15 Secrets Vegas is Telling Us About the 2024 Fantasy Season

its rude to skip intros we finally have the full lines for us out there per Las Vegas the betting Capital the football capital of the world all right so we are breaking down each position quarterback wide receiver running back tight end in terms of what Vegas is telling us about the upcoming fantasy football season I think this had been our most popular video up to date this summer so I wanted to do a part two of it all right and that's what this is and I'll tell you what the very first thing that Vegas is telling us is that Travis Kelce not going to have a great week one you know why because Underdog fantasy as him said at 0.5 receiving yards for week one all right they just want to get you on the platform they are giving you an absolutely free Square for this first game all right Travis Kelce half a receiving yard on Underdog fantasy it is quite literally free money all right so go download the underdog fantasy app it's the first link down below use code bdge when you get on there you're going to get a big deposit bonus you get that Travis Kelce free square and you get our draft guide email to you absolutely free all right Travis Kelce week one about to be a movie let's talk quarterback so basically what I did was this Underdog obviously does beste ball drafts and they have ADP from people that are drafting in paid money leagues every draft that's done on Underdog is a buying league so the ADP is is is relatively sharp but now they have the lines out the pick them lines for players season long statistics so we have receptions for a lot of players we have passing yards rushing yards touchdowns or whatever so what I did I took these hands I took these hands I got into the go Garden right and I manually calculated out based on the season long stats they have for these players the fantasy points of all of the players available right and they don't have every single player they don't have every single stat for every player but I did my best to grab every player that they do have and then calculate out their stats for season long and compare them to ADP and see where the biggest discrepancies are and just overall differences that we see from fantasy ADP to what Vegas is actually telling us in terms of what we can be in store for this year here so when we break down the list which we'll put up on the screen there's not a big discrepancy in the top four Allen Mahomes Herz Lamar Jackson all have one two three four in terms of fantasy points and they are one two three four in terms of Underdog ADP no real surprise there and if you go on Underdog fantasy to look at these pick them lines some of the quarterbacks don't have rushing yards so what I did was give them hopefully a practical realistic number that I can go by like I don't know that Mahomes had one but I looked at like his last three years and they were all similar so I gave him those statistics and anyone who's like non- rushing quarterback I gave him like 1.5 rushing touchdowns anyone who's a little bit up maybe I gave him a boost so I think at the end of the day even if I'm not spot on I'll probably be within like 10 overall fantasy points of what they're adding to their fantasy point total just from rushing alone so I think it was relatively accurate given all the information that we have at our disposal so the first real difference we have is QBs Dak Prescott is calculated as having the fifth most fantasy points per Vegas while he has the ninth ADP and I think that's okay because if Dak Prescott hits he's going to have his shitload of fantasy points this is the team that's set up to throw the ball a ton this is a team that doesn't have any real weapons in the back field so they're not going to operate through the ground game we saw post by last year the Dak and cidd combination after week seven after the week seven by they were both the quarterback one and the wide receiver one in fantasy football from week eight to the end of the season so he can be in for a year where he is throwing the ball uh a ton here all right I do think there's a little bit more risk with the guy like Dak involved because their offense is going to run so heavily through CD lamb like if he were to go down that offense has problems afterwards right like they got Brandon Cooks who is a 31y old receiver that hasn't topped 700 yards in multiple years Jake Ferguson's cool but you're not running an offense through the other pieces that Dallas has outside of SE lamb so I think there's a little bit of fragility there there's a little bit of risk there baked in that makes sense but I do think people are starting to Discount what his ceiling is and how good he was uh last year because you have these like young exciting mobile quarterbacks like Anthony Richardson who's next CJ strad who's next Kyler Murray who's next are all relatively in the same space but they're more exciting they're younger they're more explosive so you get ahead of yourself but I still think Dak is a really good value pick the next big discrepancy we have here is Trevor Lawrence he is the 10th ranked QB per Vegas in terms of fantasy points but his ADP is all the way down at 16th in drafts right now and iide I think more with it's kind of crazy he's actually above Jordan love for fantasy points I think I I SED more so with the with Vegas here than I do Underdog and I think that that'll probably be the case more often than not like the underdog ADP is based on you guys drafting in the market versus Vegas and Vegas typically right with these kind of things so when I look at T law I'm probably closer to where the fantasy points have him where he's like right below Brock pie interestingly enough he's right below uh Kyler Murray like six points off in terms of fantasy points but there is like a small almost like a tier there where if we're going just off of guys who are within one Fantasy Point of each other per game it goes from Anthony Richardson all the way down to Joe burrow you got a rich you got shroud you got Kyler Murray Brock purty Trevor Lawrence Jordan love Joe burrow and then it gets the next group of guys but