Nate Silver Predicts Possible Trump Electoral College Victory!

hello everyone welcome back to the C's political Circle and today I want to talk about how Nate silver their model update just came out and it's showing that Trump is in the lead El by the Electoral College which is very very surprising because Nate silver is a very very very political uh bulletin that posts this stuff usually they're very very political and I mean they're very very uh Democratic when they when they pick uh their numbers and even in even when they did uh I think Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton they were very very uh partisan towards the Democrats so if you see a favorability with Trump with Nate silver you that is a big Advantage for Trump a massive Advantage now obviously the popular vote probability is different but with the Electoral College in the favor of trump at for that is very very interesting because for Trump to be above a Nate Nate silver model is just really is just a very very great thing to see because usually uh he he usually posts these and they're always partisan to Democrats almost always they're always favoring either Joe Biden Hillary Clinton Harris it's just always and if you look at the average they have on the actual site it shows that Harris is leading but in their most recent model it is showing that they think Trump's actually going going to be winning now obviously their actual average in general is still showing a Harris lead but their most recent update on who who is favor to win the presidency is literally Donald Trump which is which is great this shows that Trump can possibly easily win the election because of this uh because of how how uh dumb Nate Silver's models are it really shows that if Trump is in the lead whatsoever Trump can easily win this election and to show some other stuff as well some other polls that just came came out as well that that are really interesting even though Trump's not in the lead in them I'll show you them and I'll tell you why this is a good thing so to show you right here um this is Quinnipiac obviously you know quinc quinc is probably the crappiest poller around when it comes to polling Republicans it quinc always pulls Dems it is like one of the most Dem pollster besides probably Bloomberg I think Bloomberg's very very um very very liberal as well but quinc is is very much up there they are a horrible pollster and for some odd reason they give them a b which is probably the dumbest thing ever because quinc is probably the crappiest poster you can have when it comes to general election polling especially because they are so partisan they're basically like the RAS musen uh they're basically what the left calls Ras M but in my opinion I think quinc is just way worse with their margins and even if you look right here um this this person posted this right here um they were showing how it's basically a trump plus six because if you look at this right here if you show see quinc all the way down here they're they favor Democrats 100% of the time and then you look at troger you look well actually the most average one here that's probably the mo that's probably not as bad is probably is probably survey USA and then you got some of the Republican posters like like troger is not too but 86% is pretty bad um but then there's Insider Advantage Insider Advantage is probably the best one out of these it's it favors Republicans but it also doesn't favor Democrats too much but like Emerson College is is a decent one but they're not great either but but uh the quinc though kipc is awful literally awful when it comes to the errors 100% error favor to the Democrats so it just shows that Quinnipiac is just a horrible pollster and them showing a Harris plus one is a massive Advantage for trump it is a massive Advantage you would see quinc do so much more in in general even with Joe Biden like if I look right here I'm not sure if they did any other polls I just want to see qu so they had a trump plus two but remember this was before the Dropout so this doesn't matter this Trump plus two doesn't matter so this is the first poll they basically pulled since Harris became the nominee or when Harris became like you know the right after Joe Biden dropped out so quinc basically just put out a A plus one which is crazy because uh obviously uh Quinnipiac is a very liberal pollster so them showing a a Harris plus one is is very awful numbers for Harris in general and obviously uh there's some other polls I want to show you as well so there's Emerson Emerson's a really interesting one I would say they're kind of accurate but also liberal leaning so so they're showing a uh a high in Pennsylvania which obviously the before poll was a trump plus one but remember this was after the convention the DNC convention but obviously there was also Kennedy as well but remember the DNC convention just happened you would think you'd see like a plus three maybe a PL plus two plus4 but no you see a tie you get a you get a onepoint bump from the DNC which is very very bad for Harris a very very bad thing for Harris but it does help out Trump tremendously because Trump can easily recover from this and even though it's Emerson Emerson is a I would say they're a decent pollster but they they are left leaning so I would say accurately maybe this poll is a trump plus one maybe a trump plus two but uh just to say uh Emerson is not liberal but I would say they're left leaning but I would say this this poll is not accurate but I would say that um this is a very bad Poll for Harris this is an awful poll especially after the DNC convention and then another poll I wanted to show so these are the swing state poles this this was a uh this is a right-wing pollster by the way I just want to say that uh I think it's a little bit inaccurate but I also uh because remember it is a c pollster but I do think some of these uh could be accurate in some instances like Arizona that could be possible Trump plus one Trump plus two is probably possibly accurate for Arizona Georgia I think is probably a trump plus one or Trump plus two North Carolina you got a tie here I think that's very inaccurate I think North Carolina is probably gonna be a trump plus two or Trump plus three then you got Pennsylvania Harris plus one I would say that's inaccurate but obviously the DNC convention did just happen so it could just be a bump from the DNC so I think that could I wouldn't say it's accurate but it could just be a bump from the DNC then the Wisconsin plus three I'd say the poll is accurate but I wouldn't say the result is accurate because Wisconsin if I show you right here if I go to Wisconsin right here so here's Wisconsin obviously it's a Harris uh 1.9 lead right now but if I show you right here if I show you so if if you go to um if you go to Joe Biden so I just want to show you that I've talked about this in my video before Biden won uh Wisconsin but he was leading by 6.7 in averages and Biden won by7 so you got Harris 1.9 and and and also if I show Clinton just to show you Clinton as well uh Clinton was up by 6.5 Trump won by 7 so usually Wisconsin severely under pulls Republicans