Hawaiian islands under red flag warning as Hone approaches

>> THE TEAM'S GOING TO NEWS AT 4 STARTS NOW. GOOD AFTERNOON. WE ARE TRACKING TROPICAL NEY EXPECTED TO GAIN STRENGTH WHEN IT PASSES SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS WEEKEND. BUT THERE ARE FEW CHANGES FROM YESTERDAY. REALLY MINOR ONES. AND I THINK WE'RE GETTING A BETTER INDICATION OF POTENTIAL IMPACTS. LET'S TAKE A LOOK FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE OVERALL WATCHES THAT WE HAVE THAT ARE RELATED TO HONE A >> FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE BIG ISLAND AS WELL. NOW WATERS SURROUNDING THE STATE ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING THAT IS ONLY OFFSHORE WATERS. AND HERE IS A LOOK AT THE 3 SYSTEMS THAT WE'RE CURRENTLY MONITORING. WE HAVE, OF COURSE, TROPICAL STORM AND FARTHER OUT IN TIME AND DISTANCE. WE HAVE HURRICANE WILMA AND ANOTHER AREA THAT'S GOT ABOUT A 90% CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. I DO WANT TO GIVE SOME PROPS TO HURRICANE GOMA. HAD A REALLY CLEAR. I REALLY GOOD FORM REALLY HEALTHY MAJOR HURRICANE HERE. AND THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT BOTH TROPICAL THAT POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND DILMA DOES NOT LOOK TO MAKE A DIRECT HIT OR REALLY HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE ISLANDS. MAYBE SOME STORM REMNANTS. SO THAT IS GOOD NEWS BACK TO ON ON A HAS AS FAR AS ITS PARENTS LOOKING A LITTLE BIT RAGGEDY. I MEAN, YESTERDAY WAS MORE CIRCULAR, HAD A BETTER FORM. I THINK IT'S IT'S GOING THROUGH A LITTLE BIT OF NOT WEAKENING, BUT DISORGANIZATION. STILL, THOUGH, IT INTENSIFYING SLOWLY, WARM WATER, AMPLE MOISTURE AND LOW WIND SHEAR. ALL OF THAT GETS WIPED OUT WHEN IT STARTS TO PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS, MORE TOWARDS KAUAI. RIGHT NOW, WINDS ARE AT 50 MILES PER HOUR. 24 HOURS AGO, THEY WERE AT 40 MILES PER HOUR. SO THEY'VE GONE UP ABOUT 10 MILES PER HOUR. IT'S STILL MOVING VERY FAST WEST AT 16 MILES PER HOUR. NOW, 470 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, 680 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF HONOLULU. HERE IS THE OFFICIAL TRACK HASN'T CHANGED MUCH. IN FACT, NOT AT ALL. SO WE STILL HAVE THAT SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BIG ISLAND UNDER THAT CONE OF UNCERTAINTY. THAT DOESN'T MEAN THAT JUST MEANS THE CENTER OF IT COULD PASS IN THAT AREA. BUT IT'S HIGHLY UNLIKELY. AND SHOW YOU WHY IN A MINUTE, THE WINDS NOW WE HAVE MAYBE 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. WELL, SOUTH OF HAWAII. THIS IS SUNDAY AT 08:00PM, BUT IT'S STILL GOING TO FLIRT WITH THOSE HURRICANE SPEED SUNDAY MORNING, 70 MILES PER HOUR SUNDAY. 75 MONDAY, 70. AND THEN TUESDAY DOWN TO 60'S. SO NOT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN TRACK. AND SPEAKING OF TRACK, THERE'S VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF THIS PASSING SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS. THESE ARE ALL THE FORECAST MODELS YOU NOTICED ALL CLUSTERED TOGETHER. IT ONLY GETS WIDER WHEN IT PASSES SOUTH OF KAUAI. AND LOOK AT THIS ONE. GUY THAT'S JUST BOBBING UP AND DOWN LIKE A ROLLER COASTER THERE. I THINK THAT ONE HAD MAYBE TOO MUCH CAFFEINE THE REST OF THEM ALL AGREE WITH EACH OTHER THAT IT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS AND WILL NOT MAKE A DIRECT IMPACT ANYWHERE IN THE STATE. THIS IS THE WIND THREATS. IT'S REALLY JUST STRONG TRADE WINDS BECAUSE THE WINDS AROUND ONE A A GRAZE SOUTH POINT AND EVEN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS. BUT SHORTLY AFTER EVERYTHING IS WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER, SO WHAT DO WE HAVE STRONG TRADE WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MILES PER HOUR. SO THAT'S A SUSTAINED 30 TO MAYBE 35 40 GUSTS OF 50 MILES PER HOUR. MAYBE EVEN STRONGER THAN THAT. IT'S STRONG TRADES THAT WE ARE DEALING WITH STATEWIDE, NOT A DIRECT WIND INFLUENCE FROM WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM WARNING. ALL RIGHT. LET'S TALK ABOUT SOME RAIN NOW AS WE LOOK AHEAD, WE'RE GOING TO GO THROUGH SOME SIMULATIONS AND SCENARIOS. BUT THE FIRST THING TO KNOW IS THAT BIG ISLAND EAST NOW PROJECTED TO HAVE 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN. 24 HOURS AGO IT WAS 4 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ELSEWHERE. WE'RE STILL LOOKING AT 2 TO 4 IN THIS SIMULATION. THE HEAVY RAIN IS FOR THE BIG ISLAND. THAT'S ALSO WHAT YOU'RE GOING TO NEXT. SIMULATION. BUT MINIMAL RAIN ELSEWHERE. HERE'S HOW IT LOOKS THAT THINGS START MOVING. TROPICAL STORM STARTS MOVING. WE SEE RAIN FOR HILO AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. HEAVY RAIN STARTS MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAINS THERE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE REST OF THE STATE, THOUGH, BARELY ANYTHING. AND SO THIS IS SQUARELY, LEAST ACCORDING TO THIS SCENARIO, A BIG ISLAND, HEAVY RAIN EVENT, MAYBE EAST MAUI. BUT YOU CAN SEE THERE'S NOT MUCH HAPPENING WITH THE REST OF THE STATE. MAUI COUNTY, OAHU AND KAUAI. AGAIN, THIS IS JUST A SCENARIO OF ONE OF THESE FORECAST MODELS. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT ANOTHER FORECAST MODEL. THIS ONE SHOWS A LITTLE BIT MORE MOISTURE FOR THE REST OF THE STATE, BUT STILL SQUARELY FOCUSED, HEAVY RAIN ON THE BIG ISLAND WITH LIGHTER RAIN AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THE STATE. SO THAT'S THE TAKEAWAY WITH THIS. IS THAT THE BIG ISLAND? IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE THAT HEAVY RAIN AND THE REST OF THE STATE ELSEWHERE, MAYBE 2 TO 4 INCHES. IF WE'RE LUCKY, TROPICAL STORM COULD BRIEFLY GAIN HURRICANE STATUS. THAT IS THIS WEEKEND WIN AT SOUTH OF OAHU AND KAUAI. 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN FOR BIG ISLAND EASTERN SHORES, 2 TO 4 ELSEWHERE, GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MILES PER HOUR AND EAST SHORE SURF TO 10 FEET. THE BIG ISLAND'S EAST SIDE CURRENTLY UNDER A HIGH SURF