Vegas Props vs ADP (QB & RB) We Dive Deep to Find Values!

robs Round Table Mike story Nicko face this is the show of the shows If you ever watch one of them watch this one Vegas odds verse ADP I compiled a list of four different Platforms in terms of ADP setam in rankings and also went through all the Vegas props for these guys Warriors Vegas DraftKings and FanDuel setting their numbers for yards and touchdowns it's a great little spreadsheet we're going to get a lot of insights here great for Fantasy great for betting find some inequalities find of values what say you guys what guys you ready it's been a hot summer for the Pod all three of us been out here been getting after it putting lots of good information out there it's not too late we got draft weekend coming up soon y'all can still rewatch The pods soak up the information and uh go wreck your leagues man just uh just tear them apart yeah I've got one more College fantasy draft and then I jesus no no you come in here you're hot and you're heavy and no all right let's get into this quarterbacks first quarterbacks first I'm going to put the spreadsheets up here I'll just start with this a couple things really really jump out to me it's Lamar Jackson and CJ stad are overvalued uh at least in terms of what their Vegas prop is compared to their ADP uh Lamar Jackson is pretty much projected the same or they're Vegas is saying the same as Jaden Daniels within a 100 yards of each other yes he's projected four more passing touchdowns but the rushing is exactly the same actually Jaden Daniels has projected an extra rushing touchdown yeah this just this just speaks to how big of a value Jaden Daniels is in fantasy right rushing quarterbacks they break fantasy football more often than not in this case looks like if you take a look at where Kyler Murray is as well 475 is lower than I would have thought and so I've been hearing Kyler Murray Kyler Murray Kyler Murray gotta get KY gotta get KY Kyler such to me I can skip Kyler I can get Jaden Daniels a couple rounds later I'll feel very comfortable with that value it is it's and it's quite a few rounds later I think right now but uh my take with it is Lamar was going to progress as a passer last year and you saw some of that and so if he's cutting those yards back down I think part of it is him stepping forward as a passer the other part is King Henry isn't got to be right right and and that's what Vegas is looking at is let's let Henry run the ball let's let him take the hits let's keep Lamar healthy uh and Lamar when he gets flustered has some trouble and you see him in the playoffs you see him get flustered it's when he's not accurate so let uh let King Henry open up the the Run game there and Lamar just sit back and pass stay comfortable I mean four and a half touchdowns that might even be too high if you look at Henry he's sitting at 10 and a half right now and Lamar at 3250 3,250 yards passing that is super low dude that's to that's the same as Anthony richardon say I'd bet the over on that seven and a half for Anthony Richardson's touchdowns which they're they're essentially saying they're projecting the same fantasy year for Lamar and Richardson uh I mean you look at the the rushing is lower higher rushing yard that makes sense right but Richardson Big B bigger body going to be carrying more on the goal line I would think at the same time you have to wonder whether or not that Colts organization is going to try to re him in because when he got hurt it it tended to be around the 5 yard line last year if you remember that so seven and a half seems a little high for me I don't know that I'll be getting Anthony Richardson anywhere right we saw four games of it last year and he looked great but can he do that over a full season I got a tough time saying with 550 yards rushing that seem slow I mean he should go over that dude should but 3200 passing yards I don't know what do you think seemingly seemingly I Richards Rush yards are low and I think Lamar's passing yards are low I would I would take the over on both of those against Vegas uh do you think that they are overvalued in fantasy though I mean because like we hear all this all the rushing sheet code like this is not I know it's a lot of injuries are baked in with these guys and all these props and every position are going to be lower than what we think because they're not projecting it's not a 17 game projection especially with a scrambling quarterback they are projecting 1314 because if you get hurt week five you automatically lose this bet yeah you know if you had betting Anthony Richardson last year you lose it automatically um next one I want to talk about here is CJ stoud uh very overvalued based on the Vegas projections here because he's at 4150 passing yards and 28.5 passing touchdowns and if you look down to the 12 through 14 guys Brock P Tua Jared gof they're very similar to that and those are guys you're getting after the quarterback on I I don't quite understand those it does make me kind of second guess stoud as the in this case you got a at six depending on where you get it uh anywhere from some people five some people will take him ahead of Richard the other question is you look at how much more how many more passing touchdowns Mahomes has on this list are we undervaluing Mahomes yes right like should he be number