The 2024 Senate BATTLEGROUND MAP LATEST POLLS From ALL STATES (August 25th)

with only 72 days until the general election comes November 5th we are faced with a senate that could go either way whether that be for a republican majority under a trump Vance ticket or maybe a democratic majority with Harris and walls it could go either way so let's break down all the races all the latest polls and just make sure that we get all the information we can I've narrowed down exactly what the eight competitive races are there are seven states that are swingy in the presidential election and there's eight in this one so there's a little bit more studying you have to do but we do also have the paully market that shows that Republicans have a 71% odds this is the better odds of retaining control of the Senate again this is super important because you only need 50 seats if you have the presidency so if Vance breaks the ties that's a different calculus then if Harris wins and the Senate goes for walls breaking the ties much like Kamala has been for this past administration so again Democrats are at a meily sub30 percentage odds of actually winning the themselves to get 51 seats that is though uh but it's more complicated when we include Ties That being said we do have percentages exactly for what the bet the betting the betting odds are right now uh in all the swing States but we also have uh aggregate polls too as you can see here with Montana this is probably one of the first States you want to talk about so as you can see here Montana is a state that Trump obviously is winning right now by like 20 30 points and uh John tester who historically has been a pretty good Blue Dog Democrat in even in elections where a person like Trump has won by its time he's been able to defeat lackluster Republicans across the board um evidence by 2018 this election is very different though aside from a potential Blue Wave uh in the last decade we've really not seen a race that has been close the polling has been seeing the opposite but obviously I know this and you can see right now that Tim sheii the Republican is leading by upwards of 5 percentage points this is huge obviously because the polls were seeing like I said the contary but it became very clear that you know John tester will not get over 30% of trump voters to cross the aisle and actually vote for him down ballot it's just the way it works and so he's pretty much doneo again the gambling says so too um there's two to three odds that the Republican will win this race so that's pretty conclusive Virginia is a state that I kind of left as a swing one because when Biden was on the ticket it seemed like people down ballot were panicking including Democrats including people like Tim Kane but now that is on the ballot it honestly somewhat polarizes the election in a way to where any state that has gone 10 plus points Democrat in the past will stay the same and so with that being said um even though Kamala might lose to Trump in uh in November she could actually help raise the floor of Democrats across the board interesting so when you look at this that way you'll notice that the gambling is also not telling a pretty story in fact Virginia has a 94% odds of going rep sorry Democrat at the Senate level and that makes sense okay this is a state that uh kamla will almost definitely win just because she's a Democrat and Joe won the state in 2020 by about 10 uh so again this is a very under leverage position for the Republican and so even though hunga seems to be a solid candidate Tim Kane also has all the connections all these um Elite uh Beltway sort of fundraisers that are really synonymous with the victory in the state of Virginia and so for that reason we're going to leave that blue for now but addressing some of the other big States we also have as you can see Ohio's an extremely difficult thing to parse through because realistically speaking we don't have a good gauge as to what's going to happen in November the reason that I say this is because Trump is likely to win in November the state of Ohio by about 10 percentage points in fact in 2020 despite losing nationally he still won Ohio by several points and so that leads you to think that honestly a republican would do pretty well in the Senate but in this race you have sherro brown who's been there for decades and Beyond this he also has an appeal that is somewhat intangible and hard to perceive but basically you can gauge it the best I can I can try and it's that he has this sort of uh uh the bonafides of a workingclass sort of politician and a guy who will uh try to appeal to the blue collar worker way more than you could imagine the standard neoliberal Democrat can that being said we saw people like Tim Ryan who tried to play that same angle get triumphed by JD Vance in an order of about six percentage points that was the margin for Senate in the last election 24 presents a different problem of course sherro has has more of a reason to say that he will actually defend the worker in Ohio and so it's a difficult proposition as to ascertain who would win that being