The True DEATH TOLL of the Ukraine War

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine failed to  produce the quick victory that Vladimir   Putin and indeed the wider world expected. Kyiv did not fall in days, as everyone assumed.   The Ukrainian government survived. But this  should not be as surprising as it once seemed.   The mistake of assuming a rapid, decisive  victory is one that military leaders   and warring states have made since ancient  times. Sun Tzu cautioned leaders who thought   of uncomplicated victories that “the worst  policy of all is to besiege walled cities”   and that “there is no instance of a country  having benefited from prolonged warfare.”   Putin, like so many wannabe conquerors  before him, failed to heed these warnings,   and by March 2022, found himself in a  prolonged war of attrition. No single   decisive battle would end this war. Exhaustion  from equipment losses and casualties would.   It has now been over two years since  the invasion began and both sides have   suffered from this latest instance of protracted  warfare. But how many casualties have both sides   taken since February 24th, 2022? And how do  these casualty figures tie in to the ability   of each of the warring countries to carry on  the hostilities and walk away with a victory?   First, it is helpful to remember that casualties  do not equal people being killed in action.   Casualties not only include those killed,  but also wounded, captured, or missing.   In 2021, Ukraine’s population was about 44 million  people. Russia’s 2021 population was about 143.4   million, a figure 3.2 times as large. According  to the Global Firepower Index, as of 2024,   Ukraine has an available manpower of about 22  million, with 15.4 million fit-for-service and   476,000 reaching military age annually.  Russia has 69.4 million, 46.4 million,   and 1.2 million in each respective category. Two years of war in Ukraine have produced   hundreds of thousands of casualties in a combined  total, but trying to determine more specific   figures than that is a little trickier. For  understandable reasons, both sides are reluctant   to release their data. Looking at the size of  the respective armies is a good way to start.   Before Russia invaded, Ukraine had about 300,000  personnel between its regular armed forces   and paramilitary troops. The war has swelled  Ukraine’s forces to about 2.2 million today,   with an active duty force of 900,000.  The rest are reserves and paramilitary   forces and not all of them are deployed at once. Russia, meanwhile, began the invasion with 190,000   troops, but this was obviously not enough. By  May 2023, after the partial mobilizations began,   the number went up to 300,000, according to EU  sources. By September, Russian forces in Ukraine   had increased to 420,000, according to sources  in Ukrainian intelligence. Russia’s armed forces   number 1.32 million active personnel, two million  in reserve, and 250,000 paramilitary troops. Not   all of these are deployed in Ukraine, as some  of them need to patrol Russia’s long borders,   but more of the country’s available troops have  steadily been drawn in as the conflict continues.   How many of these troops have become casualties? By June 2022, Ukraine reported that 10,000 of its   men had been killed and an additional 30,000  injured. Russian losses were reported to be   about three times that number. Accounting for  overestimates, this is at least a reasonable idea,   because Ukraine was on the defensive as Russia  attempted to sweep through the Donbas region.   In September, Russia released figures supposedly  showing that Ukraine had suffered 61,000 deaths   and about 49,000 wounded, in comparison  to about 50,000 Russian wounded and ten   times fewer fatalities. These figures  were plainly absurd, especially with   Russian troops routing as Ukraine was regaining  thousands of square kilometers of territory.   2023 brought more concrete, independent  data. In August, the Proceedings of the   National Academy of Sciences of the United  States of America (PNAS) used 4,609 reports   of military and civilian losses encompassing  both sides and developed a statistical model   to come up with a reasonably accurate estimate  of each country’s respective casualties. The   authors tried to account for reporting biases on  both sides. In particular, the study found that   both sides overestimated the losses suffered by  their respective opponents. Ukraine, they said,   tends to magnify Russian deaths to twice what  they actually are, while Russia estimated that   Ukraine suffered four times as many fatalities  as it actually did. PNAS also said that Russian   sources underestimated their own casualty  figures. The authors noted that Russia has   suffered both more total casualties and a greater  proportion of fatalities within its casualties,   and Russian sources typically only report a third  of the deaths their armed forces actually suffer.   PNAS estimated that by February 2024, Ukraine had  suffered about 17,200 fatalities and about 33,000   injuries. At this point, Russia was taking tens of  thousands of casualties in the months’ long battle   for Bakhmut. That same month, Russian Defense  Minister Sergei Shoigu claimed that his forces   had suffered 11,000 casualties in the battle, but  Western officials said that between 20,000 and   30,000 Russian troops had become casualties there.  