what I would say here is like when you get into that tier especially if you're in a one quarterback League don't stress too much about these guys because at the end of the day it's the reason like late round quarterback became a thing is because at the end of the day they're going to finish within a couple you know at worst like two two and a half points per game difference over the course of the Season like sure some of them have more ceiling weeks like shroud and Murray probably have a better week to week ceiling than maybe a guy like pie or Trevor Lawrence or Jared gof or whatever but realistically at the end of the year there won't be that big of a difference we do see a huge difference with Joe burrow he is the 12th rank QB in terms of fantasy points on Vegas but he is the seventh ranked in terms of Underdog ADP and that again is probably due to like his floor the excitement of Joe burrow but clearly there's a discrepancy there between what Vegas expects expects him to do statistically and maybe there's a little bit of Jamar Chase factored in with the risk there maybe there's a little bit of an injury risk there but people love Joe burrow now this next tier kind of interesting Fantasy Point wise you have like these older veteran floor quarterbacks jar gof K cousins Aaron Rogers who are 13 14 15 in terms of fantasy points and then you have who I think are more exciting fun explosive upside QBs In Tua Caya Williams Jaden Daniels where they're below them in terms of Vegas fantasy points but above them in terms of Underdog ADP this is situation where I actually probably lean closer to Underdog ADP because I like the weekly upside there if you are in a one quarterback League you're not really shooting for floor like you don't want Aaron roders as your one quarterback League guy right because there's going to be others available on the waiver wire if he can't hit a ceiling then you could always drop him and replace him with a guy like Jaden Daniels or whatever so I lean more towards the ADP there but they are telling you something man when you look at the Fantasy Point numbers like there is a reason again that Vegas stays in business and it's because they are really accurate with pred and like weighing the risk versus the upside where a lot of times when you're drafting in fantasy like you're only looking at upside and you're hoping that it hits and I think that's a good way to play but I also think you could learn a lot from hopefully Vegas acting as like bumpers for y'all let's move to RBs on the goal line the running back position now this was a different angle that I took given that they only have like reception lines for like the top six or seven running backs so without having like a clear Baseline for their f Fantasy Point numbers via receptions you can't get an accurate fantasy point total so I just wanted to look at the rushing touchdown lines and see where we were at here and as you can see by the chart we only have six running backs that have a rushing touchdown line above seven and a half so you have Kenneth Walker at eight and a half deont at nine and a half Kiren at nine and a half JT at nine and a half Derrick Henry at 10 and a half and Christian mcaffrey at 11 and a half and I actually think this is somewhere where you could take advantage of this cuz I'm like that feels like a really low number given how many touchdowns are historically just scored on the goal line so I went back over the last like 14 years realistically and you could see this chart and I compiled the number of running backs each year that I've scored eight or more rushing touchdowns as you could see it's typically in the it's typically in like the 12 13 range we've gotten up to 15 before we've gotten as low as seven but seven was the lowest by far that was the only year going all the way back to 2019 where it was fewer than double digit running backs scoring eight plus rushing touchdowns on average as you can see it is 12 and a half running backs that score eight or more touchdowns and I I think identifying the guys that you feel really strongly are going to have the goal line role in their offense and a relatively high-scoring like functional offense are the ones to attack that have a good chance of being above that eight line so week 1 and season-long bets I took this line on Underdog and it's Zeke higher than 5 and a half rushing touchdowns Rashad white higher than five and a half Zach Moss higher than six and a half Isaiah Peko higher than six and a half with those guys I feel good that they're in good offenses maybe outside of Rashad white but I see him being the complete goal line back like we saw in the preseason we saw it all last year so he's the one where we're in a little bit of a questionable offense but I'm actually probably most secure about his role and Isaiah peco's role like Zeke in Dallas he'll probably finish with six I think he'll have the goal line rle and this is a very high-scoring offense obviously then you have Zach moss in Cincinnati where I think he's way more likely to be Cincinnati's goal line back than a dude like Chase Brown who brings like a level of explosion to the offense so as you can see here like you've got my picks there and again you could follow everything that I do throughout the year if you want to track me on picket but for y'all that are like getting into football season and you have a ton of different books whether you play on Underdog or you play on you know uh B MGM or FanDuel or DraftKings this app picket is [ __ ] phenomenal because you could sync all of your sports books together so you know it's it's Sunday we're in a [ __ ] frenzy and you've got like 75 different bets going at once pick it tracks all of them it syncs all your books you literally just like put your username in it syncs it the app is absolutely free so go download it in the App Store the link is down below it makes your life so easy and it tracks how well you do throughout the year you could set it to like let me see how I did last week let me see how I did last month let me see how I did over the course of the season and it's got all the sports too so if you're