Tropical Storm Francine gains strength, shifts more west, Sept. 9, 2024

'CONNOR WDSU NEWS. WDSU. FIRST WARNING WEATHER. WE'VE GOT A LOT GOING ON BEHIND THE SCENES. GETTING THE LATEST INFO AND IF YOU WANT THE GOOD NEWS PART OF THE FORECAST, IT'S THAT WE'VE GOT A SHIFT IN THE TRACK A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. THE BAD NEWS SITUATION IS THIS NOW LOOKS LIKE IT'S GOING TO BE AN EVEN STRONGER STORM. SO LET'S SEE WHERE WE START. AND THERE'S THE LATEST DATA. AND IT'S A CATEGORY TROPICAL STORM STATUS. RATHER THIS IS ANYTHING IN THE WAY OF A HURRICANE JUST YET. TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE, THE WAY IT STANDS RIGHT NOW, EARLIER IN THE DAY, WHEN IT WAS FIRST DEEMED A TROPICAL STORM, WE HAD MAX SUSTAINED WINDS AT 50MPH. BUT LOOK ALREADY AT THE STRENGTHENING. JUST IN A FEW HOURS, THIS WENT FROM 10 A.M. THIS MORNING, 50 MILE PER HOUR WINDS TO 65 MILE PER HOUR WINDS. TAKE A LOOK AT THE TRACK AND THE TRACK HISTORY HERE. KIND OF JUMPING AROUND BECAUSE WE DIDN'T HAVE A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION FOUND FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. HURRICANE HUNTERS. BUT LOOK AT THE WESTWARD JOGS. AND NOW WHERE THAT CENTER OF THE STORM SITS, THAT IS MUCH FARTHER WEST THAN SOME EARLIER FORECASTS HAD. IT. THAT'S GOOD NEWS FOR US. THAT'S WHY WE'RE SEEING THAT WESTERLY SHIFT RIGHT NOW. WE'RE ALSO SEEING SOME FACTORS THAT I'LL SHOW YOU IN JUST A SECOND, WITH DRIER AIR BEING KIND OF ENTRAINED IN. WE'RE STARTING TO SEE BLOSSOMING STORM ACTIVITY ACTUALLY GOING THROUGH A LITTLE BIT OF A WEAKENING PROCESS EARLIER IN EYEWALL DID TRY TO FORM OUT OF THIS, BUT I HAVEN'T SEEN ONE TO FIND JUST YET. SO LET'S SHOW THIS LATEST HURRICANE TRACK EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS WE GO LATE TOMORROW NIGHT GOING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY, CATEGORY TWO AND POSSIBLY MAKING LANDFALL AS WE HEAD TO THE SMALL COMMUNITY OF PECAN ISLAND. AS WE GO JUST WEST OF VERMILION BAY. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS AT 100MPH, BUT QUICKLY AS IT MOVES ONSHORE, IT WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY, BUT IT IS STILL GOING TO BE PRETTY INTENSE AND IT WILL BE THE WESTERN ZONES. HERE I'M LOOKING AT YOU TERREBONNE LAFOURCHE PARISHES. I'M LOOKING AT SAINT JAMES PARISH, ALSO AT SAINT JOHN THE BAPTIST. THOSE FARTHEST WEST AREAS. AND NOT TO FORGET TANGIPAHOA, YOU COULD BE GETTING SOME OF THE STRONGEST WINDS OUT OF IT. AND I'LL SHOW YOU THAT DATA. SO LET'S SEE WHAT WE GOT IN THE WAY OF WATER TEMPERATURES. VERY CONDUCIVE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT IN A LOT OF STRENGTHENING. WE DO HAVE A L LOT OF HUMIDITY, BUT LOOK WHAT SURROUNDS THE STORM. THAT IS MUCH, MUCH DRIER AIR AND SOME OF THAT MAY ALREADY BE COMING INTO PLAY. AND WE'RE ALREADY STARTING TO FIGHT SOME WIND SHEAR WITH THIS. AS WE GET INTO TUESDAY'S FORECAST, YOU CAN SEE THIS IS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, A SYSTEM THAT DROPS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THAT WILL BRING UP A JET STREAM THAT WILL KIND OF WORK TO TRY TO TEAR THAT STORM APART. IT WILL START TO BEND THE STORM OVER FOR THE WORST OF THE HURRICANES, YOU NEED THINGS TO BE VERTICAL FOR YOU THAT WOULD START TO TILT IT, AND THAT WOULD KEEP IT FROM GETTING TO THE WORST OF THE STRENGTH. IT COULD BE. WE LOOK FORWARD IN WHAT WE'VE GOT IN THE WAY OF THE CURRENT ALERTS. IN THE LATEST ALERTS THAT HAVE BEEN UPDATED. NOW, TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS, YOU