2024 Season Preview - Iowa Hawkeyes Football | ANF PODCAST 27

when they don't have their QB who's going to just be the best Terrell Pryor Braxton Miller the best athlete in the field best player on the field you crack that door a little bit wider for Iowa welcome back to the ANF podcast we cover Iowa Sports today's episode we're doing a season preview of the 2024 Iowa season we're going to do a game by- game breakdown of our predictions of how teams are going to interact with this Iowa offense defense through that discussion we're going to illuminate Iowa strengths and weaknesses and also hopefully give you guys some detailed conversation on what is successful with in college football we're not going to do the Illinois State game we're not going to do the Troy game uh we anticipate you know a 90% winning percentage in both those games obviously Troy has been a very good program the last 10 years 20 years uh but they have a coaching change and thus we're not going to break down that team Illinois state is pro projected to be a not even a top 10 team in the FCS I think we'll roll them it might be a game of control 24 to3 but for those reasons we're only going to break down 10 games and the first game we're going to break down before that at the top of this we should also go through our predictions from last year so we uh chose both 10 and two which at the time was I think a win and a half above I was win loss percentage I think we were an eight and a half win loss percentage last year we were bet up we were originally at seven and a half and actually the public moved an entire game uh it didn't really occur the way we thought it would I guess it sort of did because we we believed in a strong defense we knew that we're going to play a lot of weak offenses that we're going to struggle to score that's really how the season played out uh we didn't predict to lose every single significant offensive player besides Caleb Brown yeah um um but it really shows you when you have a dominant strength in defense and special teams severe injury to your offense doesn't really matter it did matter but if you're going to win games against lower 40 half uh overall teams you're going to be okay what it shows is it it shows that if you're going to choose an elite strength for a team at a mid- tier level choose defense yeah and I think last year's win total in last year's like experience as Iowa fan is that Kirk has the right idea of how to run this program you we had the worst quarterback play in the country and we were able to sneak out 10 wins and a big 10 West championship against a lot of like programs that were in a lot better situations you know five games into the season and I think it just reiterates like if you're going to be a lead at one thing like be a lead at defense Aesthetics matter but results do too exactly all right but let's go into it so we're going to start with Iowa State first obviously this is a a really easy game to break down you know we've Campbell's been there since what 2015 2016 was his first year it's been pretty much the same program since 2018 I want to say they kind of hit their stride where they actually 2017 they kind of had hem Butler and Alan Lazard Alan Lazard and Montgomery mitcher Mitch harer and they had you know we played a tough road game against them and they kind of introduced us to what Iowa State football is going to be for the next you know eight years as has been the last two years have been a downturn for Campbell's program you know they had really struggled two years ago obviously with the suspensions actually not before the suspensions but Decker's first first year I think they went 4-8 last year they were a seven and5 team but truly they didn't compete in a lot of games and didn't have any really big wins I think kanada State oak Oklahoma State were their best two wins but they bring back probably top five production level coming into this year so it's going to be really interesting to see how such a young team and probably they say Campbell's youngest team is going to transition into this year well I think with any middle middle tier college football team you're going to be sickal and especially when you don't they don't really have high-end offensive line Talent their skill is probably midd of the pack you mix those two things together and you're going to be good every three or four years I always been able to kind of break that cycle every so often but even for a a top 25 program that you'd probably put Iowa in it's still is cyclical but we might experience a more you know fundamental more sound Iowa State team than we have in the past simply because of that experience why why I think we can also lean towards this being a maybe a comfortable win I want to it's comfortable just cuz it's going to be shawk and there going be a lot of emotion involved but as you're moving into the late third early fourth you might see a team the Iowa team emerge that's just simply better yeah I think this is actually a great game to start breaking down is that line of scrimmage is going to be the kind of the the focus of every single game this year like honestly maybe Ohio State's the only team that's going to push our buttons along with Wisconsin on the line of scrimmage and that's been a micras of the Iowa State series under Campbell against every other Big 12 program other maybe against Texas Iowa state has an equal opportunity to move the offens and defensive lines the way they want to and at least be competitive and what separated Iowa in these last you know Series against Campbell is that the inability of Iowa State to score on the Red Zone and to punish Iowa on the ground because their system requires that they are a short passing game system but you put put their system in the third and N third and eight which they invariably will get to at some point in the game it's going to fall apart and it has on a consistent base against Iowa and so I don't expect that to change this year for the series I obviously Iowa State brings back an enormous offensive line their biggest ever they bring back a bunch of starts I think at least four starts maybe five on the offensive line but the way Iowa has recruited and developed our line defensive line for sure that just hasn't mattered we are the premier defensive line producers in the Midwest and if you don't win that Advantage the way these teams play of you know not allowing big plays and focusing on turnover margin the Run game is kind of the first part of that where if you can't run the ball then it's going to allow you then you're have you know more turnovers well I think everyone knows within a football football team when you are running with numbers so if you line up in the first play of the game and it's a a numbers advantage in the Box you have your inside Zone call that everyone knows in the book that this be audible to this if we get this look and if that goes for two that that goes for three the anxiety of your OC the anxiety of your QB everyone on the whole sideline knows that's not the outcome you wanted there and that's your jab that just he just slipped yeah and if they continue to slip that jab you can't really build up build a holistic offense out of not having inside Zone not out of having that jab and I think that's what a lot of teams are just going to experience this year is that we can line up and just Square you up and we're going to say okay our triangle of ABA where you're going Graves Yaya and Higgins M do that's where football is played a lot of people don't play football don't understand that like between guard Center guard and D tackle D tackle middle linebacker that's a whole game within itself and if that is a loss everything gets pushed out and pushed out and pushed out and now you're going to play into I was true strike this year where the way they developed their team is everything that happens to the flats these guys are bigger and stronger than you've seen in the spot pretty much much anywhere else in college football MH and then the the backside picture is the most sophisticated Zone you'll see where they all know exactly what their read is they can drop guys and they can raise guys you have no idea which which player's coming up which player's coming down and that whole equation is just a very rare one for young QBs to experience even teams who have had years and years Campbell PJ Fleck all these tenured coaches still struggle with that equation because it's not about drawing up really well done plays it's about just being the tougher team and Iowa spends August September October becoming the tougher team and then they put you in that equation they don't put you in the numbers equation they don't put you in who's got the faster guys they give you the numbers equation exactly and they say you better not just get four we're going to go five on six and it looks ugly yeah then everyone knows what the game is the rest of the time exactly both coordinators do yeah both you know both everyone on the field understands what's happening and that's they've done to Iowa State for almost of kts and he's had Stellar backs in Montgomery Bree Hall and it's still never really changed because you have to move the guys before they can run yeah and I think if you if you could Envision uh a loss this year of you know why that would happen is that because you have the same group offensively for Iowa State and Higgins Noel and Beck and their o line and the continuity they have of problem solving against this team and last year's game the result was not nearly as close as the game was Iowa was up 17 and put the game on Ice they allowed Iowa State to chew their own clock in the fourth quarter I mean you talking about seven first down conversions in the third and fourth quarter when they're up two scores like in the Iowa State crowd was kind of complaining that they weren't moving faster I would controlled in complete Game Coop and X don't run into each other the game ends in the mid third quarter and just in inability to be aggressive down the stretch Iowa have closed that game out made it seem closer but they were in complete control but now you have a def in a program that's a year older and Beck's skill and what he does best is short passing really quick release really knows where the ball's going even early in last year's game the first drive you know understood of what matchups he wants to attack and you saw it they would go trips right Higgins on the left solo receiver and attack Deshawn Lee in a one-on-one situation on a slap pass they did three times until Lee kind of broke it up they would put two tight tight ends on the field and then isolate one of uh linebackers Fischer against one of their stronger tight ends they have it brahmer coming back he's a good tight end Noel's a good slot Higgin a good deep ball guy they're going to know what they want to attack and with who I think that's the difference is when you're an older team you understand the strengths and weaknesses of your own players and then you have you can use that in your game plan that is the advantage I see this year for them why it won't be such a you know differentiate game in terms of 17 points in like the second half will that be enough I don't know but they have the starting point of I do think that they'll have success between the 20s until you get to the third