Nvidia earnings dump... Broad market doomed?!

Intro what a letdown Nvidia earnings beat the expectations but not by enough to make investors happy and the result well a nice little 3% gap down is forming that we should prepare for and of course that'll act as downside pressure for the broad Market as well so welcome to the trade Brigade midweek show where we'll look through all of the data points including Nvidia earnings and build a game plan my name is Matt and if you're new here hit the Thumbs Up Button And subscribe for additional resources check out the links listed Down Below in the description and stay tuned until the end of today's show I've got two additional trade ideas to share with you that you won't want to miss with that said let's jump right into the charts so we'll kick things off with a closer look at the Spy daily time frame chart what do we see here from a trend perspective well over the last seven trading days we've been S&P 500 (SPY) stuck in a trading range a balance some may call it and of course we know this is happening in the context of having made a higher high so any pullbacks on the daily chart are really still in service of searching for a higher low to continue the new uptrend that we've formed from point A up to point B up here with nvidia's news after hours the current bid ask spread is somewhere around 55510 55520 19 it's trading low 555s so the forecasted gap down as of right now this is 6:00 on Wednesday subject to change by 9:30 tomorrow morning but it's right near the today's low and what that indicates to me is if we open below the bottom of the multi-day range which is really 557 then a higher low pullback can unfold and that's fine right if we open in here we'll look for bearish rejections of 557 and then possible breakdowns through this pivot High to test the Gap from underneath us when we test the top of the Gap at 549 if we test the top of the Gap I would reinforce the idea that the daily 50 SMA is going to be meeting us there for Confluence and super support if we catch buyers off of that level that'd be a great spot for a daily higher low Heck if we go a little bit further and close the gap from remember this Thursday session back here that would also be a great spot for a daily higher low remember that there's really room from point A to point B for a higher low anywhere over what I would consider the Line in the Sand here at 537 so bring on the pullback bring on the daily higher low that's okay if the daily chart opens and stays below tomorrow in into the end of the week 557 now what I want to talk about quickly though is the candle structure prior to Nvidia earnings right if I just clear this up we've talked about Trend obviously upside continuation takes care of itself we're looking at all-time highs and blue sky territories after that but let's focus on today's daily bar outside of the context of Nvidia earnings what is this it's a hammer it's got a longer lower Wick it looks underneath the lows of the balance range at 557 and then let's ask ourselves the question were sellers able to close that bar under 557 in the regular trading hour session the answer is absolutely not so if we just take this directly down to an hourly time frame chart what this would have actually started to suggest is a look below and fail on the balance range right here's the balance look below and fail number one look below and fail number two is a possibility so something that I want to use as sort of an if then statement is if we are opening on a move underneath 557 then we are looking for 557 rejections to Target 553 for something like Thursday's session and then possibly Friday if the Bears do retain control and it's supported by bearish internals then great we'll look for the continued daily pullback into the top of the Gap 549 and possibly 54485 those are the downside levels that I would really be preparing for if we open tomorrow and stay tomorrow underneath 557 now this whole thing the whole beish pullback idea evaporates if the markets do two things number one if we open over 557 Right Back in Balance right back in limbo I really wouldn't look at this as an overly aggressive opportunity to get short the market Market as a matter of fact I would probably be more bullish on the fact that Nvidia earnings were not enough to send it lower it was a look below and fail and my target would be at least the top end of the range but the better trade outcome is likely going to be the clearance of this balance range on a break and higher low Brigade bolt over 56250 so the Market's trading in a very well-defined range at this point and I really do believe that your Thursday session is going to be determined by which side of 557 we're trading on if we open below and reject downside targets we've just talked about if we open below and Brigade bolt into the range as soon as we set this higher low on something like a 15-minute time frame chart maybe even a 5 minute time frame chart if I want to get a bit more precise I would be willing to entertain Longs off of 557 for risk reward that starts to look like this to complete the look below and fail trade right when you look below and fail there's your higher low the target's always the opposing end of the balance which in this case is 560 250 the top end we just describing if you open in range I would be looking for buy side setups first off of 557 because of the failure here and because the implication would be that the market made this move in the overnight it did not stick and by the time we opened up we're back inside of range over 557 so first thought is to see if we can find support here and then rotate back up to the top end of the range same concept so that's really my top focus into Thursday morning's open if we bring out a