturday uh in that running back room uh possible suspensions that are going to be happening and some guys sitting out at least for maybe the first half of the game maybe a full game out of your top four if you will ehab Kamari Molton heard great things about him he's still working his way back from injury lesan Williams same thing was injured early in Camp and though he's been back at practice he's still working his way through so we'll see those guys we'll see what's going to happen but this is more about the season as a whole the Run game gets going the Tim Lester offense really clicks and most importantly and probably number one on all of this is I was going to hit their highest level what I mentioned earlier if I was going to get to the heights of a college football playoff I believe they need Kade mcam to be the quarterback that can do it you need to see Kade Mamer return to the form we saw three years ago at Michigan completing 64% of his passes 15 touchdowns against C six interceptions that's the kind of season that you're going to need probably going to have to throw four over 2500 yards this year have to show that element also of this offense to come forward with it the wide receivers take that step and we see why Caleb Brown was recruited by Ohio State coming out of high school and he was a buckeye for a season and yes that Squad wanted him to stick around and play wide receiver he shows those kind of ab ities they finally figure out who that big X receiver is on the outside is Jacob Gil a guy that's going to be able to help out do we see an emergence out of a Jered buy the wide receivers take a step forward and then you have an All-American season out of Luke Lee we talked over unders yesterday I put the total at four and a half touchdowns for Luke Lee this season and say he Skies past that he's got six seven eight touchdowns this year again these are the best case scenarios and you look through the schedule and I think the best case scenario is 11- one now that means winning so many tossup games Iowa State the point spread tells us that is a tossup game Iowa favored by two and a half Iowa opened up as a three-point favorite against Wisconsin very quickly was bet up to a five-point favorite out at the South Point you look at some of the other games the Nebraska game uh Northwestern can give Iowa a hard time you you go through this schedule Washington they're going to look completely different but they're certainly going to have some good players there that road trip to UCLA there just so many land in this schedule and as a whole it's not overly daunting but best case scenario I believe is 11 and one now play with me here a little bit and I want to go this Direction with you as we're talking about the best case scenario and and the best case scenario to get into the college football playoff here's I believe the best path for the Hawkeyes they go 11 and one they lose to Ohio State in a relatively close game they'll lose 2717 they're there in the fourth quarter having an opportunity something like that maybe the Buckey put in a late score to make it a 10-point game just again play with me a little bit here as we go down this thought process so that happens and I was sitting there at 11 and one and they're sitting at8 and one in the Big 10 again we're talking best case scenario here that happens for me the best case scenario is for them not to go to Indianapolis because again in this new environment of the college football playoff going there and losing to an Oregon to Ohio State to whoever it may be is is going to hurt you as it pertains to the college football playoffs so my best case scenario Iowa goes 11 and one Ohio State loses their game out at Oregon the Ducks are on the table they're sitting there at 9 and0 in the conference Ohio State and Iowa tie at 8-1 the Buckeyes go to Indianapolis they get a rematch against Oregon Iowa gets to sit at home that weekend knowing at 11-1 they're a college football playoff team that's the best case scenario with it they would likely be hosting a first round playoff game welcome in maybe a team from the SEC how great would that be to see a team like an Alabama and Old Miss A Tennessee have to come into kinnick stadium in December it'd be the biggest game since 1985 inside the walls of kinnick Stadium just how amazing that would be to see something like that heck and we're playing this game let's win a game while we're in the college football playoff that is the best case scenario I believe for Iowa football this year but it doesn't always happen that way right we'll take a look at the worst case scenario plus my season prediction coming up here as we continue this is lockdown Hawkeyes today's episode of the lock on Hawkeyes podcast is brought to you by Five Hour Energy look Five Hour Energy is something that I use often I'm a night owl I'm up late and with it need a little bit of a kick or to get my day started Five Hour Energy is the 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talked about the best case scenario Iowa figures it out the offense is clicking everything is going everything that we've talked about another component Drew Stevens bounces back and is the guy that we saw last September and October not so much the guy that we saw in November a year ago Reese daen hits the ground running at the punter position I mean these are all things that have to come together for that to happen but there is the other side and the worst case scenario now here's a different angle to this the thing craters we go back to well two offensive coordinators ago when Keno Keefe made the decision that he was going to make his way down to Miami and Coach with Coach philin down with the dolphins when that happened there was excitement there was excitement for something