Midnight Madness Stream: Old Trump is back, and new post debate polling.

[Music] no [Music] o o [Music] [Applause] [Music] [Applause] [Music] he o [Music] a [Music] all right there we go sorry with that I have no idea why it did that it's never done that before it's never muted me like that before welcome back I wanted to do a a really late night stream if if the viewership is weak very weak for this one I understand why because um I will not normally be doing a stream this late but I thought why not there's some things I want to analyze and kind of get off my chest and have in writing not in writing in transcript form in live stream form to have here so it can be said so we can look back on it really and um but also I just like to stream so I come on here and the more I stream the better it is for the channel so and I keep telling people I give advice to people about streaming or whatever and I see all this other advice that I'm reading as I try to grow my channel and a lot of it has to do with just doing it so sometimes if you feel like streaming even if it's 12:30 a.m. you have to do it anyways so thank you to all who watched uh my interview I don't really want to call it an interview kind of a a discussion about the debate with h David Chapman it's always fun to have him on I think he's a great guest he knows a lot he's very knowledgeable he's a political guy he's a political animal as they say and uh he has great analysis so I hope to continue to bring him on throughout uh the campaign and Beyond as well beyond the campaign not just not just right now but I want to talk tonight about a couple things couple observations I have made about the campaign and we'll do a regular check-in on the polling which is what we usually do but again I haven't done a stream in a while and I promise streams every night and this week I've kind of failed everybody we did have the David Chapman night which was good and which was fun and um I hope to have have him on more and have people like him on more but I need to be streaming every night so tonight is late I don't usually go this late start this late usually it'll be like nine o'clock 10 o'clock but I want to get to some topics um first of all I want to talk about the debate um a little late I know but I did talk about it when I when I spoke with David Chapman on I guess that was Tuesday or was it Wednesday yeah I think it was Wednesday that I spoke to David Chapman about the debate but I want to kind of wrap it up and and and give my opinion on this stream and that'll probably be the last time I I I give my opinion on what happened during that debate and what I thought about Trump's performance and whether or not he should do another one so again to repeat I actually think it was a pretty good night for Trump I thought he did pretty well all things considering he had the moderators against him and Kamala against him so once again it was three versus one but what I liked about it is that I saw the old Trump back and what I mean by the old Trump is the the Trump from 2016 the Brash the abrasive the controversial the strong Alpha energy attack attack attack and what's perfect evidence of how he really got back to his 2016 Aura is this cats and dogs comment now I have to admit when I first heard him say it I thought to myself that is really not the uh the note he wants to be hitting right here talk about migrant stuff talk about immigration but you really don't need to go into the cats and dogs thing just a just a background by the way this is my initial thought I'm about to tell you why I maybe it's not such a bad idea that he did that he commented on it in this way but just some some background the the issue of the Haitian migrants in Springfield and I believe it's a Aurora right Aurora is the Venezuelan migrants in in um and the other one is the Haitian migrants correct in Springfield this topic came up a couple days before the debate so when Trump mentioned it at the debate it was actually fairly a new topic and so most people when they heard him say that were probably wondering like what the heck is he talking about I don't even know and even people who are like chronically online like me I had just seen the story I had seen the story probably I want to say two two days before the debate it was over the weekend that I saw it and I think most people were the same I think most people who knew of the story were new to it they couldn't really make heads and tales of it they weren't sure if it was real or not and that's how I was I wasn't sure what to make of it so when Trump brought it up at the debate I thought that's probably not what he wanted to be doing because most people don't know what he's talking about and most people think that that's craziness it's a conspiracy theory and it didn't help that David mure the incredibly professional debate moderator from ABC piped in and said well we called the city manager and the city manager said there's nothing going on right okay of course he said that and by the way Mr Chapman made a great point when he was on my show on Wednesday night who exactly is the city manager or city planner I can't remember the the the name they used city manager I don't know what that is and I don't know why that is the person you would be Consulting about this problem or about this issue but nevertheless David mure said no we asked about it and they said that's yes nothing like that's going on so of course the the average person watching this debate thinks oh Trump just made that up but here's why and I want to kind of Encompass this with my original point which is that Trump is starting to get back to his old self to his old campaign style and I am not the first one to mention this I know that I'm not the first one to mention it and I know I'm not the first one to point out that he has not been campaigning in the way that he used to and it has been my theory and it has been the theory of many others prominent names which I will not mention maybe I will maybe I won't later on but I don't want to make it about them I want to give you my opinion because my opinion is not their opinion but it just so happens there's a lot of us who have noticed this Trump's 2016 campaign was three killed as Bannon used to say Steve Bannon who is now in prison as he used to say it is a stool it is a three-legged stool legged stool immigration trade and no Foreign Wars and that's what Trump campaigned on immigration getting rid of NAFTA and no more Foreign Wars that's what won him the election in 2016 that and the fact that he was an outsider of course there are other reasons but that was the essence of the campaign when people say he campaigned on the economy well he campaigned on jobs but he campaigned on bringing jobs back now fast forward to 2024 and we watch Trump campaign on drill baby drill no tax on social security no tax on tips and inflation now I'm not saying inflation isn't a big deal and he should talk about inflation of course but a lot of his campaign stops on this campaign have really been indistinguishable from any other Republican who would be running and that's a