Aaron Judge and Juan Soto Are Having an All-Time Great Season

Intro Begins [Music] [Music] welcome to rates and barrels it's Tuesday August 27th Derek V rer enois BR Ry all here with you on this episode we discuss the Yankees visiting the Nationals and late August what has us interested in that series there's some pretty interesting stuff happening with Aaron judge and Juan sto plus it's a return to DC for Juan sto oh and the arrival of Dylan Cruz so a lot is actually happening in that series some news that happened last week that we have not discussed on the show Perry Manan extended by the Angels so we'll discuss what the Angels could do to try and get back into postseason contention in these next two seasons it's a two-year extension and we're going to build off that and look at some other front office groups that might be on the hot seat as this season winds down and as we look ahead to 2025 or some teams that look like they're going to be on the outside looking in at playoff spots this year so we begin today with the aforementioned Yankees Nationals series now Dylan Cruz's arrival was something we talked about from a skills perspective yesterday and I think when you look at the big picture when you see the lineup as it's written out you see like half of a really good big league lineup or at least half of a lineup you can get excited about CJ Abrams looks like a great piece from that Juan sto tray we talked about that a lot James Wood looks like a potential Superstar it's having a great rookie season so far it's great to see him there you add Cruz you have your Catcher And kebert Ruiz you're starting to find some secondary pieces that might be around that young core and there's still more to come in that system Brady house isn't far away from joining them so it does feel like everything is trending in the right direction though I think the last time we talked about theats we said hey their rebuild might be ahead of schedule I think ever since then they've played about 400 bball so we've really uh put the clamps on what looked like a promising season all this is to say when you tune in to watch a gats game right now how do you feel compared to how you felt at the end of last season Britt you're around this team a lot have the Vibes changed at least in terms of this is going to take a long time to hey we've got something here and even if we're not a playoff team in 2025 we're going to be a lot more competitive and our next great Core is coming together yeah I think the Vibes are really good and you know I I kind of disagree with it I think the rebuild is ahead of schedule I don't think we talked on the show like they were going to make the playoffs this year um the people that I talked to were always pretty bullish on the fact that even when they got out to a hot start people in the organization were like listen we've got a whole bunch of young guys who have never pitched this deep into the season who have never pitched this many innings like their pitching early on is I think what surprised a lot of people and that was never going to hold up over the course of a of a full Big League season but they saw a lot of encouraging things Kate cavali uh is another big guy for them who should be back at some point uh next year he's a guy who had Tommy John surgery uh a top pick of there so you are seeing these pieces come together a lot of this was the WAN SoDo uh Max Sher try Turner trades so I think that this team is headed in the right direction I think they um are a team that needs to now this winter go out and spend some money in free agency go out and convince the fan base that we are trying to win this window is starting and a lot of that comes back to ownership an ownership group that was selling the team now isn't selling the team I think this is a pivotal winter in DC to kind of show that okay the young guys are here now how are we going to supplement them how are we going to help them because even if you said even if they're not a playoff team next year they're going to be a competitive team they should be a competitive team the parameters are in place for them to be one and you would hate to see them squander away another season because ownership doesn't think they're quite there yet and does want to dip a toe in free agency yeah I agree I think that they're uh I think they're actually set up in a funny way to with the the same plan as last time yeah you know like if you look at this team you're like oh you have everything you need except for maybe Frontline pitching you know like I like DJ herdz he has a nice change up command's not so great I like U Mitchell Parker he's fine um you know I think Josiah gray is a good backup backend H guy I Kate cavali if things break right could be you know more of a maybe even a one but like the command wasn't great the first time we saw him so I I think that enough flaws and then Gore I like him a lot but the secondaries that haven't come together they're all like sort of they could really slot in two through five you know like this would this team would look so much better like a strawber at the top you know like I think it would make so much sense for them to you know throw a bunch of money at one of the best starting pitcher candidates that's out there what's nice is $35 million comes off the books in Patrick Corbin Alone um and they're not they're they're guys are so young that they're not about to get expensive um you know I guess CJ arams is going to go into the first year of arbitration but he's not that he's not GNA get he'll get like three million or something you know so it's not you know they're not going to get super expensive and they could surprise people this off season by getting a Frontline starting pitcher and people being like oh are they ready for this but I think they absolutely are the only really hole that I see offensively when I look at their depth chart is maybe third base and you know uh they could maybe put to put together a third basem that works um or also address that in free agency maybe put a veteran there otherwise you know I know kri Riz hasn't hit like he want to and Jacob young is probably not a big hitter um but Jacob young is great defensively and um you know I don't really see a big problem anywhere uh offensively and then bullpens just come together when they come together so this is this is a team that is you know is ready to spend on a Frontline starting pitcher just like they did before I think yeah actually the player I didn't mention is part of that core is Luis Garcia having a great year three War player I mean 15 homers 20 steals like everything seems like it's working for him it's one more guy they can look at as and a part of that everyday group I think the the temptation to follow the the template that worked last time is absolutely there and the appetite for spending is a bit of an unknown we don't know if the pocketbook will be as open as it was before but in an offseason where you're going to have Corbin Burns Max freed probably Blake Snell opting out rookie Sasaki could leave his team in Japan although I there's there's still some questions as to whether that happens this winter or next winter and then it's is he actually gonna go to the gats or would he go to a place more like the Dodgers like all those questions there will be some pitching available if they want to do this it's just a matter of how much they want to spend to make it it happen so yeah it looks like pieces are coming together and as Brit said the pitching was great to begin the year at least a lot better than we expected it to be but we kind of wondered at the