PRICE ACTION ANALYSIS of SPY DXY QQQ IWM APPLE and TESLA | 1/26/23

Price action trading on SPY hello nieces hello nephews it's your Uncle Charlie's here and welcome back to my YouTube channel where we do unbiased price action analysis and guys finally we got some follow through not just closing above that you know triangle pattern in that yearly trend line multiple times but actually giving us some more upside we got a hammer candle right here uh the body's kind of big body's kind of big you guys let me know if you guys would consider this uh a hanging a hangman candle a hanging man candle hanging man candles are usually bearish candles um but yeah body's kind of big the wick is small though we do got that long the top Wick is small do got that uh the bottom went pretty long you know so it's debatable some might call this a regular Hammer candle which is usually bullish some might call this a hanging man candle which is usually bearish okay but like we always say here Uncle Chad is his channel price action is the shepherd that's why I call us sheep style Traders but let's prepare so let's start first off this is how I traded on the 15 minute chart okay all my levels are based on the daily chart and weekly chart but I use a 15 minute chart because I am a day trader now I did not have the perfect uh trading day like I usually well I don't always do but more often than not I usually have a 100 accurate day keep in mind I only take one to two trades a day on those days okay I don't trade like eight to ten times and get 100 accuracy if I did I probably would not get 100 accuracy okay so today though unfortunately I took more trades than I have than I would have liked usually I want to take one maybe two trades get my level level move leave some runners in you know end the day green today was not the case okay so you can see here spy opened up right here on this candle at four they opened at 403 okay which make first resistant at 404 and first support at 402 402 was the 50 weekly moving average okay you can see we got that strong rejection very nice rejection on the first candle from 404 and then when it broke down uh 402 I alerted to the group on the Discord hey we got that first setup we want to break you wait for the first setup spy gave us the first setup of breaking down 402 which put 400 in play but as you guys can see on this candle we did not drop to 400 as a matter of fact the 10 o'clock candle recaptured that 402 level that's where I cut lost I was not happy about it but I cut loss and then I played the recapture try to play a false breakdown setup with full four as the price Target you guys can see here Winner's highest full 3.25 I actually had a Zone up here 43.52404 so I would have been willing to take profits at fall 3.5 for a level level move but as you can see it did not hit it and it dropped back below 402 guess what Uncle Charles got stopped out again at this point I was over two I was not happy but after years and years and years of practicing and training uh and trading the way I've been trading you know long in the breakout resistance short and breakdown support you know I know it's not going to be perfect and I say this to you guys all the time it's not 100 perfect there's going to be times where you're gonna have to cut laws not gonna work out 51 to 60 accuracy is all you need with good risk management so I had to cut my lost my loss twice here but finally on the third trade we broke down 402 again for the false recapture I played that and it dropped down to fall uh to 400 level finally I caught a nice level to level move because I was able to cut loss well and that took me years and years of practice this one trade right here from four two breakdown to 400 was able to give me put me back into the green very nice and then we bounced from 400 and what the uncle Charters do next 12 o'clock candle have recaptured the Fall 2 level I entered there okay let me put my arrows and today why did I enter there because I wanted to play the false breakdown of the 402 level you guys can see here cleared it had some chalk now this is what a lot of people struggle with had some Chop look at the 12 45 1 o'clock handle and 115 candle it washed below meaning it went below the 402 level but it did not close below the Fall 2 candle a level you guys can see with these candles close it did not close below it so therefore it did not hit my stop loss I cut loss when the candle closes below the level that I traded off of so if I if I'm longing breakout fall too and it closed below 402 that invalidated my trade I would have cut loss as you guys can see it did not close below four two another way that I caught loss is if I put my stop loss one dollar below where I entered okay so I was entering out the fall to breakout I actually entered around 402.2 it so my stop loss was around four one point two you guys can see spy went down to four one point sixes it never hit my price Target I continued to hold and it worked out for me all right I meant to I didn't even want to take I took I was two for four today I didn't even want to take that fourth trade but that's how it came out that's what I had to do all right and it worked out that's what you have to do sometimes stick to the strategy stick to the plan even when you think the plan it's not gonna work okay because it's a history of it working all right we're trading based on tendency spy has a tendency when it brings down support of going lower spy has a tendency when it breakout resistant and goes lower I did not make any of this stuff up I'm not Reinventing the wheel okay I'm just building on what's already made okay I'm just trying to master what I was taught and