Aug 9 - future Gordon spaghetti models, Ernesto storm path, Gilma, Kirogi, US thunderstorms

hello there Taylor with the arm again report sir the big news tropical storm Ernesto now no longer hurricane but they're still torrential rains and flooded anticipated as an ester skirts the coaster Medicare near kill to Zack Caucasian border I don't know these names but if we go over here and we click on that we click on espanol then we can really pronounce it incorrectly you via strength geology ananda Sione's anticipation a medida que el nesto bhatia la costa de mexico sepka the coat Zack alack alack alack I'm not it so anyway Ernesto not to make light of it but that's what the screencast is all about isn't it but a nest they're making the the final the final like landfill or whatnot unless they're already crossed over here and they're making another landfill and they're so in fact might become one of these rare the storm systems that makes the cross from the Atlantic to the eastern Pacific I think though it would get an eastern Pacific name and I say that because let's look at the spaghetti models page button estes regather then we go there and then we see ernesto serve spaghetti more space this is why because this is a little bit less cluttered we'll look at these two so this is specifically for Ernesto certain this thing might make the jump so but don't know yet but what they do have in the eastern Pacific outlook right now is a ten percent chance of tropical cyclone formation and if we click on this then you get to read about it and now honestly I have no idea which one is what is it is this one a trough of low pressure along the west coast of Mexico could begin to interact with the remnants of atlantic tropical storm and nesto so right ten percent so what is an Esso right now and there's dumping buckets and buckets of you via could become I believe Hector Hector would be the next one right but there's a whole lot going on so I in case you're wondering what on earth is big stripes spaghetti models are back for the worst and Pacific what's the expression knock on wood hopefully the new server found won't be so crash happy or whatnot so what's going on as we've got this little chance of tropical cyclone formation over here where it's crossing the international date line so it's starting out there and then ending up there but because the mapping system can't handle it it crosses the long way to get across the international date line right so we've got karoge stood out then hopefully not affecting land much and that by the time because at some point you know karoge gonna hit some cool waters of what not so let's get back to here so the biggest news aside from the nest oh land wise land impacting lives would be this thing eighty percent chance in fact some of these spaghetti models have been showing similar paths of what the nester took so it could potentially affect a lot of the same regions and what's really confusing I don't know if it's still doing that but it was calling this earlier the spaghetti model the raw data was calling it tropical or not they weren't they were calling it 0 7 so they were pretending that it had already officially become the seventh storm of the Atlantic season but Pat they not I don't know if that's a bug or what they just got a little bit over anxious or whatnot over here in the Atlantic we've got ten percent that's the remnants of Florence and then this is the father's back to the east I've ever seen them put a probability area at twenty percent so this would be probably most likely this would be the one that would become Gordon the next one is is it Helene I think it's Celine because if Hector you know those are the only names I've memorized it would go over here so we've got potentially Gordon showing up soonish and then Helene now this one this one right here go back to it if that regenerates I'm pretty sure it just we gets reclaims the name of Florence since that is the remnants of Florence I do believe writing then over here we've got ten percent chance and yeah and then of course it's hurricane Gilner the Gilman not affecting land at least hopefully not you know good eventually make the trip to Hawaii but with the surface temperatures the way they were all the way they tend to be out in Hawaii the likelihood that it would you know really cause an impact every cane level impact very low so yes that's what's going on now so Ernesto and yellow stuff and red stuff yellow stuff that was very scientific when naming colors it sir so I don't know it's Rojo and whatever yellow is a Spanish obviously I need to brush up on the three words of espanol that I know so over hit but Oklahoma back in the bullseye again with the red flag warning so red flag warnings that means conditions are favorable that of fires get set and unfortunately sometimes they get set by humans and then of course it could be you know like it's just I don't know if something sets itself on fire because somebody had a magnifying glass and they left it out in the wrong place or something anyway the point is red flag warnings mean Thyer conditions are favorable sir fires get set they can spread quite quickly look at that 102 degrees sir Oklahoma City each very hot and then red flag warnings back here for the potato state as well and then what L mean isn't ah it's just hot it's the the it won't ever end will it I don't know what I just click on five miles west of Moran Wyoming I did know and then back here we've got excessive heat warning self this summer that just won't end with the drought to the hot temperatures the red flag warnings is this it's the end of summer we don't want it to be in the summer and that's what of course we're off from school and then somehow the drought says oh it's too dry to go back to school everybody just you know stay home for another couple months right severe thunderstorm was what's going on we've got a whole bunch of you know states or what not affected by so that was today only a tube set chance of a tornado no watches in effect however 21 warnings as of the time they loaded the page look at all these difference if a thunderstorm warnings going on and some flash floods fortunately though no tornado warnings because that's what really draws the crowd of oh my god stuffers happen the severe thunderstorm warnings can actually be more destructive but yes so here's what's going on for wind chats today so let's compare to the hail thing so the hill thing drops out these states but basically here's your fifteen percent chance of severe winds that be 58 miles per hour greater fifteen percent chance of hail that'd be one inch larger and then two percent chance of a tornado where penny it's Indiana Ohio pittsylvania edge of New York with a two percent chance so we could say if you're not familiar often numbers you say this random point where my mouse is an Ohio in the two percent area that means that there's a two percent chance of that random point or someone within a 25-mile radius of them or see a tornado today so by far the bigger numbers are the fifteen percent tornado and fifteen percent wind inhale not tornado and hail right tomorrow it moves farther to the east with a slight risk again turning a whole bunch of states affected by five percent as well and then back here with a five percent day after tomorrow at least as of now they're showing it tapering off where they've got only the five percenter and it's from the far the Kirsten and over here days four through eight predict ability to learn so there is something and look it's even broken up by the day day for Sunday Monday Tuesday so if you read that you can find out you know what specifically they're looking at but in general it means as timing and a location is not yet certain enough of them them being the Storm Prediction Center to have put something on the map right up severe weather TV com is the official homepage of the screencast or whatnot yes and then wicked wicks is of course WI cked WX calm you can also get severe thunderstorm news from whether or not girls storm prediction center cyclic cane and cyc LLC A&E calm where we'll be tracking what may be what what is it again Gordon tropical storm Gordon I'm betting this thing is gonna officially a bit cold a storm it would not necessarily storm storm I'm betting it's going to be officially a tropical cyclone shortly right so what's going on today hopefully you're not affected by anything too dramatic or Morton yeah helpfully if you want to touch it area you get some kind of hurricane over land which is just not going to happen except in the movies right that's it for today enjoy yourself