problem because the appeal of trump is that he's an independent force and he's not a traditional Republican he is an independent Force he had fresh ideas some of those IDE ideas he peeled away from De the Democrat ideas democrats for a long time have been campaigning on working class issues trade issues NAFTA of course we're going back before Bill Clinton came along point is Trump ran a populist campaign and many could have called it a nationalist campaign but this time around he has not run the same campaign up until now so you have to ask yourself what has happened why has he been running a different campaign in the last week or so well as David Chapman said when he was here on Wednesday astutely and we talked about this both times he's been a guest on the show that Cory lowski is now back on the campaign and you could make the case that lowski actually is calling the shots now that is my belief my belief is that Trump has fired Chris lasv and suie WS without actually firing them I don't think he wants to fire them because it makes it look like the campaigns in disarray and you know how the media is they run with that they say it's complete chaos Trump has fired his campaign managers with two weeks to or however many weeks to go two months to go so he doesn't want to do that but I think what he has done is he's given cor given Corey leowski much more access another reason why I think this is because there has been many Rumblings and I have not read the recent uh rumors but Laura lomer has been on the campaign plane on the Trump jet last week or so and let me tell you there is no way Laura lomer would be on that plane if Chris Los was running this campaign not a chance Cory lowski there's a pretty good chance now I don't know if she's going to be allowed to be in the inner orbit going forward that's kind of a story that was breaking just before I started the stream but the stream is about not what's happening 10 minutes ago the stream is about what has been happening over the past two weeks and if you look at the past two weeks what we see is that Trump has really started to change his campaign style and this started by the way before before the debate and I commented that during that debate Trump was more his 2016 self than he was the 2024 Trump and I think again that is because Corey leowski is now advising him Corey leowski is encouraging him to go back to the camp pain and go back to the personality he had in 2016 and there is evidence that this is the case and I want to give you a couple examples but I also first of all want to talk about one other thing before we go on Twitter and I play clips and the rest of it the polls have not really budged at all over the past well I don't know I mean they do a little bit we can check paully market right now and we will and you'll see that it is now showing K Harris 50% Trump 49 so Trump has dropped in the poly Market odds but what I want to observe is something a little more nuanced I know this is not probably something that people want to hear or people are interested in but I think it needs to be said because I was just discussing it with someone earlier today and it was kind of an epiphany um that I had and that is that the reason the polling isn't budging is because I think there are a lot of people who just are not paying attention right now and I think the Dynamics of campaigning have changed I think there was a time when for example when there was a presidential debate taking place let's say it was on a ABC let's say it was on CBS it doesn't really matter where it was happening but let's say there's a national nationally televised debate taking place while most people let's say 20 years ago let's let's use 2004 as the example I don't know why that's just that's a year was before social media and before you know alternative media I mean there were there were there was some alternative media back at that time but not but not nothing like what we're seeing now um go back to that year 2004 even if you were a nonpolitical person or an apolitical person you did not follow politics you do not know what's going going on or do not care what's going on you still get most of your entertainment from TV there were websites yes but most people if they wanted to be entertained in the evening they would watch TV and even if you did not want to watch the debate back then you had no choice you had to watch the debate because your show wouldn't be on you would tune in to go to King of Queens or whatever else you were watching and instead it would be the debate you would be forced to watch because that's the only place you could go today and I know this sounds like I'm explaining something that's obvious but I think I think it's important to to look at this as we try and figure out the Dynamics of the race and the reason why polling isn't budging maybe the way it was in years prior we tend just to chalk that up to say well it's a more polarized Society um people are more locked into their viewpoints yada yaad y all that stuff is true but I think what we're missing here is the Dynamics of media and it is the case now that you can get all of your entertainment from somewhere that's not TV you can get it from Netflix you can get it from Hulu you can get it from peacock you can stream you can be on your tablet you can be on your iPad you can be on your iPhone you can be on your laptop you can be on your TV and not even have to go to any of these Network channels so there are just a lot of people who refuse to pay attention and refuse to care and the ones who do pay attention and the ones who do care pretty locked in so there really isn't a lot of undecideds why is this important well because we're constantly told that what Trump needs to do is reach out to the undecideds and I agree he should try and hit those undecideds he should try and convince them but I'm beginning to wonder if maybe the right approach is not to go after the undecideds and spend all your time crafting a message for them but to craft the message for the people who like you already and make sure they vote for you because it's very possible Trump can win this election with 47% of the vote or 48% of the vote or even 46% of the vote depending on how popular comma is so in that light you have to think maybe it's true that Trump was Brash and abrasive and he didn't win anybody over during that debate but here's the important thing Trump is focusing on and dragging the public to his issues if this election is about immigration and inflation Trump is going to win maybe you could say if this election is about immigration inflation and Iran the three eyes Trump is going to win if it's about abortion and health care and democracy he's going to have a tougher time but the point is with Trump's outrageous well I use that phrase sparingly it wasn't outrageous but it was considered to be outrageous and considered to be strange comments about eating cats and eating dogs Haitian migrants it has shifted the attention away from abortion and Healthcare and even if they're not talking about um migration necessarily in the way Trump wants them to if