Tracking the tropics: Latest on Gordon, disturbances in Atlantic

hey everybody Fox 35 stormm team meteorologist s berren here on this 13th of September 2024 thanks for joining us on our website our apps and on our Fox local platform that's the app for your TV and also on our YouTube channel don't forget to subscribe and thanks for following us there all right let's talk some toopics now we've had a busy season overall but not in a clear way we had a several week break where uh you might give you the impression it's been a quiet season but I I'll show you the statistics it has uh been actually an active year in some manner to recap the season for you it started fast we had historic Barrel early July earliest Cat 5 ever June 28th to July 11th it caused 70 fatalities in nearly 7 billion in estimated damages so far this year despite that several week break in August we've now had three hurricane strike the US in 2024 Barrel was a cat one at landfall in Texas Debbie cat one in Florida Francine Cat 2 in New Orleans why is that significant well I'll tell you that in a second wind gust from Francine 105 Eugene Island 97 78 New Orleans International Airport MSY 70 downtown New Orleans So It produced a lot of strong winds hurricane Force this is just the ninth year we've ever had three hurricanes hit the US before September 12th so that's why I say uh this is well above average this is again the ninth time in known history and tropical records go back to about the mid 1800s uh from reanalysis and a variety of methodology uh 1915 16 33 34 85 04 remember your Florida climatology there that was Jean Francis and Charlie 05 Katrina Rita Wilma 2020 was previously the most active year on record and now this year so if any of these previous years already sign for how the rest of the season may play out despite that several week quiet spell unexpected that we had this here we' probably will see a ton more storms yet so certainly interesting to note the amount of landfalls through this point now specifically for Louisiana they've been going through a remarkably active period Florida had this back in the the 20s 30s and 1940s where there was like a just all Blitz of hurricanes hitting the state Louisiana since 2000 has now had eight cat twos or higher hit the state that's a lot Katrina in ' 05 is a cat 3 Rita 05 Gustav Laura Cat 4 Delta in 2020 Zeta Ida in 21 and now Francine in 2024 as a category 2 hurricane so where are the Redmonds tonight well they're swirling over Arkansas and Tennessee gusts in the 50 mph range in Memphis last night Nashville Western Kentucky Southeast Missouri been gust 4050 plus mph so there's the center of the low now look at all the dry air it's pulling down around the side that dry air up in the atmosphere will come over Florida later this weekend and next week and that will help to lower the daily chances for showers and storms so out across the Basin right now no new areas for development in the Deep Tropics this is the Outlook graphic for things that may form there's just one area here but it's close to the US it's a medium chance of development 40% storms are going to fire along a front this weekend and off of that a depression or a storm could form early next week regardless it'll not track towards Florida it will move Northwest but I personally do think a tropical storm probably will come out of this I think we'll see these odds go up from the hurricane center and that would get the name Helen let me show you an exclusive Fox Model notice the weekend a whole bunch of disorganized showers and storms but at some point look at the iso bars here by Sunday some kind of a low starts to consolidate and then once it does it starts to drift Northwest makes a little landfall here in North Carolina uh Monday or Tuesday so some Gusty winds tropical storm Forest couple of tornadoes some flooding yeah all all fair game somewhere between South and North Carolina heading into early next week and that would be tropical storm hen if it in fact does form speaking of the rest of the tropics there's Gordon right now 40 mph winds moving West Northwest at 10 but if you look yes there's a ton of convection with it you see those white and black colors indicating very tall thunderstorms in the atmosphere but look how the center is right here and look how all the storms are displaced to the east side it's because there's very strong wind shear west to east a Westerly wind shear in the atmosphere that's the storms are going up and they're feeling that West Wind and the storms are getting blown to one side that's why the storm is lopsided that's why it's not going to be much more than a tropical storm at least for the next few days here's the long track cone from the Hurricane Center it'll start to turn Northeast next week it may actually become a hurricane uh about maybe 10 14 days from now uh but it will not threaten UDA not threaten the Caribbean or the United States you see here the spaghetti models indicate a strong consensus of that hard right Northerly turn the middle of the next week so what else is going on out there well the waters are still warm in fact they're still at record highs in the gulf and the Caribbean uh there you could see Gordon right here there's a little tropical wave here there's a front and a non-tropical low here then there's those storms that have been sitting off the coast of the Carolinas so we'll watch this for the next week or two go north and then eventually we should start getting more of these waves coming off of Africa later in the month and I do think we'll see some development in the Caribbean the third to fourth week of the month sometime in the 25th 22nd to 30th range could start to see the Caribbean wake up so this year Alberto through Gordon so far hurricanes we've had several Barrel Debbie Ernesto Francine were hurricanes so Helen is next up again that could form off the coast of the Carolinas later this weekend then we get to those dreaded J JK name storms of Isaac Joyce and Kirk which in most years one of those is going to end up being a big bad hurricane it's just because of the odds and the numbers it's how it works the reason why is because those names often correlate the peak of the season so those are the storms we're going to keep an eye out for this year Isaac Joyce and Kirk then Leslie Milton from there all right so we're going to watch Gordon we're going to watch Helen then we catch a break and then the end of the month I think we'll see potentially something lift out of the Caribbean being and threat in Florida or go towards the Carolinas and I still do think that late September into October will be very active so here's all the storms this year you can see how like we've talked about they've all been closer to the US because of the steering flow over the Atlantic now we've had Francine you see it right here alaro and Chris earlier in the year Barrel earlier in the year and then there was Debbie that ended up in Upstate New York so that's your latest with the tropics here's your forecast for in Florida over the next few days Central Florida some storms Saturday afternoon and evening 90 90 on Sunday but notice those rain chances go down next week the just 40% Monday through Friday in Central Florida still not zero but the last two weeks rain chances daily have been about 70 80% so that's certainly an improvement in that department thanks for watching the tropical update we'll see you next time for Fox 35 I'm Storm Team meteorologist no berer