into NFL MLB NBA this is like where this is where you need to be throughout the entire season if you are someone who is like playing not only fantasy but obviously if you are in like the gambling space picket tracks all this stuff for you so again you could track me the link down below that you use will automatically make you follow me on picket when you create an account and if it asks for a code just put in bdg again it's absolutely free you don't have to pay anything they're actually going to give you a free $100 or more on your account for whatever reason but it is what but yeah I've taken a shitload of season long uh props as well as some week one stuff so if you want to Trail me for week one these will be updated throughout you got Naji Harris over eight and a half receiving yards for week one you got Josh Jacobs his longest reception over 10 and a half I think those are absolute locks because when I think about Naji Harris we have Jaylen Warren who's likely Gonna Miss week one for Naji Harris eight and a half receiving yards I think he would hit that even if Jaylen Warren is playing because they're gonna have screen set up as an extension of their run game and I think Naj Harris will catch three if not four passes in week one if he can't get over eight and a half yards then actually is probably just Naji Harris who he thought he was but that feels locky Josh Jacobs AJ Dylan on the IR Marshon Lloyd has not practiced yet he's not back from his hamstring injury so Josh Jacobs is going to have a massive role and I think he's a guy is going to get heavily involved in the screen game as well and utilize all over the formation so 10 and a half as a high reception I felt pretty good about if you want to take his overall receiving yards I want to say it's like 16 and a half on Underdog right now for week one against Philadelphia so yeah again hop on pick it you could sync all your bets on there if you want to Trail my bets I'm going be making them all on Underdog so again use the code bdge you'll get that Travis Kelce free Square as you can see I have not actually used the free Square yet but y'all can go use yours and uh let me know what you pair with with for week one so dialing back into More RBs the running backs couple things that stand out to me is like they're they're still pretty high in Kenneth Walker when I feel like the industry is kind of low because he's had some injury riddled Seasons but he's you know he's higher than bejan he's higher than Bree Hall he's higher than Josh Jacobs he's higher than a lot of good players here okay so that stands out to me I think the discrepancy between David Montgomery and jir Gibbs stands out to me a little bit deont set at nine and a half while Gibbs is set at seven and a half and you know the discrepancies between where people are being drafted like Devon H hand seven and a half or he moer is also at seven and a half but H's like a second round pick moster is an eighth round pick David Montgomery is a six seventh round pick Gibbs is a first second round pick so like keep these things in mind and of course there are other factors at play here like Gibbs has the ceiling to catch 70 passes year where David Montgomery is goingon to catch 25 maybe right but like I still think it's worth looking at these lines to give yourself some practical bumpers on on the bowling lane realistically man it you know you look at like Pacho I if you're being objective here they have him at six and a half or I feel like that's a lock he did that last year in super limited games while he wasn't like the full-time back going into this year pretty much will be they add smaj P Ry but if anything he's going to have like a small pass catching role there so I'm not too too worried about it but when you get down to the bottom of the list these are these have been dudes that I've been worried about you know Devin single teries the rre Stevenson's the zamir whites I'm less concerned about James Cook and Alvin Kamar being down there at four and a half rushing touchdown higher lowers because they are so involved in the passing game and they could score a ton of of PPR points through receptions and receiving touchdowns where you know single Terry Stevenson zamir white they can all catch passes but I don't think they're going to have that role in their offense I think their offense overall where like James Cook is in Buffalo they're going to move the ball Camaro is just such a part of that offense that he's not really going to leave the field on third downs and in passing situations single Terry the Giants offense is going to be a mess their offensive line is still bad ra Andre their offensive line is still bad uh Antonio Gibson is there taking work zamir white is a two down back where these all give like pauses for concern and there's a reason they're going where they are let move over to WRs the Wi position and we'll look at it the same way that we did for quarterbacks because they have reception lines up for most of the players now this is not like their rank in terms of fantasy points among every wide receiver these were just the ones that were actually available on the app that I can calculate the fantasy points so when I have like Jameson Williams at 31 that's not the 31st ranked fantasy player overall that's 31st among these 31 wide receivers so just keep that in mind you have Tyreek and cidi lamb at 1 and two un unsurprisingly the first surprise on this list really comes at Mike evans's expense here because he is the 19th player off the board in ADP whereas he has the eighth highest fantasy point total and he's actually above puka which is crazy and I'll let you guys just kind of sit here and really digest this uh this list a little bit because there are a ton of discrepancies we have Mike Evans eighth highest on this list 19th in Underdog 8p you have Devonte Smith 12th highest on this list 20th in Underdog 0p Drake London 15th in fantasy points but 10th in Underdog ADP Nico Collins I mean this is again this is what Vegas does they they kind of put your numbers on a spectrum and they try to give you these upside cases these lower cases they don't get