the the discussion on X and on Tik Tok and on social media and in traditional media isn't about migration but it's about cats and whatever that still means it's not about abortion it's not about Healthcare it's not about the rest of the things there was no controversial thing Trump said about abortion there was no knockout punch that comma landed on abortion so as long as Trump can continue to keep the conversation on the right topic and topics I think that is his best chance at winning and that means he needs to find a way excuse me to focus on talking about those issues and it is my belief that if he Contin contines to talk about immigration and crime and you can mix trade in there and you can of course mix the other ones in there mix inflation in there and affordability but if he continues to talk about those main topics I think he has a better chance of winning this election than losing it's all about what the topics are not necessarily where he stands on all of them but what the topics are now go back to 2020 what were the topics in 2020 well there was one Topic in 2020 and that was covid and that was not a a discussion that Trump wanted to have because the majority of the country fairly or unfairly did not think that he was doing a very good job of handling the situation and when he came on uh Tuesday night or whenever it was mon Tuesday night and said that he did a great job with Co I think a lot of people saw that and thought well that's his ego talking and not reality talking and if there was any surprise in the debate is that they spent so much time talking about Co and this is right off the bat and that is not by accident ENT I mean kamla and the media and the Democrats and the Trump hater they would all love the discussion to be about covid again 2020 was about Co and that's why Trump lost but 2024 can be about immigration again because 2016 was about that it was about the wall and there were terrorist threats at the time and I remember Isis was running around and there were attacks at home Pulse Nightclub there was attacks all over Europe at that time so those arguments rang true and he tied immigration into all that so if he can make this election about immigration again then he can he can have a better chance so I think all in all the debate there was no knockout punch for Cala there may not have been a knockout punch for Trump either but to the extent that he dragged the conversation back to immigration I think he was pretty successful at that so let's take a look I want to I want to now share my screen we can take a look at the poly Market odds and just check in on that kind of thing that's that's my monologue for the night I know it's very late night stream apolog for that it won't be this late in the future but let me just see here let's check in on poly Market as I mentioned it has shifted so there you go there's the poly Market odds as they stand right now kamla 50 Trump 49 as you see Nevada has moved into a dead heat Pennsylvania 5149 that's that's narrowed significantly As Trump had a much bigger lead there and kamla has opened up a much bigger lead in Michigan and Wisconsin so Arizona Trump's sitting sitting pretty well there once again these are not actual polls these are poing Market odds these are betting odds just to let everyone know about that um if we go to Nate silver bulleon the silver bulletin to check in what's going on there oddly enough both the candidates have gone down there I don't really know what's going on there he has a uh comma 48 Trump 46 now what I notice about this number or what about these numbers here is that they look very similar to 2016 and once again that's good you know if he can keep Kamala to 48% and he can go 46 again that'll be a very clo that's cutting it very close I like Trump to be at 48 I've always said that 48 is his magic number 48% wins in the Electoral College 49% almost guarantees it for him and 50 means it's it's an electoral college Landslide for him so I don't like to see him at 46 it's doable 46 but he should be aiming for 48 49 that's where he should be aiming for in terms of popular vote now let's scroll down a second and just check out where we are in the swing States and the and the change from last week it's a bit of a mixture here but mostly a shift to Trump Minnesota has shifted a point to him New Mexico a point to him uh um nationally a point to him again uh Virginia shift the Dem plus two but I mean I don't really think Trump's going to win Virginia Maryland same same deal North Carolina uh shift one point to the Democrats North Carolina is polling very closely and it's a state that I that I think that Trump's going to be fine in but the more polling I see on it the more the more skeptical I get quite honestly so and here are here are the popular vote National polls again I read these in the last stream there there hasn't been any new ones here I don't oh no sorry there has been there has been there's been a few more uh ipsus has Camala Le my Five Points I don't think that's right I think the ones that are probably more likely here are Ledger 4744 Cala right M 4947 Trump and New York Times Sienna 4846 Trump worth noting that the New York Times poll was taken before the debate and I'm not saying that the debate had any major effect on this stuff but it is true that the debate may have given Cala a slight Edge now I do want to remind you and I saw this I don't have the tab here but Dan scavino Trump's uh assistant or whatever you want to call him I don't even I don't think he's a bodyman he's more just a kind of an adviser I guess you could say Dan scavino leaked internal polling from Trump showing him getting a two-point bounce after the debate so that's significant and that's internal polling so there might be some there might be something there um that he may have I know I'm not I would not be surprised if he if he gained a point and that um leads me to another something else I want to talk about U let me see if I can find it here because I did not pull it up right away I retweeted it though give me one second here Mark halin um I want to show you what Mark halin said this was this was yesterday see if I can share that with you here we go let's give me one second here because I can put in my other earpiece but Mark Halper basically here is talking about you know like look look don't be surprised if the people the public watching this saw this a lot differently than the pundits did because the pundits have made up their mind that like it was a horrible debate for Trump right like even Fox News was saying that um but Mark Hal is trying to say here like hold on a second let's not get carried away here because as we know a lot of times the public views this a lot differently than we do okay so let's let's see if we can listen to what Mark cin said here as I spent my day reporting on what's going on in the race particularly in the battlegr states and the undecided voters in the presidential race I talked to a lot of Democrats a lot of Republicans some at the presidential level some working on down ballot races some strategists people familiar with