and fourth quarter where we start learning how you're going to attack us we've seen the same formations and the same plays and then what it really comes down to the fourth quarter is just handing the ball off against a light box and running without being guessed and if you are guested you still run and I think that's where I don't see this changing because we they their line of scrimmage has never been stronger and under Campbell I don't think it ever will be stronger than Kirks I think they're just going to be consistently put into third and medium situations and Higgins Noel and brahmer just are not aead above the Iowa secondary and they showed it last year they had moments you know Higgins was able to abuse AE at the top routes now you're having a bigger guy out there in Neer if I if we were going into this game with Lee and there's going to be Leon Higgins in multiple jump ball situations I'd be pretty worried about it but since we upgraded in size at that position they're going to have to find somewhere else to go I think it's going to be Noel I think essentially every team that has a good slot rece this year is going to be where you attack and as we go farther into this breakdown I think that's what we're going to keep on fleshing out but I think we just just keep on breezing through just we can get up to all these teams what's your final score final score I think I'll go 276 I still I think it's a a a year where they have the ability to move the ball between the 20s our Corner play is going to be an issue early in the game but when it comes down to are you creative enough in your design on the goal line to confuse this defense no yeah do you have a player you can go to on the goal line that's going to you know get open no and we focus most of this breakdown on the off their offense versus our defense just do a quick one on their defense they bring back everybody again but there is not many NFL players in that Team Cooper their safety is probably the only one that I'm really you know kind of flashes on film their front seven was the worst they've had on a Campbell last year they were like 100th 110 10th and pass rush they don't really have the athletes they usually have in their front seven all those guys come back I don't care if it's Peterson and 23 yeah I think Peterson's 55 if those two guys are playing in C Gap or D Gap the entire game watch for power action action them watch for everything in our offense designed to come to those two guys they are not high level D1 football players they just were too small last and they it we were able to run power at them the entire game we didn't run power on anyone All Season besides them mhm I think they are a little bit light in the ass at D end and returning those guys you know yeah you're the you're returning a lot of players I don't care with that group yeah that that's we're going to keep on attacking you in that fashion they might get then overly aggressive in the Run game I think that's going to be a premier thing for them and they might actually end up employing what a lot of teams do against us where it's like hey just line up and Blitz them and play press man out wide they don't have the bodies outside so we'll see if they actually change their system but yeah yeah I think I'll go with uh 2130 I think Iowa takes control two score lead you know maybe a 10-point lead at some point in the second half and kind of Co not Coast a victory but seems like they have it in hand the fourth quarter we are thrilled to announce a new sponsor of the ANF podcast next time you're looking for an all-inclusive Beach vacation consider Via poad Del Soul or via Puerto Escondido both of which Overlook the Pacific Ocean in okatal Costa Rica providing an exceptional all-inclusive experience for your family and friends and and if you mention the ANF podcast when booking you'll get 5% off your stay visit their website linked down below for more information or to reserve your trip today next uh critical game we're going to discuss is the Minnesota game and it's honestly it's it's probably the hardest Road game of our season and it's it's weird to break that down that at Minnesota is probably other than Ohio State obviously it's but your second hardest Road game for this year yeah they obviously had aan leave their team uh they they're QB room right now doesn't have a single P5 D1 start Hosmer who they brought in or brasmer brasmer brosmer it's disrespectful say his name wrong I'm glad I did uh brosmer came in from New Hampshire watched a lot of his film he had actually surprising like really good receiver play for him I think that allowed him to put more higher numbers than he did he's got that kind of middle Tier 15 to 20 yard throw that you see with Tanner Morgan he seems to be an on time QB but he looks a little clunky he looks a little mechanical especially in his dropbacks I didn't see anything special from him from the athletic perspective which I really look for against teams that we play with a because we just don't account for QBs in the in the Run game and if you can continually uh hit that jab that's something we've actually struggled with in the past they don't have super high-end receiver play but it's good enough to at least move the ball on us Jackson's a real player he's he's high-end in my opinion I think there was enough plays last year against even watching against Michigan State Nebraska he can make plays I I don't think it's a a differentiator between Iowa just given the secondary we have but if you just look at the scope of the Big 10 I would rate him as the top above average top eight top five receiver in the Big 10 I don't know if I'll go as high as top five but he's he's a good player yeah but where we really struggle is when you put that NFL NFL receiver on the field yeah um old lines they're going to be dominant and that's really where they've been successful against Iowa these past couple years is they can line up and we we have the invitation of run your inside Zone and they go okay we'll take that for six yeah and when they have especially when they're going to be at home this year and you're not going to have the same energy in the room for a stopping the run and you're going to have the o line play with a little more confidence being a little more on time not having snap count issues you're likely going to see them run the ball fairly well between the 20s where the system has fallen apart has been within the Red Zone against us I can't remember the last time they scored a Red Zone touchdown against us it's been it's been a long time yeah and I I guess I guess Mo had one early the first half of two years GES game yeah it's like seven yards out yeah but that might be the first one in you know a couple years yeah and I think just evaluating even brasmer too I think it's hard to Discount his film in a way he doesn't he's obviously like 61 he's not a very athletic guy he'll be able Scramble for third down so they're not going to run him but he like when you watch him he's an accurate guy over the middle and you can watching completions you're you're trying to but you're trying to replicate Tanner Morgan which is what they should be doing they should Athan was not the F fit for their system they're trying to throw 10 yard inss eight yard Slants 15 yard floating uh post everything towards you know between the hashes and they found the guy to do it like he's got a good motion if he was honestly on Iowa this year as our backup QB you know I wouldn't take him over Cade but if he was like the next inline guy for even next year I like this is what I would want I want this point guard type of quarterback to run our offense he doesn't Scream the you know van djk type of arm or other QBs but he has the ability just to run an offense that's going to run the ball for 200 yards a game and that's what I think he he marries well with it where I don't think I want to talk down about him because I think he actually you know if he throws 14 times a game he might go 12 or 14 and it's going be one of those like Tanner Morgan not 2019 Tanner Morgan but 2021 22 Tanner Morgan where he kind of more threw for 50 but it was like he only had two incompletions like I I just don't see the arm strength that is going to put the fear within I defense I think we're going to play and we just defend over the middle of the field so well that I'm I'm just talking about our game with them yeah if you're going to rely on 15 yard throws on the Middle Field against Iowa that's a real problem and why aan you know he really failed to throw the ball outside the numbers last year was actually really poor effort he essentially broke his brain after that game how many balls he put in the dirt but he had at least the capability to put the ball outside the numbers which makes Iowa think for a moment if you don't have that possibility then unless they're running for 250 in this game 200 and we make some turnovers I feel very comfortable with putting brasmer versus uh Iowa yeah I think another thing they did in the the offseason too was obviously Darius Taylor's he has a chance to be all big 10 this year I think he flashed in some games as a freshman it'll be interesting he stay healthy I mean I think he had two separate injuries last year and PJ is no known for running his running backs into the dirt like if you're the number one you're getting 30 carries and you're getting 30 even when we're up by two scores he's not going to save your legs he's trying to get stats but then they bring in three former starters from D1 programs and that type of when you kind of Envision their offense they don't have the receiver skills or tight ends that's going to push our buttons but they're going to try to run the ball 35 times at home and they have plenty of backs and they have the old line to do it so there's a there is a concern there especially being on the road that they could just naturally dragg you into the game they've dragged you into the last six years where it's going to be a really short game they're not going to turn the ball over they're not going to commit peles and their defense is so predicated on stopping the run it's we're not going to have the ability to naturally drive against them more than maybe three times well I think the the Crux of the equation will be how well does cade Lee Caleb play against Minnesota's pass defense when we've had success against s scored had a high point totals it's always in the passing game because they build their entire defense on stop and the run and they put their secondaries on the island the reason that fell apart last year is because you had potentially the worst passing game in FBS history um but I think early in the season less worried about having injuries at that time Lee Caleb and Cade you those three guys should make easy work of the Minnesota secondary in a manner and there are guys in the second like gu is good but they really have a lot of question marks elsewhere and they just put so much on their plate I think we're going to be a very aggressive team against them I think you're going to see 65 70% pass early on especially in the first half unless we take a quick lead and I also think we're going to see a lot of canned plays because any team that any Iowa fan knows we save a fair amount for this game Kirk has Minnesota at least two or three on