These figures did not include the mercenaries from   the then-active Wagner Group, which also suffered  terrible losses during the battle, enough for it   to rise in revolt against Moscow shortly after  the city fell. Ukraine’s garrison at Bakhmut had   inflicted highly disproportionate casualties. But all was not well for Ukraine. As the Battle   of Bakhmut raged, Ukraine was preparing for  its counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia. Western   observers had high hopes for this operation and  hoped that it would reach the Sea of Azov, cutting   Russia’s land bridge to Crimea. Unfortunately,  Ukraine was unable to even come close to repeating   the successes of 2022. The Ukrainian military  wound up cracking the first two of Russia’s three   extensive lines of defense in Zaporizhzhia,  but were unable to translate this momentum   into a wider breakthrough. As Ukrainian forces  flung themselves on the most elaborate network   of fortifications seen in Europe since World War  I, casualties naturally mounted. By August 2023,   as the campaign in Zaporizhzhia raged, American  sources estimated that Ukraine’s casualties   ballooned to a number between 100,000  and 120,000 injuries and 70,000 dead.   Curiously, though, Russia is regarded as  having taken more casualties in this campaign   than Ukraine despite being on the defensive.  In September, the Institute for the Study of   War noted that Russia’s “Storm-Z” detachments  with convict recruits had arrived to act as   “cover” for units in the regular army, such as the  airborne forces. With these troops being treated   as cannon fodder, Russia was suffering hundreds  of casualties per day even as the Ukrainian   offensive was failing to make strategic gains. With costly human wave tactics hearkening back   to many past wars, it should not be surprising  that Russia has suffered far more fatalities than   it officially reports. In June 2022, Russian  sources claimed that they had suffered about   5,900 fatalities since the war began, but  British intelligence sources estimated it   to be nearly three times that, at roughly  15,000, and Ukrainian sources claimed it   was over 30,000. Given the biases that PNAS  mentioned, the British figure is likely the   most trustworthy for that point in the war. By February 2023, PNAS’ estimate for Russian   casualties was roughly 150,000 injuries and almost  70,000 fatalities. In August, after the Russians   had captured Bakhmut at an enormous cost and were  suffering during Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia campaign,   American intelligence sources estimated that  Russia had suffered 120,000 fatalities during   the course of the war, with an additional  170,000 to 180,000 injured. This would seem   like a high proportion of deaths compared to  the total casualties, and given their source,   may be less than trustworthy compared to  another figure released two months later.   An independent investigation by the BBC and  Mediazona, an anti-Putin Russian news outlet,   used data from Russian cemeteries to conduct a  statistical analysis. Through this study, they   estimated that Russia had suffered at least 88,800  fatalities since the war started. A month later,   a Ukrainian army official claimed on Facebook  that Russia had suffered 170,000 injuries   and over 150,000 deaths. The BBC/Mediazona  study is likely the closest to the truth.   By March 2024, the British Ministry of Defence  claimed that Russia had suffered 355,000 total   casualties in the two years’ war, amounting to  about 983 per day. Two months earlier, British   officials predicted that Russia would suffer over  500,000 total casualties by the end of 2024.   But these are military casualties only. Civilians  have typically suffered the worst in war. Has   it been the same this time? Russia has ignored  the international humanitarian treaties that it   has signed on to and attacked Ukrainian civilian  population centers. Civilians in Russian-occupied   areas have suffered even worse. In September  2022, UN sources estimated that there were 18,500   civilian injuries and 10,000 deaths in Ukraine.  This would be a low ratio of civilian-to-military   losses in historical wars. The UN said the true  figures could be much higher due to verification   issues. Many of these casualties came during  the siege of Mariupol that lasted between   February and May 2022. Ukrainian sources  claimed that 25,000 civilians died there,   although they would have wanted to magnify  this number as part of the information warfare   environment against Russia. UN sources confirmed  1,350 such deaths, but naturally estimated the   number to be significantly higher. In January  2022, the city had a population of about 425,600   people. By May 2023, it had dropped to about  120,000, with the Institute for the Study of   War citing Russian documentary evidence that plans  were in place to ethnically cleanse the Ukrainian   people there and replace them with Russians. UN sources claimed that 500 civilian deaths and   1,047 injuries were of children. Given that  Russia has been known to attack at least one   school in Kharkhiv with cluster bombs – an  unambiguous war crime that resulted in the   death of a child – this is likely an undercount.  Cluster bombs often fail to detonate, with Russian   bombs in particular having dud rates as high  as 40%. These unexploded bombs in effect become   landmines. This is why it should not be surprising  that at least 303 of those civilian deaths and 676   injuries came from mines and abandoned explosives.  