Stock Market Holiday Party Over? [S&P500 Technical Analysis GOLD SILVER]

Intro what's up everybody tom here with another video today we'll be talking about the latest stock market news along with our technical analysis thoughts on the s p 500 nasdaq volatility index apple tesla and the us dollar we'll also be talking about gold and silver in this video says a lot to cover so yesterday we saw the iphone 12 release that bought by the rumor sell the fact again in apple stock with apple stock declining over the day we also saw the trend line getting reached and respected off the multi-year weekly trend line so we'll be talking about that on the s p 500 there's a lot to unpack here stay tuned Market Commentary so as we like to do on this channel let's have a look at what happened over the last 24 hours well we just said apple declined into the actual news event we'll be talking about why that happened and what it means for the stock moving forward disney had a really great day which is good because of course i'm a bit of a fan of that stock at the prices has been recently and then we've got things like banks doing relatively poorly and there's a few reasons for that but that doesn't mean the banks can be cut off yet from potential value investing once they break key resistances in the future just a quick reminder if you haven't already subscribed consider doing so we had a great stream last night we obviously got well over 500 members coming in and it was awesome to see the community so excited about the live streams and the market into what happened yesterday at the close so it was a bit of a bumpy ride for the nasdaq it was up it was down it was all around it ended up basically flat even with that decline in apple the s p 500 and dow however were down they were down point six two percent and point five five and when we look at the sector analysis it becomes pretty clear why financials down pretty heavily real estate down energy down we have industrials and of course also the material sectors all doing fairly poorly while the technology sector wasn't down that much for the day i think that this really just shows us a standard kind of rotation out there was nothing really too much notable here other than the banks and overall we're still moving very very high off that inverse head and shoulders on the s p 500 and possibly a little bit too fast and if you stick around we'll be going through why we think it could be a little bit too fast and we might be seeing a little bit of a corrective pullback during this move Put Call Ratios s p 500 put call ratios what happened well they hit almost the historical lows notice when it gets to this point six level we've usually seen a spike up input call ratios and this has often been the time where we do see corrective moves in the market the lower amount of puts in the market generally means of course there's more calls out there and wall street takes advantage of that bullish sentiment over the bearish sentiment they always like to steal off somebody when we look at the cbo market statistics yesterday what do we see guys 2.04 this is up from a 1.2 rating the day before so big increase in put opens yesterday from everyone in the market and that makes it so that it's very difficult for the market to short off it's when people less expect something to occur that it happens Apple Event if we take a look at the apple event why did apple sell off well firstly it went up six percent on monday plus it also was running into the event but when you're announcing an event especially this one where literally apple's leaks were rife in terms of almost 97 of everything that was said in the leaks ended up being correct we don't have a mass amount of euphoria coming off the event we don't necessarily see anything new we have the homepod mini we have the new iphone 12 and all of its different skus but we don't have any other products we don't have the air tags that we're meant to be coming out we don't have any more information about those other sectors and the thing is for apple is while they're going to sell a lot of this phone there's going to be demand for it it needs to do a lot it obviously needs to beat market expectations so it was a classic case of hype in and then retailers just sold it lost commitment and it went and touched a very nice support and we talked about this during the live stream so let's now talk about the vix VIX what happened in the volatility index yesterday well it held its 25 level the market still relatively high didn't fall off that much yet the vix has started boosting off this 25 support remember we have strong resistance at 30 and strong support at 25. we're currently trading at a 26.2 handle 26.1 on the vix and this is leading up for potentially more spikes of fear in the market and therefore the selling corrective event we were just talking about the market moved up very quickly but the vix did not get through that 25 and that has me thinking instantaneously something's a little bit wrong about the price action we saw thursday friday into of course the monday trade it was very bullish very aggressive and is due for a smaller correction phase if we paint the picture with the DXY dollar index i guess the dollar is really agreeing with that kind of assumption as well very strong bullish dollar we had a bit of a laugh about this one in the chat last night obviously goldman sachs just came out with an article right down here saying sell dollar and then of course the dollar goes up it's almost like always we can go the opposite of what