Week 14 | Justin's 2024 CFL Football Picks Show

what's happening everybody Justin Bridgewater's finest on YouTube Blockbuster guy on Twitter I told you this week's episode was going to be just a little bit different and this is exactly what I mean welcome to week 14 of my weekly CFL football pick show for the 2024 CFL season and we're throwing it back to your boy Bridgewater's finest the early days of Bridgewater's finest the sunglasses clad um Hawaiian uh hand gesture throwing early days of Bridgewater's finest and this is going to be a different episode because this is going to be a one taker ladies and gentlemen I have my week one live stream for week one in the NFL of 2024 literally happening tomorrow night so this is going to be a one taker that there's only going to be a very brief edit at the beginning and a very brief edit at the end and other than that one take mistakes are staying in we're going to have some fun this week and I had some fun last week Man 9 and three across all the picks 3 in one Straight Up 3 in one against the spread 3- one over under so look I'm 3219 and one straight up now and two games over 500 on both of the betting picks at 27 and 25 now a full 17 games over 500 on the season it feels really good on a real hot streak here over the last like I'd say six weeks we're we're we're we're doing some good stuff around here so yeah 9 and three last week we're in the right direction let's keep it up CFL fantasy I guess I struggled like 93.3 is what I put up in week 13 which doesn't seem too bad but then you look at the the actual like the whole game leaderboard there was somebody that had 200 points last week they had Tim white with the captain C multiplier Tim White had like 72 points on his own so 93 doesn't seem like too bad to me but I lost a lot of ground overall across the whole game 12 97.5 now on the season for CFL fans F which I still think is fairly good Chad Kelly was my most outstanding player last week I had the captaincy multiplier on him he put up just under 254 points at 23.9 so it was what was that uh 40 47.8 I think is what he W wound up uh giving me as as a total so he was still my highest natural scorer we're going to give Chad Kelly theop for CFL fantasy and we got a four game slate this week that includes a pair of rematches coming off of Labor Day weekend so we've got the BC Lions in Montreal taking on the Alouettes we got the Toronto Argos in Ottawa taking on the red blacks we've got the Riders and bombers rematching in the banjo Bowl this time in Winnipeg and we've got the stamps and the Elks rematching from last week this time in Edmonton so I'm going to give you the lines right away I'm going to give you the lines up front and kind of see if you can sort of maybe guess where I might be going with some of these maybe I'm going to give you all that information up front cuz cuz again one taker we're going fast today uh Montreal is favored by three and a half points at home against BC Ottawa is a very marginal home favorite minus 1.5 uh over Toronto and the bombers and Elks are both Two and a Half Point favorites coming into their games this week we've got a 50 and a half in BC Montreal we've got a 51 and A2 in Toronto and Ottawa we've got a 48 and A2 between Saskatchewan and Winnipeg even though they literally just put up what 68 points last week they only gave us a 48 and2 and a 502 in Calgary and Edmonton so let's start with that first game BC and Montreal Montreal coming into this game off of their buy the BC Lions are going to be playing their sixth consecutive football game since their last buy and hey Nathan roor ladies and gentlemen finally arriving this CFL season in his third game he puts up a very Nathan Ro esque per performance 354 allpurpose yards four total touchdowns including one on the ground and what did I say last week he adds that element to their offense that Rush element from the quarterback position and again it's not that Vernon Adams doesn't have that because he does I think Nathan roor is the better Runner of the football maybe people would kind of go back at me at that but that's at the very least how I feel but he adds that element to the quarterback position for BC and it really shot mean they they did not really give Ottawa much of a chance to breathe in touchdown Pacific in front of Ro's like actual Hometown a crowd in Victoria BC rather than in Vancouver so it was a heck of a performance there I will note he did throw an interception and that's I think he's thrown at least one interception in all three of his games this year but even if you look back at like his like record setting half seon where he threw like what was it whatever it was 25 touchdown passes in eight games I'm pretty sure he had 10 picks so it's not that he's not going to throw interceptions that's Nathan RoR being Nathan RoR like Shooters shoot like that's the quarterback that he is so it doesn't surprise me that he's got I think three or four interceptions so far in his three games you're talking about the Montreal aletes on the other side not only are they going to be rested out of their buy but ladies and gentlemen this is a team that is predicated entirely like or not entirely I shouldn't say but it predicated very strongly on the defensive side of the football last four games my de efficiency metric rates them at a 19.6 it is the number one across the entire CFL Winnipeg was close but then of course they got in a shootout on Labor Day weekend with Saskatchewan so that uh numberers going was going to have gone down the way I'm looking at the defenses in the