two instead of three I mean how how much can you undervalue the number three guy right but um yeah that that that CJ Stroud one I I've got now Tua is literally just the same passing yard as only three touchdowns less MH which sounds like a lot okay what is it uh 12 points less and you know I guess CJ offers a little more on the ground but he is not he's not going to get over 300 yards not get over three touchdowns um and then you know Brock pie 3900 28 and a half same touchdowns same over under touchdowns Brock py you can get as literally the last quarterback off the board I mean if you're going to get a pocket passer why wouldn't you wait to get you take P you could take pie and Jared Goff and play the matchups right like right you get 4,000 yards that's that far behind CJ Stroud so you had CJ strad your hot take as your MVP quarterback to is this making you have some second guessing nicoo what are your thoughts on on CJ strout and just the value you can get later I wasn't quite as high on Stout as um story was the issue with me is another year film out there but you're adding more weapons you're not taking anything away you've added digs you've added Mixon I think a lot of people expect him to do better than you did last year and if he does just what he did last year he's going to outperform uh these numbers so I get it but why draft a guy at his ceiling when you can get a a much higher impact player wide receiver running back at that same in that same round where you're taking Stroud and get similar if not the same production uh four or five rounds later just wait let someone else have Stroud this is one where where I'd go against Vegas so I still think throut is going to throw for far more than 4150 put your money in where your mouth there and bet on it a couple more things uh Kirk Cousins they didn't have his yards posted up here that makes sense 27 and a half touchdowns up dude that's huge cuz he's never been a big touchdown guy he's been a yards guy I think the expectation is that this offense in general is going to be one of the top third in the league and so there's plenty of opportunities for that um and bejan is a pass catching running back so you can get dump off passes from the 10 yard line and he can run those in that's what I would guess um yeah it's a lot though and then Aaron Rogers uh at quarterback 20 3650 for passing yards and 26 and a half touchdown that 26 and A2 I don't I don't quite understand that yeah that seems way too high for me just a homage to the guy the goat right I mean that's a big number dude you know his numbers are the same as Jordan you have to take into consideration though that Vegas is trying to project how these guys are going to perform based on how people are going to bet on this too right so Aaron Rogers is a big name back-to-back MVP candidate or back toback MVP winner couple years ago it would make sense that this would get scre steamed up a little bit um I want to talk about the guy just below Rogers Deshawn Watson this just kind of justifies and those touchdowns Val validates my staying far away from him altogether you look at 19 and A2 19 and a half 3,300 yards Sam darnold is at 19 and a half what what kind of world are you living in like is this hand jobs or touchdowns because 19 and a half and Gardner m is at 18 and a half that makes sense I get that M Mania dere Carr is higher than him you know Daniel Jones Daniel Jones is over it no he's not Daniel Jones 16 and a half oh what am I looking at well Levis us okay I say if Daniel Jones is ahead of you pack it up brother done that's it done well all right so we got to talk about it though Caleb Williams 3500 yards 23 and a half touchdowns as the resident Bears fan I'm GNA I'm goingon to stay I'm going to hold my opinion on this I'd love to hear what the 49ers fan has to say about the presumptive offensive rookie of the year so the presumptive offensive rookie of the year has looked really good in the preseason game so far on the Off Script plays right on the the plays where things break down he's scrambling he's running he's he looking for the receiver on the broken plays those are the intangibles those are the things you can't coach those are the things that make you the number one pick the only thing I want to see out of him and you're not going to know this until you get a few regular season games is can he stay on script can he just drop back stay in the pocket make his reads read the progressions and hit what he needs to hit because if he can do that he's going to be the first be quarterback over 4,000 yards I don't think he can do that I don't think so either I'm not I'm not convinced at this point and you can't just go off script all day and play back air ball and expect to to put up massive numbers can you half ner stick to one chip like I don't think so dude like why would he boy mansion dude like he's 80 years old he's got these hotties on him like no dude I'm good I'm good y all right let Mo had of running backs here uh very interesting big crop of guys here first thing that stands out to me is bejn Robinson 6.5 rushing touchdowns woof woof is Right Buzz your girlfriend woof that's super low if you look all the way down the only the next person that's tied with him equal or lower is etn at number nine he's nine at 6.5 as well this is strictly rushing touchdowns right