its highest priority wins of the Season you always see somewhat of trick plays you definitely see caned plays for the system I think the reason it works really well against Minnesota is because they uh trust so much in their their defensive back field well I think the the big change too on their defensive side of the ball is that they have a new coordinator coming in they obviously lose Rossi to Michigan State and Rossi really had simplified them to be a manfocused defense but in the same way Iowa focused on defense of having very limited plays not focused on getting negative plays but stopping the the explosive plays it'll be interesting it sounds like this coordinator is going to be more of a a Blitzer more of trying to create turnovers and that doesn't really marry with what PJ has had success with I mean he he fired his first defensive coordinator for that very reason who was trying to force turnovers to become more of a a Phil Parker type of defense and if he doesn't you know marry that you know that defense then I could see us having even explosive Run game uh place where you just you Blitz into the wrong area you get walled down and you have an opportunity to score so it'll be interesting how with the change in coordinators if PJ's philosophy of how he wants to play defense still lives on where you're just trying to create long drives and execution over time or more of like a Lovey Smith type where you're just you're hoping for a strip sack you're hoping for a tip pass you're hoping for that confusing defense nerv QB and that's what Rossy watch every game first and second down same play every time get you into a third and four all were Dro an eight all we B Blitz and nine or like Blitz and eight and it just was impossible to guess what he was going to do on third down because it looked like his first and second down just like Phil would do and it'll be interesting how this new guy kind of approaches defense from Minnesota well it sounds like they might be moving to a 335 set which is going to be interesting because their dline is built so big if they're going to have those quicker linebackers and then I think really the strength of their team right now is their D line so you're taking guys those guys off the field to put more speed on the field that might be a benefit for playing everyone besides Iowa but we might be salivated on the opportunity to play only three guys above 270 yeah and that's yeah it's it's for sure their strength their dline they go a deep of guys that have been in the program for a long time they've how iow was built out their defensive line to be a really you know crazy group in that second deep like you look at Minnesota's too deep they've done the same way getting through transfers developing guys for four years they got plenty of bodies and their linebacking room is pretty similar this year too so what's your final prediction for the game I will go 16 to 10 I think it's going to be a very ugly game but I think if I takes control early that Minnesota's going to really struggle to move the ball I I they do have size Advantage at DN which is my one worry but putting the hands in the putting the ball in the hands of Jackson Higgins Castro schy and X I feel very comfortable with us stopping the run over the long period of time yeah I think this is the you have the first time in a long time Iowa has a chip in this game and when you don't have a chip in game you know you're the team with seven straight wins it's hard to always get up to start games maybe not get start games but maybe the first and second quarter where any play happens you still have to kind of keep your composure but you know both teams are very understanding of what happened last year both programs are and Minnesota they can't get up for this game this year in my opinion like the emotions on our side which is rare for this series because they understand that there's a group of 100 psychos the psych most psycho team you play every year is now pissed you know they're coming up to Minneapolis angry and wanting to hurt you and I don't know if Minnesota can channel that to try to you know replicate that type of energy we're going to have and it's kind of like Iowa State Iowa going to Iowa State last year it's like you think you guys actually are a better team than us like we fumble on the one inch line we're going to show this as a fluke now we're going to show it's a fluke and if you have a momentum play or a big play in the first half a pick a strip a touchdown over 50 yards and you can feel that you know Iowa chant come in you feel that gohawks CH come in to this game I could see it being it's kind of a yeah you thought you were you broke the streak but that wasn't a streak breaker yeah now it's 10 yeah Big Brother's still here yeah and that's a situation I think it could be and I think it will be a similar game you're say I think it's going to be 20 to 13 just similar Iowa State game where you know I think we our skill and the depth of our offense actually this year with the amount of running backs and tight ends receivers we have that we can use against this defense we'll come in early in the game I think we'll have some well scripted plays as you mentioned and I I think they're they're often still struggled last year with this exact same personnel with a just a different QB and I don't think I think they took a step down in QB I truly do I I think Athan had a lot more in the arm department and that that's where I I Look to just arm strength purely when you're playing Iowa football because you have to put the ball on the line outside the numbers if you can't make that throw the entire game is going to get really difficult unless you have like an Isaiah Washington that pad could use where he's the fastest player on the field and he's played in the NFL over the middle if you don't have that it's going to be a tough day for you yeah next game Ohio State then yep well when you break down Ohio State and you look at you know their weaknesses you're trying to find a hole in their team you look at their defense first which is a top five unit last year they bring back essentially everyone back it's like nine returning starts maybe 10 even MH they add in Caleb DS from Ohio from Alabama it's going to be an unreal unit obviously their coordinators you know world class we're going to have a really hard time scoring against this team especially on the road especially when you're not going to get any calls like there's a reality when Iowa goes on the road to Michigan and Ohio State and Penn State the refs aren't on our side you're not going to get the pi you're not g to get that holding call you might get it once a game to keep it within the touchdown but you're not getting early in the game but where you actually I see the weakness of this team is their transfer QB they brought in like you watch will Howard and he reminds me of a little bit of Graham MZ in terms of his obviously 64230 he can run he's a really talented guy but his motion is a little funky and you look at his stats he's 60% he's under 60% completion on his career he played four years off and on at K State and he got beat out by a retri freshman that's going to be a Heisman Contender at K State so he couldn't even start at K State so Ohio State they maybe got the best QB in the portal but they didn't get the guy they wanted this is not a St this is not a fields and when they don't have their QB who's going to just be the best Terrell Pryor Braxton Miller the best athlete in the field best player in the field you open you crack that door a little bit wider for Iowa and I think that's the situation we are in this year because their the rest of their Supporting Cast was only a top 45 offense last year based on their offensive line and the Run game which kind of both struggled to run the ball last year with the same Personnel obviously that junkins in but it just seems like there's like a a more of a sliver of Hope in this game there has been in year year prior going to these kind of bigname opponents on the road yeah that was my first takeaway when I watched him I was like this is just not what we usually see from Ohio State QB and while that doesn't mean you're going to go out and win the game or even you know compete within a a score I think if I was going to look at this as success trying to keep it within two scores in the third quarter is where you should be but but I also see a realm where their run game isn't you know acting as a machine and then you have to rely on Howard against you know a really good secondary MH and I they don't really have that like Surefire first round receiver this year I'm sure there's some guy laying in weight that's going to be highed it's going to be the most talented receiver Court we play all year but why this is always usually counted as an auto loss when you go play Ohio state is because of their QB and receiver Talent those are both you know I would just say above average will Howard has some insane Heisman odds but just because he plays I would say their receivers are not above average I'd say they're Elite this I'd say they are but it's it's not to the level where you're playing like Garrett Wilson and jiga ol on one team where you have three first rounders yeah like you might have three NFL draft picks in the top three rounds but it's not that overwhelming Force where you're just going to back up until you get to the Red Zone and hope for the best and really we saw Iowa compete in 2022 with a horrible offense but the defense showed up for the first half and actually made things really tough on Ohio State because they are a team that is built around being explosive they don't really know how to be patient and that that game we're talking about where you have to line up in a shock and a handoff against inside Zone because you have numbers isn't very fun for Ohio State to do because they don't want to play that game they don't want to play the six possession game where you can make one play and be in it they want to Speed the game up they want to make plays they want to recruit receivers and QBs as we've talked about in the past so when you can make a team that wants to be explosive be patient and play outside their normal selves where Ohio State probably I bet nine to 10 games this year is going to see predominantly man-to-man teams where all the action is occurring at 10 to 12 yards and if their team guy wins at 10 to 12 yards they go for 60 MH against Iowa everything happens between yards one and seven and it happens one and seven over and over again it's going to usually require 10 plays to action against that level of discipline and focus and all that is tied into being a consistent ontime team mhm they really only do probably against Penn State Michigan you know and that's only usually in the first half because eventually Michigan and Penn State Line up in press man and make you throw but that that patience and it breeds so much anxiety within OC's that if you get these really high level teams in that Quagmire of a game are they going to be able to you know blow you out of the water in the fourth if they just feel out of sorts the whole time yeah I would push back the only thing I would push back on is just that Chip Kelly is now their OC and Chip Kelly's kind of number one thing is running the ball like it's kind of what he