Why Russia’s NUCLEAR WEAPONS Didn't Stop Ukraine's INVASION

Russia is preparing to use nuclear weapons if  America gives Ukraine the green light to use   its most devastating weapons deep inside Russian  territory. Or at least, that's what Russia wants   you to believe. With Ukraine liberating a  lot of Russia's Kursk Oblast from Russia,   and the battle in the east of Ukraine heating up,  Kyiv has begun to request free use of America's   most powerful weapons inside of Russia itself. And  Russia is terrified of this happening. On August   27th, the Kremlin made the announcement that it  was “clarifying” the wording of its doctrine on   the use of nuclear weapons, allegedly to give  more quote- clarity. This announcement came   as Ukraine seems to have reached the limit of  exploitation in its invasion of Kursk oblast,   launched new incursions into Belgorod, and has  been pressuring its international allies to give   it the green light to strike at military targets  deep inside of Russia. While Putin was more than   happy to allow Ukraine to kill Russian conscripts  en masse and seize territory inhabited by mostly   lower class Russians- it's the thought of American  weapons striking deep into Russia that spurred him   into action. The specific weapons in mind are  ATACMs and other western supplied missiles such   as Storm Shadow and potentially, an unannounced  American long-range strike missile. For two   years Kyiv lobbied for these critical weapons in  order to defend itself from Russian aggression,   and it only started receiving them in April. These  proved deadly effective against Russian formations   and facilities inside of Ukraine- ATACMs famously  made its debut by destroying a large number of   Russian attack helicopters in one strike, driving  the Ka-52 attack helicopter further down the   endangered species list. But Ukraine has had one  major problem which Russia has happily exploited:   the Ukrainian military is fighting with one arm  tied behind its back. Unable to strike across its   border into Russia with western weapons, time  and again Russia has exploited the west's fear   of escalation to stage troops and equipment  from the safety of its border regions with   Ukraine. Combat aircraft frequently launched  sorties from right outside Ukrainian territory,   and supply convoys were free to gather before  crossing the border and dispersing. Ukraine needed   to break Russia's ability to exploit the border  as it pleased- and it took a near-catastrophe to   gain permission to start doing just that. In May  Russia launched its predicted summer offensive,   with a massive troop concentration of between  30,000 to 50,000 personnel ready to assault the   city of Kharkiv. They made easy initial gains,  with Ukraine putting up little resistance near   the border regions. The city was in serious  danger of falling, a crippling tactical and   morale loss which might have swung the tide of  the war irrevocably in Russia's favor. The key   to stopping the assault was striking Russians  in their staging areas right across the border,   where men, equipment, and supplies were  being gathered with no fear of retaliation,   Russia counting on Western self-deterrence to  protect them. In a move that surprised the world,   President Biden secretly gave the green light for  the use of American weapons in the border regions,   expanding their use to any area near the  Russian-Ukrainian border being used to mass   troops or stage equipment. This had hard limits,  and Ukraine couldn't strike deep into the Russian   rear as it needed to in order to win the war,  but it was a start. In one blistering barrage,   hundreds of GMLRs rockets smashed into Russian  formations. ATACMs missiles did the job they   were originally designed to do: deliver 472 pounds  (214 kg) of high explosive democracy right on top   of Russian heads inside Russian territory. Total  casualties remain a tightly guarded secret, but   what is known is that the Kharkiv assault faltered  due to the lifting of firing restrictions across   the Russian border. Later, when Ukraine launched  a special military operation into Kursk, this   army grouping was originally believed to be the  force Russia would use to counter the Ukrainian   invasion- the fact that it didn't strongly  signals that casualties from the fighting on   the border were extensive. And it's all thanks to  the long-range weapons that Putin fears so much,   he's once again resorting to nuclear threats. It's  becoming increasingly clear that among the many   objectives of the Kursk invasion, chief amongst  them was to break the taboo of Russian nuclear   threats. Since the beginning of this conflict  Vladimir Putin has been threatening the use of   nuclear weapons as a way to deter the West from  providing support to Kyiv- and it has worked   wondrously. For over two years now western leaders  have carefully deliberated each and every bullet   sent to Ukraine, weighing its military value vs  the risk of making Putin big mad and him lobbing a   nuke at someone. Heavy restrictions were placed on  Ukraine's use of western arms, and physical limits   were even made via modifications to some weapons  to keep Ukraine from firing them deep into Russia.   Meanwhile, Russia was- and continues to be- free  to use North Korean and Iranian ballistic missiles   and drones anywhere in Ukraine that it wants to.  