new Keno Keef was much blind looking back sadly he's by far the best offens and coordinator that I was ever had but that's a conversation for a different dat but when that happened in year number one we saw James vanderberg struggle mightily at the quarterback position you were trying to incorporate a horizontal passing scheme with his own blocking scheme and it just didn't work it took a while for them even just get back to the confident level in 2014 Iowa completely fell on their face and went 4 and eight it was ugly game one in Soldier Field against Northern Illinois remember looking over at our friends that we were watching the game with and just saying I hate the Greg Davis offense and it didn't take long to see how ugly that is I don't anticipate I'm going to have the same reaction on Saturday you never know I guess is why we definitely have to look at that but back to the topic at hand and taking a look back here at this and what is the worst case scenario well it starts right there the offense just doesn't work you know another way you can look at it is maybe the offense looks pretty good in game one and then falls on its face because when you're talking about this a team with big expectations preseason top 25 team murmurs from not just local media National media that this could be a Darkhorse college football playoff team and they don't get there they struggle to seven and five six and six God forbid don't even have a winning record because not only will that be disappointing because of expectations the way the schedule lays out it and you look at the future of the way the schedules are I was not going to have a schedule set up this advantageous for them in a really really long time going forward with the additions of the four schools from the Pack 12 coming in along with no more divisions we know that the schedules that I was been handed recently are going to look a whole lot different it's going to mean more games against Ohio State Michigan and Penn State throw in USC and Washington and Oregon it gets a whole lot deeper going forward after this season for Iowa football when your crossovers this year when your your games from the newbies is just Washington you get them at home that sets up pretty good the UCLA game in a rebuilding season it looks like for the Bruins just all those things together L you see that plays out there's going to be questions about Kirk fence and if the offense doesn't click this year they're going to look around and say well let's see he's had a bunch of cordinators he's try to do it a different way now and it's still not working maybe it's the old coach that is the worst case scenario another component to this is that defense just takes a step back and you look at what they've done consistently over the last four or five years it's absolutely ridiculous we talked about just some of the numbers that have come out of this Iowa football team the amount of snap that they played maybe those snaps catch up to them and we see an injury ravaged team this season where the linebackers who were so good in J Higgins and Nick Jackson they are banged up throughout the course of the Season we talked about Xavier Wampa he's been dinged up during camp and maybe he doesn't have a healthy season after having a season a year ago where he wasn't healthy throughout the whole time you know there's an old adage if you don't if you have two quarterbacks you don't have any well maybe if you have four cornerbacks you know where I'm going we'll see I believe in these guys I have hope but again we're playing the other side here the worst case scenario for this Iowa football team it doesn't happen for reaken look we've seen Australian Pumpers that have struggled when they made their way over and that is something that has happen often maybe that just though he has a strong leg he doesn't have a release quick enough in order to make that happen Drew Stevens goes through many of the issues that we saw a season ago this is the worst case scenario I get it this is the negativity that can creep into my mind from time to time I'm not sure if it's all of us but that is something that is going to happen with college football back it's not too late to catch up before the season kicks off SEC ACC Big 10 Big 12 you can get it all from lock on stable of college football experts by subscribing to the lock on college football podcast who has a chance to make the playoff what teams will cause chaos in their new conferences everything you need to know all in one place be sure to follow And subscribe to the lockon colge college football podcast part of the lockdown podcast Network your team every day again worst case scenarios that's what we're going through here taking a look at the negativity and how about this now we struggled through last Season watching this team and I made the decision as they kept winning these games just in Crazy fashion with some of the most hideous offensive numbers that you've ever seen for a team winning the over under win total just total in each and every game just kept going down down down and I would Pitt under after under under after under it was that kind of year we sat through it because we're fans but if now we have to go through something like that again oh man for all of our sanity let's hope that that doesn't happen but there are no sure things Kade mamero has been injury-prone he's had two well really three devastating injuries over the last two years knee surgery at Michigan the quad injury that he sustained last August at kids day and then of course the torn AC against Michigan State this is a guy that is brittle Brenan Sullivan he wasn't asked to leave Northwestern but he was also known that he wasn't going to be the starter doesn't click for him Marco lionz certainly not