Prides himself in it's maybe why he was hiring maybe what him sold himself on maybe watching Ohio State Games we've struggled watching them in the past because you can tell they just they want to be explosive they don't want to drive the field length the field they want they get lazy they get kind of impatient Kelly is kind of pride of himself always with playing that numbers game and with the backs they have if he they do play the numbers game they don't you know get obsessed with trying to have 45 attempts in the passing game to recruit these quarterbacks and receivers we're going to have a really hard time stopping those backs the transfer from Old Miss is a great player like he I think his comparison for him would be Kareem hunt and he's gonna have that kind of same profile in the NFL and he's going to go to the NFL pretty easily trayon Henderson is it's been a weird kind of story like obviously I think his first game of his career at Minnesota he had like a 70- yard touchdown everyone's like this is the fivar from Texas he's going to be a pro in three years and be a first round pick and he's just never really done it you know injuries been beat out by other guys but having two of those guys with Kelly it concerns me where they might get very comfortable just going for six and they returned four stars in the o line it just depends what that decision is do they Embrace that run game as they need to against us because we will give it to them the entire game we saw at Penn State this year when we're the worst team on the road against a premier program we wanted to drag you to the fourth and we want to drag you into 85 yard drives on 12th plays even if we do have some advantages in the secondary we we're going to just back up and so it all kind of comes down to that decision- making well hopefully we just don't make the early mistak that's we pointed out in the past against these top teams we seem to always have a second quarter you know mess up whether it's a punt Hitting off someone's back a punt return against Michigan in the Big 10 title game the reason this style has fallen apart recently is because of uncharacteristic you know fa paw yeah uh but I think we're going to see an alltime shell offense out of Iowa as they attack this Ohio State Defense you could go through you know nine of their guys are going to be NFL draft picks easily mhm uh but what you can do when you're built like Iowa and you're the tough guy team is you can line up in 22 Personnel throw two tight ends on the field throw your fullback on the field and now you're making them play big and their big players are still good but it's not the level of difference that uh you would see from our receiver Talent against their DBS yeah and that also then feeds into the shorter game and if this if this game's going to be competitive it's going to have to be a masterful special teams game from Iowa it's going to have to be a masterful day from their defense red and then the true stars on Iowa's offense are going to have to play lights out but there's enough NFL Talent on Iowa's offense between K Lea and Caleb that I truly believe against one of one against Ohio State players they have a chance to be effective it's not going to be large plays but staying on time making a couple first downs getting to the 50 executing that well executed punt yeah it's always going to be equation for I against these good teams but it's why they had that in their bag and you you bring up two great points like last year against Penn State and last year against Michigan and it's been kind of a string of games we just have just blown these opportunities kind of proved the idea of why iow plays the way we do is through just massive special team issues or turnovers like I think even going back to the 2019 game against M Michigan on the road which is a huge game for the our program we fumbled on the very first play of the game on a draw to Mai I think we're have the opportunity like obviously I think turnovers are going to happen if they're going to happen it's not no one on this Personnel is going to change the turnovers and if we can just relax in these big games but I think this offense has an opportunity to get first downs and Kade being in this game really helps us you think about a a short passing game QB who can make really quick decisions and understand mismatches with Lee and maybe a stranga May in the running game you just or the running backs in the passing game you know you have a clear out where you have a running back in a one-on-one situation he makes a quick decision to get a pick up a first down first downs are going to be be vital to keeping our defense locked into this game and keeping it tight because you have to drag this team to the fourth quarter even if you're down by seven if it's 12 minutes left in the game and we get a field goal to go down by four with you know eight minutes left in the game then it flips and we've seen the flips happen in our programs history 2021 Penn State instantly when we took a lead or made it a little bit closer it felt like no way we're going to lose like 2008 Penn State 2006 16 Michigan the worst team 2017 Penn State even the one we didn't win when the worst team starts making plays it kind of snowballs late and we haven't had the opportunity to be the worst team kind of making that crazy comeback and that those crazy plays where the better team gets tight and I really just want to see it happen this year at least give us the opportunity where this type of style play is it makes sense to play these top teams with well I I think it's not an auto loss and I think that's the key part we're going to break out our prediction for the whole season yeah is you you're at like 15% maybe 10% chance in comparison you usually be like a 2% chance and that's because of how he broke at will Howard yeah just he's not this Surefire first rounder he's not maybe even a top four round QB I don't think he's going to get I think he might get drafted in the NFL he will never play snap in the NFL in my opinion like he's not that level and then then with that equation you're playing an Iowa defense that has you know seven eight NFL guys playing yeah all right think it's time what's your final prediction for it 35 nothing no I think uh I think they'll struggle to score I think they'll be like a 27 uh 17 game oh that's a lot of points I think we're going to have moderate success that could be a late touchdown too yeah I think it's a late touchdown yeah I think it I mentioned 20% 15% chance of winning this game you have to remember like our all line is going to show up with you know five seniors I think seven guys that are seniors it just takes one break yeah I think it just takes one break for this team to get rolling for everyone to relax for us to kind of like like are we going to do this you've experienced running back play yeah you have experienced receiver play everyone's been around each other for a while too I'll go I'll go 2710 in the same kind of line I think maybe we score a touchdown in the first half make it a little interesting but I think what the real concern is our defense is just going to have an overwhelming amount of defensive line Talent it's the the line is going to disappear every play yeah like it's going to be how quick can you get the ball out can that guy break a tackle after he gets out they're just going to keep on playing that over and Kate's have to play this is if you want to Circle a game where yeah if you can I think Minnesota's the first game where you Circle Kate can start changing his narrative about being NFL and like having a different like kind of view of himself and the fan base to view him differently Minnesota's that first step because he's gonna have to throw in that game the second game is this game if Cade can have a performance where he can drag Iowa into a fourth quarter game against Iowa State Ohio State and he knows this too NFL Scouts start going oh it's Pro style QB you know you know he won uh Big 10 title in beat Ohio State of Michigan you know it it it can flip them quickly to have it's G be a nationally televised game like I think this is a a turning point for his career possibly certain hopefully he can just come with a healthy receiver base because I think he has all the talent within him yeah all right so now Washington we are happy to announce a new sponsor for the ANF podcast the ANF podcast is sponsored by ey Surgeons Associates proudly serving Eastern Iowa and Western Illinois for all your eye care needs for over 40 years yeah is it was yeah it's a hilarious it's just a new schedule you bring in the Pack 12 teams you go from a tough road game against Minnesota tough road game against Ohio State oh here's Washington at home so they're a completely new program uh whole whole uh starting lineup cleared out on both sides the ball new OC new head coach new DC uh brought in Will Rogers from Mississippi state had a really prolific SEC career we watched some tape on him over the past couple days how I was talking about those QBs with weaker arm talents yes you he has got great ball placement yes he's an athlete gu he's won a lot of games within the SEC he doesn't scare me from uh how are we going to handle this guy it's just he might make enough plays to win but it's not going to be this overwhelming effort where oh wow that QB just kill us today yeah I think the one concern with him is that his experience in back toback years he had over 8,000 yards passing and com combined combined yeah in two in two like in two years like combined he had 8,000 yards passing and and the simplistic looks that Iowa gives on a daily B you know a Down by down bases obviously we execute him very well and we can beat multiple if you give him a little bit of skill Talent which it feels like they've brought it in the transfer portal they brought in some guys that have been former four stars and had decent careers at other schools I could see it you know in a four-wide situation fourward receivers on the field where he can drive the field you know three or four times not put him you know touchdowns but put him in field goal range and maybe a one-on-one ball I definitely that and I think uh where my confidence in Iowa comes in is because of our longevity you know you have guys on the team that have started three or four years in the defensive back field you have coaches that have taught this position or system for 20 some odd years um I think that shows up in these new college football programs that emerge every year and why I always had sustained success over the last 20 years in Kirks 10 years because he keeps his continuity together so when you play Iowa you don't have familiarity how Iowa lines up is on especially on defense is we give you the same look over and over and over again and you have to run your different iterations of how you beat that system over and over and over again you're playing then a very sophisticated zone defense on the opposite side who knows where they're going to be attacked essentially your three or four ways that you can attack them and how they can counter is just more fisticated than how you can counter it because you've just been teaching these guys for about six months M and I think that's truly where the separation occurs why you see Iowa win late game while you see Iowa be oddly