couple of let's go ahead and bring out some fibs of course this will be a rinse and repeat since we really didn't make much of a new high uh but the 38.2 50% FIB is in line with the sort of bottom end at 557 that checks out to me if we bring out the anchored vew apps intraday you'll also notice I mean we're supporting the anchored vew app here if we get back over 557 you're in the middle of the cluster and possibly rotating to the top end gets you above all three from there I think it's just a patience game until we get some sort of Brigade bolt for the all-time high over 56250 so in terms of adding Confluence at the levels I do like what the Fibonacci we just saw and anchored View apps are suggesting I wouldn't throw in the towel yet on the Longs side and say oh my goodness this Market has to go to hell in a handbasket not the case based on the analysis of what we have in front of us here let's jump on over to the market internals for the ncy side of things if you're not familiar with this screen check out the video tutorial in the top right hand uh corner so today's session opened in range in value we knew that based on the pre-market prep and of course there was a bit of an aggressive selloff happened today and let's see what actually took place at the exchange level were the volume outflows aggressive no we did not get underneath 300 million this to me supports the idea that this is still a pullback in the context of an overall uptrend sure we broke from balance but it's not like there's been this huge shift in sentiment at the exchange level otherwise this would have been underneath three uh negative 300 million sort of an equal opposite to what we had on Friday of last week right if we look at the advanced decline line was it in or near Trend lower Zone at any point today the answer is no I mean yes it's negative yes it did reject the zero line so I'm not trying to mask that we had a bearish breakdown today but I'm talking about the context of the overall move it's more of a pullback in an uptrend as we've sort of stated if you look at the index score it was very negative intraday but this is an intraday indicator this should not tell you or you should not read into the index score for those of you who have purchased it and are maybe interested in like how it works exactly that's an intraday indicator that is not something that you use on a day-to-day basis it can support the fact that yeah it made sense the market was down today if it was Divergent that would be a different story but it's not really something we carry forward in the narrative right this measures from the open and it resets the next day if we're looking at the cumulative build out of the tick I mean yes it was red and again making that same acknowledgement it was red it was red but was it 5,000 absolutely not not even close the worst read we had was negative 2750 that's really not indicative of exchange level oh my goodness dump everything markets are going to hell in a hand basket so when I look at the internals when I look at the price action that actually unfolded this initial look below and fail outside of what's happening with Nvidia and you know it looks like we're already up 50 cents off of the 555 we were talking about a minute ago this to me is is still just like mild consolidation bullish consolidation near these highs we have not lost any levels yet to the point where I would say oh my goodness buckle up there's a big Trend reversal incoming on The Daily time frame chart I would start to express some concern just to play Devil's Advocate I would express some concern if there was like a big gap fill down here and then we set some sort of lower high in the future underneath 557 underneath this balance because now we're starting to think okay what's the opportunity for a daily lower high the weekly really just has an equal high right we know that the nasdaq's a little bit weaker the tech sector is a bit weaker right so that would be a concession to the downside but that's happening in the future first thought process at these levels to the downside 553 549 54485 is where do the buyers step up and where can we get involved for a daily high or low pullback to reverse back in the upward Direction so that's my take here out of the S&P uh if you're really intent on trying to trade this short I'll come in here with the red cray and just show you real quick I would want to see like a breakdown here and something that offers a lower high underneath 553 to trade to the top of the Gap when we get here once again it is a reassessment do we find a double bottom do we find an inverted Head and Shoulders or do we close the gap then it's a rinse and repeat double bottom inverted Head and Shoulders Hammer Candle on the hourly charts 15-minute signs of reversal right anything around these levels really becomes interesting and I think you know we've beat this dead horse enough but really just a balance range if we're back over 557 with the opportunity to rotate to the top citing the look below and fail formation right let's move on over to the market profile and let's just be thorough here in the investigation so if you're not familiar with this dashboard check out the video tutorial in the top rightand Corner got to make a couple of concessions for the Bears uh first and foremost we made note on Tuesday headed into Wednesday today that value was actually higher on the Tuesday session here well that didn't really hold up for much of a bullish indication off of this Wednesday open to break out and retrace some of this thin structure that obviously was not the case and value did shift lower on the bar toar count for today's session the point of control is also notably underneath uh or not not really underneath I take that back it's definitely