time like okay is this GNA work all year or our team's gonna catch on and similar to what we saw with the Red Sox like teams adjusted to what the gats pitching staff was doing and started to put some runs on the board against them more consistently not not a all a shocker but I think an organization that's doing a lot of things right right now on the other side of this Aaron judge and Juan sto just continue to do amazing things and it's easy to look at any teammates any two teammates three teammates look at the Dodgers currently and great cores around the league and just think yeah they're all they're all kind of similar right like they're just Allstars they're they're perennial Allstars plenty of teams have multiple perennial Allstars but I think we're losing sight of just how good Aaron judge and Juan stto have actually been this year so you know you How Good Is This Season From Aaron Judge & Juan Soto? did some digging historically speaking are we seeing something special from Aaron judge and Juan stto in 2024 oh 100% And you know uh one way of saying it as well look at the top 200 baseball seasons of all time you know just the top top 200 baseball season right now Aaron judge is like in the top 15 of all time uh and oh Juan stto is a lowly like 100 140th still one of the top 200 baseball seasons of all time so if you look in the top 200 baseball season of all time you look for people who are on the same team you get this list and it's amazing because you see Aaron judge and Juan stto at the bottom of the list 2024 the last time anybody has been as good as them on the same team was 1942 when Ted strong and Bonnie sell on the Kansas City monarchs uh beat the Grays in the world serers with Satchel Page pitch in every game you know that was 1942 and before that you have Josh Gibson and buck Leonard Josh Gibson won consecutive Triple Crowns and they were called the black babe ruth and the black l garig or the dynamite twins so like they are you know the second coming of Babe Ruth and luk gar who did it in 1930 and 1931 and 1928 1927 so you know Aaron judge Juan stto are kind of the second coming of of Ruth and garri uh but there're also a lot of really fun names on this list um in 1921 Oscar Charleston uh won one of his three Triple Crowns which is the most uh in baseball history they and and he and Charlie Blackwell both hit over 430 for the same team uh in 1927 Ed riy and turkey Sterns they had better names back then uh Ed RS hit over 400 but he also went 11 and six with a 243 for the Detroit Stars uh my favorite factoid is mule subtles on a team where they had three guys in the top 200 ever uh the St Louis stars in 1928 mule subtles used a 50 ounce bat and hit 500 foot homers and hit a ball out of the stadium and into the ocean in Havana one time um so it's just a a really really great list of players mostly Negro League and then B Ruth Lugar and then Aaron judge woto 60 years later and and this is you know the age difference the the the year Gap that's free agency it's really hard I think to get two guys this good in the prime of their career on the same team in free agency like this and so I think that's you know that's a that's a sort of an as risk on this which is like wow like that's why it's so hard to do this right and we've seen other Seasons that are really good combinations of guys with like 140 150 WRC pluses but you're seeing multiple teammates having top 200 all time Seasons That's the basically 180 plus uh WRC plus and and for Aaron judge juano they combined for a 207 WRC plus that's better than babe uh and Lou garri in all but one Seasons they're basically tied uh right now for the the best um you know like American or or national league uh Duo of all time wow and basically also like we're talking about two players that are number one and number two in war and all at baseball so how often does that happen right or the two best players in baseball are up there so you're right it's hard to think about how rare this is and then you hear some of those names on those stories and you're like oh my gosh like you know I think it's rare to have one of these Seasons what Aaron judge is doing without Juan SoDo what Wan SoDo is doing without Aaron judge um is a season where we'd all be you know chasing you know what was going on and judge certainly on nights he doesn't Homer like last night but he takes away a homer it still feels like oh he's stuck at 51 because everyone is now involved in this um so I think um what we're seeing right now is so cool even if you're not a Yankee fan even if you're just if you're just a baseball fan even if you hate the Yankees I think you have to appreciate what these two guys are doing um in terms of you know getting into relatively Uncharted Territory in baseball and also for a guy like judge like if he comes near This Record again if he breaks his own record again I mean where are we ranking this guy on the alltime greats is is he already on the Yankees Mount Rushmore is he just outside of that group because it feels like as much pressure as he's getting we almost don't really appreciate how good he is he's now got to be considered among the Yankees alltime greats no especially if he makes a real run at that record again yeah I mean he's already hit 50 homers for the third time being at 51 this year injuries have kept him from maybe making run at that more than he has but the the career numbers now for Aaron judge are 28845 606 it's pretty amazing to see it laid out like that I think for the Mount Rushmore question that could be a whole episode unto itself but I think he's starting to put together a resume where he has a place in that conversation and even two years ago that may have been laughed at so y that gives you an idea of just how he's been to play up to that level and doing it on the wrong side of 30 too right like this is this is a part of a career where a lot of players are beginning to decline and Aaron judge seems to be living right in that Peak which is huge with this Yankees team right I mean part of what I think people lose sight of too is because the Yankees aren't running away with the AL East I think there's this misconception about just how good those two guys are if those guys weren't playing at the level they were at they wouldn't be flirting with best record in baseball right they've got one more loss in the Dodgers entering play on Tuesday same number of wins they're in that conversation anyway it's The Supporting Cast that's been a little bit inconsistent right we know Stanton missed time with an injury when that happened we talked about how he's been their third best hitter he's important to them Austin Wells has been a pleasant surprise but we've got guys like gabber Torres and Anthony vulpi Alex Verdugo even Anthony Rizzo even if he wasn't going to be great was supposed to be good he's been hurt hasn't been that guy The Supporting Cast has been a bit of a problem getting jez Chism back quickly from that elbow injury is interesting because if he's the guy he was post trade and even before they acquired him that's a huge lift for a lineup that needs just a little bit more from its Supporting Cast to be completely problematic top to bottom and the other part of this too is I think people are wondering well how much does An Interesting Look at Lineup Protection from Saber Seminar having SoDo on the roster with judge help Aaron judge because a lot of conversations in our circles you know have about lineup protection and and not being able to really quantify how much it matters right that's that's sort of been the question but there was another presentation at