Ukraine has since become the most heavily-mined   country in the world and more civilians have  undoubtedly been accidentally killed by these.   The February 2023 PNAS study estimated  that 13,000 Ukrainian civilians had   died and about 19,000 had been injured. In February 2024, the UN released a new estimate,   verifying 30,457 civilian casualties, with  close to 11,000 killed and 20,000 injured.   In a total war of attrition, inflicting  civilian casualties helps to cripple the enemy   economy by depriving it of labor and productive  capacity. This was the case during World War II,   and like in so many other ways, the Russian  military seems to be taking this approach   to the treatment of civilians in Ukraine,  despite international humanitarian law.   Since the war has been mostly fought on Ukrainian  territory, Russia has suffered few civilian   casualties. However, it has not escaped unscathed.  Cross-border raids, such as the one in Belgorod   in May 2023, and missile and drone attacks have  left their marks. By August 2023, 7x7, another   Russian independent media source, estimated that  there had been 105 civilian casualties. These   were concentrated near the border with Ukraine. While wounded men can sometimes return to action,   this is often not the case. By December 2023, at  least 20,000 of Ukraine’s wounded had required   amputations, and, according to a Russian  source that was perhaps being unusually   honest, over half of all the wounded  Russian soldiers required amputation.   Tens of thousands of troops are also suffering  from mental health issues. Lack of adequate   rotation, especially in the Russian lines,  has led to a full-blown mental health crisis.   Abuse of alcohol and other drugs is common. Although the reports vary, the conclusion   seems inescapable that Russia has not only  suffered more casualties than Ukraine, but at a   disproportionate rate. However, because Russia has  a significantly larger population, it can still   more easily afford its casualties than Ukraine,  since they are far more easily replaceable.   There are additional problems for Ukraine  in mobilizing its people to fight this war.   Much of the population has become refugees since  the invasion started. Eight million Ukrainians   have been internally displaced between February  and May 2022. An additional eight million fled   the country by the war’s first anniversary.  That amounts to 37% of the country’s pre-war   population. Although most of these refugees  have been women and children who are either   unfit for military service or are not fit for  all tasks, experts estimate that at least 20,000   Ukrainian men fled to avoid being drafted. The situation seemed to improve for Ukraine   by the end of 2022, as some of the refugees  returned home, with the figures dropping down   to 5.1 million internally displaced  persons and 6.3 million Ukrainian   refuges living abroad. Ukraine’s successful  counteroffensives drew some people back. However,   the war has turned against Ukraine since then. There is a darker side to this population flow.   About one million Ukrainian nationals  have forcibly been deported to Russia.   The Fourth Geneva Convention, which  Russia has ratified, prohibits this,   and so this practice is considered a war  crime. The International Criminal Court issued   an arrest warrant for some Russian officials,  including Vladimir Putin, for this behavior.   However, Ukraine is not the only one suffering  a loss of available manpower through refugees.   Russia has also suffered, and disproportionately  in the prime military demographic. When Vladimir   Putin announced his partial mobilization in the  autumn of 2022, hundreds of thousands of men left   the country to avoid conscription. These people  are often some of Russia’s best and brightest,   who contribute disproportionately to its economy.  Between 800,000 and 900,000 total people have fled   Russia since the start of the war. At least  250,000 men are among those refugees. These   are all people that cannot be called on to  do any military service and their no longer   being available is important for Ukraine, as it  amounts to Russia essentially losing a year’s   worth of replacements for its soldiers. This is  crucial if it wants to win the war of attrition.   Nevertheless, Ukraine is suffering a much worse  shortage of manpower, which is why the country’s   draft laws have been changed. In April 2024, the  Ukrainian Parliament passed a new law that made   more people eligible for conscription. Ordinarily,  Ukrainian men over the age of 27 had been subject   to conscription upon declaration of martial law.  The legislature has since lowered the age to 25,   but the law went further than broadening the  draft pool. Ukraine’s brass has complained   that not enough troops are showing up to  camp. Draft dodging has become common. As   in most wars of this nature, the initial swell  of patriotism has since given in to gloom as   the cost of conflict has revealed itself.  Troops are no longer so eager to fight.   To crack down on draft dodging, the new law  requires men to update their conscription   data with the authorities within 60 days.  