Everything you need to know about Potential Tropical Cyclone #6

APPROVE THE DEAL. SUCH A BIG WEEK WEATHER WISE. WDSU FIRST WARNING WEATHER WE ARE GOING TO BE TALKING ABOUT THE TROPICS, SPECIFICALLY THE GULF ALL WEEKEND LONG. STARTING OFF WITH THE HYATT REGENCY CAM. A LOT OF HAPPY FACES AND HAPPY PROSPECTS WITH FOLKS FROM THE WIND TODAY. BUT WE GOT TO GET RIGHT TO THE SERIOUS MATTER. TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS ALREADY UP OFF THE SOUTH COAST OF TEXAS NOW, EVEN FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MEXICO, MORE ALERTS ARERE EXPECTED TO FILL IN AS WE GET INTO MONDAY, AND A LOT MORE OF THEM TO COME HERE ON TUESDAY. SO HERE'S THE STORM A POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS MEANS WE ARE EXPECTING AT LEAST A TROPICAL STORM TO BE NAMED IF IT NAMES BEFORE ANOTHER STORM KICKS OFF IN THE ATLANTIC COULD BE FRANCINE. IF THAT OTHER ONE WINS FIRST, WOULD BE GORDON. ANY WHICH WAY THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A STRONG STORM AT LEAST A NAMED STORM, AND WILL MAKE LANDFALL, WHICH IS WHY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WANTS TO START ISSUING THESE OUTLOOKS. ALREADY. IT HAS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. IT'S JUST NOT ORGANIZED. I EXPECT IT TO BE NAMED BETWEEN MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A CATEGORY ONE HERE BY WEDNESDAY AT SEVEN. POSSIBLE LANDFALL RIGHT HERE. AS WE GET INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH WINDS ESTIMATED AT 80MPH. THAT'S UP FROM WINDS EARLIER TODAY THAT WERE ONLY ESTIMATED AT 75MPH. BUT THIS IS VERY TYPICAL. OUR HURRICANE FORECAST INTENSITY FOR THE STRENGTH IS USUALLY UNDERDONE AT THE BEGINNING. WE START TO SEE THEM RAMP UP THE CLOSER WE GET FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. WITH REALLY WARM WATER TEMPERATURES AND HIGH ATMOSPHERIC HUMIDITY HERE TOO. BUT WHAT'S NOT IN FAVOR FOR THIS STORM? MAYBE TO EXPLODING COULD BE THE WORST IT COULD BE. BY THE TIME WE GET INTO TUESDAY AND IT'S NEARING US, IT'S GOING TO RUN INTO SOME WIND SHEAR. THERE'S A SYSTEM IN THE HIGHER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE A FEW MILES INTO THE AIR. IT WILL RUN INTO THAT. AND IF WE GET A LITTLE BIT OF THAT SHEAR TO START TO TEAR, THE STORM APART, IT WILL KEEP IT FROM BEING THE WORST IT COULD BE. HURRICANE TRACKS. LET'S LOOK AT THE FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. THESE ONES ARE STILL PRETTY CLOSE IN UNISON, BUT THERE'S A PROBLEM WITH THESE. THIS FORECAST FROM THE UNITED STATES. IT'S A FORECAST WE TAKE AND THEN WE MAKE DIFFERENCES. WE RUN AT ABOUT 30 MORE TIMES. YOU CAN SEE THERE'S A LITTLE SHIFT FARTHER EAST. SO IF I OVERLAY ALL THOSE FORECAST I DRAW ON MY MEDIAN LINE HERE LOOKS TO BE BY MY FORECAST TRACK. POSSIBLE LANDFALL NEAR CAMERON. IT'S A LITTLE FARTHER EAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER RIGHT NOW, BUT THE REASON WE'RE SEEING THE INTERACTITION WITH TT FIRST SYSTEM EASTWARD PROGRESS MAY BE WHERE WE CONTINUE TO TRACK WITH THE WEAK FORECASTS OUT OF THE HERE IN THE UNITED STATES, SHOW THAT LANDFALL MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT I WAS SHOWING HERE. WE'RE NOT DONE WITH THE STORM UNTIL WE GET TO FRIDAY. FORECAST OUT OF EUROPE. THE ONE THING HERE NOT QUITE AS STRONG IN THE LANDFALL, PRETTY CLOSE TO BEGIN BETWEEN THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND THE FORECAST HERE OUT OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TAKE AWAYS HERE IS WE ARE LOOKING FOR THIS TO BECOME A STRONG STORM. WE WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THIS. RAINFALL IS A BIG PROBLEM WITH THIS. WE'VE HAD TWO HEAVY EVENTS OF RAINFALL THE LAST TWO WEEKS. MORE OF THAT TO FALL AS ONE BIG ISSUE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WINDS MAYBE TOO, AS SOON AS HOUSTON BY WEDNESDAY THEY COULD BE HERE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY TO GIVE YOU THE TIMING OF THAT OF THE ARRIVAL. BUT MORE ON THE LOCAL FEATURES OF WHAT WE'RE LOOKING AT. WINDS ALWAYS ON OUR MIND BY BY WEDNESDAY, WE COULD SEE THESE WINDS RAMPING UP 50 60 MILE PER HOUR GUSTS ACROSS THE REGION, 70 IN BATON ROUGE, YOU CAN SEE THE CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION WEST OF US HERE. ALSO, WE'RE LOOKING FOR WAVE HEIGHTS, STORM SURGE. IT'S EASILY 10 TO 15 FOOT WAVES THAT COULD BE COMING IN DURING THE DAY. THAT MEANS THE STORM SURGE COULD GET SOME INUNDATION GOING. GRAND ISLE YOU THE ONES ON THE COAST THAT NEED TO BE ONES THAT CLOSELY WATCH THIS LANDFALL IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MORE ALERTS TO CONTINUE TO GO UP TOMORROW AT LEAST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO PREPARE FOR. AND YOU SHOULD BE DOING THIS NOW. OH, AND FORTUNATELY WE HAVE A TORNADO THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. AND UNTIL WE FIND A CENTER OF CIRCULATION THAT INITIAL TRACK WON'T COMPLETELY COME TOGETHER. 6070 TOMORROW MORNING, WE'VE GOT A SLIM CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED STORM. WE BEGIN FAIRLY MILD, BUT AGAIN, THE HUMIDITY IS NOT TOO BAD. TUESDAY, WE'LL FIND THE STORM STARTING TO FILL IN WEATHER ALERT DAYS ALREADY FOR WEDNESDAY. FOR THURSDAY, WITH THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE COMING AND THEN IT'

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