Tropical Storm Francine's latest track Sept. 9, 2024

WITH A TON GOING ON IN OUR FORECAST AS WE ARE TRACKING, STILL TROPICAL STORM FRANCINE. NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER THIS COULD BE A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME, BUT LOOKING AT THIS IMAGERY THAT'S DRIER AIR. THIS THING HAS BARELY DROPPED IN PRESSURE. AND IT'S REALLY LOST A LOT OF STRUCTURE TO IT. AND YOU CAN CLEARLY FIND THOSE DRY AIR BANDS COMING INTO THAT SYSTEM HAVE TAKEN A TOLL. WE TRY TO GET THIS EYEWALL GOING AND WE JUST HAVEN'T GOTTEN ANYTHING WELL-DEFINED. WE'RE STILL FINDING THAT THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHIELD, AND IT'S ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STORM. WE DO HAVE A LITTLE BIT IN THE NORTHWEST SIDE, BUT GOING THROUGH THAT TRACK ONCE AGAIN, POSSIBLY A HURRICANE LATE TONIGHT, EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, MAYBE TO A TWO AS WE GO OVERNIGHT TO EARLY TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT THEN POSSIBLY DOWNGRADED TO A ONE AS IT MAKES LANDFALL. BUT THAT IS AN ADJUSTMENT AS WELL. A LITTLE BIT LATER, WEDNESDAY EVENING AT 7:00. BUT LOOK THIS IS WELL WELL WEST OF US HERE. WE'RE LOOKING TOWARDS VERMILION BAY JUST WST WEST OF THERE. PECAN ISLAND RIGHT NOW IS UNDER THAT OFFICIAL TRACK AND LET'S DIG INTO THINGS HERE FOR YOU AND GET REAL SPECIFIC WITH SOME HIGH RES DATA. FIRST, THE ALERTS THAT ARE HERE ARE HURRICANE WATCH STILL FOR GRAND ISLE. THAT'S LOWER JEFFERSON, LAFOURCHE, TERREBONNE. PARISHES. HURRICANE WARNING IS UP BUT THAT IS WELL WEST OF US NOW. WE DO HAVE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS. YOU'RE ALREADY UNDER THAT SOUTHERN PARTS OF JEFFERSON, LAFOURCHE, TERREBONNE. WE'RE JUST UNDER THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH. SO REALLY THE TAKEAWAY HERE, THOSE THAT ARE FARTHER SOUTH WEST INTO THE ZONES, YOU'RE GOING TO GET POSSIBLY THE WORST OUT OF THIS. THE WAY THE DATA HAVE BEEN SHOWING. AND YOU'RE CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE STORM.. GRAND ISLE COCODRIE MONTAGUE CHAUVIN I'M LOOKING AT SCHRIEVER GRAY THIBODAUX HOUMA PONCHATOULA GARYVILLE. THOSE ARE JUST A FEW OF THOSE AREAS. THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS THAT THAT MIGHT HAVE THAT CHANCE TO GET A LITTLE BIT MORE OF AN IMPACT FROM IT. WE'VE BEEN LOOKING AT THE TRACK AND THE LATEST TRACK I'VE DRAWN IS AGAIN, JUST TO THE WEST OF THERE, VERMILION BAY AND RIGHT OVER PECAN ISLAND. THE ARRIVAL TIME STILL DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE A DAY WHERE IT'S JUST NOT GOING TO BE GREAT. MAYBE THE WINDS NOT AS STRONG, BUT WE WILL DEFINITELY BE HAVING RAIN. AND WITH THESE RAIN BANDS BEING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM, THIS IS WHERE WE GET THE RIGHT SPIN IN THE ATMOSPHERE. UNFORTUNATELY, THAT COULD MEAN TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITH THESE STORMS ROLLING OUR WAY. THIS IS OUR IN-HOUSE DATA SHOW THAT THE FORECAST TIME IS MUCH EARLIER THAN THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER'S LANDFALL TIME, AND YOU CAN SEE THOSE FEEDER BANDS. THOSE ARE THE ONES THAT REALLY GRAB MY ATTENTION. I THINK WE COULD BE IN A NUMBER OF TORNADO WARNINGS FOR THAT DAY. A LITTLE FARTHER OUT IN MORE COURSER RESOLUTION HERE ON TUESDAY, 7:00, WEDNESDAY AT 5:00. THAT'S MORE IN LINE WITH THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, BUT IT IS A LITTLE BIT FARTHER EAST. YOU SEE THAT TERREBONNE PARISH RIGHT HERE. YOU COULD BE IN THAT LINE OF THE GREATER CIRCULATION, BUT AGAIN, THESE ARE JUST DIFFERENT FORECASTS. AND WHAT I LIKE TO FIND ARE WHAT THE ENSEMBLE DATA THESE ARE DETERMINISTIC. THIS IS JUST ONE FORECAST THAT'S RUN FOUR TIMES A DAY. THE ONE THAT WE TAKE IT AND MAKE A FEW CHANGES AND DO IT OVER