the saber seminar you went to this weekend that started to point toward the possibility of there being a way to actually prove it yeah uh it was a great presentation that looked into um the question of lineup protection in a way that I hadn't seen before um and they found that um that lineup protection exists and it's not it doesn't exist the reason I think that people haven't found it in the past um is that um it doesn't really exist for like 80% of baseball and if you think about it that makes sense like if you're pitching to uh Alex Verdugo and glabber Torres is behind him like how much are you thinking about glabber Tes you're just like let me get Alex fugo out right you know what I mean like it it doesn't exist for those guys uh but what this study found was that it does exist for the very elite and that the difference between the the batter who's batting um and the batter behind them uh if it's large and the player themselves is sort of a top five top 10 Perc player then it does matter and that lines up with our intuition right like if you're pitching to judge and Alex Verdo goes behind him yeah you're thinking about Alex Verdugo a little bit and you're just like I'm not gonna I'm not going to throw to him so much so um I'm trying to find the uh the the the piece here but I thought it was a really good way of looking at it because um you know that makes sense that you know we've we've we've seen some other studies that say lineup protection comes from the guy in front of you and so it's easier to hit with men on base there's Defenders can't defend you the same way and then also what we've seen even from this year is that when Runners are on base for Aaron judge he gets 20% more fast balls down the middle you know so when zanotto getting on base is helping Aaron judge the people behind him and Aaron judge is helping Wan sto because nobody wants to pitch around Wan sto and get to Aaron judge but what's amazing about what Aaron judge is doing is he's not being protected and it looks like there's research that suggests that you know that matters now so um you know I I I think that that just makes makes it even better that uh that he's doing this uh Alex oppel o p p l did a a thing on it it was great uh and I think I think it lines up with what we think intuitively so judge is so good even when they're trying to pitch around him he's hting homers yeah and it's even when you think about it I mentioned the Stanton injury like can you name the seven cleanup Name the Yankees' Seven Cleanup Hitters in 2024 hitters that the Yankees have had behind Aaron judge because it's been Soto judge 23 as the default all season but seven different players have been in that number four spot obviously one of them pretty much yeah but I was really surprised when we were getting ready for this Alex Verdugo with 49 starts in the cleanup spot has been used the most in the cleanup spot of any Yankees player so far this year more recently it's been Stanton he's been healthy around Stanton's injuries I think Austin Wells started to get those that's why Stanton's health is actually an underrated part of this team's future in the playoffs and the rest of the rest of the season because I think it is a little bit harder to pitch around judge if got to get Stanton it's not like Stanton is you know judge but he's you don't really want to now face Stanton with like two or three men on base you know yeah yeah because Stanton still just hits missiles like he still owns the the statcast era in terms of just top end power production but yeah those seven hitters Alex Verdugo John Carlo Stanton austino teses JS Austin Wells 19 times yeah and who did who's the last person you're saying uh glaber Torres Anthony Rizzo JD Davis even a handful of times J D Davis who was on the team for like a week yeah yeah been a problem the Verdugo Wells combination has been a problem as of late for Yankees fans like it's just not they need like you guys are right they they need like one more hitter to really I mean I know you'd ideally like just a deeper lineup in general but just one more hitter would extend them I think enough that they weren't just a team that was like judge and SoDo if judge and SoDo don't perform they have a hard time winning I'd love to know their record when judge and SoDo have like one hit between the two of them or no hits right um they do seem like they have that one if they stretch that line up just a little more and you mentioned Stanton like he's capable still now of like going on tears he's had little mini tears here so I like I like Torres Torres is showing some signs of Life he's a little bit better recently uh but there's been like Yankee fans have been wondering like you know should you have inz up here like what should you know Anthony Anthony vul's been you know I think a little bit of a disappointment that they were hoping he'd take a bigger step forward this year uh offensively so I think that they've really gotten lucky with these two guys and then everywhere else it seems like these guys have not been able to to meet those expectations at all and they've only been able to cover for it like you said Derek I think they wouldn't even be a playoff team if you took judge and and SoDo out of the lineup forget the best record in baseball I don't think they'd be a playoff team they'd be a fringey wild card team at best if those two guys were not on the team right now I mean what do they combine struggle to score runs yeah yeah what I mean it's you know how many how much more do these two combine for I think they'd be totally out of the playoff race yeah I think you're at like 16 wins above replacement combined with those two guys right now I do think Jason Dominguez should be a part of this sooner rather than later I mean there's reasons to like vulpi there's reasons to believe Torres could rebound there's a lot of things you can look at and say that could also get better and you could have that confidence you had one more Dynamic guy I mean I I like vulpi too but like I If it's gonna happen for him it's not necessarily gonna happen this year but that's Jazz for me I think Jazz could be that Dynamic piece they and they have them Beyond this year too which is really nice like they it's not wasn't a rental was an actual move to help them Beyond this season too so really like forgetting about jazz I think it was the injury and stuff and he's just not been a Yankee in like and he got back quicker than expected too at the time of the injury happened you know we didn't know if he was even going to come back this year so I think that's been the the pleasant surprise one other thing is uh the Yankees are one of two teams averaging more than five runs per game this year so despite all of the shortcomings of the guys behind Soto and judge they're the second highest scoring team in baseball the Diamondbacks are the only team that have outscored them every time I look at Arizona's run production stats this season I'm surprised this is yet another time even with all the previous times I've been surprised I'm still surprised to see them a top that list they're the opposite too of the Yankees right like I mean I guess catel Marte is a is like a he's gonna get MVP votes right but you know it's not like a dynamic duo or whatever I mean the the two leaders in WRC plus are catel Marte and jock Peterson you know instead it's more the fact that they are a non like a no zeros offense you know they have uh among their top players I'm G to I'm going to I'm going to shoe horn Corbin Carol into League average he's at 97 WRC plus let's give him League average he has been more