CAN SEE THAT HAVE FOR GRAND ISLE. HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE WEST OF US RIGHT NOW. THERE'S STILL A HURRICANE WATCH, BUT THIS HAS EVERYTHING ALL TOGETHER AGAIN, THE WATCH MEANS WE'RE STILL ON STANDBY MODE AND STILL THE CITY IS UNDER THE WATCH RIGHT NOW. IT MEANS WE'RE KEEPING WATCH WHAT'S THERE. BUT YOU CAN EXPECT, AT LEAST FOR GRAND ISLE. POINTS TO HOUMA POINTS TO TO THIBODAUX IN AREAS WEST IN SAINT JOHN, THE BAPTIST AND SAINT JAMES PARISH TO AT LEAST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS YOU'RE UNDER THAT TROPICAL STORM WARNING THAT HAS JUST BEEN UPGRGRADED TO THE 4:00 HOUR STOM SURGE. THAT'S ALSO SOMETHING STORM SURGE WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED, POSSIBLY UP TO 5 TO 10FT AND 4 TO 7. AS WE GET TO GRAND ISLE. THE LATEST TRACKS ARE LOOKING PRETTY GOOD, BUT AGAIN, THERE'S STILL SOME DISCREPANCIES WHEN WE LOOK AT THE OFFICIAL HURRICANE TRACKS HERE, WE COMPARE THAT TO SOME OF OUR ENSEMBLE DATA. THERE'S STILL A LITTLE BIT OF A BIG SPREAD, SO THIS ISN'T ONE OF THOSE THAT WE ARE COMPLETELY CERTAIN JUST YET OF THE EXACT TRACK. YOU CAN STILL SEE THAT THERE IS A PRETTY BIG SPREAD OUT OF THESE COMPUTER FORECASTS STILL, THAT MOST LIKELY TRACK DOES HAVE IT. WELL. WEST OF NEW ORLEANS. WE TALK ABOUT TRACKS. WE'VE GOT TO TALK ABOUT STRENGTH AND THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE WINDS AT LEAST 8 A.M. THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE ARRIVAL TIME. AND STILL, THAT IS RIGHT ON WHAT WE'VE BEEN SHOWING. HOW MUCH RAIN ARE WE LOOKING AT? WIDESPREAD 4 TO 8, MAYBE SOME POCKETS OF A FOOT OF RAIN, IF NOT MORE. AND THEN WE GOT TO TALK ABOUT THE WINDS AND MAYBE EVEN THE SEVERE FACTOR OUT OF THAT STORM. WE LOOK AT THIS PARTICULAR FORECAST AND IT SHOWS RIGHT HERE AT 11:00 WEDNESDAY. STILL, THE EYEWALL THAT FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF US HERE. BUT WHAT I DON'T WANT TO SEE ARE THOSE INDIVIDUAL STORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT. THOSE COULD BE TORNADO MAKERS. THAT WAS A COMPUTER FORECAST WE HAVE. LET'S COMPARE IT TO THE GFS FORECAST. THAT'S THE ONE OUT OF THE US PLACEMENTS ARE STILL PRETTY FAR WEST. OUT OF THAT. PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TO IT. LET'S LOOK AT THE FORECAST OUT OF EUROPE. THAT SAME TRACK IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT. STILL TAKING IT WEST OF VERMILION BAY AND RIGHT ON THROUGH MAYBE PECAN ISLAND AGAIN. THAT'S THAT SMALL COMMUNITY INLAND WITH THE STRONG WINDS. IT COULD STILL BE RATHER GUSTY EVEN HERE IN NEW ORLEANS. WIND GUSTS COULD BE ON THE ORDER OF 40 TO 50MPH. EVEN STRONGER AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. SO THAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST PART OF THE TIMING FOR THE WINDS HERE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, WEDNESDAY EVENING AND STILL QUITE A BIT OF RAIN. THAT'S THERE. AND THERE IS GOING TO BE THAT LEVEL THREE RISK OF FLOODING. THE FINAL PART OF THIS IS GOING TO BE THAT RISK FOR SPIN UP TORNADOES. THAT COMES AHEAD OF IT. MORE INTO WEDNESDAY'S FORECAST. THAT'S WHERE WE'RE UNDER THAT LEVEL. TWO SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER COMING INTO WEDNESDAY. SO WEATHER ALERT DAYS. WE NEED TO PREPARE INTO TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY IS THE MAIN DAY AS THE SYSTEM AFFECTS US. THE WINDS GUSTS, THE STRONG WINDS, THE MAYBE EVEN THE TORNADO THREATS THAT WE HAVE MORE INFORMATION COMING BACK. STAY WITH US. WDSU NEWS AT FOUR. WE'LL HAVE MORE ON THIS