said of course we do have brown leading in the polls evidently by five this has been the uh stagnant amount that it's been you know this polling result is not really surprising again the most recent one was from two weeks ago um by rasmuson which is a pretty Republican friendly one or even Remmington or Fabrizio and they still have brown Up by Five Points on average not a good sign but again I think this is going to change I feel like you know in order for Trump to win by 10 and brown to win by five you would need about a quarter of trump voters to vote for brown it really doesn't check out um you could view this like the diet version of the Montana race where you have a a red state blue incumbent who is in trouble now obviously Montana's much more Republican than is Ohio so that's really the quandra we face right now but in so far as the betting goes you'll notice that Ohio is 56% odds of going uh Democrat despite it um also U being 44 % odds of Bernie Mareno the Republican candidate to win that seat and so it's a difficult difficult thing to predict as of right now it is blue according to the latest polls so we're going to respect that aspect of my video but let's also consider that this is likely to change in fact I'm pretty sure sherro Brown loses in November but we'll see we'll see looking to Pennsylvania this is a pretty difficult uh state for Republicans to win for two main reasons first is a strong Democrat incumbent the second would be that the Republican is not a great candidate what do I mean Rich McCormick does not have a solid history in Pennsylvania politics uh he does not appeal to the people that you would want uh to appeal to and so as a politician I don't think he's the greatest guy that being said though again this is all on paper I never met him but uh Bob Casey on the other hand has decades in the Senate kind of like sherod brown where you all of a sudden have somebody you have somebody who can clearly say that I've done X and Y and then has this appeal and people can understand why that is the case and so anyway to appeal to the authority of senority this is actually pretty important you know historically obviously incumbents win almost every single time I'd say like north of 80% of the time and when it comes down to a swing state while Trump might win Pennsylvania by a few points can Casey Win It by seven or eight percentage points according to these polls I somewhat that sorry I somewhat doubt that um Will he win by three or four like Emerson and R M says I can totally see that but let's look at the betting odds you'll notice that Pennsylvania has the proc of being an 86% odds of being won by Bob casy Jr that's kind of insane odds but you know what you could see it for what it is okay Bob Casey has outperformed even Barack Obama in 2012 I believe and so for him to be good in Pennsylvania makes a ton of sense again you would have to see uh the Republican for Senate McCormick do worse than Trump almost definitely in order for this to be the case which honestly is pretty likely because Trump has an appeal that uh McCormack does not and that's pretty plain to see and so I think the Democrats will more than likely retain Pennsylvania and if they don't that's a big night for Republicans but we're going to move on to another state I think the next one we want to address is going to be Michigan Michigan is an interesting one because ladin is leading right now by five that being said the polling hasn't really heated up too to too much and so there's still plenty of time for this to change in the state of Michigan that being said uh Trump is currently losing to Kamala and the polls in Michigan by two uh on average and so for sakin to do three points better is very interesting um sakin is in a really weird position because you have a person who is a neoliberal good at fundraising and that's about and she's Jewish so again that might run a face to a nich amount of democratic voters that are Arab or whatever and you have you have Mike uh Rogers who again is a pretty normal Republican but is that really going to cut it when in Michigan you want to appeal in specific to certain issues like for example if you had like a union president somehow that was Republican that'd do fantastic we don't have that and so the Republican Party seems to be in a weird position if you look at the uh the betting odds you'll notice that Democrats have a 77% chance of winning it and so it is likely that the Democrats will pull this out but I have a counternarrative to this if Trump ends up winning Michigan by north of one percentage point then odds are then whatever generic Republican behind him will also likely win now again this could be wrong but polarization makes it so that it's really hard to see any sort of concrete ticket splitting namely in Michigan whereas obviously in uh Pennsylvania you might see it a little more especially with a good candidate like Bob Casey but slotkin doesn't seem to have this amazing prowess as a politician that I've seen recently but we'll see if there's debates and how those line up but those probably would have a