like that he's been better than League average recently uh that gives him one two three four five six seven eight nine 10 regular players with a better than 100 WRC plus and if you count Josh Bell who's been that while he's been there that's 11 so that's just a lot of depth it's a lot of good players they kind of paper cut you to death I think right without anyone in the top five right I mean they just really yeah they're a very very deep lineup I think we I mean we did this last time when we put together the NL West talk and then we totally forgot about Arizona like it it's I mean could they win the West they definitely could they pitch they hit they're a pesky team I think they just don't have that star power which is why we like they never register on the national Consciousness right they're in Arizona uh one they're in a smaller Market a market that's not quite as rabid and you know they get overtaken by the star power of the Dodgers and certainly you know the Padres as well so they that's a really interesting point how deep that lineup is because you if you were to ask me I mean we talked about this yesterday but if had I not known would you guys have guessed Arizona I'd have like three or four teams ahead of them before I I was my my 12-year-old son and he was like what yeah and he's like a big NLS fan like and he loves Corbin Carol and it's like he was so surprised yeah we've been proven Wrong by the Diamondbacks a half dozen times at least on this show and still wouldn't have guessed that they were the highest scoring team on a per game basis this season it's just one of those things but that depth is huge it's kind of like what the Orioles do and I think if Corbin Carroll gets back being the player he was for last season which is absolutely possible if he's that Superstar it's a lot like the Orioles build where Gunnar Henderson sort of your Superstar standout guy and then you've got that great Supporting Cast behind him right just no easy no easy bats for opposing pitchers as they try to navigate that lineup let's move on to the bad place it's not bad in the sense The Angels Extend Perry Minasian, Will Payroll Rise in 2025? that you know Perry manan's necessarily bad but it's surprising I think to some that Perry was given a two-year extension with the angels now I think the angels are a very difficult team to evaluate a gm4 they've burned through a lot of GMS in the Ary Mareno era so Perry getting two more years right now well I think Mak him the longest 10e GM of anyone who's started and finished in the AR Mareno ownership era for the Angels wow yeah right because it's it's just the four five years tends to be the norm so he'll go longer than that if he's there for the next years but what if you know that also like you know that going in if you take that job that means that you're not on any sort of six-year plan you're on like a three-year plan because you're like I'm not I need to get re-up again and year four or five you know yeah I I think what what's probably challenging about the Angel's job aside from you never feeling like you have the full support of getting the resources you want for Player Development coaching in certain aspects that make an organization consistently better is that you get a pretty good payroll most years and I think that elevates the expectations from Ry if Arty has a top 10 payroll most years he's going to expect big results and if you don't get big results then you lose your job so I do think what's what's tough is you know Perry's there in the era where sh Otani leaves a free agency I don't think that's Perry's fault I think any reasonable person would say sure Perry would have given Shi every single dollar the Dodgers did if he could and it wasn't it probably didn't come down to his P say right it was just something that was out of his control the Mike Trout injuries are not the fault of any person in the front office it's just something that's happened it's unfortunate right so then you start looking at the bigger picture and say okay what about like trades and Drafting and some of the strategy and philosophical approaches of this front office do we think there's enough good there to believe that in these next two years with typical resources there are a few moves that can be made to get the Angels contending in the AL West again and possibly back into the postseason isn't that unreasonable because there are some things that have worked right the Brandon Marsh trade to get Logan ohappy was a really good trade on the flip side making that push last year for Lucas G Alo and giving up Edgar Caro Kai Bush that wasn't great because they ended up purging the roster and they were pretty far out of at the time right so you have some good you have some bad the rushing players the big League's approach with Zack Netto looks like that's worked really really well with Nolan Shanel I think the jury's probably still out and I think Eno and I have talked about the ceiling being probably a little lower than we'd like for a player at first base but you can at least see glimmers of like good decision making and the possibility of a core coming together and then you just have this open question much like you do in DC of is this team going to spend like it has historically this season opening day payroll is down around 170 million usually and going back to even just one year the angels are in the top 10 in spending they were at like 212 in 2023 so is Perry going into this off season with a chance to make a run at top end pitching or some of the free agents that could bolster this roster in a hurry I think it's possible for them to be competitive I don't know if it's sustainable unless they are investing under the hood they to me are very similar to the white socks um and that Jerry Ryan dorf who owns the white socks will invest in the big league team the White Sox have carried payrolls before what he won't invest in and what Ry we know doesn't like to invest in is the stuff under the hood the minor leagues right they were the Angels were one of those teams that during Co remember didn't want to pay their minor leakers had to be shamed into paying the minor leakers furl their employees almost right away um you know Player Development is has been an issue there so I think the problem is you see this big fancy house that they built AKA their big league payroll over the years and it looks really good but it's built on a shaky foundation and then we wonder why you know the first storm comes along and the house just gets leveled I think that is what the Angels or ation has been now I don't think that's necessarily on Perry I think a lot of front office Executives want to start there know that you have to start there gone to the days where you can't have where where you can just will your way in free agency to a good team we've seen that crash and burn we've seen it Crash and Burn many times my question and I don't know you know if you've done digging on this is like is there Player Development better are they putting resources into analytics down there into better coaching down there um are they starting to innovate and not just trying to play catchup which is what the white socks do like oh all other 30 you know 29 other teams are doing this I guess it's time for us to start doing it that's not how you win you win by pushing the envelope you win by investing in the infrastructure and you win by doing those little things right in the margins because that is what pays off and that's what keeps you know the injuries that always happen at the big leg level that's what keeps these organizations going is having