passive down three down six you know giving ground wild tied in a game is because they know they have the trump card at the end and that teaching and that belief they have in their system is what consistently shows up and then wins the game late is because they can show you the same picture 12 different times but then they have that 13th reveal and that's what most teams can offer because they don't have the depth of knowledge they don't have the player continuity the coaching continuity all that and this team I mean Washington's almost an impossible team to break down other than their quarterback play they're returning one starter out of 22 uh it's completely new staff they brought in some you know Steve belich our defensive coordinator uh Jed fish did a great job at Arizona but the continuity issue they're going to have of bringing in you know a a bunch of have just never worked together and trying to put together an offense that makes sense they'll have flashes but I think what you made a great point of is like throughout a course of a game continuity and Longevity will take effect especially halftime adjustments you got think of Iowa knows exactly the responses they want to make on the defensive side to attack this offense will Washington have that enough discussions amongst themselves you know over the next 6 months to even create a game plan that you know could reach out to have that many counters and I think think that's that's where you see programs like UCLA Washington and Michigan State we going to be playing this year they're all going to be in their infancy and I don't remember the last time Iowa lost to a first year program Purdue yeah Purdue in 20 16 yeah that probably it so there's been one opportunity where we've lost to and it's braah has had the best idea of all time he we we've never been happier to see a coach leave the Big 10 than Jeff Bram braam was he understood how to make the game a one-on-one game well I think what he did the best and what I actually want to talk about today is teams that have coached their guys in a way that they can execute the high level ex high level skill that's required to beat Iowa and that's what Phil knows is most teams play man-to-man press most teams are playing these very simplistic aggressive teams yeah and then you finally have to step into a game where the defense is thinking against you yeah and they don't know how to handle it they don't that there isn't things just revealed to them they have to think through the problems and thinking through the problems in a high stress environment you're in King Stadium you're nervous you're not that smart you're 21 it always ends up being pill yeah so what do you have for I think that's there's not much to break down for Washington like we we uh don't think the quarterback's that highend and they're going to have off they're going to have skill talent but I think the continuity is what fall short yeah they've been a top 15 program for the last 10 years like every year Washington's you know they're making playoff runs they've been really you know five exactly they will they will be a good team in probably a year from now but to be have that quick of a turnaround against a team like Iowa I I think we'll win 247 yeah maybe 2410 yeah I I think the offense will have success and I think they their their offense will really struggle to put the pieces together yeah all right let's move on to the next game Michigan State uh very similar situation new program uh obviously hit the transfer portal and bride in a real a top 50 QB in child uh is one of those situations where we we had to watch like seven or eight QBs this year and you kept on feeling good about who we were going to play in terms of van djk and brasmer and you know majority of the QBs we reviewed but then you threw on his film and it felt like a different story and it felt like a familiar story of how you beat Iowa which is with a just a freaky QB yeah you just don't we don't account for the QB in the Run game so if you can put a Dynamic Athlete out there who can get into space make guys miss just getting all the hidden yardage in football uh Iowa is a very fast defense this year faster than the usually are especially at D end uh at corner I think they're going to tackle really well so these guys aren't going to be as dangerous as they used to be in the past where you'd see like I would you know' 08 Iowa play these spread QBs but uh when I watch this film it just I just got kind of sick to my stomach it's like man you put him on the edge 15 times with our players mhm this isn't a very good team but it's going to end up being a very good difficult game because of him alone and they have a very good running back to pair with him so if you have guys going both directions who have talent uh I think the odds of them staying in a close game with Iowa is going to be better than most people think just because they wi to on being a new team and struggling the year prior M but QB is the most important uh position on the team and they probably had the best player uh on the field on the field yeah and they oddly enough with a a new head coach in the transfer portal they return like 10 starters on defense so a defense that struggled last year obviously they were pretty poor on both sides of the ball they're going to have a good amount of veterans on the defensive and then Michigan State's recruited at a top 35 clip for you know last 20 years through Dan Antonio always had talented players especially on the defensive side of the ball I think we'll expect another a team that will flash with a few NFL players and obviously uh is it holiday middle linebacker it's they have enough talent that they can get stops against us especially on the road and then you add in this kind of dynamic quarterback it could be one of those kind of trap games where you could be a one loss team looking forward to playing rank like 12th in the country at the time right playing yeah Wisconsin coming up and a few other big games and you just kind of overlook this game and this head coach he's he's won with lesser Talent his entire career like at least last like five years at Oregon State know he's Pack 12 Coach of the Year in 2022 he's done it with having the worst team in probably half his games you know generally probably six games he plays a year with Oregon State probably his lesser Talent he knows how to create a style of play even in his first year with that type of quarterback I think he could drag us into a game very quickly understanding that if we just punt it deep and play defense and let this guy play on offense we can make this a one- score game very quickly yeah and again our hope is that uh they don't have enough iterations to complicate things y you know they're going to be a first year program but you're starting to get into that late six or seven game Mark where they're starting to become more familiar with themselves they know what makes them good what makes them bad yeah they can start adjusting in kind so it's almost not a first year program and I think the reason this schedule ends up being as scary is because you have these just randomly thrown in Road games with middle tier teams where if you put together a special start you're going to be a rank team and you're going to draw some attendance so you know Michigan State might show up UCLA might show up with their crowd Maryland might even show up I think when we played them when we were six and0 that one year they had Us sell out for about a quarter and a half until they were down by 30 so that's uh an issue that might complicate itself hopefully the inverse occurs where you have these teams start poor and then they don't have the environment that usually would for when Iowa goes in the road yeah I think you make a great Point too about just the odd Road games we have this year I think it's just the fact that you don't play Purdue and you don't play the Ali this year and thus you like enter this world of like teams you haven't scouted for the last 10 years and like really know their personnel their coaching staff and it it's going to be interesting how Kirk adapts to it you know you have to go to the West Coast where you always struggle you have to go out the East Coast you have to play Michigan State in the middle of the Season where you haven't you've played them like twice in the last like seven years and it just allows us to see how Iowa can perform with the talent we have against these programs that can recruit the coast and can recruit Michigan do we still have an advantage over them just based on our continuity or is that that going to creep up again where hey you know we're not preparing for these teams very well and their personnel is actually not much worse than ours we don't recruit at a top 15 level clip we recruited at a top 30 and now we're an equal ball game with these guys and we don't know every one of their plays we don't know how their coordinators behave and they could get really interested and I think this game is going to highlight how talented this team is because you're going to have to make some talented plays you're not going to be able to sleep walk through this game well I think it's a good point to good time to highlight our depth concerns about the offense too um you can't have a similar offensive cataclysm that you had last year and expect to go win all these difficult Road games everyone's got a QB now everyone's got you know a new upside start coach you're not running into these down Tron programs that you used to see in the Big 10 West uh if you're going to throw out a horrible offense again you can't just rely on your defense and special teams to carry you through because these teams will score eventually these these defenses will make you make plays against you and truly this the success of the Season depends upon keeping your top three or four offensive players healthy and and not necessarily healthy for every game but we can't lose them for longer than two or three game stretches all right what do you got for this game I will say 27 to 20 I think they're going to have a lot of success with their QB I think he's outside of Ohio State I'm most worried about what he presents from maybe Nebraska too I got 272 24 that it's me a really close game I think it's going be one of those like you're sweating out a fourth quarter drive on either side of the bowl Y for the win so next game would be Northwest Western uh they return a ton of offensive skill Talent think they have even a lot of continuity back on defense and their offensive line too I think they break it bring back at least three starters uh who is their QB they brought in from the transfer he Mike right Mike right he's a vanderbelt transfer yep it's difficult to talk down to this team because no matter what situation they're in how hard they've how poor of a season they've had how good of a season they had no matter what they're going to be in the competitive game against Iowa because they base their uh selection process around intelligence if you can provoke approach Iowa's scheme with intelligence and thinking at worst you're going to be in a fourth quarter ball game with him yeah you know you could it's really going to come down to how the uh the ball bounces I don't think we're going to be you know head above them from an offens perspective