The irony of Russia being able to strike anywhere   it wants with its allies' weapons, but Ukraine  not being able to do the same with its allies'   weapons isn't' lost on an increasingly embittered  President Zelensky. Yet western media faithfully   amplified the Kremlin's nuclear threats at each  and every opportunity, doing the job of deterrence   for them. Even now, with the ultimate taboo  broken, the west continues to debate if Ukraine   should be allowed to use western weapons inside  of Russia, taking out the supply depots and air   fields deep behind the front lines that it needs  to if it's to actually win this war. Right on cue,   Russian President Vladimir Putin once again  rattled the nuclear saber, with announcements via   Russia's Foreign Minister and Slavic Uncle Lurch,  that Russia would be 'clarifying' the wording on   its nuclear doctrine. Unless that clarification  is “we won't use nuclear weapons because we know   the west has better ones and theirs probably all  work because Private Conscriptavich didn't' steal   all the copper wiring out of them”, then this is  once again another bit of fearmongering. Or is   it? Could Russia actually be ready to use nuclear  weapons and why hasn't it yet? Even before the war   in Ukraine, Russian nuclear doctrine was clear:  it would use nuclear weapons in defense of the   homeland, or if the existence of the Russian state  itself was at risk. This is very unambiguous,   and part of why the west has taken over  two years and hundreds of thousands of   Ukrainian casualties to warm up to the idea of  allowing strikes into Russian territory. With   the invasion of Kursk though many are wondering  where the Russian nuclear response is- or if it   might come at all. After the stunning success of  fall 2022's counterattack by Ukrainian forces,   many feared that Putin was being driven to the use  of nuclear weapons out of desperation and to avoid   embarrassment. The three day special military  operation was over six months old at this point,   and Russian casualties were extreme. The massive  convoy to Kyiv had been a military embarrassment   the likes of which history books haven't  seen since possibly the second world war,   and to add to the sting the introduction of  just two dozen American HIMARS to the war   resulted in disproportionate losses on the  Russian side. Poor training and even worse   doctrine had led the Russians to centralize  their supplies, making them easy targets for   Ukrainian HIMARS strikes all across the front and  creating one hell of a fireworks display. Command   posts were likewise poorly disguised and created  close to the front lines, until dozens of senior   Russian officers were permanently retired during  GMLRs bombardments. As France's President Emmanuel   Macron had famously said, “Putin must not be  humiliated”, but humiliated he had been. The world   braced for the worse. Unable to cope with even  a tiny number of advanced NATO weapon systems,   it was widely feared that Putin would reach  out in desperation for the use of tactical   nuclear weapons. These strikes would have little  military value, given how low the yield and how   widely dispersed Ukrainian forces were, Russia  would have to lob dozens of them to achieve any   significant battlefield effect. Plus all of that  fallout would just float to Russia on prevailing   winds. But what they would achieve is intimidating  the Ukrainian people and most importantly: its   western allies. A few nuclear detonations on the  front lines could have been the end of all western   support for Ukraine. Except America's President  Biden had something to say about that- something   that scared Putin enough to disregard the idea  altogether. It remains unknown exactly what was   exchanged between the two sides, but it is known  that an American military delegation spearheaded   by the Secretary of Defense met with their Russian  counterparts, with Secretary Lloyd Austin laying   out the exact response from the United States if  Russia dropped a single nuke. While the specifics   remain unclear, it's now believed that President  Biden had warned that the first instance of a   nuclear weapon being used would result in the  US military carrying out a conventional strike   to destroy the unit responsible for launching the  attack. The second use of a nuclear weapon would   prompt an American military strike against Russian  forces in Ukraine- at the time it was believed   that this would have been the sinking of the Black  Sea Fleet. A third strike would prompt a wider   conventional campaign against all Russian forces  currently engaged inside of Ukraine. The details   remain secret and likely will for many years to  come until this war is well and truly over- but   President Biden had made it clear to President  Putin: if you launch a single nuclear weapon,   the Russian Federation's military would face  the full might of American military power.   Washington's warning to the Kremlin was backed up  by strong signaling from Beijing deterring Russia   from the use of nuclear weapons. President Xi  remains a silent ally to Russia, providing untold   amounts of low-level but still critical military  aid to the Russian military, such as vehicles,   body armor, and ammunition. Xi needs Russia to  win in Ukraine, because a successful Russia ties   up NATO military power in Europe- and prevents it  from deterring his own plans to annex Taiwan by   force and intimidate China's regional neighbors  into concessions of valuable maritime claims.   But Russia using nukes is a hard red line for  China. Even India, which has been happily buying   up cheap Russian gas, has warned Putin away from  the use of nuclear weapons. Neither nation wants   to be tied even more than they already are to a  global pariah state, significantly harming their   own foreign relations and global standing. But  will Putin actually listen when there's signals   that growing desperation is driving him towards  the nuclear option? Many were surprised when   nukes didn't fly over the Kursk invasion, yet this  would have made little sense as Ukrainian forces   were widely dispersed and Russia would just be  nuking itself. Likewise, a nuclear attack into   Ukraine would have made little sense unless a  large number of weapons were used, or one with   a very high yield- likely against a target like a  city in order to intimidate Ukraine and the west.   