crazy impact on this election for Senate but let's move on to Wisconsin the state ride over the lake you'll notice that Tammy Baldwin is leading by 6.7 percentage points which is a ton in a swing state and in fact she's winning in every single poll over the past two or three months instead uh sorry uh except for a tied one by Remington research also look at this um well I can see it but anyway uh Harris is leading in Wisconson by one and so this is interesting for a couple different reasons so Baldwin is doing over five points better than uh than hovde and better than Kamala interesting um now this could be for a multitude of reasons Chief among them that obviously KLA does not appeal to the white working class voter I can just say that and Beyond this I also think that uh Tammy Baldwin fits it better the role to appeal to those types but also uh she is the incumbent Beyond just any sort of normal convention that's like the most basic one are you the incumbent or not uh so she's going to have name recognition over Eric hovde who is not like the celebrity or anything he seems to be a photogenic person and does fit the on paper role to run for Senate in Wisconsin the question is will he have the money to really compete against a Cavalcade of ads and all that you could imagine the Democrats all this money they'll pour into the state hovde will likely not be able to do that and not even spend half as much or fund raise a quarter as much as Baldwin it seems like a high high high bar to uh to get over but can Trump's goils actually lift them up is the question it's a very daunting task as you can see here Baldwin has an 83% odds of winning right now I do person predict personally that the polls will narrow as obviously there's not that many people that would say wow I really love Baldwin and I'm also voting Trump um and you know so it it just doesn't really make sense for Baldwin to win the seat by seven percentage points as being predicted in Wisconsin but let's also keep in mind folks that she is over 50% in the polling which is a fantastic uh result again if you're at over 50% in a 1 V one then you're pretty much winning every single time but the polls have been wrong before uh so honestly if Trump wins the state by a few points or even better then yes HOV would probably win because again HOV is not like a hated guy it's just like it's he's more of an unknown quantity and he hasn't had the fundraising yet to really get himself out there as compared to Baldwin things are likely to change though if there's a debate and he wins and Trump does pretty well in Wisconsin he could pull it out narrowly the Senate se but until then we're going to leave it blue but as for the state of uh Nevada let's get right into it so as you can see here Jackie Rosen is leading by 10 points over Sam Brown this is super unlikely to happen obviously Trump right now is leading Nevada by 1.4 percentage points and so for there to be like a 12% Discord is really not making any sense what likely is the case though is that Jackie Rosen will do better than Kamala probably but also that Sam Brown is being severely underestimated in fact I see this somewhat kind of like uh Wisconsin just that I feel like Trump is going to do better in Nevada than Wisconsin so therefore the Cod Tales will be a lot longer to grab on to and for brown to actually win this not on his own Merit but just more so because you're you're Republican sharing the ballot with Donald Trump keep in mind that in 2022 and actually if you look at it uh Nevada for the most part has been getting more Republican every election from 2016 onto 22 and predictably in 24 as well uh you know Adam lelt came super close to winning his election for Senate and there's a lot of indicators that would point to the fact the Republicans will do better in the Senate this time around um so yeah the polls don't really show that but honestly these polls are also having a ton of undecideds this is a very low-key nerdy observation so like the video If you appreciate the game I'm I'm about to give you so look here so while Rosen you have normal numbers like 48 47 49 50 even 54 percentage points you could see this but Brown's numbers are unrealistic like okay look 40 39 36 40 again that's not a realistic number to have brown if he loses would at least get you know like 47% of the votes something like this lose narrowly but still um so these numbers are just not very indicative of of what's going to happen that being said I think the most accurate of the latest polls came like about six weeks ago Believe It or Not by Remington research that posits that Rosen is winning by two the only reason why I lend that one more credibility over the others is because you look at the numbers and they make the most sense come November 5th what makes more sense to you Rosen 50 Brown 39 or would you say it's actually Remington that says Rosen 48 Brown 46 that's a lot more reasonable and what you'll notice is that there's about a 6% undecided in that survey that they committed to which means that obviously there's some breathing room for brown to make up the