Draft dodging now also comes with stricter   penalties. A proposal to insert time limits for  mobilization was dropped and military service   remains open-ended. However, there are also  new incentives. Volunteers now get more pay.   The Ukrainian Parliament has also loosened  recruitment rules in another way. In a sign of   the increasing pressure Ukraine is under, the  new law takes a page out of Russia’s playbook   and permits convicts to join the army under some  conditions. Women are still not required to serve,   but earlier legislation expanded the number  of professions in which they were mandated   to register. Previously, only women serving in  specialized roles such as medicine were required   to register for military service. Now women in  professions as varied as journalism and music   can be mobilized if wartime conditions demand it.  So far, women have not been forcibly mobilized,   but as pressure mounts, that could change. These new measures inspired fierce opposition   among the war-weary Ukrainian public, but  casualties in the two years of fighting have taken   their toll and the military needs replacements.  Ukraine’s brass, such as General Yuriy Sodol,   who commands the forces in Kharkhiv, Donetsk, and  Luhansk Oblasts, lamented that he lacked manpower,   with the Russian invaders outnumbering  his troops “by 7-10 times.” This is not a   winning formula in a war of attrition, even as  Ukraine continues to inflict disproportionate   casualties on Russian troops. Acknowledging that attrition,   and not a decisive battle, would be the key  to winning this war, the Estonian Ministry   of Defense claimed in December 2023 that Ukraine  would need to kill or maim at least an additional   100,000 Russian troops in 2024 in order for  victory to be possible. The Estonians warned:   “If undisrupted, Russia has the capacity to  train approximately 130,000 troops every six   months into cohered units and formations  available for launching operations.”   This would lead to 260,000 new troops available  per year, which in turn can sustain a total force   of 420,000 troops in Ukraine. The Estonians  said that Ukraine must increase the demand   for Russian manpower to the point that Moscow  cuts corners with its basic training and sends   increasingly worthless replacements to the  battlefield. These troops will die faster,   leading to a feedback loop of Russia becoming  increasingly desperate for manpower as the   war spirals into an unsustainable cycle. To do this effectively, Ukraine must also mitigate   its losses. The Estonians estimated that Ukraine  suffered a total of 200,000 casualties just shy   of the war’s second anniversary. They recommended  that Ukraine’s Western allies help it to mitigate   its casualties by providing better training  to Ukrainian recruits. Over 100,000 Ukrainian   soldiers have been trained by its Western allies.  However, the Estonians reported that this training   was not to the same quality. For example,  basic training in the US Army is ten weeks,   followed by months of additional training for  specialized tasks. Ukrainian troops have only   gotten five weeks in basic and presumably  far less time for specialized tasks.   “It is time for us to set new objectives,  a new pace and a new standard of quality   in training,” the Estonians concluded. This strategy of increasing Ukraine’s   lethality while training its soldiers  to higher standards will require time,   though, time that Russia believes it has on its  side. Ukraine has suffered severe shortages of   ammunition in the first half of 2024 as Western  aid slowed down. Aid picked up in the spring,   with millions of shells and other vital ammunition  set to arrive this summer. These packages should   take Ukraine at least into 2025. Ukraine already  killed or maimed well over 100,000 Russian troops   in the first two years of the war. With such  tools on hand, it is in a good position to meet   the benchmark the Estonians have set for it, but  difficulties have been multiplying. The British   General Sir Richard Barrons warned in an interview  with the BBC that a major Russian offensive looked   to be coming this summer, which he thinks will  be in Donbas and potentially toward Kharkhiv.   In April, General Christopher Cavoli,  the senior American commander in Europe,   warned that Ukraine would need significantly more  aid and ammunition. Such aid is now arriving,   and with stubborn Russian human wave tactics,  the new shells, missiles, and later in the year,   F-16s, should give Ukraine the means to  inflict the 100,000 deaths and permanent   injuries the Estonians believe will be necessary. Only time will tell if the war takes a turn for   the better and Ukraine can use its new weapons  to inflict the casualties it supposedly needs to,   but one thing about the casualties in the fighting  is clear – war may be a highly emotional matter,   inspiring works of art and the consciousness  of nations for thousands of years, but to the   generals, it is often only a matter of math. What do the casualties in Ukraine reveal about   the state of the war and the prospects for  both sides? Will Ukraine be able to inflict   the necessary casualties on Russia as its  so-called “shell hunger” ends this summer?   Don’t forget to let us know in the comments.  Also make sure to like this video to support   the channel and hit the subscribe button for  more military analysis from military experts!   Now go check out Putin's HUGE Tank  Losses or click this other video instead!