league right now it's the Montreal alloet and it's everybody else and I got to shout out Walter Fletcher it's not just because he retweeted me on Twitter but Walter Fletcher in the aloette last three football games I love love love the way they are utilizing Walter Fletcher he is averaging 16 either carries or Targets in the past game per game over his last three he's got 48 in the last three games that's really solid volume and look Walter Fletcher is an absolute weapon out of the back field for the aletes they're using him exceptionally well this is an offense that's got a lot of weapons across it Walter Fletcher is arguably their biggest one shutting him down is a big key to shutting down the aletes but I haven't seen a lot of teams be able to do that this season I just don't necessarily believe the BC Lions will be that team this week give me the Alouettes coming off the buy again there's a rest discrepancy here let's take the aletes at home to beat the BC Lions I want to see if Nathan roor has an odd core coming up and we got to stop for water like I said one taker ladies and G gentlemen so I'm going to take the alloet to win the game but I'm going to hedge my bets here because this is I mean this is certainly a game that if Nathan RoR has a Nathan RoR performance then this could be a game that the BC Lions win outright so where it's that extra half point on the hook there like three and a half I'm actually going to take the plus three and a half on BC and hedge my bets I'll go for a close game but it protects against the Lion's upset total in the game 50 and a half I think I'm going to take the under on it I'm not predicting that same kind of Nathan RoR performance that we saw last week so give me the under on the 50 and a half we're going to go like 2423 for the aletes maybe it's a last second field goal maybe they have the last score of the game in the last minute something like that I'll take the aletes to win it 24 to 23 Al's win give me the plus three and a half on BC under on the 50 and a half point total let's go to that second game the Toronto Argos in Ottawa taking on the red blacks red blacks coming into this their fifth consecutive game since their last buy the Argos come in on the tail end of back-to-back Road games now both of these teams dropped their games last week but these were two losses that did not come in the same fashion whatsoever like I said the red blacks like barely had a chance last week against the Lions the Lions started out hot on the offensive side kept going basically all game long Ottawa simply did not have an answer Toronto started their game exceptionally late they basically didn't show up for the first quarter they spotted Hamilton I think an 18-point lead after the first quarter Hamilton tried to do Hamilton things which they've done a lot this year which is blow leads in the second half especially in the fourth quarter they tried to do Hamilton things but they actually managed to hold on and win that game so again Argo started super late they did Forge The Comeback it just fell a little bit short I got to tell you between these these two teams the Argos feel about what I've felt about them most of the season I don't like the fact that they're like completely misusing Kadeem KY out of the back field I don't know whether he's injured or what the deal is but they're just not using Kadeem KY the way they should be using Kadeem KY and maybe that's just taking Chad Kelly some time to figure that back out I don't know but uh this Ottawa red blacks team does not feel the same as they felt to me coming out of their buy and I want to say their buy was either week I think it was week nine was their last buy since then they had the tie against the riders that weird 2222 tie they barely survived the Stampeders at home I think they won that game by like two points they beat the Lions two weeks ago in Nathan R's second game before he kind of remembered how to be Nathan RoR and then last week they they get fustigate like I mean that they they they didn't have a chance so I'm just since they come out of their buy I don't think this is a particularly good football team and as much as I hated seeing how Toronto started that game last week they did outscore Hamilton 25 to 10 after the first quarter so they they still like felt like the Argos to me albeit just for three quarters of the game ultimately what it comes down to is I trust one of these sides more than I trust the other one I'm going to go with the Argos again I went with them last week I said it wasn't a game they could afford to lose now they've come into a territory where this is a game that I think they have to win because again we're looking at like HomeField Advantage here the East semifinal it is critical it is Paramount that you be the home team in that game so this is a game they absolutely positively need to win so I'm going to take the Argos here even though they're on the tail end to back toback Ries let's take Toronto on the road in Ottawa to get the win over the red blacks pause for water again so obviously since I'm taking Toronto to win give me the Plus one.5 on the Argos against the spread second straight road team I'm taking against the spread with a 51 and a half point total I think I have to go over this is a red blacks defense that just had whatever was 30 some points dropped on them last last week Toronto was in a shootout of a game as well I think there's going to be a lot of points scored in this one let's go over the 51 a half point total and I'm going to go like 3321 something like that in favor