Trump SURGES Past Kamala in Polls — Why Nate Silver Predicts a TRUMP WIN

it's a big week for American politics with Congress returning from their summer break speaker Johnson is preparing to fight for the save act and Donald Trump and kamla Harris are set to debate tomorrow night so Chris Bedford senior editor for politics and Washington correspondent for Blaze media wrote about the significance of this week in his latest piece at theblaze.com and he joins us now to break it all down along with Blaze TV host stuber gear who will be breaking down all of the Electoral College for us up as well but Chris let's start with you let's set the scene for the week what should we be watching out for well there a couple things coming down and I'll start with the smaller stuff that's still important the House of Representatives is back in session the house the Senate have been gone for over a month now on vacation so or at least back in their home districts so now there's plenty still to do so now there's going to be a bunch of votes coming through and speaker Johnson is set for his first Showdown yet with Mitch McConnell the head of the Republicans in the Senate um that's because Johnson is backing what most Republicans want what Donald Trump wants what even the donors want by attaching the save act which would block or make it actually more difficult for illegal aliens and non-citizens to vote in American elections attaching that to a short-term spending bill that would cover government spending into the new year and the next Administration now Mitch McConnell doesn't like that he doesn't want the fight he doesn't want to risk a shutdown but we we talked about it a lot of times in the show I think it's a pretty strong move by Johnson and we'll see of course if he ends up just saying oh we gave it our best shot Congress loves to do that and then just throw up his hands and say sorry guys the Democrats are in charge of my slim Republican majority he does that a lot so here's a it'll be interesting to see where that pressure comes down but of course the main event which I can't wait to cover live with you all tomorrow is going to be the debate I mean kamla Harris is someone who hasn't been out in public she's done one I think 16 or 17 minute video that was with interview that was with uh with her VP everything else has been scripted just today is the first day she's even posted any kind of policies to her page and most of them are just attacking Donald Trump the media's tried to sell her as some kind of Agent of Change but she doesn't actually seem to have ideas or be willing to go out there she's far from they're trying to make her into a Barack Obama but she's not Barack Obama by any stretch so Tuesday nights debate we actually see her out there we'll see how she performs now don't expect her to implode on stage she's capable she's been trained enough to not do as poorly as she did in 2020 in the primaries but I I do expect that he's going to need a rockstar Knight because she's starting to Sag in these polls Chris on the budget stuff is there any reason to believe this isn't just like fantasy league trading like it's just not real and I I look at the Save act would be something that obviously would be good for the country it's obviously a good thing but you know we've talked to Mike Lee about it talked to chip Roy about it they're really excited about pushing this but at the end of the day the moderates in the house are not going to allow a shutdown no matter what the Democrats have to know that right I think the Democrats are going to try and push that uh here's the deal what they have though the shutdown right now the moderates pockets there was really anti-shutdown to begin with there was a lot of the guys who are around the DC Beltway area representing parts of Northern Virginia for example who got their butts kicked when that was a shut down there are so many federal employees coming back that stuff is kind of gone lot of those Republican districts in part because of these fights and also because of the expanding government Workforce those they don't have the same say that they used to have and here's another interesting thing that makes us different from the Obamacare fights or other fights that you've seen in the House Representatives in the past is this is a very popular message this is popular with Democrats it's popular with Independents it's popular with um moderates it's popular generally across the board Democrats are stuck in the difficult messaging battle now they have more access to bigger guns in corporate media so that of course is always going to help and Mitch McConnell is saying listen I don't want any fights and like you said being disappointed is pretty standard when you follow this sort of stuff in DC but there there the messaging is so strong and the caucus actually so much more unified their with their ability for example to make money off of forcing this this vote to be able to fund raise off of it and say Democrats want illegal aliens to vote what are you going to do will be tough and it also it puts a lot of Democrats especially some of the vulnerable ones in the senate in very difficult positions all right Gentlemen let's get nerdy with the Electoral College shall we because Nate silver has put out his latest bulletin and it actually has Donald Trump winning the Electoral College 312 to 226 now Stu I watched the stes America election special where you had your chalkboard it wasn't even Glenn's chalkboard it's your own chalkboard that you had out doing the Electoral College so break this down for us what do you think of what Nate silver is putting out is it correct do we think that Trump has this kind of momentum right now you know Nate silver is an interesting guy because he he's been around it for a long time I I you know he goes back to you know he was at 538 which was with ABC at the end in Disney before that he was with the New York Times before that he was just an independent blogger and just doing that and I remember reading his stuff way back in fact he was one of the first people that I ever read that called the possibility of a tea party um Revolution back in 2010 he was back in 2009 talking about that um and he got kind of famous because in 2012 he said Barack Obama was going to win so all the Democrats liked him and then in 2016 he said that Donald Trump was going to lose and so all the Democrats got mad at him because he got that one wrong even though he was much more I mean again he he's giving a probabilistic uh prediction so he he I think he was something like 30 you know 34% something like that or 28% I Mayan it was 28% chance that Trump was going to win which was higher than almost every other projection at that time and obviously he wasn't I wouldn't say right on that but he was closer to being right and then uh 2020 he was he predicted Biden and Biden and Biden won um he likes to go against the grain a little bit I think he likes irritating mainstream