that kind of depth and the angels just haven't had that over the years so I think they can get lucky and stumble into know winning season here and there and a lot of that is that division Seattle's a mess Oakland's a mess right Houston it feels like you know has been the only sustainable winner out of there in a while and they're not very good and they're still probably going to win the AL West um I feel like the Angels could stumble into a year or two but we're not going to see that consistent success until they apply that to the the real you know stuff that people don't see that foundation of the organization it has to be a place where people want to go where new ideas are accepted where they take care of people that's how you change a culture I don't know if that's being done in Anaheim yeah and I you know uh given Perry's you know history uh which is really interesting uh just coming all the way up from being like a Clubby I think he I think he you know Hughes close to players and Scouts and I think that's his strength um but at the same time when you have players in Anaheim that have won there uh who have an outsized voice what happens what ends up happening is they want to make the organization in the shape of the last organization that won there you know and it's that becomes a little bit retrograde and my example for this is just that they did hire some really interesting names and uh they had a couple guys um Dylan axod and I forget the other name they had two two kind of pitching directors that were a little bit more Progressive were more about the numbers and that um I personally had plenty of players uh reach out to me and say you know those guys were the best coaches we had they were let go because a former player said why is everybody on their laptops you know why why is there all this data in tech let's just get out you know and so you know if you if you get if you just let that voice uh determine too much of your future then you're just not going to be on The Cutting Edge when comes to Player Development that's that's been the long-term thing and I know that they've been trying to change that but when you have you know they make these little forays into it and then they just give up really quickly um it means to me that uh you know I don't really trust their minor league so they minor league development and so when you say like you know it's easy for me to say like okay the Angels they're good up the middle you know they've got Zack Netto theyve got Logan ohappy like they they've got you know potential center fielders that can play well like they've got got they're good up the middle they've got some pieces Christian Moore is raking in double A like they're going to push him and all of a sudden hey you got a keystone combo that's pretty good and like you could see it you oh Kaden Dana Kaden Dana is uh pitching you know he's got a a 252 ra and doublea and striking out 27% of the guys but I don't know if Kaden Dana's stuff is actually Major League ready and I don't trust them you know to produce an ace if they did if they produce an ace you'd be like oh what if they drafted the next Paul skines and added that to their Caden Dana and all of a sudden they have pitching and trout has like a resurgent year and it's healthy for a year you could kind of like tell a story where the Angels were good for a year but I you know I don't I like I agree with you on that I don't I think there's like there could be a year there's good but I would say that this this organization is still you know um you know on the hot seat I mean if you if you were going to talk about GMS on the hot seat I think you would you would kind of include Perry because he you know he needs to be changing things on the player development level and and and I I think like sort of pointing to Netto and pointing to more is more like well you scouted those guys and you gave them really high picks so it's not necessarily that's not a development win where are the like relievers that you turned out of nothing where are the like you know pitchers you claimed on the waiver wire that you turned into you turned into a third or fourth starting pitcher you know that's that's Player Development that's coaching and I haven't seen as much of that and that's where I think just using the gats as one of the other comparisons I do think britz call like Angels White Sox a lot of similarities in terms of of ownership relative to like what ownership thinks and what ownership wants to do and then what constraints you have to kind of work with to make it happen there but even with the Nationals I think we're seeing a little bit of growth in terms of their ability to churn out some other big Leaguers even if they're not taking fourth round draft picks and turning those players into Stars they are finding ways to develop pitching ways they haven't in the past right that's where I think Improvement DJ Herz came over for two months of oh man and yeah they're they've been trading guys away and they like they've been turning them those guys that they get back into players which we know that 80% of the guys that get traded at the trade deadline don't turn into players they I think Shan dittle has been really good for the Nationals in kind of Bridging the uh digestible like taking like the whole eye pitched with like I'm really into the analytics because the that'ss worse late to that game I think Sean ditt has done a nice job of at the big league level helping those guys where they didn't have that resource before uh but yeah I think I think listen I think the Nats are in a much better situation both organizationally and from the ownership level uh than the white socks of the angels are I mean those are those are jobs that unless I think ownership changes hands it's going to be almost impossible to field a sustainable winner because you're talking about you know two old guys who own that team who just like aren't going to change you're not going to change how you feel you know for the Angels it's like what is it 02 that they won um and they kind of celebrate that team and then for the white socks it's like 2005 and you know you have all these people that are still in the organization and that ownership surrounds thems with that say like well we did it this way and we won we can do it again um and you can't the game has changed too many people are innovating it's you know the equivalent of you know I had a a major league manager float to me like it's like imagine being in the SEC saying like we're not going to change anything we're you're a new school you get in the SEC and you're like we're not upgrading our facilities we're not going to upgrade our coaching staff we're going to do it like this because we won 10 years ago like this people would Riot like you have to be Innovative you have to at least do what your competition is doing and the teams that don't are so far behind the eightball um you know can you win without good analytics yes but it's a lot harder why would you want to make it even harder to win consistently at the big league level yeah yeah yeah there's a there's a quote out right now that U um Chris grats thinks the U the bullpen is a priority and I just I don't see I I always want to give I want to give everybody in a front office a little bit of Grace when they're asked questions that they don't want to answer and they have to say something there must be some context missing sometimes you just spit something out and then everybody just goes with that because that's what you said like I I think that can happen sometimes other like maybe just listing them among the