difference that being said we'll consult the betting as you can see here the betting odds have Nevada going 80% likely to Rosen over the Republican Sam Brown at am 20 percentage Point odds of winning so realistically speaking it is um the Democrats see to lose and so they're more likely to not to win it but we'll see in November if Trump's coils uh will lift up people like kov people like uh Bernie Moreno Etc we'll see but um last but not least is Arizona Arizona is a super complicated state for a myriad of different reasons okay right now Donald Trump is winning the State of Arizona against Harris by 02 percentage points 22 now that means that there's literally no cails there's no cushion here and so my whole hypothesis had been that you know Carri lake is pretty downtrodden like Pol uh what do you call it polling wise but you know the coils from Trump should Savor but that was when Biden was the nominee Trump was winning Arizona by like six so yeah could uh Carrie afford to lose some of the Trump vote and still win by a point or two sure but it's not the case anymore in fact it looks like Trump is going to have a hard time even winning Arizona least of all of your problems and I'm being sarcastic here is this abortion initiative that has officially been uh green lit to be on the ballot this is huge huge abortion is a thing that is very popular when it comes to like the conventional roie Wade uh nomenclature and so for this to be something in a purple State like ours I live in Arizona it's a horrible look for uh Carrie Lake because she in passing I think a few years ago must have said that she supported uh one of the rules we had as a state like in the 1800s that was like pro-life and it just makes her look awful again you can't really blame her for that because she had no idea that the Dos decision would have happened but it's a big political fumble not that you really look at it with hindsight that being said though let's look at this Galo is leading Lake by 6.7 percentage points again that's really rough um it's looking like the margin that Baldwin is winning over HOV day um with a couple distinct differences though the polling has been richer than it has been in Wisconsin so if you look at the the most recent polling you could have a pollster like Rasmus that has Trump winning by like three against Kamala now has G Lego up by eight I feel like that's inaccurate but still really bad really bad looking but but let's look at the betting odds Arizona right now is at an 81% odds of going to GGO over Lake like at under 20% really bad really bad so as of right now it is blue but I'll elaborate on my position here um it's pretty obvious though that kind of like Nevada it will narrow down again car's number num for the most part have been uh 41 47 42 42 42 40 these are not unreal uh these are not realistic okay there's too many undecideds right now as we get closer to November you'll see Galo probably being at like 50% and L at like 47 and so it's more so like a few points that you're behind by carry and not so much uh again you know being down by like eight or nine or 10 like other people are saying either uh but that's still a pretty disadvantageous position to be in uh know the name of the game for this campaign and I'll probably make a video on this specifically comment down below if you want to see it but it's it goes down to can you paint goo as wor than Harris or you know a socialist or whatever you want to call him and Ken Cary Lake get all the Trump vote okay not so much went over the middle that's kind of like a foregone conclusion but can you get 99% of the Trump vote if Trump is poised to win Arizona by like two given the abortion initiative on the ballot then you got to make sure virtually every single Trump voter is going for Lake cuz if not not she's going to lose now what I want you guys to look up as your homework before I end is going to be look up the 2022 senate election or sorry the 2020 uh presidential election in Arizona Trump basically ties against Joe Biden but Martha M against Mark Kelly loses by like two or three so I had predicted the whole time like hey Trump's going to win Arizona by like three and so then M will win by like half a point now God knows what happened four years ago anyway but the point being is like my basic logic was correct that she would lag him by a few points um and I was correct obviously and so I think a lot of the same math applies to Lake I think Lake will run behind Trump by a few points and uh but not too many and so you really are looking at how much Trump really wins by and then see those cails are long enough to grab onto the helicopter before it flies off the the pad and you're kind of stuck losing this election and so for right now um Arizona is more likely than not going blue Senate wise so right now we have a republican majority of 51 seats to the Democrats 49 um you can totally see why this is going to be the case if things don't change so in the next 72 days let's see if they do so like the video if you liked it subscribe if you haven't yet and I'll see you on the next video adios