in polling so if you got a Harris 1.9 then and and even the most recent Emerson is a trump plus one so if you have a Harris 1.9 Trump can overperform in Wisconsin by about five maybe six points maybe even four uh but Trump can easily win Wisconsin in this scenario because he severely overperforms in Wisconsin and then you got then you got a Harris plus three in this Wisconsin pole and I mean I could say that's accurate based on polling but I would say that in the end Trump would overperform that margin because he always overperforms in Wisconsin which I don't know why polling is so bad in Wisconsin but for some reason he always overperforms in Wisconsin it's just a thing that always happens and I know a lot of people see these polls and they see like oh uh right here like quinc uh people don't think about quinc and they're like oh no Harris is leading by one this could be really bad for Trump but that's also an electoral college Victory and then you see the Pennsylvania tide and its Emerson people probably think oh Trump could lose Pennsylvania no you just you really have to look at the margins and just understand that a lot of states are very different when it comes to when it comes to polling and to show right here like if I go if you go to uh like if I specifically go to Pennsylvania you'll see how interesting Pennsylvania is so it's a Harris point8 as of right now mainly because of the Bloomberg I I absolutely absolutely despise Bloomberg polling because Bloomberg is a very Lial Li Al poster and honestly possibly maybe even more liberal than quinc when they put out polls like look at quinc plus three and then also New York Times Sienna they're they're pretty pretty liberal as well so I would say those three posters are the ones you really got to look out for and put the averages down a bit um but AIS point8 because of Bloomberg it should be either a tie or or a trump point something but just because of Bloomberg it really ruins it here but just to show you if I show you Biden uh so so it it had the same exact result as the average but then when you look at Clinton here you got Clinton and Trump overperformed in Pennsylvania by not two yeah actually a little bit over two percentage points so I would say that Pennsylvania is a really interesting State here you got to remember that in 2020 uh Co was a big thing so if if it's in a normal election year like this year you should you should probably look at the 16 polling a little bit more Trump over overperforms in Pennsylvania on average if it's if obviously not Co isn't there or anything abortion or anything like that's not on the ballot so I think that Trump will over overperform this polling as of right here and technically Trump should be in the lead in this polling but because of Bloomberg obviously that's the main reason why he's not leading in this poll but a lot of people gloom and doom and don't understand that a lot of these states are very different and different in in many different ways and Trump can win in a lot of different ways like if you look at Arizona you know Trump's in the lead in in Arizona and even the most liberal even when you look at Emerson right here Trump's in the lead in in in in Emerson in Arizona he got Nevada right here Trump's in the lead obviously most recent polling is showing Harris but I do think Trump is still in the lead in Nevada and then you got Wisconsin I I already talked about this you got Harris leading but Wisconsin severely underperforms with republ I mean overperforms with with Trump specifically and then you got Michigan now Michigan's a weird one um I think Michigan can go to Trump but Michigan's a little bit more weird because they they do underp Trump but at the same time like if I show you right here they underpull Trump by a sizable margin and technically TR Trump can win Michigan but at the same time Michigan is a very liberal leaning State and it's it's it's it's not something you can really predict but they do underperform Republicans so if Trump keeps an average of maybe two for Harris maybe a 1.5 or Harris Trump can win uh Michigan and then you got then I already showed Pennsylvania then there's North Carolina ever for some weird reason people think Harris can win uh North Carolina so Trump's leading in the average and obviously even Emerson is showing a trump plus one but I do think it's way higher than that it's just North Carolina is just showing that because I mean a lot of these liberal leaning posters are really putting in like Harris like here's Bloomberg you got Seria USA you got Sienna so you got a little little a little bit of liberal in there then you got Georgia here it's a theoretical tie but look the Emerson put a Harris plus one Fox News is actually kind of reliable so I actually wouldn't hate on that one um Bloomberg is a plus two and then you got for some odd reason you got Sienna saying a trump plus four some of these are very weird with polling so you just can't really look at certain polls and just say that uh that Trump's going to lose them because he he always overperforms polling in a lot of States so there is just no scenario I really don't see him winning losing this election now obviously in the average as of right now Trump's not winning but only because of Pennsylvania and their Bloomberg pole but I did want to bring all that stuff up with you guys I wanted to bring up the Nate silver model I wanted to bring up the polling just to talk to you guys about obviously there hasn't been really much of a Kennedy shift yet maybe one more week there might be a Ken Kennedy shift it's it's mainly because of the DNC bump I think the DNC bump is really pushing those Kennedy numbers down a little bit when it comes to Trump so I would say maybe wait one more week just to see how that works out and if it doesn't work out then I think that's the Kennedy bump it's just right there or maybe wait two weeks I I'd probably say one week just wait one more week so the DNC bump is gone and then you'll get to see more decent polling but yeah I just really want to talk about this Nate silver model and how Trump's in the lead in it and also just talk about some polling that just came out anyway guys that's the end of this video um I'm not sure when my next video will be out I I would assume possibly maybe Tuesday or Wednesday or so it really depends on what comes out hopefully more Kennedy models do come out like when it comes to like Trump getting a boost by Kennedy I know the DNC just happened in the Kennedy and the Kennedy endorsement happened right after so obviously it really needs to average out a little bit but I did want to talk to you guys about this and just show you that Trump can win these states Trump can do really well it just goes down to the margin of error and how certain States poll Trump in general Trump's probably going to win Wisconsin and Trump's probably going to win Pennsylvania but then there's certain States you got to really look out for that Trump could lose and could win but anyway I don't want to make this video too long I hope you guys enjoyed thank you guys so much for watching and I'll see you guys in the next one bye guys