ready I things can get ugly I remember a year oh man this is probably a decade back where Maryland was down to their fifth team quarterback who well hadn't been practicing quarterback at the beginning of the year he was a linebacker for him hopefully we don't get to anything like that I mean that would be absolutely Brut brutal to have to watch something but again these are the things that we have to go into take a look at mention the possibility of the running back position maybe airbag comes back we definitely don't want to see that but these are all the things that are still there the wide receivers remain pedestrian the offensive line is just a bunch of guards a bunch of interior guys and and we see that nobody's really a tackle and they struggle against speed rushers throughout the course of the year they get banged up like they did a year ago these are all things that realistically could happen and certainly dur which should be in my mind still a pretty good season so I've laid out the best case and the worst case let's wrap it up with my season prediction how I believe this season is going to go what we're going to see I'll give you the record for the Hawkeyes again I have been very close on this throughout the years we'll see if we can NAB another one for this Iowa football team lockdown Hawkeyes continues stay right there today's episode of lock down Hawkeyes is brought to you by FanDuel and the FanDuel sports book look you've heard us talk a lot about FanDuel it's America's number one sports book sports book well we have something a little bit different for you now through September 22nd all FanDuel customers can bet $5 and you're going to get a three-week free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube in YouTube TV then with a YouTube TV base plan you can watch every regular season Sunday afternoon out of Market game all you need is a Google account and a current form of payment and you can cancel at any time just visit fanduel.com lockon to download America's number one Sportsbook while you're there you can take a look at the numbers for the Iowa Hawkeyes Iowa currently at FanDuel a 22 and a half Point favorite against Illinois State the over under in the game is 41 you can bet on Iowa to make the college football playoff to win the Big 10 to win the national championship and so much more all on America's number one sports book right now again go to fanduel.com lockon to download America's number one Sportsbook today's episode of Locked on Hawkeyes is also brought to you by Factor look we've been doing meal prep here at home for a while and I can see the difference I have started to lose weight without doing a whole lot more just changing our routine in the evening and Factor can help you out with that factors fresh never frozen meals are dietitian approved and ready to eat in just two minutes so no matter how busy you are you're always going to have time to enjoy nutritious great tasting meals 35 different meals and more than 60 add-ons to choose from every week and you'll have new flavors to explore crush your Wellness goals this this uh fall season with dietician approved meals and ingredients that you can trust tra yourself to restaurant quality meals that feature premium ingredients like fillet Manion shrimp and black and salmon keep kitchen time to a minimum love this as somebody that's got a family 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comfortably I'm not sure if they're going to cover though I got Iowa winning this one 277 and moving their record 2 one and0 on the season after that we make the matchup against Iowa State Iowa State returns 19 starters they have some of the most most production coming back offensively of anybody in college football they are deep on the defensive line something that rarely happens with Iowa state yet I just think Iowa's better I think Iowa is a better football team I think they're better equipped they're in a better League they're playing in kinnick stadium and I think Iowa gets it done yes two years ago Iowa State came in and got the victory on a rain soaked night this one though is going to be different Iowa gets it done runs their record to 2-0 as Iowa pulls off the victory 2216 and goes to two and0 after that it's a matchup against Troy now Troy a year ago was a team that won double digit games Troy a season ago was a really good team they lost their coach they lost most of their talent this team is going to look completely different than the one that we saw a year ago this is a Get Right game and after kind of getting couple of tough wins in week one and week two this is where they put it on Iowa goes out gets the Victory 30-13 and Iowa Hawkeye sit at three and0 Here Comes their first road trip of the Season up next Iowa makes their way to Minnesota to take on the Gophers we all remember what happened a year ago it was ugly it was a rough rough day as Cooper de jeene had the punt return that was called off because of an invalid fair catch well Iowa turn about his fair play they get it done and find the victory 20-3 as Iowa gets another win and the Hawkeyes are 4 and0 up next is Ohio State the Buckey spent as much as anybody in college football on their roster this season not just Supple uh supplementing what they already had but you also look at what they return you know we talked a lot about that with Iowa the fifth and even the sixth year guys that came back for another season what the Swarm Collective did in order to make that happen Ohio state did the same and guys that had the potential to be second third round draft picks made the decision to come back for another season they think it's going to be a special year and I think they're going to have a special season I think the bucke guys are right there with Georgia