many priorities but it it it shouldn't be top five or six anyway um you know and this is kind of I think we're laughing about that with the White Soxs the angels are a little bit better team you know a little bit better or better big league roster right now and that's in a year where they've had Mike Trout missing a lot of time again but in the time that he was healthy showing that he at least still has some game-changing power and if they can find a way I don't know if it's possible but if you can find a way with the DH we've talked about this before to get 130 140 games out of Mike Trout in a few of these upcoming Seasons that goes a long way towards pushing you back toward a a level of respectability that if you then tack on the right combination of couple free agents and a trade or two you actually could be pretty decent again but it it's not going to be as easy as it should be for a payroll that size for the reasons we outlined and by the way that trade it wasn't CJ Edwards it was Jimmer candelario but a rental you turn a rental infielder into a long-term possible starter that's a pretty huge trade just to start fixing your flaws yeah the uh and the cryon tells me uh that I should be talking about will the Angels return to the 2023 spending levels and I have been thinking about this I've been looking at their payroll page and my guess is that if you were going to return to not necessarily Peak spending levels because that might be aggressive considering I don't know if you think this team is was is is at that level but if you return to previous spending levels they might have $30 million now you know to spend this offseason maybe 40 I don't know that $40 million turns this team around I mean what do you do with your $40 million I think you you really want to focus on pitching so let's say they maybe say you you listed some of the names freed Burns let's say yeah you get one of those guys let's let's say you went to the the mat and and got one of those guys for $30 million for five years five and 150 or something maybe you you went to that for Snell because you're like that you know the other guys might take more you know so there goes $30 million what what are you doing with the other 10 um you need a second baseman uh your they're gonna play they're gonna play Christian Moore at second base for I think most of and I guess you'll just play randone you know and ohop and shuel still got Reno so you can play Reno Taylor W's pretty good I I guess you could you would buy an outfielder right now their DH is Nico kavadas or Brandon Drury like buy one more bat because the bullpen could come together Joyce is good contras has been better in the bullpen you just hope your Bullpen you put some guys in the bullpen they get better so I I guess a 10 million dollar bat but what's a $10 million bat it's not even necessarily A League average guy it's like a jamer candle Ario if we look back at last sign Justin Turner for one more year oh man another how many years we going to squeeze out of Justin Turner the guy retire let him move on to the JD Martinez for DH yeah JD Martinas for like four million yeah I mean that's probably the the bin they'd be shot if they land a big picture and follow the script you're talking about as far as having about that much to spend yeah that's the are they level you're G to go to and how good are they then how you know what do you where did you put them like they you wouldn't project them first in the division would you even protect them second I would project them in the same place that a bunch of other teams with front offices on the hot seat are living right now like outside of the playoffs yeah but like having aspirations of being there and having payrolls of of like needing to be there right like that's that that's what I keep thinking about when you say what other L of teams are in this situation like a two-year extension is nice but it's not that's not five a lot of times when someone's safe they get about five years and we have a few teams that are nearing the end of those fiveyear deals Front Offices Entering 2025 on the Hot Seat with the with their either president of baseball operations or the GM titles vary of course from organization to organization but I came up with five other teams that I think are probably thinking real hard about this next year as a critically important year to evaluate front offices and maybe make some changes so let's see if we agree with this list I have the Blue Jays the Mariners the Giants the Cubs and the Cardinals and the Cardinals are only kind of written in pencil on here because I I realized John moock his contract is up at the end of 2025 and he's already publicly expressed an intention to retire at or near the end of that contract so I mean I don't know if you're really on the hot scene I'm leaving soon the buzz at the seminar was that he's going to retire a year early and that's going to be the the transition this off season but then the question would be would would the would the replacement be someone like hyan Bloom who joined the organization this past offseason or to be someone in house who's been there longer I think that's the kind a relative hot seat question you'd ask given some of the issues that have happened there but is that about right as far as the other teams that you'd look at and say lofty goals haven't quite been hitting them the last couple of seasons and contracts on a lot of key people in those front offices running out either after 2025 in the case of Jed Hoyer or I think 2026 for Ross Atkins in Toronto I can't find Jerry too's contract situation somewhere yeah I think so I think if we're talking about just this winter yes I think there are a few if you go back like to Pittsburgh maybe is a year away from us having that conversation too right um I don't think maybe this winter but I think they need to they keep showing flashes um and not being able to sustain it over the season so I'll be really curious next winter uh how we View Pittsburgh and what they're doing but I think the rest of those for sure um and see look Seattle I mean you can make the case you know just getting rid of your manager is clearly not enough I mean Jerry depoto has a lot of flame for what is happening in Seattle so um I would put that at the top of the list like if we're ranking it as like a you know hot meter that's gonna have a lot of in my opinion a lot of a lot of smoke there versus I think yeah I think that's the most you know that's the toughest one in Seattle because I agree with you but then I did this last three years wins so that's last three years we're not I'm not doing a big long one you know yes the Dodgers always number one um Seattle has one more win in the last three years than the Guardians it has seven more wins in the last three years than the twins it has 11 more wins in the last three years than the Diamondbacks I think the difference for me and that maybe I this is awful because now I'm like thinking like an owner of a team which I don't really want to think like a team owner they spend more money than all three of those teams though too what have the twins accomplished as of late I mean it's the 10th best record in the last three years is like but they never wi they never go anywhere what have the Guardians done wins per dollar they've done really well they're having a great year this year don't get me wrong but it's not like you named the Dodgers and Yankees but I I did name some teams where the front offices aren't trouble no true but so I it's like it's one of those things where that I think he can make the case at least for one more