polling data with with focus groups and people with common sense about politics and I'm certain that what I say tonight is going to cause some people it's already started to say I'm an apologist for Trump I'm being spun by Mar Lago I'm making things up I'm ignoring the facts and I'm just here to tell you I'm only going to give you facts and I'm going to give you uh theories based on facts which may may not be true but if you're someone who thinks uh along the lines of George Conor way or St Stevens that were always just one kofy away from the end of Donald Trump that he's doomed because he attacked the pope or he shot someone on Fifth Avenue I'm here to tell you the most important thing is I didn't talk to a single person today including any Democratic strategists who believe that the debate is going to cause kamla Harris to take a meaningful lead in the polls on a sustained basis or perhaps at all so so to try to consider two theories that are just Dogma in the media and amongst Democrats one is that independ the swing voters the undecided voters in the seven states who will decide the election reacted to the debate and how the two candidates did in the same way that MSNBC host reacted to it that's one Theory the other theory is that Donald Trump today saying he was not do another debate with KLA Harris reflects the fact that he knows he lost and he's afraid of another one okay those theories may be right I'm not saying they're wrong but what I am saying is based on my conversations today I think they might be wrong and that would be wise to consider that they might be wrong particularly if you're someone who doesn't want Donald Trump to win and made the mistake in 2016 and nearly in 2020 of assuming that Donald Trump didn't have any idea what he was doing and that he was going down to defeat because he's only supported by his core magga base okay so that's what we're talking about I'm not saying the people who hold the theories that are dominant in the media now are wrong I'll say again what I'm saying is they might be wrong and what I'm saying is based on what I've heard today I think there's there's a way to build that up all right so let's talk about that all right so there you have it so what Mark is basically saying there is that like he there are some members of the media mainstream media liberal media whatever you want to say that are still burned and still have PTSD for lack of a better term about 2016 they remember the prognostications about 2016 they remember the failed predictions they remember eating crow on Election night and there are many members of the mainstream media Network media who remember that and are very very careful to be making any sort of statements about how the race is going about how Trump did in in the debates and you saw the New York Times headline it was something to the effect of Punit believe that kamla won the debate swing voters who watched aren't so sure so there's still a disconnect between the analysts the experts the pundits the prognosticators and the people because Trump comes across differently to voters in Michigan and Pennsylvania and in the Heartland I hate using that term but then he does in as Mark how says the MSNBC Studios so Mark cin is just giving you proper analysis thank you to everyone who's watching on YouTube right now if you haven't already please subscribe to my channel click the button in the bottom right hand corner please comment on the video if you have any questions put them in the live chat appreciate you all and everyone on X as well well please subscribe to the YouTube channel Florida Millennial on YouTube and follow me on Twitter or on X appreciate you all joining us tonight for a late night stream I decided to come on way too late but when you have something to say you have something to say and I wanted to show this clip of Mark Hal Mark Hal is a guy who I respect he is a guy who has always called it the way he sees it he has always been fair I used to watch him on um on the circus which was a great show some of the other hosts were a little bit biased for me and unfortunately when Mark left the program I stopped watching because I thought it was uh way too preachy and way too anti-trump and Mark was the one who brought the balance to it so something else I want to show show you is an example of what I was talking about earlier I know tonight's stream is like very methodical usually we're kind of like joking around more tonight I'm like okay here's my thesis and like here's a clip to back it up but I did see this and I don't know if this is from tonight's rally no tonight he's in Vegas right this is Arizona this must have been last night um but Trump made these remarks and he did it in typical Trump style but I I just want to show you this just to just to illustrate how he's starting to sound more and more like the 2016 Trump so let's listen to this little clip here and you tell me and illegal Haitians and he came in illegal Haitian migrants taking over a beautiful place it was so beautiful Springfield Ohio I was there I campaigned there a while ago Springfield it was so beautiful now it's just what a place can you imagine you have this small little Community all of a sudden you have 20,000 illegals in your community nobody knows where they come from I'm angry about Young American girls being raped and sodomized and murdered by Savage criminal aliens and illegal Haitians and he came in okay okay so this this is the kind of rhetoric we heard in 2016 now even if I were an impartial Observer let us imagine that I was hired by the Trump campaign and I had no horse in this race I was a Centrist or maybe even Democrat but they said look Florida Millennial we're going to pay you $100,000 to run this campaign and tell us what do you think the former president should run on what issues do you think he should talk about and I would say well let's go back to the drawing board let's figure out what issues won him the election in 2016 that was the last time he won and you can saywell Hillary was a horrible candidate he won because of this he won because of Russia he run you could you could come up with every excuse you want but if we go back to that campaign he won Against All Odds and he won with an incredible energy the likes of which really the world was shocked by it was possibly the single greatest political upset in the country's history and how did he do it what issues did he do it on and the thing is he did it on issues that aren't um how should we say it there are not issues that the The Establishment and the Elite Class the political class like to discuss they are issues that are only discussed out in [Music] the the dark Corners the Hinterlands of this nation the people in Michigan they turn on the TV and they hear about Ukraine they hear about Russia they hear about Israel they hear about they hear about Gaza they hear about Iran they hear about Afghanistan hear about every place except for where they are they hear about every issue except for their issues they hear about every plight except for their plight remember what Trump said in his 2017 inaugural