underneath the prior day session but it's not underneath Friday's low and if you recall from the Saturday update video we were really focused on Friday's low which is also Confluence with the Tuesday low of that previous week right so this to me represents the bottom end of the balance range and the point of control was sort of right at the bottom end of the balance range if not slightly above if you're looking at the distribution of volume you know it's sort of bulked up at the bottom end of the range it's not firmly down underneath suggesting something like a b-shaped profile long liquidation and oh my goodness buckle up the markets are about to get nasty not really the case so the look below and fail makes the most sense to me if we can sort of stay over or get back above I should say in the es Futures we've been tracking something like 5610 right if we can get over 5610 that would look pretty good for an opportunity to get some Thin structure retracement you do have some single prints out of the market profile between 5625 and 5630 that would act as a first Target and then the top end of the range which as we know is 5660 on the es Futures uh that's your full completion of the look below and fail right so there's the es levels combined with the S&P levels let's jump back on over to the platform here and take look at the QQQ NASDAQ which of course is NASDAQ 100 (QQQ) slightly Divergent and more bearish right one of the things that we've been noting is this big opportunity for a weekly lower high we did not close this Gap the trend count is still up though and I think we want to talk about this for a moment if we're thinking about the move from point A to point B up here this is still a strong uptrend and of course we can't ignore the fact that we also have a higher high in the trend count So currently yes the pullback is a little bit more aggressive you're seeing a close underneath the multi-day range underneath the daily 50 SMA but is it possible that you're still just searching for a higher low I think the answer is yes and recall that this Gap close is actually the top end of this balance from back here I would like to see some sort of support either right here off of these lows or even on the Gap fi reversal at 46525 if we go lower than that the Line in the Sand on The Daily time frame chart is closer within Striking Distance on the NASDAQ that's $ 45950 if the pullback continues this would be my Line in the Sand here need to stay above that otherwise why are we underneath this previous B balance I thought the progress made here would have been strong enough to kick you back off towards the alltime highs and not revisit or get below even worse right which is why this is the Line in the Sand you don't want to be below it right 45950 is that number in the post Market we're currently trading at 46650 by 60 give or take so that puts us right around 46650 a little bit of a gap down minor minor gap down underneath today's low inside of this Gap range so let's bring it on down to the hourly time frame chart all set here right this looks like a pretty actually typical bull flag into a possible area of support Gap fi reversal if we can hold this and start to move back in the upward Direction This is looking like a pretty solid long over 475 back up to the equal high if not follow through to close the gap there so Bulls want to see this Bears of course want to see it you know slowly chugging along to the downside and more importantly a loss of that 45950 let's uh get on down to that hourly we can see a couple of things here first and foremost on the Spy daily slh hourly it was more of a very clear balance range you did not have a series of lower highs and lower lows on the NASDAQ that's clearly not the case you already have a very well-defined hourly downtrend with multiple lower highs and lower lows this is a downtrend so in order to reverse this and get some sort of bullish play out of the NASDAQ a couple of things I would want to see if we're anticipating an open here around 460 650 that's instantly going to provide a lower low so we're not out of the woods on the hourly chart all right so then what's the next step if you open here you need to see a Brigade bolt higher low over the previous day's low which is right here in the top of the Gap ultimately at 46835 if we can pull that off you start to suggest Loosely in inverted head and shoulders and that would be the beginning stages of an hourly Trend reversal to then take it long if you could spot the break of the neckline that's great you could take it long into the retest level right here at 475 but better than that as we just described on The Daily would be a higher low over that 475 for a pinch back up to the top of the range and possibly looking for follow through at the F in the future I should say of course the Bears are probably like dude you're insane lower low that means you should be looking for a lower high here absolutely that is a threat that is an issue out of the NASDAQ chart when and if we approach 475 that is where your sellers if they're here are going to be waiting in limbo looking to short a lower high opportunity to continue the hourly Trend in the downward Direction so a little bit of No Man's Land here in between I would argue this kind of let's just go with the ultimate Gap close 46525 looking for that daily we'll go with a DHL shipment here daily higher low versus 1H hour lower high possible threat off of 475 so in this Zone you got to exercise some caution I would prefer to trade Longs that look like this re-evaluate here stick with the Longs if we can Brigade bolt back into the range if you're noting that we get some sort of double top I mean there's nothing wrong with trying a short there if you could try to pull off