year of we're getting better Jerry depoto I don't think he's even won that 54% of his games that he claimed as their goal over his time I've got that I've got that right there in front of me 244 and 211 they don't have the win percentage right there let me see that seems like pretty close like isn't that the wasn't he 54 was 54 the big the big percent [Music] 53.6 and he said was the big point of the you know I don't think somebody winning 50% of the time he was I mean he's you rounded up it's 54 that's what he said he wanted and people crushed him for that because it's like a ridiculous goal but I mean it also means that you know on some level ownership agrees with him and he can say well I'm I've got you your 54% nothing for it the the poto era goes back to the start of 2015 so it's a long window for him and I guess that's the other question is like even if you have the regular season success Quantified similar to the way you know laid it out there where it's like okay yeah 53 54% of your regular season games over a Long window that's only three years you were talking about but let's just say it's about that over the life of a 10-year window I do think after 10 years if if they don't if they aren't doing it sooner they're definitely looking at your playoff resume in a window that long like yeah you sustained regular season one playoff but one playoff appearance in 10 years isn't going to get it done for for any organization that's that's when just about any ownership group is going to say all right it's time for us to make a change because we need to have more success that at least leads us into October and then the next Frontier beyond that is winning in October in October yeah yeah like I guess I don't understand either you like they haven't even had regular season success it's not like they've won the AL West every year it's not like they're the Braves they keep went in the division and they can't go deep a lot of the times they finish second every year average start for him is yeah average finish is probably second somewhere so I don't even think of them as a regular season success Club it's not like they've raised eight alest banners over that stretch fair fair point now here's the other question If you happen to be in a division with a team that's historically at least very good and maybe better than that I don't know how you want to contextualize as pretty I mean that could I think it's a pretty darn good Astros team that they've had to deal with for the last decade like you do have to factor that in a little bit right like if the other organization just flat out better than you and you're stuck in that wild card race because you just have happened to exist if you were if you were in the same division as the 90s Braves that mean you were bad or were you just in the wrong place at the wrong time right yeah for 10 years though you'd think you'd break through one year I mean even the year they made the playoffs they didn't they on like the last day lose first place in the division but I think this is the same kind of thing you'd have to have when you're grading the front offices of the NL West looking at the dod comparing them to the Dodgers over the last decade almost like when you compare the Padres to the Dodgers you compare the Giants to the Dodgers and the Giants are in that that tricky spot where it's like they won three titles in five years now they're 10 years removed from that last title so it's it's pretty far back in the rearview mirror the expectations are still high in the fan base but everything's changed since then and you had one really Dodgers though you're saying they spend more than the Guardians yes but they're like a$1 140 $150 million like this is a very middle of the fact spending yeah they're not they're not absurd they're not they're not spending 200 million every year in finishing second either but I just think when when you have other teams around you that are spending a lot less and winning as much as you then you have to look at the postseason if you're not getting the postseason and winning there that's that's where I think the Mariners would be in trouble yeah because they don't have that success the Blue Jays we've talked a lot about in this show I mean I I think knowing that Ross Atkins contract runs through 2026 makes me think 20 2 is the let's run it back with this core try to tweak it try to get it right one more time what their trade deadline suggested they're doing too so that's kind of where we landed on that previously but what about the Cubs what do you make of the Cubs Jed hoyer's contract runs through 2025 and we've talked about the quality of their near MLB ready prospects we're seeing P Crow Armstrong already make an impact as a great defensive center fielder guy with speed showing a little more at the plate recently but do you feel like it's going well enough overall where you'd say Jed hoyer's not on the hot seat or do you think they need a postseason appearance either by some miracle rallying this year or in 2025 for Jed to continue heading up that front office Beyond next season I they may move they just got Craig Council so if they hire somebody else that person's not going to get to pick their manager for how many years your crack Council signed for a million like a million a lot it's a lifetime deal roughly a million uh in manager land and I just think that when you look at Cubs ownership they haven't been like a KN jerky we must win we're the Cubs team lately so I think Jed Hoyer will get more time they're probably the lowest on my list when I we're talking about urgency I disagree with you guys on Toronto I don't I think wait what do you think about Toronto you think they might make a move in this offseason even yes I do um I don't think that having a year left matters that much that happens all the time yeah that's I was gonna say that um two years for him but I think two is still actually in the realm it's when you get a that's what I was gonna say about Perry's deals you get a two-year deal we can still fire you next year yeah Farhan we haven't gotten the Giants but Farhan got a two I think a two-year deal last year and he could still get fired this off season I think yeah I I don't think that matters quite as much I think the Cubs are maybe in the safer I know Cubs fans are upset but they did kind of try this winter um such a weird yeah they're such a weird team when you look at it and they were in town I don't know about a month ago when I saw them and you kind of look around you're like where are the stars right they're just like a it's a very interesting team how do you $230 million and your stars are are Bellinger and Swanson it seems a little weird I guess they what they did was instead of buying Can the Cubs Make It Work Loading Up in the Second Tier of Free Agency While Their Young Core Arrives? the very best free agents they bought like the second and third best free agents they yeah it's still very expensive right I mean that's just the way it works so even if you can't get to the very top say a Suzuki good player it's like 17 million per 18 million per I think something in that range Ian hap retaining him over 20 million aav so yeah it just it adds up I I think it's it's okay like we we talked about this earlier looking at the differences between just like the Yankees versus the Diamondbacks what if there's another notch kind of closer above you're above what the Diamondbacks do in terms of spending and the quality of your players but you're not at the top heavy level that we are accustomed to right like that's kind of where I think the Cubs live that