make it my own all right so two for four SPY BULL CASE now let's go to the daily chart all right guys can see that hammer candle y'all let me know is that a hammer candle bullish or is that a bearish hanging man candle I'm thinking that's a a hammer candle but either way we got that follow through you guys see this orange little zone right there that's I got um an area of liquidity higher time frame liquidity uh it's an uh indicator from the trading View and it just identifies with all the areas of liquidities are with possible stop losses are set and fall 5.5 is a zone that there is a liquidity there okay if that clears what's that 407 to 4E Zone it's pretty pivot highs okay previous paper high from back in November late November early December and of course speaking of early December we got that 4 10 or 4 10.5 Zone okay definitely a cell Zone up there and every liquidity around 4 11.7ish all right so yeah we could we got the close above that four four level that's definitely a support that I'll be watching 402 if I go to the weekly chart that 402 level is based on the 50 weekly moving average okay we got one more day guys based on a weekly chart we got one more day that spy needs to close above fall too for this to be considered a breakout all right so I don't consider this a breakout yet we still have one more trading day we do got the breakout off that down trend line that we had since December keep in mind it's gonna be a lot of people that's going to be watching this millions and million people like you and me that's gonna that possibly will get bullish now that will get bullish now that we see some follow-through all right pay attention to the news don't pay attention to the news based on what you should do based you know pay attention to the news based on what you shouldn't do in my opinion we got this breakout right a lot of people's watching it if the news start getting bullish talking about the bull market it's back y'all be careful okay because that's when they like to rug pull us at the end of the day price action is the shepherd price action has the final say and if you know how to read price action analysis which is what Uncle Charles try to do for us every day you will know how to manage your risk and you will not get rug pulled that's my opinion and I believe that and I stand by that okay so as long as above 402 stay bullish I already told you fall 2 is the 50 weekly moving average stay bullish above 402 full 5.5 and upper targets are in play as long as above 402 all right tomorrow bear case SPY BEAR CASE scenario here if spy drops back below 402 you guys already know that's a false breakout setup we got a false breakout setup on our hand here four below fall two put 400 which bounced today guys 400 showed strong buying pressure today so four two fails 400 would be the next take profit Target 400 fails that would be very bearish because we saw how well it tested as you know served as resistant all week today it gave us a strong bounce four dollar bounce over four dollar bounce so if that level fails that would be embarrassed okay 398.5 and 397 will be back in play based on my the the bear trend line the bear Market trend line and my triangle pattern that I have here okay below 397 and 398.5 bears Take Back Control false breakout setup and I will favor more downside 200 daily moving hours at 395. 50 weekly moving average excuse me 50 daily moving averages at 393 also I have this uh this pink trend line here that's connecting January 6 low to January 19th and January 20th low 393 will be the support of that breakdown 393 will be a breakdown of that trend line and I would favor a Tesla 390 388 and maybe we'll go test this trend line down here at 386. all right so keep it simple blowfall 2 bearish if it breaks down four two look too short if it got below 4-2 identify the next immediate support level which would be 400 398.5 and 397. if those level fails look too short play it level to level but below 397 or 398.5 is when I would swing uh shorts at least down to 393. all right below 393 with a 50 daily moving averages that we that fails I would swing another you know position of shorts and I would Target low targets down to 390 388 and maybe just maybe we'll go test 386 all right that starts with the breakdown of 402 below 398.5 and 397 Bears Take Back Control all right as long as above 402 stay bullish all right stay bullish if you're a bear biased Trader and the market is acting bullish still don't trade don't take any setups you don't like and wait for the right setup for you would be the false breakout setup all right not every false breakout move ends up being the top but every top started off being a false breakout just keep that in mind all right moving on to Triple Q QQQ triple Q broke five we got the breakout guys even though it's overbought this is not the ideal condition for a breakout it's my opinion because RSI is so overbought but a breakout is a breakout and it leads us to the next setup if it breaks out tomorrow it needs to stay above 293.5 it go test 290 uh 294.5 ish okay and that would put 296.8 to 297 Zone and play with uh 299.5 above that and 303.8 ish okay for me to get bearish on Triple Q I need to see a breakdown of support level starting with 290 uh 287.6 that's based on this green trend line here in it back and it's you know support it was support today and it held uh yeah below 287.5 ish would put 285 uh 282.5 281 and 277.5 in play all right that's triple Q as long as above 290 guys stay bolus 294 uh 294.5 is the next resistant let's see if we can break that out that's a fib level okay 295 294.5 is the FIB level let's see if we can go and tap that 299.5 to 300 level