For over two years, the thought of a Ukrainian  military incursion into Russia spurred thoughts   of nuclear Armageddon from across the west- let  alone an invasion spearheaded with western tanks   and infantry fighting vehicles. Given everything  that Putin has to lose if he does resort to nukes   though, unleashing them over a Kursk invasion  simply doesn't make any sense. The territories   liberated by Ukraine are largely strategically  meaningless except to serve as a buffer zone,   with little economic value and filled with Putin's  least favorite Russians: poor ones. Well, that's   kind of a misnomer because poor Russians are  actually Putin's favorite type of Russian,   it's poor Russians who he can't recruit to fight  in Ukraine that Putin doesn't care about. The   Kursk invasion doesn't even threaten any supply  routes or disrupt any logistical or military bases   supporting Russian operations inside Ukraine.  Aside from the embarrassment of being invaded   more successfully by the people you are trying  to invade, the Kursk operation has little overall   direct military value. Certainly not worth using  nukes over. To clarify a point though, the Kursk   invasion has been a massive success with very real  strategic value- spurring new aid packages from   Ukraine's allies, breaking the taboo of western  weapons being used inside Russia, and forcing the   Kremlin to figure out how to protect its border  and limit further invasion with a military already   stretched too thin for major combat operations  inside Ukraine itself. The Kursk invasion has   been a strategic coup- it's just that the part  of Russia it has captured poses little military   cost on the Kremlin, and can't be compared to the  seizure of valuable military targets such as bases   and air fields. What might be worth using nuclear  weapons over though, at least in Putin's mind,   is reinforcing the now-broken taboo of western  arms being utilized inside Russia. If there's   one thing that scares Putin, it's the thought of  Storm Shadow and ATACMs missiles raining down on   vulnerable military targets deep inside Russia.  Given the difficulty in stopping Ukraine's drone   campaign against extremely valuable economic  targets throughout Russia, such as oil fields and   processing plants, the Russian military is in no  position to try to also defend its military assets   against long-range attacks. These sort of attacks  could have a very real impact on the war- while   Ukrainian drones have caused damage to Russian  aircraft, a volley of ATACMS packing thousands   of pounds of good old fashioned American high  explosive freedom could significantly degrade   Russia's fleet of strategic aircraft. What  aircraft survived would be forced to launch   operations from even further away to keep them  out of the reach of western weapons. This would   directly translate to a massive slowdown in  Russian air operations, giving Ukrainians badly   needed breathing room- in July Ukrainian forces in  some parts of the front were experiencing as many   as 50 glide bomb attacks a day. Russian fighter  aircraft would face the same damage and risk,   pushing them further away from the fighting as  well. This would open up a big hole in the sky for   Ukrainian strike and fighter aircraft, leveling  the playing field significantly and creating a big   opportunity for Ukraine's newest piece of western  kit: the F-16 Fighting Falcon. These aircraft,   despite being older models, are still a massive  leap ahead in capabilities for the Ukrainians,   and pose a significant threat to even  Russian fighters. With the skies contested,   Ukraine could use these aircraft to launch  sophisticated western munitions that are more   capable than what its Soviet-era aircraft  can carry, with great battlefield effect. A   ground offensive by Ukraine is also back  in the cards. In 2023, Ukraine's summer   offensive was stymied by vast defensive  fortifications, mine fields, and Russia's   air power. Russia sacrificed a significant portion  of its attack helicopter fleet in a desperate   attempt to avoid multiple breakthroughs, and was  successful- even if it cost it dearly. Take away   Russian air power though, and Ukrainian tanks  and IFVs can operate with much more freedom,   while Ukrainian aircraft can provide the frontline  support that Russian forces have been enjoying for   most of this war. And this is why Putin is once  again rattling the nuclear saber, because losing   the air advantage from strikes on air fields, and  the significant damage that could be inflicted on   Russian ground equipment and logistics, could end  up being war-losing. Even worse, massive strikes   deep inside Russia would bring the war home to  the average Russian in a way that the small-scale   drone campaign, even if very successful, simply  can't. This threatens to further sway support   from a population that is already reaching high  levels of war weariness and disillusionment in   Putin's promises. But will Putin cross this  hard red line? Almost certainly not. If Putin   truly intended to use nuclear weapons, then  he would simply do so. The latest announcement   by Russian Uncle Lurch, Sergei Lavrov, that  Russia's nuclear doctrine was being “clarified”,   is another limp-wristed attempt at scaring the  west. Russia is very much the boy who cried nuke,   another example of “no guys, this time I'm for  real”, and the type of behavior you'd expect from   a schoolyard bully backed up into a corner.  Its not just an embarrassing display, it's   a signal of just how weak Russia is, and how much  it fears western military power. Now go check out   How Ukraine's Invasion Turned Russian Civilians  Against Putin or click this other video instead!