risk reward that then look like this back in the downward Direction be my guest uh you know it really I think Nvidia intraday tomorrow is going to have a lot to do with that and we'll take a look at that chart in just a couple of moments but those are your major inflection points and where the trends will change and where I think that there executable setups really 475 retests and down here Gap fill reversal over 46525 some sort of open on a lower low something that does this there's the inverted Head and Shoulders we were just describing trades into this in the first place re-evaluate at that level pretty clear about the expectations here if you wanted to use some trend lines if you wanted to draw in a trend Channel you can do that there's nothing wrong with this you guys know I prefer horizontal levels but from bottom of the trend channel to the top of the trend Channel Where's that resistance same spot so no not a shocker there let's bring out the anchored vew apps inaday you are getting a cluster of those things barreling down on 475 probably supporting more of the bearish thesis it's also the daily 50 SMA mixed in there and we'll also take out the Fibonacci because of course this is a 100% retracement from the Thursday stay Gap up low but just to go through the exercise are we underneath the 61.8 the answer is yes and that is 475 so if I'm looking at supporting evidence like 50 SMA like anchored vew apps like fibs yeah this is a pretty big threat there at 475 that can possibly keep the market bearish uh of course what we didn't talk about and describe is if we open on this gap down fail to produce a higher low back inside of the previous day's range and fade underneath 46525 this is a short all day long to get back into that Daily Line in the Sand for higher low at$ 45950 that we were just referencing right and this would be a major major major test for the QQQ NASDAQ let's jump on into our NASDAQ internals and we'll see if the selling pressure was Stronger here it is it is so I think that this really goes back to what we were describing in the Saturday update as well where if you're going to try to Long the market the S&P is where you want to be if you're going to try to short the market the nasdaq's where you want to be notice that the volume outflows were substantial on today's session unlike the S&P 500 so shorts make more sense here you were in Trend lower Zone on today's session and you also opened near it on the Tuesday session the cumulative build out of the NASDAQ much much deeper and we actually got a nearly negative 8,000 into the close so yeah shorts do make much more sense out of the NASDAQ versus your S&P 500 if you can spot sort of this rejection in here and the breakdown to get to your daily Line in the Sand once again that's 45950 or if it rallies first fine let it rally not don't try to long it if you're a believer in the short based on the evidence we're walking through so far and look for the short here right let that risk reward play out let it play out as follows back down to the low and possibly balloon ballooning excuse me Runners into that Daily Line in the Sand that's your NASDAQ let's take a look to uh finish it off at the NQ Futures though just to make sure we're not missing any glaringly obvious indications no I mean through this entire time value has been progressing lower you had it here you had it here here is of course Monday Tuesday was slightly higher Wednesday definitely lower and point of control is clean underneath the previous day's low it's underneath the Friday lows right the two equal lows from back here so much more bearish progress out of the NASDAQ and I think that that 475 level it's going to be spot-on right there's really no issue with that it boils down to this right here 19550 we could call it I think we we've been using 196 in the pre-market shows right and that really represents more of your Friday low if you're underneath that Zone on the NQ Futures I wouldn't I wouldn't really think about any upside interaction if you notice that the Market's getting strong and this is just purely a market profile play right here if you notice the market is strengthening if you notice wow you know Market's throwing all caution to the wind doesn't care about Invidia earnings it's just a rocket ship back to the upside if we're trading around here I would totally be focused on Tuesday's high as a poor high in the NQ Futures that's in need of some repair there at 197 flat right at 197 psychological number as well if you could take that out it would be I would think a thin structure retracement at minimum to 198 about 100 points of range to possibly thinking about based on that market profile Nuance right around over here let's jump back onto the platform and we will finish up the broad Market with none other than small caps back to a daily time frame time frame wrong emphasis iwm daily what do we see a little bit of a pullback but again key question boils back down to trend on The Daily at least is this an overly Russell 2000 (IWM) threatening pullback the answer to me is no the most impressive part that we talked about on the Saturday update video right was the fact that there was a recapture in side of this balance range on that Friday move so we've given back some of it most of it but not to a degree where I would say we're losing the key area that needs to hold and we all know that this is 215 prior support you know it's where the sell-off stopped rejection rejection rejection rejection as long as we're over 2115 I would tend to think that small caps have a nice breakout a pullback in the context of a new uptrend right you had highs highs new highs pulling back for a possible higher low to hold 215 and it's a swing right back up hopefully to the top end of the