of the Argos a solid couple of possession win for Toronto maybe Ottawa scores a garbage time touchdown it's going to have to come in the pass game because they cut their leading uh running back earlier today which is an interesting conversation in and of itself I'm curious to know what you guys think about that in the comments down below but we're going to go with the Argos we're going to take the plus one and A2 give me the over on the 51 1/2 point total 3321 Toronto all right rematch of sasy Winnipeg banjo Bowl ladies and gentlemen the Riders playing their 10th consecutive football game this week that is gross that is a failure of the schedule makers in the CFL for one team like they did to Winnipeg earlier to play 10 consecutive games between a buy and I know NFL fans are going to be like what's the big deal about that this happens in the NFL blah blah blah blah blah teams don't get a buy week until like week 13 or 14 yeah in the CFL there's three by weeks they're we're not CFL players are not used to that like they're just they're not used to playing that many games in a row it's amazing what the body can do once it gets used to it but then you ask it to do something it's not used to and you're going to start seeing the injuries crawl up and I think that's kind of what you see in the CFL if you go back historically 10 straight games is ridiculous for these schedule makers so last week obviously like I said this is a rematch last week 35 to 33 final for the Winnipeg Blue Bombers they had a comeback late in that game and it was decided basically by a missed UH 60 yard field goal attempt by Brett lther and I ain't going to hang that on Brett lther because I tell you what that kick at the end of that game I bet you that Kick's good from 55 if you give him five more yards I think that kick is good because I'm pretty sure uh lucky Whitehead fielded the ball between the four and the three so if that's a 55 yard kick instead of a 60 I bet you that kick goes and that was after an onside kick after a touchdown where the Riders recover the onside kick they get uh Harris throws an interception but it's pass interference so the ball gets moved there and then lther tries the 60 Y and uh just just playe can't get it to go so a bunch of weirdness at the end of that game but that was an absolute slugfest uh in the good way and in the not good way because Zach karos for what seems like the third Labor Day weekend in a row takes a a dirty cheap shot uh in the game against Saskatchewan like it's just it just seems like it's a pattern like it happens every year um this is going to be a dirty rematch ladies and gentlemen this is going to be penalty fueled this is going to be ugly this is not going to be a pretty football game it ain't going to happen I'm is going to tell you that right up front I don't necessarily know that it's going to be like fireworks on the scoreboard but there's going to be fireworks on the football field to be sure there is no word on Zach karos yet whether he's going to start in this game or whether he's not if it's not Zach karos that means it's Chris strer I think we know what Chris strer can do we know what he can't do I don't think he's a starting quarterback in this league in saying that the riters dominated the quarterback matchup last week with Zach karos in there Kos had like 200 some yards and a touchdown and a pick uh before he got knocked out and Trevor Harris threw for like 370 yards in three touchdowns they dominated the quarterback matchup anyway and still lost so this bombers team can beat this Riders team even if they get dominated at the League's most important position we just saw them it last week so that being said I think I got to lean on Winnipeg here again even though they won last week weirdly enough it feels like a Revenge game because of what happened to karos um yeah I think I got to go with Winnipeg here and again that rest discrepancy is just crazy again no team should have to play 10 consecutive games it's ridiculous that they do also if there's no fine in suspension for that hit on Kos and again I'm not a bombers Homer nobody can hang that on me that's not the case I'm not not a homer for anybody I'm a football fan first and foremost that is what I am if there's no suspension for that player safety doesn't matter to this league period end of story if you're a Riders fan I apologize that's my take feel free to Flame me in the comments so I like Winnipeg to win this game outright I am going to lay the minus two and a half on them against the spread as well I like him to win it's a small price to pay let's lay it total in the game 48 1 12 points I think this is going to be an under because because I think these two teams are going to be more focused on beating the holy hell out of each other than they're going to be on putting points on the scoreboard so let's take the under and go with like a 23 to 20 something like that I think it's still going to be a tight game these are two very evenly matched teams the whole West Division basically feels like it's going to be just a Sprint to the Finish even the teams that are at the bottom still have a shot technically so the whole West Division feels like it's up for grabs let's go with a tight competitive football game that's going to get ugly penalty filled for sure 23- 20 in favor of the bombers who win cover the minus 2 and A2 and take the under on the 482 point total and the last game is the Calgary Stampeders in Edmonton taking on the Elks and we take our final break for water so another rematch from last week obviously a