where we can score outscore them and their offense obviously had like sustained success against us last year even without really having that many good players it it had didn't have a lot of success in the first half in the second half late in the game they kind of found back toback drives moving the ball they're Mike Wright their quarterback they bring in I don't actually expect him to start when we play him I think they're they bring another Jake La I think is their backup QB I expect him to start Mike Wright looks like one of those guys where you're in Camp and he just runs around and makes a bunch of plays and you have a hard time keeping out the field because you can see easy first downs for a defensive minded team he can't throw like his stats reflect that you throw in the film it's a bad motion it's in accurate slow I think by the time we play him I think they'll be more of a traditional Power Pro style set the issue is with them you play a defense that's playing identical to you they're trying to play two high safeties I think they were top five in amount of explosive plays they allowed similar to us they were bottom five in negative plays given which is just like us so you're going to play in this really long game no matter what they build everyone really big and they recruit intelligent guys as you mentioned it's hard to not Envision this game being 1713 or 13 to7 and I don't know if we're going to be aggressive enough on offense I don't know if be healthy enough on offense to really exploit them but I see a game around that score and usually within Kut the Northwestern game is just a little sleepy too you're not getting the big game environment there's expectations you're going to win the game and that just creates a different K environment as a whole you're not getting the loud third Downs you're not getting the noise on first and second uh it just builds a sleepy atmosphere and I think that's our fear is that this could be one of that middle of the season games where if you're walking a little hurt you're underestimating this team it could end up being a real problem yeah I think yeah I'd go with a prediction of 13 to seven I think it's going to be bunch of kids at the game it's one of those weird rivalry games for Northwestern is not one for us we don't consider them a rival but they consider us one and if you don't lack you lack emotion in this type of game in the middle of the season I get really close I'm going to go 13-7 I'll go 20 to 10 I I think we'll have again this is all kind of building off the same point but I truly believe in Kade and Lee I think all these teams are going to struggle to stop them and hopefully we see some Run game emerge as well hopefully start getting later in the year yeah starting to get later in the year too yeah and you have experienced backs we haven't had experienced backs in a long time mhm it's time to talk about Wisconsin up next yep so we kind of called them last year we kind of called their programs Bluff we said the way they're playing offense you know they're trying to be like Ohio state they're trying to recruit receivers they're trying to recruit quarterbacks and it played out just like that against us they threw the ball 40 times if they gave the ball to brillan Allen 40 times in that game they walk to a victory in the fourth quarter they just refused to run the ball on like a consistent basis and it it screwed him and the reason why you do that the reason why you kind of think about recruiting while you're playing a game and not just think about winning is because you can bring in talented quarterbacks and receivers and I think they've missed again if their goal is to bring in you know a top five QB or top 15 QB they missed again like van dijk is he's a good QB like he was really heralded two years ago at Miami he kind of floundered the last two years and got benched this year at a program that's probably a little bit lesser than you maybe equal to you so you're bringing in a guy that's like you don't want to he's not going to play in the NFL he's not going to compete against these high teams but now you're in the system that requires him to throw the ball 40 times 30 times and unless they make that adjustment to like going back into like we're an office Line running back and tight end based team there's a reason why their win total is like 5 and a half six and a half like they they don't really make sense right now and they're going to have to make that adjustment yeah I think my fear with them is that they're going to have a really talented offens of line and 100% we talk about learning from their mistakes watching back the film just they're impatience when it came to wanting to try and score from 30 yards out wanting to try and score from 25 yards out wanting to throw the Deep ball on their own side of the field you have to get that outside your brain when you're playing Iowa because you're just not going to catch us mhm our first uh rule is just Do no harm do not allow the big play that's you're not going to slip one bias on first and second if they can then imply that to staying on schedule I think van dijk actually offers some us some problems because of his arm strength he's going to have the outside outside the numbers available to him they have highend receiver play um he's a decent Runner himself so we talk about that Isola QB run he's a big enough guy to take the hits and they're not going to be afraid about moving him off C and D Gap I see this almost moving more into a 50-50 game because of that fact and that they have a good defense I don't really see where our advantage lies I see them actually as very similar to us where yeah they're going to have kind of a medium offense with a good defense and when you have that familiarity now coming back on round two against them you might see what Iowa State employed in 2022 where it's like we just take three every single play and we keep on moving on we're going to get that outside our brain that we need to score quick we need to have explosive plays we're just going to take what this team gives us and I think they might be able to to actually take it with their o line yeah and I think that's where my prediction lies too I think I don't see their defense as the elite unit used to be we we were unfortunate last year to have Deacon and Eric all deakon play and Eric all get hurt in the first like third drive and with when they actually didn't move up into an eight-man Nan box we ran the ball well and I actually expect us to run the ball not for 200 yards but maybe 130 against this defense and they're kind of more of a secondary B based team and they're they're trying to play fast they're trying to be you know quick around the ball and be a blitz and show multiple sets it's not really how you want to play Iowa you kind of want to square us up how Minnesota does and how the Ali do but I think the issue in this game and why it turns into a 50-50 game is that this is one of the very few programs that can be better on the offensive line than us in terms of our defensive line and last year even with how strong our defensive line was they blocked us and they got to the third level a lot and Lucy's not Allen he's not the NFL talent that Allen was but he's not you know he's still a B plus a minus type of back that's going to have a shot at the third down back in the NFL and I think that's what differentiates this game is that you get into the third and fourth quarter and you know we're playing maybe have only two D tackles this where d-tackle depth might come into an issue and I I still think they might have a little better of an idea how to score against us than we will against them I think they have the opportunity to just kind of fill the box and play man on the back end and I don't know what our solution will be against them that will put us in a better situation late in the game yeah you said what they're like unless they just throw the ball like I mentioned like unless they don't commit to that run game and their strength to this game it's kind of almost like they're they kind of have to coach themselves out of this game because I think just on a Personnel basis they're a little better definitely and I think we're going to get into this as like we go through every game but the development of a run game is going to be just so important for Iowa as the season goes along we've done Personnel breakdown on the old line in the running back room but hopefully having a jab in the passing attack having a threat in the passing tack is going to lighten these boxes against them MH as you mentioned we saw success within the running game it's Wisconsin hopefully we'll see more against like the likes of Nebraska as well as we get into that uh but that's where this as we get later into the season having that run game really develop and flourish is how this game moves from 5050 into like a 60 40 7030 split mhm you want to do predictions on it though yeah I think it's maybe go more detail like they bring back majority of their skill their tight end last year were true freshman they bring back now they're retro freshman sophomores Pauling is we knew he was good going in the last year's game he's really freaking good like he's still goingon to be the focus of their team BR he's the top skill player we play outside of Ohio State's guys yeah he can really go Bryson Green a year back another very strong player they're going to have another Bevy of like two or three receivers that can make plays I just with that feeling that their old line is just going to be the differentiator in this this is actually where I don't know for sure we're going to lose this is our second loss but between Iowa State Minnesota Wisconsin Nebraska the four rivalry games I feel like all four of those teams have improved this year just you know given the nature of their personnel and you know being secondy year programs for Wisconsin Nebraska I have a loss for this game I can see to beat any of those four teams just because you be kind of flipping too many coins and I'd go with Wisconsin 17 to 16 in a close game late I'll take a win on this one just because it's at home I think it's a at best it's 5050 I think the experience in the defense is really going to make it difficult on him uh yeah I'll say a win in 2016 nice all right next another Trap game on the schedule for us at UCLA so this is actually where I have our loss I think late in the season if we're going to go on the run that I think we are where it's going to be you know 7-1 8 And1 at this point in the season uh when I watched filming them they just looked like a complete team M you know garbage is actually a very good QB he seems to make the right decision a lot of the time have highend receiver Talent have highend o line play ran the ball well last year don't I do they bring them back a lot on defense no their defense is like their defensive line is almost completely gone and their linebackers are like half them are back so they have a lot of turnover on defense but where their strength is is their offens is aot teams going into the season is you know teams that bring back a lot on offense that were successful if you're going to beat Iowa this year it's going to have to be on the offensive side of the ball it's not going to be because you have a good defense yeah you bring in be enemy