range over all closer to 225 flat so the daily chart does not seem to be a threat here out of iwm and of course with less exposure to Invidia in the first place you're not really seeing an after hours move that is overly detrimental let's take a look at the hourly time frame and see what else we can learn you know again balanced in here mild pull like the other thing to point out is that this is a thin structure breakout right which in theory means that there's very little volume commitment at Price a thin structure should be retraced fairly rapidly did we have a rapid breakdown today I would argue no it was a very slow and controlled pullback it was not a panicked pullback it was not a liquidation break everybody selling and hitting the panic button no mild pullback as long as we can support over 215 in the grand scheme of things it's bullish pressure or sustained neutral pressure for the S&P um and any reversals would be seen as a Tailwind to support bullish moves in the S&P and if we break under 215 more concerns would step in I would probably be okay bearish here and definitely bearish on a loss of 213 to trigger some sort of previous double top right obviously it's not a double top anymore but you get the idea maybe it builds out as some sort of Head and Shoulders very speculative as of right now but I think it just lends itself to talking about 215 if we're above it's not really much of a threat uh currently I would say into the end of the week if we get an open in range here at 27 what is it 217 flat and we get a break to move over 219 that would be a pretty decent uh you know helping factor to at least keep the S&P neutral if not try to act as that tailwind and at that point you're just dealing with the inverted head and shoulders right so just really think in terms of levels and where the trend will change the hourly trend is down with lower highs lower lows right it's a pullback we know that the daily can find a higher low over 215 if we reverse the hourly Trend via some sort of higher low and a breakout to a higher high that 219 recapture puts the pressure to the upside on the S&P let's uh we could take a look just to be congruent at the intraday anchored View apps you're still above the majority cluster in here at 2115 which makes sense based on the structure as well and this makes sense also for a possible breakout being more bullish over 219 if we bring out the Fibonacci from the Thursday Gap up from way in the past now up to here you know flirting with the 38.2 definitely not suggesting anything underneath the 61.8 and lo and behold it is that 215 level anyhow let's jump on into the Russell Market internals specific to the index itself and what do we have here no strong volume outflows not in Trend lower Zone today and the accumulative build is you know we got to give some respect there it's down around 2300 typically a strong read for the tick out of the Russell at least is going to be something like 3500 4,000 on the Russell side of things so maybe a little bit of uh continued pullback wouldn't be unreasonable maybe we don't want to jump the gun on the reversal but nothing here that's overly detrimental suggesting that 215 is just going to get absolutely obliterated on any sort of continuation let's uh go to the Russell Futures on the market profile and we'll finish the job on the broad Market move into our ctors and we'll take it from there value continues to progress lower unlike the es and the NQ value on Tuesday was completely Breakaway to the downside which is fine but again look back to your left this thin structure over here didn't really see acceleration notice that the value uh you know it's not technically let me do something like this so we can extend it it's not completely overlapping in in in a clean way where I would say it's balanced but it's definitely not Breakaway to the downside where value was like here inside of the thin structure from that breakout last Friday so once again the pullback seems respectful so far I'm not overly concerned with the performance of small caps acting as an additional headwind uh to the S&P on top of what we're already getting out of Nvidia earnings let's bring it on down to the broad Market sectors so the S&P sectors S&P Sectors here weekly performance is always up first what do we see financials are leading the pack up 74 basis points followed by Consumer Staples then Healthcare financials look good and they're a heavier weight risk on style sector but Staples and and Healthcare much more D for defensive now does that make sense is that okay as the Market's balancing in this range I think the answer is yes I would be much more concerned about the sector posture if that was the case and the market was trying or not trying but was making new highs because we don't have an attempt at new highs yet and it's not being led by the wrong sectors fine posture is not really the end of the world semiconductors are at the bottom end of the barrel then we have the tech sector and consumer discretionary again makes sense considering the balance that we're stuck in let's check in on the structural charts Financial Up Up and Away plenty of room for a higher low pullback over the previous all-time high from here at 44 there's really no additional commentary the chart is bullish it can afford a pullback it's not the end of the world xlp Consumer Staples new highs absolutely just hanging out up here bullish consolidation is technically upward pressure for the broad Market just remember it's D for defensive if this continues to push to new highs and it pushes the S&P to new highs I would start to flag that as an issue I would not be confident in an S&P bringing in new highs if it's based on xlp XLV Healthcare new highs so you see this you see the theme