AND OVER AND OVER AGAIN. THAT WAS THE ENSEMBLES. THEIR BEST. BUT THE ONE OUT OF EUROPE STILL IS SHOWING A LITTLE BIT FARTHER WEST FROM VERMILION BAY TO. SO LET'S ADD THEM ALL UP SIDE BY SIDE. THIS IS OUR FORECAST IN THE HOUSE. HERE'S TERREBONNE PARISH. THERE'S VERMILION BAY, YOU SEE. IT'S RIGHT IN BETWEEN THE TWO. THERE'S VERMILION BAY, THERE'S TERREBONNE. THIS IS THE FORECAST OUT OF THE US, BUT THE FORECAST OUT OF EUROPE IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST. SO THAT'S KIND OF THE BREAKDOWN ON THE TRACK. SO THERE'S STILL A SPAN OF WHERE THAT STORM COULD GO. HI RES DATA. WE ARE CERTAIN THAT THE MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACT FOR EVERYBODY IS GOING TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL, A LEVEL THREE RISK OUT OF FOUR. WE'RE ALREADY UNDER A FLOOD WATCH THAT STARTS TOMORROW MORNING, GOES ALL THE WAY TO THURSDAY MORNING. HERE IS A LOOK AT SOME OF THE WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS HOUMA GUSTS TO 50 TO SEE 70 70 MILE PER HOUR. GUSTS TO BATON ROUGE BY WEDNESDAY, POSSIBLY 40 TO 50 MILE PER HOUR. GUSTS RIGHT THROUGH HERE. MAYBE NORTH SHORE 40 TO 50 MILE PER HOUR GUSTS AS WELL. BUT THAT IS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THAT'S JUST ONE FORECAST STORM SURGE IS SOMETHING SIGNIFICANT. SO GRAND ISLE YOU REALLY GOT TO LOOK OUT FOR THAT. AREAS OF PLAQUEMINES SAINT BERNARD, PARISHES TO THE FINAL PART OF THAT IS GOING TO BE THAT TORNADO RISK. IT'S A SMALL CHANCE TOMORROW. BUT AS WE GO TO WEDNESDAY, THAT WILL BE A 2% CHANCE. LET'S BREAK IT DOWN RIGHT NOW FOR THE METRO UNDER A TROPICAL STORM AND STORM SURGE. WATCH. SO AGAIN NO ALERTS FOR US. NO WARNINGS JUST YET. WINDS 20 TO 30. BUT THEY COULD PICK UP IF THAT STORM GOES FARTHER EAST TO US. STILL IT'S LIMITED FOR TORNADOES. THE MOST EXTENSIVE IMPACT TO US IS THE RAINFALL. GRAND ISLE LOWER PLAQUEMINES TROPICAL STORM AND SURGE WARNINGS. YOU'RE ALREADY UNDER THE WARNINGS. IT'S REALLY THE STORM SURGE THAT COULD BE THE WORST FOR YOU. THEN COMES THE RAINFALL SHROVE AND DULAC MONTAGUE, YOU ARE ALSO ONE OF THE AREAS UNDER THE TROPICAL STORM AND SURGE WARNING. THE HURRICANE WATCH STORM SURGE RIGHT NOW, A BIG IMPACT IN THE RAINFALL FOR YOU. THIBODAUX TO HOUMA. TROPICAL STORM WARNING A HURRICANE WATCH, NO STORM SURGE. IT'S THE RAINFALL. MOST EXTENSIVE. AND THE STRONGER WINDS, YOU'RE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO IT. SAME THING WITH RIVER PARISHES. THE FARTHEST WEST HERE. TROPICAL STORM WATCH. YOU'VE GOT THOSE WINDS THAT WILL BE GUSTING TO 45. BUT THERE'S THE POTENTIAL. YOU'RE GETTING CLOSER TO BE UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN THE WINDS COULD BE FOLLOWED BY THE EXTENSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK HERE IN THE NORTH SHORE. COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. WE ARE LOOKING AT THE TROPICAL STORM. THE STORM SURGE WATCH. SO REALLY HERE THE IMPACTS BECOME MUCH LESS THE FARTHER AWAY WE GET FROM THAT SYSTEM. SO WE'RE GETTING PREPARED RIGHT NOW IF YOU NEED TO MAKE A LAST FEW ERRANDS, DO IT AS EARLY AS YOU CAN TOMORROW MORNING, MAKE SURE YOU GOT THOSE MEDS REFILLED. WE'RE FILLING UP THE GENERATORS, MAKING SURE THE PROPER PLACEMENT PLAN FOR THE PETS TOO. THAT'S SOMETHING TO THINKHINK O. AND YOU KNOW WHAT? I THINK WE'RE ALL GETTING THROUGH THIS. I THINK THE LATEST DATA MAYBE THAT'S A LITTLE BIT MORE OF A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT, AND IT WILL MAKE US FEEL BETTER IN THE FORECAST. I THINK WE'RE JUST GOING TO ALL GET TOGETHER AND DO IT DAY BY DAY AND HOUR BY HOUR. WEDNESDAY IS THE DAY TO LOOK OUT FOR. IT'S THE STORM IS RIGHT UPON US BEFORE WE GET TO IT. STILL AN ALERT DAY TOMORROW TO DO IT. STILL AN ALERT DAY IS THE STORM IS PASSING AWAY ON THURSDAY, BUT THE WEEKEND