dominant offensive performance from the Edmonton Elks last week putting up 35 points and we saw four Jake Mayer interceptions in that game to the Elks the Elks are not like the legion of boom in you know cfl's version like it's that's not the case but Jake Mayer still throwing up four picks last week an implosion of a performance after a string of Fairly good games I've been as critical of Jake mayor as a lot of other people that was an implosion like I'm not going to say all of them were his fault but it was still kind of an implosion you never like to see that uh I don't think there's any winning with that stamp Peters defense I watched the vast majority I think I missed a little bit of that game but I watched the vast majority of that game and I'm just like they're not doing anything like there's there's no resistance here there's no resistance in the pass defense there's no resistance in the run defense they're not really getting a lot of pressure like Edmonton's doing whatever they want out there and I don't see any reason why in the span of a week that's going to change I mean it it goes to Edmonton where I guess Edmonton hasn't been very good at home in recent memory so maybe you can hang your hat on that but I mean Calgary's also been absolute dog water on the road so I I just I don't see that changing at any point and I tell you something this entire Calgary coaching staff you want to talk about somebody that's on the hot seat look no further anyway we're on the Elks here even though Edmonton's going to come into this playing their ninth straight game that's a long time to go obviously between by weeks so there's definitely a rest discrepancy here but I'm not going to lean into that rest discrepancy this time let's take the Elks at home to get the win over the stamps I like the Elks to lay the minus two and a half as well like them to win small price to pay they just beat this same team by 15 points last week so let's go with the minus two and a half I also like the over in this one again coming off a game where they just put up 55 you're going to give me a 50 and A2 I'm going to say thank you very much and I think it's going to be right around the the same score I'm going to go like 3123 something like that so technically a one possession game but I figure maybe a Calgary score in garbage time maybe to make it kind of close um yeah I just don't um I don't know I just don't see Calgary winning this one so Elks win Elks cover the minus two and a half give me the over on the 50 and a half point total 31 to 23 now before I get you out of here little bit of uh CFL fantasy the game's not going to lock I don't think until tomorrow because of the holiday but here's the kind of the direction I'm looking at in fantasy see if we can do this in like oh give me like two and a half minutes maybe so quarterback I went with Chad Kelly last week it paid off I'm gonna look Chad's way again Drew Brown might be an option here because I don't think Ottawa is going to run the ball very much so we might have 50 pass attempts from Drew Brown so on a volume perspective might look at him could look at Trey Ford if he's ready to play could look at MBT if he's ready to play CU he just threw a couple of touchdowns and a lot of yards against this same defense at the running back position I think I'm basically locked in Walter Fletcher William stanback and I'm going to stick with those two probably for as long as I possibly can aside from maybe going with like Oliva on a matchup basis because those are the two teams Montreal and BC I know they're playing each other but they're the two teams that employ their running backs I believe the best in the CFL I may also look at uh Javon leak or Kevin Brown whichever one of those two gets the start for Edmonton at the wide receiver position either devaris Daniels or Damonte coxy for Toronto especially if I go Chad Kelly maybe look to stack him with one of his top receivers there um the whole Riders wide receiver core especially the guys at the top you're looking at guys with five six seven eight targets and you can pretty well lock it in that they're going to get that so I mean no reason not to look their way for f a fantasy perspective and look the Edmonton Elks they look I mean Kevin Jones like just just lighting lighting things on fire right now for the Elks but look um curle gens Jr same deal um Gino Lewis I think caught a touchdown last week so there's a lot of options there in that Edmonton wide receiver core as well from the flex position I'm looking at either a Ryder killer Nick dempy or sole reason to feel good about the stamp Peters offense Reggie Bagon um although you know I tell you the last couple of weeks um J uh Jaylen Philpot has actually had a pretty solid uh role in that offense I think he's caught like 15 balls in the last three weeks or something like that so he might be somebody that I look at too if I need to save a little bit of money on the defensive side look I said the alows are the best defense in the league I'm probably going to go their way but I could be successfully tempted to go with the four interception Edmonton Elks on the defensive side entirely possible that's it that's the speed round it's still going to be 20 some minutes but this is as fast as I can go ladies and gentlemen that's it for me Justin Bridgewater's finest on YouTube Blockbuster guy on Twitter week 14 CFL show in the books one taker no edits right into your computer screen thank you so much for taking the time to watch and we'll see you tomorrow night NFL week one live stream let's get it