here it's very difficult to call for an overly aggressive bearish move in the broad Market when everything's hanging out near highs with opportunities for higher low pullbacks especially noting XLV is still your third heaviest weight sector by market cap if this was like inside the range and threatening a move lower whoa red flag but just currently not the case let's move along to the bottom end of the barrel with this jump over here so the semiconductors we've got to be honest right this chart does not look good and it looks more similar to the QQQ NASDAQ with this offering of something like a weekly lower high but the structure here out of the SMH is actually a bit more concerning because of the neckline right it's clearly rejecting a technical area uh you could still argue that there's an opportunity for an inverted Head and Shoulders or something like this on the daily and that's fine but to be more confident in this chart for like the next move out of semiconductors to remain bullish you've got to get clearance up and over 25570 and Nvidia earnings are definitely not helping getting us a little bit lower here closer to 23265 232 65 Loosely just generally in this area small gap down for tomorrow morning's open I would say it's Do or Die to hold on to 22850 if we can if there's an opening drive lower on the Gap and go I would look for 22850 to support if it does you know still trying to maintain that optimistic and bullish stance in the S&P if there's nothing at 22850 I would just sort of Let It Go and I would say time to look for shorts in the QQQ NASDAQ so using the semiconductors as a big proxy for the broad Market as a big gauge for the broad Market is going to be helpful into the end of the week week uh and again that level that key key Line in the Sand has to be 22850 anything that gets back into this range here really more neutral and I would dial back the short expectations xlk what do we see out of the tech sector uh you know similar to the QQQ same commentary as the XL excuse me SMH lower high what I think is different about this obviously is just the fact that we're still not anymore based on the Nvidia earnings but the fact that today's regular trading hours pullback was pretty respectful over the top end of this balance the current after hours trade price is pretty spread 214 90x 21567 so let's just say that it's somewhere somewhere around this range on the forecasted open I would prefer that there's an opening drive and a recapture of 218 once again that's the bull take here the bare take is Gap fill reversal Gap fill reversal keeps you bearish and you're probably rotating at least into 212 anything beyond that gets really dangerous for your S&P 500 watching those levels like a hawk again 218 and 212 I would prefer that the gap down gives a you know sort of if it's an extension support 212 12 move back higher intraday that would be bullish if it's a gap down Gap close I would prefer for high and tight consolidation something that looks like this that aligns more so with the daily Trend in the S&P 500 right if I'm thinking back to the S&P I'm not going to fight it if the Market's clearly showing reversal and back down under the opening print I'm not fighting it but what would be helpful to align with the daily Trend being up on the S&P is a gap down that Fades and trying for acceptance around 218 not fading off aggressively let's move along to the xly Y similar commentary not much of a you know just a rinse and repeat I would say that you need to hold your higher low here to indicate some sort of inverted Head and Shoulders things get much more bullish if we can get a break for the next leg up and over 18875 currently uh looks like a mild mild move to open lower near the lows based on Nvidia earnings obviously Nvidia is not in the xly so let's move along energy sector it's done nothing over the last bit it's really more so St it's volatile but it's stable inside of this range I'd be more impressed with energy it decides whether or not it's over or under uh we've got 9480 and in here I would really lean on the 8715 coming from this reversal breakout point back here right so nothing to do out of energy we'll continue to monitor it for the uh you know Global demand for oil how's how are Global econom is doing so not much to comment on currently TLT is pretty stable we want stable rates stable bonds that's fine xlc this looks bullish to me threatening a possible break into blue sky territories plenty of room for a higher low on The Daily over 85 right back in the bull territory so we obviously have concentrated risk in the tech side of things with semiconductors outside of that things look pretty darn good real estate with the anticipation of rates making a new swing High perfect bullish utilities very bond-like just continuing to sort of put in bullish consolidation over the 75 no issues with this posture wise not an issue yet xlb materials top end of the range wall to--all move from bottom to top wouldn't be surprised if it consolidates for a little while a breakout there a new swing high would be instrumental xli indust Industrials hanging out at new alltime highs indecisive dogee on today's session over this prior rejection rejection trying to act as support nothing bearish to say out of a name like the xli let's jump into the ratio grid and see what's going on from this perspective you can see that we've got the xlk try like I would argue that maybe maybe it's a bit of a stretch if we can recover off of this Nvidia earnings move um if we can't then this is just going to be a big time lower high it'll continue to act as a red flag XLF making it excuse me near the highs my apologies near the highs is is a good step but ideally as it's making new all-time highs and the S&P is not this