so who on here would catch more touchdowns maybe Gibbs yeah right maybe barley Maybee maybe Williams but that's about it dude he's the goal line back it's tough is he is it going to be not going to steal touch so everybody thinks that that aler is strictly about up and this is an 85% opportunity share for be we don't know just because Arthur Smith has gone that that's how the F knows apparently well that's the thing I'm saying how are they projecting Kurt Cousins for 28 passing touchdowns and bean for six and a half rushing touchdowns that seems like a riddle that no that makes sense right so more passing touchdowns what more likely to happen like I I don't know I don't trust does this make you would you so where were you with bejan versus I'm still Bean okay and you I'm conflicted right now because of the competition in Atlanta and and I'm nervous with aler there I was bejan and now I'm starting to lean Hall a little bit Allen has showed out for I know he's I know he's not aler he'll argue differently but he's only at seven and a half so we're only looking at one touchdown both of them are to be honest at a, yards and six to or seven to eight touchdowns I'm skipping both of these guys I'm jumping down to Taylor Gibbs you were talking about when you showed up today we're all JT guys and it's like it's it's right now in the fantasy Community all I've heard is actually I've heard discussions of Bree Hall and possibly over CMC and then you look at this you got mcaffry at 10 and a half touchdowns rushing and the crazy receiving work more rushing yards and then you have these two guys who are the consensus like mid to early first round picks they got to be they're going ahead of CD lamb sometimes and you have those low touchdown numbers for rb1s it starts to put things in the light I'm sorry I think I think Hall goes over both of those if I'm being honest I think Vegas is wrong maybe I mean I'm going to stake my I'm going to put my flag in Hall on that one and and say his yards and touchdowns are both going to be over that but there's a I mean this kind of speaks to there's a ton of uncertainty about both of these teams right the the offensive line for the Jets has yet to to mesh you got a quarterback that's over 40 coming off of an Achilles tear bejan Robinson he's in a team that they we expect to take a step forward but was in the bottom half of the offense last year and a pretty strong number two back behind him so for me like I said yeah I mean it's tough though if you're in if you got a draft pick that's two through five and you want to get a solid running back you're you're rolling dice that one of Taylor Gibbs Barkley or Henry comes back to you at the end of the second half right if you want to try that anchor RB strategy yeah and I don't think they're going to I think you got to take your RB through that early in the first round I'm I'm the number four overall pick in my home league and I'm already that same conundrum is it cidd is it Hill or is it one of these running backs to make sure I get the the what is it hero running back strategy anchor running back call it yeah you get one great one and then uh you get your receivers from there so we all agree Jonathan Taylor value 1075 I mean it was the value before I saw this and looking at the like he's projected at least rushing wise and like okay Bree Hall I get he had all the receptions last year and bejan's a great receiver but like bejan's not a 70 catch guy he's a 50 catch guy and like Jonathan Taylor can be a 40 catch guy so like that's not enough to make the difference in my mind when you have Jonathan Taylor with the touchdowns and he we've seen him do it before all right jir Gibbs 850 and 7 and a half granted he's a receiving back but that is pretty low are you off him that's about what I would expect with Monty there and then Gibbs being a little banged up already they're not going to want to just beat him up running through the tackles Monte is at 850 and 9 and a half touchdowns now granted the receiving work isn't there receiving work isn't there but to me like that actually makes Gibbs a little more attract that seven and a half number makes G Gibs a little more attractive in my eyes I was I would have expected five and a half if I was handicapping this so at 7 and a half what does Vegas know that again we talked about it on the other pod towards the end of last year we saw a 50/50 split when it came to drives or series that these running backs had and if it stays like that barring the Hing injury that Gibbs has you're going to see a much different split and that kind of makes sense for me I still wouldn't take Gibbs over Barkley or Henry but certainly over Kon Kiron etn P any of those guys behind him right I know he's he's above those guys but it makes Gibs a little more attractive in my eyes uh Devon aain Vegas is not liking him at all no 50 yard rushing dude they're betting on the health there right yeah it's got to be I mean the S and half rushing touchdowns is crazy banged up in training camp last year he was out for four games he was on the pup that is is this alarming to you guys I this feels like Vegas covering their bases here where they fully expect that Devon anan's going to miss two or three or four games like five or six games CU this guy can do that in freaking 10 games does hn make up enough in the