could work they um they might have I'm I'm guesstimating here they might they might have some money to spend actually um I'm seeing them uh at about $70 million short maybe $60 million short of luxury tax H and they spent right up to the luxury tax this year so if you had $60 million I think you could probably turn this team around I mean again we're doing the same thing top end starting pitching you know could make this Cubs team better um I think in terms of when you look around the diamond the the lineup looks like at least they have representative people at every position right yeah yeah there's not a there's not there aren't glaring weaknesses up and down the roster maybe it would make sense for them to get a top end closer I think I think that would help I think it's it's amazing how many games they've thrown away so I think it's easy it's easy to look at them and label them as a colossal disappointment given they made the Splashy Council move they added sha you know they did a bunch of things right and yet it didn't pay off in year one so I think they're going to keep being pretty aggressive this winter and I just wonder will they will they go to the top of of the free agent class and then it's like what as far as relievers go like what Elite reliever is available in this year's class I don't know if that option's even even out there yeah I I know all the the the topend starting pitching but we are we were trying to award that stop topend starting pitching to every team we've talked about yeah there's only there's only so many of them to go around uh let me see here relief pitching Kenley Janson is a free agent Ryan Presley vested Craig Kimbrell has a club option I've done that before ralis Chapman yeah guys are all old too yeah there's not Paul sewald yeah but there's not there's not a hater or an Edwin Diaz or or someone trade for Devin Williams on that trade what are you what are you doing to me here you know that Deon Williams and the and the Brewers are going to part ways before his contract is up I don't think they would trade him to the Cubs though clay Holmes okay but to your point like they're not necessarily gonna find that Elite closer on the free agent Market maybe they trade for them or maybe they maybe they show us they can develop one you mentioned Porter hodj as someone you're picking up in your Le I like him but you know you know your your Bullpen needs to have like four or five guys I mean yeah you need a lot of guys like that yeah exactly um but um yeah you know the other one that's uh I think I'm I'm local here so San Francisco I think um seems like the hot seat is on fire you know and that was absolutely a discussion at Sav s was like what is it that the Giants are missing because they spend money but they kind of do the Cubs thing where they spend money but don't get the top end guys right you know and they mix and match I mean everybody was in agreement Farhan is amazing at roster slots 20 through 40 you know and I think that is true like he's really good at waiver pickups he's he's he's made something out of nothing with like Blake so Sable and you know the Giants keep picking up like sort of Tyro Strada was like a waiver claim you know so it's like they they keep coming up with like waiver claims they're good at combing through what's available you know they're good at mixing and matching uh they've done some Innovative things in Player Development I think maybe Scout has been a problem but Bryce eldris looks good uh and is is coming back and coming up but you can't give them credit for Elliot Ramos because he was like a step away from being DFA like he was available in traits is what I hear you know like you could have just gotten Elliot Ramos anytime Tyler Fitzgerald was a guy that they were like okay fine you know we got no other Short Stop we tried every other short stop okay fine you're our shortstop so you know they they there's something missing there and um I think that the expectations in San Francisco are similar to the expectations in Chicago which is you know make the playoffs a bunch you know win the division sometimes like you know we're not scared of the Dodgers like we're we're supposed to be the Dodgers Rivals you know we're supposed to go toe-to-toe with them so um you know I think that the 107 win season is very far in the post in the in the in the rearview mirror and um I'm if if I wouldn't be actually surprised they made a change and if Farhan gets another year um I just wonder what kind of conversations they're having about if you've got a guy who's in the last year of his contract and he says well can I can I go sign you know Max freed for you know $200 million in the last year of my contract or you know what I mean like what's who's the big uh like can I go get Wan sto can I can I just like throw $500 million at Wan sto or where are we in our in our relationship can you already see the Giants taking the bronze in the offseason Juan stto sweep Stakes what is the bronze bronze medal like they're not oh oh the the we tried they're gonna be one of the runner-ups yeah they'll be one of the runner-ups we we offered them 450 million right and that's not to blame Farhan it's just like it seems like that's been that their foray to the very top of free agency have been a lot of runner up and that's going to happen because you can only sign with one team it's the only way it's GNA go I I do think one more year makes some sense but I look at it I'm like what is going to be different about that Giants team in 2025 you put Pete Alonzo on that team yeah that's nice they h a little more power but does it completely change their fate does it make them a wild card team instead of a fringe wild card team that's probably about as much as it could Elevate them they're going to have to either reup Blake Snell because I assume he's going to opt out or find those Innings somewhere else some money there to they've done well in that regard though right they had the the short deal short deal with Carlos rhon they've had a couple of hits there yeah so like to sign there so like you know they can easily get a bounce like bounceback guys love to sign there so I don't know who the bounceback guy is right now off the top of my head but uh oh we'll find one don't worry we got time we not today but we will find one we will sign that player to the Giants many many times over but yeah I think that's a it's a pretty good group of teams that are likely in a pivotal year for their front offices as 2025 approaches Shane Bieber to a a two-year $30 million contract or $40 million contract yeah something like that I think it needs to be someone who can pitch right away though next year so it might be more of a gamble where it's you know one guaranteed year and you get an opt out and if you get hurt then you can opt in and interested to see what kind of deal Kushi gets going forward yeah yeah maybe that's the level they can get to in San Francisco this offseason we are going to go on our way out the door a reminder you get a subscription to the athletic it's $2 a month at theathletic.com rat and barrels you can find Eno on Twitter at enois you can find Brit britori find me Derek V rer Brit's okay by the way something happened with her microphone like 10 minutes ago so she had to just drop off we're trying to figure it out we're not just ignoring her yeah not trying to like get takes off about the Giants and being muted microphone just stopped working and we don't know why but that's going to do it for this episode of rates and barrels we're back on Thursday at one o'clock Eastern on YouTube thanks for listening