should be through the relative high on the ratio XL Y is a threat for a lower high uh noting that there was not much of a hold here for a inverted head and shoulders right this I mean it's still a possibility but this move to the 50 SMA should have gone through if that was going to be it and this was going to act as a stronger sense of a trend reversal xlp is sort of Sitting In Limbo it's not totally risk off but it's not risk on same thing happening here out of ilities the market sort of like precariously propped up in this um balance range out of the S&P 500 and this gap down open tomorrow morning under or over 557 I believe is just going to be the most obvious tell for what we should be thinking about how we should be acting and uh we already walked through those sort of situations but the ratio grid here is not giving us much insight into risk on versus off should you be overly bullish should you be overly bearish if we look at some specialized ratios you know a nice recovery here it's possible that you set some sort of higher low out of uh shy xlk that would be a good first step xlu xlk not looking great over in this one uh just noting that it never really recaptured a key level here remembering that this came from Head and Shoulders neckline uh this still has the opportunity but you would want to see it break out right obviously this pullback has been mild but get us over and now we'll start to have more confidence XL Y xlp is this one at the key level it's got a hold a higher low like right here right now I would say that discretionary it's better than Tech in a in a vacuum so perhaps watching for that and if we look at the semiconductors versus Healthcare uh this is likely going to open on some sort of gap down tomorrow morning based on the discrepancy and Nvidia earning so that of course would be slightly more risk off over here uh the Japanese Yen carry trade is a long lost figment of the Market's imagination I would say that people have already moved on from this it has moved lower towards this uh sort of bottom end but it hasn't really done anything to indicate the S&P is in Jeopardy and we know that the reasoning behind that is first of all markets have short memory spans but also secondly the Nik index is recovering and staying pretty stable quite well this downdraft is really due to some of the downward pressure out of the dollar speaking of here it is right downward pressure out of the dollar has caused that Yen pairing to move lower as well so you know with a lower Dollar in Fundamental Evidence theory that's bullish for us equities so the relationship's sort of been broken and we know that the general correlation between the Yen and US equities was never really that great to begin with it's just when it becomes a focus and it's more of a an unwinding of something if we look at gold it's still stable up near these highs maybe a bit more of a riskof indication if we look at interest rates stable down here we know this there's been no change out of interest rates inverted to the TLT basically this is good stability out of rates is good volatility in rates is volatility in markets let's move along to the inverted ZT the contracts just rolled the other day so mind the gap down it's not really a gap down if you were to un invert this and uh just think about it in the opposite sense right uh and then we can turn on what we want to adjust for contract changes there we go basically unchanged in here which you know think about this think about this like the FED cutting rates if if we break out for a big move probably higher odds of a 50 basis point cut if we just stay stable here pretty stable odds of a 25 basis point cut right and speaking of let's move on over to the FED tracker tool and see what's going on with that right on the money right so with the inverted ZT being stable also getting decent odds still of that single rate cut I still believe that this is the appropriate path forward I think a double rate cut is irresponsible ible um personally like a little a little bit of personal bias stepping in but a double rate cut is going to send real estate prices higher I'm already seeing it in my local market uh and housing prices generally speaking are already about as unaffordable as they've ever been so that would be an issue for services inflation it would not come down I think the FED would have to battle round two of inflation and that would be a huge policy misstep if they cut rates too aggressively here uh we all know that based on the calendar this week we have initial jobless claims tomorrow morning expecting 232,000 preliminary GDP is also slated to come out the expectation here is 2.8 I'm not sure I'm a believer of that noting that the Atlanta fed GDP now estimate has been revised down substantially from 2.8 to 2% so be expecting something on the light side there I think the market knows that I wouldn't be shocked if this is uh does not hit the forecast basically what else is going on here pce into the end of the week might be insightful but probably not really uh reason I would say that is because CPI has already been released we know that there's a small uptick in Services inflation outs you know housing Services inflation but outside of that it's been pretty stable so not looking for anything new out of that maybe just reinforcing the pre-existing data that we got earlier on in the month and the main event I would say the next big big thing to watch out for is the Labor Day week you're going to get a bank holiday on Monday of course but uh forget about manufacturing pmis it's the jobs report right it's it's the really heavy-hitting jobs report it's the detailed reports we get jolts job openings we get the ADP nonfarm on Thursday that week uh you're going to get ISM Services PMI