receiving game to be 11 12 spots higher than most who's going to put up the same rushing numbers according to Vegas uh 675 versus 750 that's a decent Gap the way down moer if I don't think anan's going to be a back there I'm not I'm not willing to I mean we don't have the receiving numbers here but I'm not willing to miss on the upside of aan in in every League like I get where you're coming from moster has up touchdown opportunity an upside but me I I want what aan brings to the table there's also inry concerned with most of right like he had a a fully healthy year last year but every year prior to that he missed at least one game uh usually like five games yeah that's why I said at least coaching decisions not you know putting not dressing the guy coaching decision how about uh how about Kamar 625 and 4 and a half with all the information coming out about um the rookie or the last year's rookie he's in the dog he's hurt you got Jamal Williams who's a dinosaur uh you got Tam Hill apparently that's that's where I'm at so last week's preseason game was uh Saints ners so I watched that one obviously and uh they loaded Tamm Hill with some work and uh quarterback sneaks and run plays and I think it's a combination of you can't write Miller off yet he may be in the doghouse but he's young right second-year player and he's I think going to get his opportunity Williams you saw get how many touchdowns a few years ago before he came to New Orleans and I think Vegas is kind of baking all that in as to the different running backs there as well as how many touchdowns is New Orleans going to score it's a good question and I'm high on Ave so a lot through the air I think with car that that makes me cool on Kamar and kind of rise on tesm Hill a little bit that that I think you're right Nick well that's what they're baking in there and it's the same thing with randri Stevenson I'm worried about that four and a half touchdown number right what what does that mean for Antonio Gibson there's a world where that's the lowest scoring offense in the league and I think I think that's what Vegas is telling us I think it's more than a world it's if you're looking at the Multiverse that's happen in more worlds than that that's too low though come on he's going to he's going to walk into some touchdowns he has to right like he's he's huge he caught a few passes last year too now that Zeke's out of there I know Gibson's the pass catching back but Stevenson's uh not not averse to catching passes either so no but it does make me cool on him and you look at Connor at 775 and 6 and a half I'm going to bump him up on my rankings a little bit right he that's a nice number yeah that's also like factoring in it's James Conor like they're already factoring in the more games miss four games they're already saying he's going to do that so uh Kenneth Walker your boy he's a tiny dancer he is 7 and a half touchdowns rushing 875 with a little bit of receiving work probably undervalued where he's he's got better numbers than Joe Mixon on here in Vegas and I would take Mixon over Walker right I don't know would you think mix Walker I think Seattle's a more runhe heavy team than uh than what Houston's going to be this year they don't score any touchdowns apparent according to story nope um and at this at this point I'd take the better offense and Mixon I'd rather have the player on the better offense if that's the tiebreaker for me yeah I'm still mixing but I am kind of I'm cooling on my hate on Walker in that situation if Vegas has it for 7 and a half and 875 that I mean they're thinking that there's a POS there's a possibility that that offense could be halfway decent it's I'm I'm interested though because Rashad white is lower touchdown total lower or rushing yardage now we know he's a true pass catching back the pass catching man and that's what it is for Kamar too like you said you're cool yeah really low dude I don't anticipate that from him in the rushing game anyway 25 yeah yeah but I'll bro well there's but there's no way he's going to be on the field that much getting those catches have 625 yards rushing so they're projecting not a lot of workload not a lot of snaps lot we are we are undervaluing Naji Harris on I have him started right here 850 and 5 and a half and this was like I doubt they've adjusted for the injury they prob J went up I mean it's only been a week I think they bumped him up I think they would have 850 and 5 a half is nice um and he usually takes Vegas half a day to a day to adjust to to news like that so yeah I would say that's fully baked in in 850 and 5 a half like at RB what are we at here RB 24 on right now and half PPR like that I would just like to point out man of the the Pod Zack Moss 76 a half Z Moss baby that's a where's Chase Brown Chase Brown not even listed they're projecting him for zero yards and zero touchdowns I would have point out Deon single area 30 he's got the same numbers my boys a me white little scary yikes that's scary for white how are the touchdowns the same I mean the Giants aren't as bad as the as the Raiders right they don't expect them to score a lot of touchdowns all right this was awesome man hope you enjoyed the knowledge thank thank Rob for all this awesome prep that I do thank you Rob Rob the host with the most the man's got some allergies kicking his ass he's not