they're saying so the 9340 wasn't even held now this is just a classic case of while this is still an incredibly good technical level double supports and resistance it shows that when you've got aggressive market moving you don't just necessarily sell this level blindly what you want to do is you want to go into the smaller time frames and wait for the lightning bolt down this is the game changer for many technical traders out there using a smaller time frame to confirm a resistance or support zone at key levels so we actually saw the dollar index go even further up and if we look at the daily it just tapped the 20 exponential moving average this has always been a very important moving average from a support resistance side we see it was initially support it's probably going to be initially resistance here but the dollar index remains trapped between these zones and i was surprised it got above the 9340 so easily but it shows that people are a little bit concerned possibly there's a bit of safe haven aspect here and people are buying into most likely things like bonds and they're also buying into of course dollar and buying into other safe havens when we look at the us Silver dollar's impacts on silver and gold they were pretty severe silver came back down to our box price of around 24 30. it's now trading at 24.20 so right around where we expect buying pressure to come back in it's another case of we need to see that smaller time frame change of trend to the upside and then we're expecting silver to of course going to 26. if the us dollar continues to strengthen though there could be some further downside risk here for silver and it's certainly not out of the park yet it's a zone to watch a zone to have alerts for and of course if you do see that change of trend it could be quite bullish for silver but for now it's sitting around the support zone and we need to see bullish intent if we take Gold a look at gold gold was a little bit scary so it went past the 1920. we've been talking about this 1920 close above for a little while that was fairly bullish for gold and you know it always would be we had strong amounts of wick closes around here if we go down to the four hour you'll notice that we had a strong amount of body closes all around this 1920 we closed above that zone and then instantly now i've found weakness i think the only thing you can really do with gold right now is draw this little trend line here and say well if we can't hold it right now it's probably going to go further short and of course if it gets through this previous low around 1874 it's going to go back down to the 1850 and past 1850 well that's a whole different story we'll cover in another day if you're a bull on gold well we need it back above this 1930 area we need to see it close above here and then hopefully continue on but for now gold is very very tough i would have hoped that when it got through that 1920 and we knew 1920 was going to be resistance initially that it would have continued bullying but the power of the us dollar move is just too much here for gold we're back on the trend line we needed to support this level right here right now apple event what happens well Apple we just talked about the apple iphone and what happened there but what about the support that was reached we mentioned this in the live channel last night the 119 120 zone acted as perfect support we had a 20 exponential moving average underneath it previous resistance over here on the left hand side and a very very nice kind of little pickup there on the intraday trade i don't blame people that picked up this zone it certainly was a decent little sell-off basically all of the initial hype really got taken out of the market and then it came back down and touched this zone could there be further shorting for apple certainly there could be it could go back to the 116 where it'll hit a 50 and a 200 exponential moving average there'll be a lot of market structure around this zone as well so if it gets back down there i'd see further buying pressure and overall i think that there is bullish sentiment here on apple and it does deserve to be relatively high if it gets down to the 116 though i think there's going to be buying pressure there from the bulls taking a quick look at Tesla tesla tesla has been slow uncharacteristically slow this stock has not had the trade and the daily ranges that it has had recently and this is because it's dying down in terms of the height but there are news events coming up and remember tesla trades into news events and when it breaks out it often trades in a buy the rumor sell the fact similar to apple yeah we have a four five five resistance here some people call this an ascending triangle i'll call it that loosely but this resistance of four five five if tesla breaks out and closes above this zone what do we know about tesla it's super bullish it's super aggressive and when it breaks it doesn't just come back to the conservative it generally has build very strongly off that level now if you're taking traditional ranges you take something like this but for me 520 seems like the profit target if it gets through why would that be well that's just where previously kind of tapped out it's a nice round number level and i don't think 500 is going to stop it it doesn't seem like 500 stopped it that much last time so why would it again so the buy side here for tesla is interesting at the 455. but also the 410 double support here if it breaks and closes below that it would also be putting pressure on this