address he said their victories have not been your victories their triumphs have not been your triumphs and that was a line that rang true with millions and millions of Americans they see the Washington political class talking about every issue except for the ones that affect them and when a politician comes along and does talk about the issues that affect them they see them called crazy they see them called Extreme they see them called racist they see them called xenophobic they see them called whatever else name you have in the book fascist they see them called authoritarian strongman they see them called anti-democracy but these are issues that people care about and does Trump uh talk about them in an invective that some people cringe at yes he does does he sometimes exaggerate yes he does but the point is not how he says it the point is not that he has a delivery that isn't really clean enough for the political consultant class the point is that he is talking about these issues in a way that matter and ring true to people you can be in Michigan and Pennsylvania and I keep mentioning these states because this is exactly where I imagine these people are they're everywhere in the country but those are the states that Trump won last time and those are the states that project him to Victory they see issues talked about that don't affect them and to the extent that the issues talked about do affect them they affected them negatively so they hear politicians talking about the need to send more money to Ukraine all the while money is siphoned from their neighborhoods and their communities they hear about Ukraine they hear about Russia they hear about Iran they hear about Gaza they hear about Afghanistan they haven't heard about Iraq in a while but we went through you know 15 20 years of that and they're sitting there wondering when exactly are we going to get to talking about America when exactly are we going to get to talking about Michigan and and the towns there when are we going to get to talking about Springfield when are we going to get to talking about Aurora when are we going to get to talking about these towns in Pennsylvania where manufacturing has left and Michigan in Ohio and Trump comes along and talks about those issues and maybe they manufacturing maybe they're migrant crime maybe it's immigration and the political commentariat and the establishment on both sides MSNBC and Fox news by the way if you watch Fox News which I was forced to do because I was at a political uh a watch party a debate watch party but nonetheless I heard the Fox News commentators talking about how it was a terrible debate for Trump these Fox commentators do not live in the towns where the migrant issue is taking place they do not live in the towns where the manufacturing jobs have been sucked out and sent everywhere else in the world they do not live in the neighborhoods where the crime rate is skyrocketing so it's no surprise that when they hear David Mir say no sir the crime rate is not not going up it's actually going down they say ah yes Trump I don't know what he's talking about I don't know what he's going off about the there is no crime in our neighborhood there is no crime in mlan Virginia there is no crime here on the Upper East Side well there might be there might be now point is Trump is talking about issues that affect the towns and cities and neighborhoods that media cameras of CBS and NBC and ABC and Fox News never go they never go there and to the extent that they do and I give him credit for it John King goes there and asks them what do you think about this and I honestly as I say I give him credit for it they have a segment where John King takes his camera and he goes to you know he'll go to some uh assisted living home or retirement home in the middle of Penn and a place no one's heard of and asked them what do you think and I was taken back when he went to an assisted living facility I believe it was and he had a table of maybe six or seven women ranging from maybe age 55 60 80 or 85 and he went around the table asked them what they thought about Camala Harris if she could win many of them said yes many of them said they liked her but then there was one who said no chance because she said there are a lot of people who just won't vote for a Woman for president now listen I'm not making a judgment calling it maybe you can join another stream where I'll talk about that but right now I just want to focus in on these are opinions that are held by people outside of the media sphere outside of New York and DC and la and Chicago these are views that are widely held among Americans who are never asked what they think the only time they're ever asked what they think is on Election Day which is why many people are shocked when they look at the results and they say wow how did Trump do so well the media told us he was crazy the experts told us he was crazy the political establishment who have been involved in politics for 40 50 years told us there was no chance they told us he lost the debate they told us that he performed badly they told us that he was Brash and he was abrasive and he was rude and he was overbearing and I'm not going to sit here and tell you that it was good for him to do that but what I am going to tell you is that it may not be the catastrophe that people think it is because Trump is himself very very in touch with the not the thinking of the country but the the mood of the country he has a unique ability as a man who spent most of his life in Manhattan and if he is in Manhattan he's in Palm Beach but he still has a unique ability unlike I have not seen from many other leaders to have his finger on the pulse of how Americans think and you say well he lost in 2020 well go back and look at how much he lost by it wasn't a lot and this was in a year when covid was raging and he was not handling it very well in the eyes of most people this is the year of BLM this is the year of riots this is the year of everything going against him and he nearly won again and he got 10 million more votes than he did in 2016 what does that tell you that tells you that his message resonates that tells you that he is not as unpopular a figure as many would have you believe now is it true that his personality probably is dragging him down a little bit yes yes but it is also true that there are many people out there who like that he's pugnacious because he's pugnacious about their issues and the issues that affect them migrant crime and migration in general is affecting their neighborhoods and if it's not affecting their neighborhoods it's affecting neighborhoods of people they know family members or they simply just see it happening and they don't like it because they know their neighborhood might be next and they're called racist and they're called xenophobic but at this point I don't really think people care they can be called whatever they want to be called they just don't like what's going on so it may very well be the case that people like that he is angry you know I heard Martha r the genius Marthur RIT after the debate say he was