okay can't get bearish unless it's below 290 and especially that 287.5 and breakdown of this channel is around 285 now okay IWM iwm it closed above that 187.5 is level guys I think I've mentioned that to you it's the FIB level uh excuse me 187.6 that's 38.2 FIB level for iwm 187.6 we gotta close above that all right not the most impressive cold but it's a close above it that's considered a breakup so as long as above 187.6 the breakout holds 190 is the next resistant and if cleared 193 to 194th Zone in play okay look for puts only if 187.6 failed play that false breakout and we can see uh you know iwm drop back down to 185 183-ish um and 181.7ish all right bearish case for iwm starts at 187.6 fail for the false breakout settle right State bullets as long as above holy moly look TESLA at Tesla um yeah if you were trading shares I mentioned yesterday long the breakout of 146 if you was trading shares you might have been able to catch this move if you was you know bull buyers or something and Swinging calls you might have caught that move very nice move but you know if he was day trading Tesla today it was a bit difficult didn't get much of a move but uh you see that's a hangman that's a hanging man keep in mind guys hanging man usually bearish all right so it did close above the 159 resistant level though so if you're gonna break down you need to start with 159 157 and maybe if that fail uh I have I do have support at 153 150 um 150 148 and then the Gap fill around 146 is okay so the bear case scenario starts it can break back below 159 156 for a false breakout setup all right as long as above 159 157 lowest uh the next resistant level I got is at 161.5 for Tesla if that clears I think we can go test 167.5 ish and one uh yeah 167.5 is first 169 uh 173 and then possibly 175.6s all right that starts with 157 lowest holding all right and it has to clear that 161.5 APPLE resisted Apple okay so we got the breakout of that one uh what is this 143.5 resistant level that I've mentioned to you guys we got the Breakout won't breakout is not enough obviously okay gotta show follow through so as long as above 143.5 146.6 and 150 are the next targets for Apple okay I would look to short if 143.5 failed to play uh the false breakout setup with the next support at 141.8 140 and 138 below that all right let's take a look at the vix VIX & DXY um here's the vix showed some foul through today it broke down the 19.4 support yesterday today it treated that level as a resistance so it looked like it wants to go test the 18 level the 18 level maybe double bottom there but if it doesn't hold I do got a nice drop down to 15.38 as the next Target for the vix okay it needs to get above 19.4 to give us a false breakdown setup wait I don't do INTC there's a trade for my Discord guys but here is the dxy yeah it's still still pretty much chopping here still giving us you guys can see that still giving us the lower highs so it looked like it wants to break down at 101.5 level was testing it today we'll see if it does not hold 101.2 is the next Target I need to see it break this green trend line 102.1 is the breakout and should put 103 and 103.4 back in play okay let's end this with the option flow this filter Option flow for 500k premiums are above you see 78 78 mostly going into puts you can see here sweep order this is aggressive 2.8 million uh over 6 000 in size they entered around 42.3 ish but they got a 395 strike price for February 17th expiration date guys so you see big money still aggressively bet into the downside maybe maybe we're gonna drop that fomc you know maybe we're gonna rally up to fomc which is the end of January early Feb we also got apples earning which is a big chunk of the market you know 10 of spy you can see here big money that into the downside this is very aggressive this is very very aggressive in my opinion even though this one is a block order 10.9 million in premium over 22 000 in size they entered around the 289 level but 270 strike price for March 31st that's out the money now this one's even more aggressive because it's a sweep order 4.3 million in premium over 9 000 size also 270 strike flight strike price but this is a March 31st okay expiration date now to be fair to be fair we do got some sweep orders here as well for calls 300 strike price February 8 298 strike price on February eight this one 1.5 million 1.8 million both over 5 000 size so yeah the most aggressive place we are getting a mixture of results but the calls are a lot closer because they're February 8th while the puts are a little further out for March okay so you guys keep that in mind iwm nothing for iwm Tesla what's happening 73 in the puts for Tesla I'm looking at these contract nothing that really sticks out to me the way apples and triple Q did but yeah 73 percent in the puts for Tesla and 89 in the calls for Apple that's very interesting interesting there okay block order over 8.2 million in premium over 9 000 in size 136 strike price so this is a you know pretty in the money February 10th okay and let's see what the vix got nothing all right so that's what I got for you guys today make sure you guys add my level to your charts look too long when resisting clear look too short when support fail keep in mind the false breakouts and the false breakdown setups false breakouts you look for puts false breakdowns you look for calls play at level to level if you guys need help with mastering this trading style this system and want more content from Uncle Charles please consider joining my Discord I would love to serve you guys at an even higher level okay whatever is chop Trend day we make money level to level style let's get it peace