little trend line through the bodies at that point what would we be seeing bearish intentions in the tesla stock and i think that the gap range here if it got through that 410 enclosed below would be back to the 360s where it previously found support so there could be a lot of selling pressure as well if it does not and it fails to get through the resistance over the next couple of weeks they could be selling pressure under the 410 would really trigger back into the 360 here for this stock like any good technical analyst the way that you need to trade it is understanding the stock itself tesla crazy momentum stock when things are happening it moves to the next zone or the next gapping area that's the way we trade it and that's the way we need to understand it so you don't want to buy any just general price you generally want to buy the key psychological points that work into the momentum of the stock and the move overall so guys let's take a look now at NASDAQ the us 100 and of course us 500 the s p so the nasdaq here relatively bullish in fact extremely bullish off that key close area we discussed now a few things i wanted to note about this go to the weekly here and we'll see a very interesting candle so a lot of people think this is an incredibly bearish candle and it is it's what's called a shooting star some people call it a pin bar but what happened after that similar to what happened over here we did this in the weekly analysis when it closed above this zone it became an incredibly bullish event this is the trap and this is often what causes a slingshot there's so many people selling with stop losses above here and they often move their stop losses up that the market pulls off this it's effectively switch sentiment and that's why i believe we got such a massive slingshot we got it because there was so much trapping of shorters in the retail crowd and just in general when this market closed above this week it all becomes on especially with such a key resistance break when we go down to things like a four hour where to next for the nasdaq well i'm thinking fibonacci and that's usually what i do when we don't have clear levels of support or resistance obviously we have that 11600 it'd be great to see it come back down there and test it where resistance became support but we may not see that what we may see is that the market creates a little miniature head and shoulders on the smaller time frame and then shorts off back into the 38 to 50 area remember we want to target this 38 to 50 area when it comes to fibonacci so that's my thought process there for the nasdaq obviously we break a new high we close above that we're going to go and test resistance highs at 12 4. that should become resistance and i would expect selling pressure off that again i'd be drawing the fib then to the 12 4 area and again looking for a 38 to 50 fib pullback but for now we're stuck in the range of of course looking for fib pullbacks back to 20 exponentials and back to some kind of normality to show us that this trend is not hyper euphoric similar to last time and won't have a crazy corrective crash we want to just see a decline now into key fibonacci levels so let's talk about this really long term trend line so this trend line has been brought up i'm sure you've all seen it by now i know a lot of people are using it and that's very valid and fair this is a multi-year trend line some people draw it all the way through to the bottom i'm just going to draw it through these peaks here and that's the way i'm just going to create it's the same thing anyway so we have multiple resistances it was the catalyst for the sell-off last time this is the weekly spx remember spx is the key here the real market not the futures market so we hit that level and we sold off from that zone so that became the strong resistance zone we also have found that that while held it in a body phase last time around so it's very interesting to see the spx declining off that area when we look at the spx and the move that it's recently had and what we've seen yesterday we can see very very far away from the 20 exponential moving average on the daily if we go to the four hour we've obviously had a decline but we haven't yet hit the 3500 zone and that's the area that we do expect at least the market to pull back to because that's 3 500 and a 20 exponential moving average on the 4 hour a normal pullback will at least see that level reached we take a fib again of the entire move and we think about what could be happening from that perspective usually of an entire move again we usually see it back to the 38 to 50 fib so that would be in between these zones i'll let you draw it on your charts as well and that's what we're looking for here on the s p if it makes a new high back to 35 80 if not 3600 and then of course the exact same thing again we'll be drawing out the fibonacci looking for the retracement of the 38 250 fib so it's stuck in the middle of nowhere land we are again in the inverse head and shoulders we still haven't completed we still haven't we've seen good movement but maybe a little bit too euphoric and it's time to see what the market brings for us next so if you've enjoyed this video today please remember to of course subscribe hit that alert button because the streams have been so amazing we'll be doing monday live streams every single time unless there's a public holiday in the us and then it'll be tuesday so come join us on the opening bells of course subscribe to the community and we'll see you in another video bye for now