on the offens side of the ball you bring another their head coach obviously he completely pissed down his leg the opening press conference but another NFL mind two guys who's been in NFL offensive you know coaching rooms and it's their first time to coach against the defense at Iowa where you you know what you're going to get they understand how attack quarters defense cover three and manto man that they're they're going to see very simple looks for 80% of the games they might have you know and this might be a very important game for their job security going forward you have the ability to beat this kind of Premier probably a top 15 program at this time in the in rankings maybe top 10 even and you can show and showcase your program off being like we can compete with this program and maybe beat him in a huge game for that program and as we mentioned going out west for Iowa has never worked out well you have that out west game it's gonna be a Friday night just G be a weird timing I could see it really being I don't know if you consider it a trap game because UCL is could end up having a pretty decent year with the guys that bring it back uh yeah I I my prediction will be uh 27 to 21 loss MH I'll go with a 24 to 2 win I think it's one of those games where their defense is jover vers too much and honestly my hope for this not being the Trap game is that it's a first year program late in the year maybe they're four and five at this point and you know there's the coaches are being very be enemies known for being kind of a stickler like kind of a prick you know maybe they're he's wearing down this program maybe they're trying to move guys out into the portal and kind of building this new identity but if they are playing like six and three ball or six and two ball at the time like I think that's where that loss comes in I'm going to go with a win here but it's definitely another tricky spot s similar to the Michigan State game where good coaches good Personnel lot a lot more Talent than you expect at those programs and it'll be game yeah so next is Maryland uh team that just really the almost the antithesis of Iowa football like to Chuck the ball around have discipline issues certainly when we've played in the past they've had multiple personal fouls seem to give up pretty quickly in the games if things aren't going their way we got eyes on their transfer QB who's going to be the projected starter again MJ Morris MJ Morris this late into the season we might not be seeing him because I I did not see what everyone else sees in him I don't know how he's going to go from starting QB to starting QB in two programs he's an athlete uh but he doesn't have high run numbers big guy passing numbers are poor and seems to be turnover prone as well um it might just be a fact where they don't have anyone else to offer at this point or they're waiting for other guys to develop but they do have a a pretty good defense that they're bringing back um but are you going to get a road game crowd that's going to be anything that late in the season for Maryland be probably getting pretty cold by then I think this is a transition year for them I think you lose Talia you lose they bring back down of the receivers obviously they always have receiver Talent there but they have they lose four their five offensive line who struggled to run the ball last year and they they just not interested in running the ball it's it's honestly it's kind of not a very serious program in my eyes like lockley he's kind of built this thing where we're going to go Chuck it around for try to score 40 points a game we're going to lose to the good teams we're going go we're going to have four losses to them uh to anyone we play that's above a top 25 team we're going to beat the 18s below us maybe lose one of those and we're just not really concerned with Ever Changing that profile and you know maybe it's just reality of Maryland football it's a basketball school it's not you know it's around a bunch of professional NFL teams there's not much pressure on him to do more than that and it's kind of a program that's kind of capped out and it feels like a capped out program that's now kind of going through this like who are we like we might not even be good on offense type of team and I think it's one of those games where we we could kind of if we're struggling at the time maybe have two or three losses this is a get right situation where what ference does so well in his program is never to lose teams he never loses a locker room I think he's only lost it once in his career in 2010 it's like a lost to locker room moment if we're a two or three lost team we're going to come out and like this is like the national title game like you you're playing a lot of seniors in the last few games you never lose that kind of edge that Iowa you know can play in November with and they've been like 16 and one in their last like 17 November games maybe in like 19 and one now in the last five years I think we roll in this game I think it's one of those shockingly weird ro road games we have a big Iowa crowd show up and we win like 31 to 14 yeah I just them taking a step back on offense you know that that if they don't have offense they have nothing MH so that's why I'm on the same Vibe as you yeah especially late season where they could be sitting at like four and five yeah are they going to show up with the willpower to play the most physical team in football all right well I think it brings us to our last game uh Nebraska year after year this game gets under my skin more and more than their fan base does it's just I can't imagine imagine losing having a losing season eight straight years and talking the way Nebraska fans talk about Iowa it's you look at Iowa the last eight years in Nebraska it's not separated much by the games the talent has not been much different generally both programs in the top 30 every year but they've not gone over the hump for even making a bowl game and Iowa's consistently won those nail-biting wins against not just Nebraska but every team in their in their in the west and it's just based on the confidence idence that these programs have in the fourth quarter and it's not just lucky bounces that you know some people want to say it's not just Nebraska is just cursed or something like that but it comes down to just having a program that knows how to finish and knows how to win and it it's not not better exemplified between those two programs well I think it also comes into how we call our games like Iowa does not really show its hand until its last possible moment it's really saving a lot of its play calls for late drives it's saving a lot of its defensive calls for really important moments in games I think a lot of teams want to come out and start fast they want to you know expend their uh plan plays I would build their almost an entire scheme around being successful in the fourth quarter and that as you mentioned that confidence Nebraska exists on the inverse of that where when things get tight late they're just waiting for who's going to make the mistake and when you when you don't have a memory to build on for you know why are we going to be successful that in security and anxiety reaches a point where they end up making the uh giant mistake almost every year it seems and I I think the difference in this year's equation is because they now have a quarterback right he's going to be a freshman so he's going to have to and again we're going to mention it one more time but not having experience with these very complicated Zone teams it's going to be his first time playing this level defense in this level comp complexity um but because he is such a big body guy he's going to be available to run the Run game he's going to have the big arm that can actually scare us from not playing too far underneath MH uh he seems to be very accurate Dude too so if he's playing at a high level and confident I don't think he has the receiver room or the tight end or Old Line running back play to put up serious numbers on Iowa but I could see in a tight game him being the difference where we actually have to make some plays to beat this team yeah and you were as he when he committed to Nebraska I think every single aisle fan was hoping he wouldn't be the next guy and then you watch his spring game and you instantly understand like why he got the festar rating he's just immensely talented guy and the kind of the most concerning portion as an iow fan watching him play is the composure he had in that game his ability to extend plays and keep his eyes downfield the way he navigated the pocket and then his arm pacing in any different you know he had four or five different types of throws and he could throw them all differently it wasn't like he just had like I have my fast ball and that's all I have like it's not like a deacon situation but I actually think the thing about a Nebraska's team last year that was you know perceived Elite strength of theirs was their defense and I actually expect that to take a downturn uh not to be like a you know only a top 50 unit but I think there'll be around a top 30 unit rather than a top 10 maybe top 25 just based on the teams they're going to play this year their their schedule last year similar to Iowa where you kind of had this inflated defensive number of you know allowing less than 10 points amount of games but they lose two of their linebackers that were stalwarts of that defense and really helped that defensive coordinator in his first year and Rhymer and Hinrich and they're both well recruited guys and I remember Rymer was even playing in 2020 against us and I don't think you can right off losing those two linebackers in a a second-year program where you know if you're in backup and kind of play an intelligent level of Defense your linebacker play is very important to that so I think I look at that to be one they have to replace those guys and two I don't see an immense amount of NFL Talent on their defensive team even when we played them last year we had moments of success because they just weren't that fast or that you know explosive and I don't think their personnels changed that much on defense going in this year and I I think that's what's going to lead to a defensive unit that's not as not as it's it shouldn't be as hyped as it is at this moment and I think even though they're going to have an immense Improvement in offense I look for their defense to kind of take a step back well the interest in caveat is that uh this is going to be played at night in November so yes having your probably your best QB play you're going to have in a long time uh it's going to be negated to a certain extent especially if that game's windy especially if that game's cold yeah I would imagine both of those are going to be taking place on that night and then add the equation of him now being in kinck stadium for the first time and having that nerves it's not going to be a spring game where no one's hitting you it's going to be a game where guys are trying to take your head off yeah I think you make a good point about their skill too their running backs are they're good they're good you and they have three of them and they can rotate and like Nebraska running backs have been good for a decade since since we watch him closely and even obviously longer than that uh