very angry tonight Trump came across as so angry well I got news for you Martha rits there are a lot of people in America who are really really angry at what's going on and no it's not only that they're going to the grocery store and everything costs a lot because those are the safe issues those are the issues that everyone can discuss because no one's going to accuse you of anything for saying that prices are too high no one's G to call you a racist or a xenophobe for saying that I pay too much for bacon and I pay too much for cereal by the way lines that I don't think are that effective for Trump and I do encourage him to talk about the inflation and the affordability issue but do not make it the cental themee of your campaign there are issues out there that warrant much more difficult discussions they warrant much more unpopular inconvenient discussions about immigration and migration and demographics that people aren't so comfortable having and so what they do is they don't have it at all but then when they have a leader like Trump who goes up there and says it for them they stand up and applaud and of course what CNN and all these networks love to do is they bring in all these focus groups and they put them in this little theater or this room and they line them up you know it would be a a way better focused group in my opinion a way better focus group would be to go to a bar in the middle of nowhere Pennsylvania go to a bar just outside Pittsburgh go to a bar just outside Philly go to a bar in Grand Rapids because surely you know there are a lot of people in there watching the debate and surely you know those are the exact people I can imagine it look I've been around long enough I know what it's going to be like you're going to walk into one of these places and it's going to be full of white Working Class People no no not every single person in there is going to be the same race I understand but there's going to be a lot of workingclass people in that bar watching the debate men women all ages not all ages but you know 21 and up they're all going to be in there watching maybe you should go and ask them what they think instead of you know just assuming that we're going to look at this group and say well that's yeah that's that's pretty representative of the country as a whole we have no idea how they picked those people we have no idea how many of them are actually Democrats we have no idea of what their viewpoints are they go on there and they just say yeah here's a bunch of Swing voters and no one's made up their mind let's all ask them who they think won the debate who thinks Trump won the debate one person raises their hand point is this is why the polling for Trump and as we saw that there was a internal poll that was leaked by the Trump campaign once again who knows I mean but this showed Trump getting a two-point bounce after the debate and my thinking is after this debate nothing changed and if anything changed maybe maybe KLA gained a point but I wouldn't be surprised if it went the other way which is what um the internal polling is saying for Trump which is released by Dan scavino again take that with the grain of salt just like you would the focus group that CNN puts out there but the point Remains the issues that Trump was talking about during this debate the issues that he SED like a crazy maniac about maybe he didn't sound like a crazy maniac to all the people who these issues are affecting and who these issues are causing wreaking havoc in their lives it's not just the economic issues and as I say they all want to talk about the economic issues because those are the safe issues those are the issues where no one's going to accuse you of anything no one is going to call you a racist no one is going to say you don't like Haitians you don't like migrants and so what's happening now is and I repeat the people who don't like what's going on when it comes to these issues are not going to say it themselves they're depending on someone else I.E Trump to go up there and say it for them and they don't mind if he says it in a angry tone because they themselves are really really angry they don't like what's going on there are people who are in I believe it was um I'm not sure if it was Springfield or Aurora I believe it was Aurora because it was the Venezuelan issue or I'm not don't quote me on that I know that in one of them there are people who are leaving there are people who are like we have to sell our home because this city this town has completely transformed since what of what it used to be so does it surprise me that we look at how the pundits viewed the debate as different than how the actual people who watched it viewed it and sometimes you have to catch yourself because even my even personally I go who he probably shouldn't have answered it like that he was really he was yelling he seemed crazy he seemed like a maniac there and the and I what keeps going through your mind is how is the media going to perceive it how is the media going to tell us that the average voter perceived it as opposed to how the average voter did perceive it let me tell you I watched this debate with about six or seven other people and there were two people in there in that group who called themselves independent but I'm pretty sure they were Kamala people they would they would end up voting for Cala whenever Trump said something funny they were laughing they didn't seem at all disturbed by anything Trump was saying these are Democrat voters they weren't they didn't have a recoiling reaction to anything he said there was nothing like that and yet you watch the post game on ABC oh it was angry it was unhinged you can watch Fox too by the way not a partisan thing you can watch Fox and they will say the exact same thing because they are so disconnected with what's really going on out there they are so disconnected with how people are actually thinking now by the way I have come on here and said there are a lot of people on the right who are disconnected they're saying Trump's going to win all the swing States it's like you know we have to we have to look at this realistically we have to be in touch with reality here alurn said the way MSNBC hosts saw this debate is not the same way that people in swing States saw this debate so anyway I think I've um I think I've hit the main point here but to go back to what I started with it is clear that Trump has other people in his ear other than lasv and Wilds because he has completely changed his his message not completely changed but he he has really switched his message he shifted it back to its original it's more of a populist Flavor now it's more of a immigration focused flavor and if I were to give unsolicited advice to Trump and the campaign it is to focus on immigration double down on immigration immigration immigration crime crime crime these are the issues that people viscerally react to and yes you can talk about afford ability and yes you can talk about inflation but going up there and running a boilerplate GOP campaign where you say drill baby drill and no low tax no tax on tips and