too high or low on on their own Supply you can't just be like I love Drake London so let's set his line at 1400 yards and 10 touchdowns that's out of control vas would lose a fuckload of money doing that because it's unrealistic and unpractical can it happen yes we are not [ __ ] robots this is not black and white it can happen it is in the range of outcomes like when you look at a graph of 100% of the possible outcomes like Drake London finishing with you know 1150 yards and seven touchdowns is probably in the 90th percentile of like what will likely happen this year you know 1,200 yards whatever the opposite 10% on both ends are like okay 950 yards five touchdowns uh 14 150 yards 11 touchdowns something like that like of course they can happen but Vegas kind of puts you into that practical mindset of like what is the 80th 90th percentile range of outcomes for these players Michael Pitman Jr is up at 16th but his Underdog ADP is 25th you actually have a lot of discrepancies here you see a lot of it with the Houston Texans players which is kind of funny so you have niik Collins 19th in fantasy points but 12th in ADP because I think he has a lot of upside whereas Stefon Diggs the next player is 23rd in ADP p and their fantasy points for Vegas is nuts they are within quite literally 0.1 fantasy points of each other these are half PPR fantasy points by the way so the discrepancy there is large Jaylen Wadd has a big discrepancy he is 21st in fantasy points but 13th in 8p Malik neighbors is another one where I think they're being practical here they have him 23rd in fantasy points but ADP is up at 17 and probably going to be like 15 by the time you know the draft season is finally done with us so I think there's just some some to gleam here like if you're in a breaker between you know Mike Evans and and [ __ ] Jaylen wad like maybe you look at the Fantasy Point totals here per Vegas and say like all right maybe the smarter pick here is a guy like Mike Evans so I think all these things are useful all these data points are helpful to just keep you [ __ ] realistic and we'll move to the last of TEs the positions and we have the tight ends I mean there's there's not there's not much uh to gleam here this was pretty much what I've been saying all summer was that we have a big five tight end in terms of tiers you have Kelsey at one leor at two Mark Andrew and Trey McBride are tied at three and four and then Don con Kate is right behind them at five and then we have our first big jump off point where six and seven David and joku is actually tied with George KD but David and joku is the 10th tight end off the board in Underdog drafts while George KD is the sixth so he is tied for six he is six ADP Kyle pitch is behind them Kyle pitch is tied with Jake Ferguson despite Jake Ferguson being drafted two spots later so David joku was kind of like the first real big surprise here they also have Evan Ingram down multiple spots underneath Underdog ADP and that's kind of a sentiment that I've been saying so I was kind of happy to see this come to fruition but again this is half PPR so obviously Ingram is a dude coming off of a massive reception season should be valued higher in full PPR where a guy like Jake Ferguson might only catch you know 60 passes Evan Ingram can catch 85 90 passes and he should be valued accordingly his touchdown total might be a little bit lower but in half PPR he takes a little bit of a dip but I still think it's useful to see that like Jake Ferguson is clearly in the same tier with Evan Ingram and they're almost saying that he's above him Jake Ferguson I think I have I don't remember if I have Jake Ferguson above Kyle pittz in my rankings right now which again can be gotten in our draft guide the cheapest way to get it signing up on Underdog everything comes back to Underdog go get the Travis Kelce line go get the draft guide which has all my draft rankings in it through Underdog promo code bdge when you deposit $10 or more on there Jake Ferguson Ingram Kyle pittz pretty much all in the same tier together George KD and David and joku only one Fantasy Point higher than Pitts and Ferguson so they're not much higher either something to take into effect uh Brock Bowers is where he should be goddard's where he should be fire is where he should be Don Charles should be the only other I guess kind of stand out and again this might just be lack of having all the players on there in this tier but chiggy was actually kind of Highly ranked here which was surprising so he was the 16th highest in terms of Fantasy Point totals but he's kind of been left for dead in terms of drafting uh he's 22nd off the board in tight end ADP which which I kind of agree with I I don't really know what to expect from chicky this year they bring in Calvin Ridley they have dehop obviously they bring in Tyler Boyd Tony Pard like they have a lot of pass catching weapons and chig just hasn't really shown the uh upside of being a touchdown scorer or a high volume player so I lean more towards the ADP favorite here but again maybe this is saying that like there's a higher chance of breakout for chiggy than we are giving credit to all right so I hope this video was helpful I hope this was kind of fun and a little bit of a departure from the normal analysis that we do where I'm just yapping about players I like and don't like and we take it from The Source right from the water fountain straight to our mouth holes all right so if I leave you with anything it's use the lines on Underdog use the lines in Vegas that push you in the right direction if you are overshooting on a specific player you're overly high or you're overly low come back to reality okay so go check out Underdog fantasy and use our code bdge if your first time depositing again you'll get the draft guide you'll get Travis Kel's free Square you'll get a deposit match and you can follow all of my bets and you can track all of your bets on picket all right pick it.com the picket app absolutely free to use via the mobile app and you could follow me if you're just using the link down below I'm out of here I will see y'all tomorrow [Music] oh