wasn't Blown Away by their Old Line though wasn't Blown Away by their Old Line the receivers have been kind of the same guys for a long time too it's just a bunch of guys that are kind of Fringe NFL they got two of them that are pretty T talented the rest are okay Kemp was their stud last year and the one guy we were worried about going into the year and he's gone now so it's going to be kind of a reset there of like who's our true number one um fedon obviously got good tight end he's nothing that's going to be like we can't guard him mhm so it's it's a weird equation I don't think they're immensely talented in their skill their o line in their defense not in an elite level but you had this like kind of weird piece in where I I expect rol to be gone in three years and play like a first- round draft pick but we get him in this first year so it's it's going to be a great game I think it's you know it's a good story for Nebraska as a a fan base that Rule's going to kind of play in Iowa type of off you know scheme you know we're going to run the ball play defense but now you kind of add this like chess piece in that Iowa hasn't been recruit in the terms of a five-star quarterback and it kind of adds you know it's what Wisconsin wanted Wisconsin was hoping to bring in a guy like this and Nebraska got him just because he's a legacy recruit and it's interesting how he changes his program to you know cater to him yeah but if they it' be interesting they do take the next step or if you have you know a catastrophic years and he's looking elsewhere to go play right because an interesting part about college football is like you can have QBs who are really talented step oned teams like we even saw K last year had decent talent to throw to but it wasn't you know Michigan where these guys are considerably better than his opponents and your numbers are not going to look that much different than if you were uh a three star recruit just because guys aren't getting that open like you can get the ball 70 yards down field but is your guy going to be there or is he going to have space yeah potentially not I don't think that Nebraska has that highend receiver play that's going to make Iowa panic I think it's maybe just maybe the underneath stuff where he can be tricky enough and talented enough where he can make a difference and you think too he's got the pressure of the world on them MH I mean that's I haven't heard been discussed yet but merch was the same story merch went to Wisconsin as like the five star and it was like they land their guy like Wisconsin's always ran the ball and played defense now they have their quarterback and it's it's almost an identical storyline of like I he went to the program he shouldn't have you know he's he's he's a prodical son and the problem is when you have that moment your expectations and your pressure is insane so all of a sudden you come out and you lose three of your first like seven games and you're four and three and maybe you're struggling that mental development early in the quarterback's career of like not trying to do too much and just kind of playing within the offense like it it could be something he has a hard time developing and we've seen you know even Aller last year go through a a mind-breaking moment against Michigan where he completely fell apart and no matter how talented you are the mental side of quarterback is how they are separated so even if you throw the best ball in the world you still have to like Channel yourself and kind of decomart or compartmentalize your brain to play in those moments and that has yet to be seen and we'll see it definitely in the Iowa game you you can't replicate like high level Big 10 football yeah from a stress perspective or you going to black out cu you're in nerves or you going be completely rattled is your hand going to stay still and and that's why that guy level of guy there's why the number of guys you can play that position is such a small number MH how is it possible that every single kid grows up throwing the football but eight of them can play high level NFL QB it's because of that selection process because only so many of them are wired correctly for that game day experience mhm so what do you have for a prediction uh this one I have a win I I think going to rely on freshman QB yeah you that's that's a hell of a thing to walk into that might be a really big game that have have playoff implications I think he end up winning that game 24 I'll go 2420 yeah I think that is the the crescendo to uh this Iowa defense is like the amount of seniors they have I I'm going to go 13 to n you think about that moment what that could be in KCK if you're a one lost team a two- lost team and you're kind of vying for either a big 10 title appearance or you know sneaking in the uh back door to the playoff when Ken gets that kind of powder kick feeling and then you get a night game against Nebraska it's going to be a rare situation and I think that's what's going to drive this this game is going to be just the moment of it and it could be for you know a massive ending to the season so I think that's that's what's going to kind of drive my prediction more than I do see it can be a very good game yeah and I think this is a good place to just kind of go into predictions on the whole season so we said 10 and two you have yours built into essentially one of the losses is going to be to Ohio State the other one's going to be to one of the Rivalry one the Rival I think one of these tough road games honestly MSU or uscl where you don't have uh maybe the emotional Stak you usually would you don't have the preparation and then you run into a fairly good QB and a fairly good team um yeah 10 and two is likely going to be a playoff team I we've we've had this discussion amongst each other a couple times but there's going to be teams within the schedule that have good Seasons Iowa State could have a sneaky good season Washington could have a sneaky good season Wisconsin even Minnesota uh if you end up collecting two or three wins against teams that are probably top 30 you keep it close against Ohio State it's likely going to be a loss on the road for that second one yeah to a team that ends up winning nine or eight games y uh I still think you slip into at least a 12 or 11 seed you can't have a demonstrably bad offens offensive season where you have these really skewed metrics and they can't you know justify you going over some SEC team yeah um I you have to be healthy too you can't be you can't be limping in either yeah I down Kade can't be down Le yeah I disagree I think 111 is the only hope in I think un cuz even with a close lost Ohio State I don't there's only one team but you're not playing in the Big 10 Tile game I get that but you're only if there's only one team on this schedule projected over eight wins that's Ohio State Nebraska is seven and a half so if it's an eight and a eight win Nebraska team and they beat you they're going to circle that game you had them at home and there's not many Road games where unless Minnesota's like but they're going to put Minnesota in above you so whoever beats you if they're 10 and two they're going to put that team above you and so if you're a 10 and also you have to go against every 9 and3 SEC team that beat a top 15 Miss team on the road yeah and so they're G you're not going to have that Marquee win so you who's your Marquee win like I don't well yes you could say win tolls are not over seven and a half I guarantee there's at least two teams that get over a seven a half win total maybe even three so then if you have three eight- win teams that you beat yeah that's going to be enough is but is an eight- win team in the eyes of the committee enough because I think that what they want to see is either you would have to lose in like almost horrible fashion to Ohio State like last second touchdown right where you stepped on that field and looked like you belonged with him and maybe you had another unlucky loss that's my only way I could see 10 wins because you have to look like you played with somebody really good and they're not going to allow you just to have a good easy schedule and get in they want to see you hey if we put you on a prime time top 12 matchup national televised game you're not going to lose by 30 and I think that's what you need that Marky win and unless you go 11-1 and just have a resume that's undeniably a top 12 resume I think they'll keep you out well and it also really depends on how well you play in those 10 wins like you're going to have to be a do a dominant team in those 10 you have to be you have to be like 20 points better than a lot of mid- tier programs yeah and that's where you have to like really flex and hopefully that actually uh put some pressure on Kirk to turn the like ratchet up some SC points in those games right that's been something we really didn't have to rely on because it was just win loss MH uh and get to a big tal we always knew it was going to be an eye through you know thread in the needle but uh now there's going to be incentive behind putting up good numbers yeah if you're going to want to be a playoff team you have to dominate State you have to dominate Minnesota and I think that's overall I think it's a move they need to start moving into just because of recruiting numbers you can't have a guy sitting down recruting anti- recruiting Iowa from Minnesota from Wisconsin from Illinois even and being like look at this look where their numbers are at compared to else in the Big 10 yes they are a good team yes they probably offer you a better chance to be in the playoff be uh you know beat us eventually but is it what's best for you and that's an arc and a narrative that really needs to change this year if we're going to see an evolution under Lester if we're going to see Kirk move into this next system it is adding a little bit bit of a panach to Iowa football definitely well I think we both end up with 10- two missing the Big 10 title game uh you got us in the playoff still I got us miss in the playoff just barely uh and I think there's going to be a lot of angry fans about that because they'll be some you know Auburn at 9 and three that'll bounce us but either way I think this schedule just lines up to be really exciting I it's not a big 10 West schedule where you're play you know you have six games on the schedule you're for sure going to win it kind of more lines up where you may you only have three or four that you feel very confident in and eight or nine that are going to be a onore game in the four so going to be a really exciting year well I think what makes it really exciting too is just being a two- loss team or even a one loss team to Ohio State at any point in the season you're never out of it I think that's going to make the college b as a whole Nationwide far more better product is because you're going to have gigantic implicating games in November in October between two loss and three lost teams that you haven't had in the past they have National tile implications and that's that's something we had to experience with college why usually see kind of like late November the interest in college ball Fades because you only have two or three match ups a weekend that actually matter y awesome yeah well let's uh let's have a good season yep go Hawks go Hawks [Music]