lower taxes and lower regulation that is not a campaign that is going to win you back the White House you have to get back to your old message and he's starting and not just the old message but the old vernacular and the way I can tell he's getting back to the old vernacular is you look at look MSNBC and the media um you know mainstream leftwing media they're never going to like it so it's not a surprise they don't like it but when I go to Fox and I see that they don't like it and I see that Carl row doesn't like it and I see that Lindsey Graham doesn't like it that means the old Trump is back because those people did not like him in 2016 so much as they parade around now go through the Fox News host and I'll go through every single one of them Hannity Len these people all kisses R now they did not like him back in 2016 they were for Ted Cruz they were for all these guys they are part of the establishment Paul Ryan runs Fox News Rupert Murdoch runs Fox News the Murdoch Sons run Fox News they are establishment people there they would rather have Nikki Haley they would rather have the neocon they would rather have old school Republican mint Romney John McCain that's who they'd rather have and never forget that in 2016 they wanted to throw Trump off the ballot they wanted him gone because they said he could never win they said that he would drag down the entire down ballot ticket Paul Ryan said our best case scenario is that Trump loses and we eek out some of the down ballot races and maybe hold the House and Senate maybe just the Senate maybe just the house we'd be lucky to get one of them that's what Paul Ryan said in 2016 he wanted Trump off the ballot he believed he would never win Paul Ryan is as far away from the reality of what's going on in this country he is so far out of touch and it's Paul Ryan who's running Fox News and it's Paul Ryan types who are running Fox News and when Carl Rove says that Trump had a bad debate guess what Carl Rove has never been for Trump when you see all the names lining up behind Cala Harris look at the list of names I mean someone someone tweeted it out let me see if I can find it because I just retweeted it um I literally just retweeted it I think it was nval rant yes Naval says this is a perfect perfect explanation here when Bush Cheney Clinton and Biden all line up on one side that's called The Establishment so when I hear here kamla bragging about oh I got the endorsement of Dick Cheney I got the endorsement of the bushes I got now George W bush didn't endorse anybody but we we know that he's not voting for Trump let's put it that way so when she brags about getting the endorsement of these establishment figures that is not that is not coming across the way she thinks it is I mean of course in certain areas yes of course it's coming across well certain establishment quarters and you know but the to the average voter those are not names that you should be proud of having the endorsement of and I'm not here to tell you George W bush is a bad guy or whatever I'm just I'm just telling you these are not popular names these are people who the public relates with horrible Economic Times And War and that's why I think Trump should be out there running on anti-war he should be running against the forever Wars he doesn't do that enough I mean he's more likely to go out there and say well we should in like side with people who want to invade Iran or whatever but he does go out there and says oh World War II you know we're we're going to have World War I if we don't smarten up so he's he's he's closer to the message he's not quite there but point is the point is he's he's getting there he's he's better than he used to be and my hypothesis about this is It's because Cory leowski is back on the campaign that's that's my guess of why he I mean you guys can tell me what you think but that's my best guess as to why he is back on his original message and as I said at the outset it would not surprise me if in fact even though was not announced and even though they may still be on the payroll and they may still be involved in the campaign it would not surprise me at all if Chris levita and Susie WS are not running this campaign anymore it would not surprise me if Corey leowski is running this campaign just like he was in 2016 in the primaries and leowski understands the Bas leowski understands not just the Bas he understands the type of voter who votes for Trump he understands the issues that animate Trump voters he understands the issues they face the problems they face the anxieties they have he understands all of that and he knows how to bring out the best in Trump which by the way the media will call the worst in him but really is get the best in him it's Trump who ran in 2016 on a certain populist message but also ran in an unabashed politically incorrect way he showed energy he showed Alpha might he was overpowering yes he was Brash yes he was abrasive or whatever you want to call it but he was also a winner and he also won the White House and that is in my opinion the blueprint that is the blueprint to bring him back again especially since and this went through my mind too and I don't know if other people felt the same way but especially since when I was watching this debate I was reminded more of Trump versus Hillary than I was Trump versus Biden it gave me a much more similar feel to those debates where she was kind of whiny and Naggy and I know people are going to say oh that you're just saying that because it's a woman but that's truly how I viewed her during that debate and I think how a lot of Voters viewed her during that debate so if anything this race is shaping up to be a lot more like the the one 8 years ago than the one four years ago and I think she's going to have the same problem Hillary had in Pennsylvania and we've already heard and again we can go back to Mark Halper who talked about this internal polling the comma campaign has that shows the reason they're hurting in Pennsylvania is because of workingclass white men Hillary had the same problem and we hear liberals talking all the time about how well a woman can't can't win because America is sexist well and the the conservative response to that and the Trump supporting response to that is no America is not sexist well why are they afraid just to admit that maybe there are some people who don't want to vote for a woman candidate and once again I'm not making a judgment on that I'm not saying that's right I'm just saying there are a lot of people out there who will not vote for a woman candidate am I wrong or like I do think that was part of what happened in 2016 I do think there were a lot of men in Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin who just would not vote for her for that reason now does that mean they wouldn't vote for another woman candidate maybe but she was definitely not the one they were going to vote for because she was um whiny she was um annoying she was corrupt but she was also how do I put it it felt like Trump was running against a school principal or something or like it just conjured up this this