onew in college football this season I think the prognosticators have that one right yes the Buckeyes win Iowa hangs tough though hangs around ultimately Falls 27-6 as Ohio State gives Iowa their first loss of the season so we make our way through the opening portion of the schedule the first four Gam games I was 4- one after the Ohio State game then it's back home for Washington we don't know a ton about this husky Squad they are just so different looking so new and because of that I just like Iowa in kenck I think they get it done 2416 Iowa picks up another win and bounces back after the loss to Ohio State after that it is a road trip out to Michigan State this one does concern me a little bit yes it's a new regime uh Jonathan Smith comes in from Oregon State leaving his Al M Mater to take over at Michigan State and I think he's going to do a good job I loved watching Oregon State Football under Smith both when he was a player and here recently as a head coach a very physical brand of football I think it fits incredibly well with Michigan State and when they've been their best certainly during my lifetime they were built in that kind of image that that chip on your shoulder rough tough physical that's how Michigan State's going to be built they're not there yet Iowa gets the win it's an ugly one 1410 Iowa gets the win though on the road against Michigan State suddenly the Hawkeyes are talking about the college football playoff after the game against Michigan State it's back home against Northwestern and Wisconsin two games that certainly W tight games a year ago you can look at a couple of plays in each of those games that easily could have made the difference the goal line stand in Wrigley Field against Northwestern the walk-off winner by Drew Stevens as he knocked it in and turned out the lights you had those ones but that one easily could have gone the other way same thing for Wisconsin yes Iowa won at 15 to6 it also took an 80 yard touchdown it took a safety in that game defensively Iowa had a lot go their way in Camp Randall I do believe though the Hawkeyes do get two victories two hard-earned wins and all of a sudden here we go Iowa is nine and one college football playoff here we come at a road trip to UCLA quick turn around on a Friday it's a place that Kirk fence's teams have struggled and suddenly Iowa drops a game they shouldn't lose Iowa Falls on the road at UCLA I was there in Arizona I was there at Arizona State I was there for the rose bow I know it has not been great for Kirk fence he said I believe maybe it was after the Arizona game didn't want to go back to the West Coast again and they haven't at least scheduled a non-conference game out there this one though well you can't schedule this one the Big 10 does that and I give Iowa their second loss of the season they bounce back after a byee they get Maryland after that they get the victory against the turps before Black Friday and the Nebraska coren Huskers still at this point I buy a nine and two still with potential maybe for a big 10 Championship Game appearance maybe still an outside shot of the college football playoff depending on the way the season plays out on NBC Black Friday it's going to be chilly in kinnick stadium the Huskers get it I have Nebraska winning this game and I with at least faint hope of a college football playoff that is Dash as they fall to the Huskers in the finale 2212 and Nebraska gets the victory there they'll be bull eligible already at that point they'll have seven wins I believe going into that game and that'll give them their eighth I think Nebraska is gonna be that improved and look I'm not somebody that has bought into the Nebraska hype well for the better part of two decades now I do think that they are trending in the right dire direction raay is going to be very good they got receivers on on the outside and that defense is El leite I think Nebraska is going to be a solid team at least this season a pretty good schedule for them early on for the Huskers that leaves Iowa at nine and three on the season no college football playoff no big 10 championship game a solid season over the win total that is out there in the betting markets of places like FanDuel but maybe leaving a little bit to be desired and certainly if it plays out in that fashion IA losing two of their last three that would be a difficult pill to swallow still the hawkey I have finishing nine and three on the season again been really good at this uh throughout the years been within a game of 17 the last 21 years and well let's see if they're within a game and they're 10- two take that and if I'm really off and they go 11- one we'll take that as well we are on record our season prediction for 2024 IA going nine and three in the regular season thank you for making lockd down hawkey your first listen today and now check out lockdown college football and the lockdown college football podcast from nil deals to the never ending conference realignment rumors spener glofin gets you ready for an exciting season on the grid iron and yes now we got games to talk about you can find the link to the lockdown college football in the description so you don't need to search all part of the lockdown podcast Network your team every day we'll be back with you tomorrow on Friday we'll have a little bit more leading into the weekend maybe if you're waking your way to kinnick Stadium you can pop it in and listen to the podcast on your way over to the Ball Game and we will get you ready for Iowa and Illinois State plus we're still working on a few details of some other things coming up here on lockdown Hawkeyes throughout the course of the 2024 football season thanks for making lockdown hawkey your first listen every day we'll talk to you again tomorrow go Hawks