media types even though he's a Democrat I mean he's no no Trump fan by any means um his prediction is I would say of all the stuff that I read from all these guys he's about as optimistic for Trump right now as anybody is um he uh is maybe even a little bit more optimistic than I am honestly at this point he says I think it's 64.8% chance uh today uh of uh of Donald Trump winning the election part of this is the way his model Works around um the basically KLA Harris had this kind of big rise that we all kind of remember this this boomlet that after the um Joe Biden thing disintegrated they put KL in she has this nice month of of positive media she Rises way up the way his media his model works and most of them do they have a convention bounce estimate so they assume a two or three point bounce for the candidate uh during a convention you get all this glowing media coverage well she had just come out of a month of glowing media coverage so there really wasn't any more room for her to bounce when she didn't bounce up at that period his model said well wait a minute why isn't she going up she this must be negative for her so she that his model adjusted up the chances of Donald Trump winning because they didn't see that bump I'd argue the bump kind of already happened um if you take the bump out of his projections Trump I think is still a very slight favorite so he's what he's seeing is I think what uh what the polls are showing as well which is uh Kamala is known for this right in 2019 she had two little boomlets one that happened right when she launched she had a really good launch crowds everywhere big speeches very well produced when she's in that mode she is actually somewhat effective when she can be very much on script and really manage that process she's not terrible the second one came after she had a very rehearsed moment in the debate calling Joe Biden a races which is just hilarious uh that that's how she got that second boom and she moved in in uh prediction Market she actually led the field two times in 2019 led the field ahead of Bernie Sanders ahead of Joe Biden both times as we remember remember they collapsed the second one thanks to tulsy gabard uh memorably um but when you look at the where way this is going it's not surprising that she would start to feed there's just no meat here right you guys have seen it she's not saying anything she finally put policies out on her website last night last night I missed it I was so mad we were talking about today and I missed the policy bit she's finally got one but I mean almost all of her policies are things that she's essentially trying to push herself to the right and Bernie Sanders said this over the weekend uh Ed Marky said it a few weeks ago she is releasing she's not flip-flopping these are not pure flip-flops what she's doing is saying I pragmatically want to win this election so I'm going to hide the leftwing positions I have and Float out through Representatives these more moderate positions that actually care about border security it's a lie she is the same person she was in 2019 that's how she will govern if she's elected so I mean that makes a lot of sense to me and certainly I agree that um there is no there there when there's no there there there's a certain element that you just can't hide she's not someone who can hide the fact that there's nothing to hide some people can I don't think she can um but nonetheless what I want to hear uh in the in the time they have left from both of you is thoughts about the very complicated question of pulling itself right I mean in 2020 Trump was ahead or was he right um so I mean do you think that we've gotten better at polling or worse and can we trust the polls what I always like to say say about the polls is people want them to be these things that tell us specifics and what they do is tell us generalities and people hate that so I really like we just expect too much out of them um a poll that is really valuable to tell us for example this is a close election it is not valuable to tell us whether Donald Trump or KLA Harris is up by a half a point it's just not going to be that specific now 2022 actually was a really good year for polls um it was had a smaller error uh than uh some other year years 2020 as we all know right was a a year where it was a Biden was heavily favored and the election was super close 2016 uh Hillary Clinton was very favored Donald Trump W up winning but what we forget sometime 2022 was the opposite it went toward Democrats the polling error 2012 was the same thing Mitt Romney was right there in that election and W up losing in in an election that wasn't memorably close uh those those polling erors bounce around there's a lot of things you can look at we kind of have a new tool we're going to be releasing here in the next week or so that kind of tries to take all this stuff and put it into one number because now they're like election models and polling averages and prediction markets and all that we're going to put all that into one model so that everyone can kind of understand it as easily as possible at least understand what these polls are saying to your point though every single year it gets harder to poll every single year there's less money to spend on it every single year people don't want to participate in these polls it gets more and more difficult to get accurate representations as what's going on all right Bedford give us your final thoughts bring us home your thoughts on polling I think su's exactly right probably knows more than I'll ever forget on on this sort of thing or forget more than I'll ever know on this sort of thing and that's one of the things that he touched on at the very end there that you have to keep in mind when you're looking at focus groups when you're looking at polls is the people who answer focus groups are those people you pull off the road and you can get to sit in a room for eight hours in exchange for pizza so they're not exactly representative of a lot of other folks that you might see around the country a lot of people who are going to be voting the one thing I would caution though on these polls and the optimism is a lot of them are really especially Nate Silver's model here and also Kaki uh who's been talking about this really are counting on the shy Trump voters those PE how Donald Trump has has actually won more votes each election than he has been polling for and that they say would bear very Bode very well for the president a former president but this time I think voters may be a little bit less shy SP four years of a president who promised to be a moderate who's been as far left as you can basically get we've got another four years of potentially coming for the country and you've seen athletes comedians sports stars or movie stars talking about Donald Trump in a positive light I think some of the stigma may have actually finally broken which would mean the polls could potentially be Clos to accurate [Music]