image of someone nagging and I I again they will say that that's sexist but that's just the way it came across and I'm telling you I think watching Kamala there were there were points during that debate where she came across in a similar fashion and I may be wrong I may be off Bas who knows I don't know but anyway so those who are watching on YouTube thank you very much I know it's late please subscribe please hit the button in the bottom right corner I go live this week I haven't but I'm trying to go live every night around nine o'clock or so 9:30 talk about what happened during during the day and polling and obviously there's been lot to talk about recently because of the debate but and uh tonight I just wanted to make some observations about how Trump um has changed even in the last two weeks and I think they've been positive changes if you are if you are someone who wants Trump to win this election they have definitely been positive changes and my subtext or my subtitle to that is do not expect any of the establishment media left or right to tell you that he has made positive changes in the last two weeks because whenever he does make a positive change they will report it as negative and whenever he makes a negative change that runs him away further away from the winning strategy they will say it's a great brilliant strategy notice how they have not been they had not been criticizing him much now a lot of that has to probably do with what happened in July but I think a lot of it also had to do with the fact that Trump just sort of started pulling away from his controversial positions which aren't actually that controversial by the way they're only controversial in media spheres and that's why there wasn't much push back you really didn't hear much and look go back to that CNN debate there was no push back against Trump there was no factchecking from Jake Tapper or danab bash and I think a lot of that had to do with them wanting Biden to drop out and they wanted to force him out and they thought the best way to do that was to make sure that Trump had as good at night as he could have but anyway okay I've I've talked too much I've I've I've gone on and ranted long enough I don't want to keep saying the same thing over and over again but I want to um I want to just browse Twitter and see if there's anything worth worth looking at before I close out the stream thank you to all who joined on X thank you to all who have joined on YouTube if you have any questions please post them in the live chat um if you have not watched already uh my discussion with David Chapman about the debate I have posted that is an hour long I think it was a good discussion I like having him on so see if there's any anything interesting here you can go back to the polling we can check out more polling if you want before we go again this is where Nate silver has things right now I don't know where Nate silver has the chances at again poly Market has Harris at 50 Trump 49 let me just see one second whoops um let me just see here once again if you guys have any questions any comments please leave them in the live chat poly Market 5049 Harris which I just mentioned Trump down by four in Minnesota not bad Trump up by one in Michigan Insider Advantage poll I believe Insider Advantage was pretty good in uh in 16 it's hard to remember the track record for all these Bulls you're GNA we're going to see a lot of polling these next couple weeks I mean they've just it seems like every day they release one now it used to be you had to wait many days for polling to come out but now they're just they're getting really good at it 4742 nationally that's not a good one for Trump that's Reuters post debate 50 Harris 47 Trump again not a bad poll you have to know that and learn that Trump doesn't need to win the popular vote to win the election I told you that his Target is 48 49% he can do it at 46 or 47 but it's much more likely that he gets 48% 49% that he he'll win among debate Watchers 6337 for Harris what I've not seen is Nate Silver's oh here we go here we go this oh this was on September 10th though so that was before the this was before the election 6138 for Trump I don't know if that has changed at all I want to see because he doesn't post that on his regular uh he doesn't post that on the silver bullet unless you sign out which I probably should uh Trump remains a favorite in Nate Silver's election forecast despite what he says are good Harris polls post debate 60 60% chance for Trump 39% Trump uh chance for Harris so there you go it's basically almost reverted back to what it used to be like look this is this is what it used to be June 26th 65 Trump 33 Biden Trump's at 60 now not 65 but still it's a pretty big lead this was his forecast in 2016 by the way 71% Hillary 28% Trump remember Trump see these dark blue States he's got here Trump swept them all so as I say he's he's notoriously under pulled anyways it's getting closer to 2: a.m. here on the East Coast so I think I'm going to call tonight uh to those who have joined once again thank you very much appreciate you being here at such a late hour and if you haven't already please subscribe to the Channel please like this video this live stream comment let me know what you think and I attempt to stream every night around 9:30 9 o'clock 9:30 or so especially on the days when there's a lot of uh when there's a lot of news and we're set to have a lot of days with news if you're watching on X please um follow me on X and find my YouTube channel Florida Millennial and follow me there and I will be seeing all of you very soon if you if you comment after I posted I will try and respond to every comment and I'm also going to try and post an updated Electoral College map problem is I don't think a lot has really changed so it's hard to post like a new map when you don't when nothing has really changed um but I'll check out the polling and there might be some some changes to be made or I might just make another one just to just to reiterate um I was also going to make one like about a specific State like just do one about Pennsylvania or what whatever we'll see we'll see whatever whatever I feel like doing really or whatever I think is in demand or whatever I think people want to talk about um you go in the comments and there's like there's certain um spots that people want to talk about more so certain States they want to talk about more they have people tend to have opinions about certain States Georgia Pennsylvania anyways I'm ranting so if you joined us late please go back and you know watch I started from the beginning a lot of interesting thoughts but uh this was kind of an impromptu stream so I'm going to keep I'm going to try and keep streaming as I said every night around 9 9:30 sometimes 10 o'clock depending on uh what I'm doing but thank you to all who are watching YouTube once again please subscribe to my Channel please subscri please follow me on X Millennial my YouTube is Florida Millennial and um I hope to see you all very soon thank you very much everybody have a great weekend and I will see you on Monday