that'll be insightful based on the cost breakdown versus new orders then you're also going to get the full monty of the report on hourly earnings true non-farm payroll and the unemployment rates typically this Genie is very difficult to put back in the bottle and Jerome pal has been very clear that he does not want to see further Cooling in the labor market so watching that but that's next week so into the end of this week it's not really something that we have to be concerned with what we should start talking a little bit more about of course is NVIDIA earnings and why did Nvidia beat the expectations but is it why why is it still moving in the downward Direction well I've got a number of reports pulled up for you and we'll take a look at them in just a second I do want to give honorable mentions to crowd strike Salesforce that's really it uh Lulu is going to be interesting after the close tomorrow do Dollar General before the open could be insightful and again both of these really from a consumer spending perspective right lower tier consumer higher tier consumer again that's just based on price points I'm not saying that rich people can't shop at the Dollar General and I'm not saying that poor people can't shop at Lulu melon I'm sure it happens all the time people spending hundreds and hundreds of dollars on pants who should probably be buying uh Target specials for whatever I I bought Target specials for a long long time let me tell you anyways who am I to tell you what to do let's talk about Nvidia earnings let's jump into a couple of things here that were a bit of a concern right these are the actual reports and I've got a couple of different quarters pulled up the first thing this is this quarters or the most recent release what came out tonight gross margin is down for the first time here uh from or not for the first time but just generally on the comparison it's down we did not hit a growth on growth gross margin which is possibly disappointing for investors the other thing that specifically caused the market Nvidia really to move lower during the call was commentary that Blackwell's production needed to be I don't know about re-evaluated is the right word um but just sort of like they were making adjustments to Blackwell's production they still think that there's going to be a ton of demand for Blackwell they're seeing continued demand for the latest chips that they're that they're implementing of course and you know all the Cuda stuff that they're doing like I'm not trying to take away from that but the comment about Blackwell and the implementation and the process there little bit shook the market up right so that paired with the sort of lack of gross margin expansion here from previous is the first concern the second concern is that if you look at the quarter over quarter results here this is the first quarter where we've had less than 20% um quarter over quarter Improvement right so up definitely on everything but gross margin but not more than 20% if we look at the previous q1 and take a look over here notice that we had 20% 20% 20% you could really just if you want to keep it simple compare diluted earnings per share right there you go so up over 21% if we go to the quarter prior to that right and notice also the gross margin was improved there if we go here what do we see this was like one of The Knockout reports from Nvidia quarter over quarter was up 33% right so basically what I'm getting at is the lack of look at this one up 50% % on a quarter over a quarter this was Q3 of uh of 24 just absolutely unbelievable right hu net income up 49% almost a double um you know on on a on a quarter by quarter basis just incredible incredible numbers that they were posting that of course is slowing down and this is just like the law of large numbers right you're not going to have this euphoric boom happening forever and I think the market was maybe pricing that in a little bit but now that we're actually seeing it ah up 12% that's kind of in my view why Nvidia technically reported good numbers but the Market's responding non favorably right so anyways that's a quick run through of the actual report let's get on over to the platform here let's finish up the I guess what we'll do just to not be too disjointed in the analysis is we will take a look at Nvidia you can see it's sort of suppressed down near these areas if we jump in with the market maker expected move which we've drawn in here oops let's go with clean not cleaner you'll notice with with the with with numbers that were fine again beating expect but not to the degree the surprise was not large enough you know it's it's a down move but it's not even close to the market maker expected move at 1240 I mean a lot can happen between now and 9:30 tomorrow morning but generally speaking this is not like a this is not nearly as impressive of the previous two earnings reports we've seen out of Nvidia and I think that for the most part we're going to apply Gap rules we're going to take it in stride you've broken down clearly from an overhead balance and it just becomes all about is there a daily high or low the daily trend is up is there a daily higher low DHL shipment that we can participate in all right let's get back to risk Technical Evidence appetite charts by going over to our let's go bonds relative to themselves TLT ratio is fine right now this continues to suggest risk appetite is strong notice the new lows and just consolidation here it's not really a strong uptick as the market was breaking down today that again risk appetite remains stable um credit spreads a little bit of an uptick here but still flat out of the lower version sh y hyg not an issue again risk appetite seemingly strong junk bonds continuing to remain elevated at in trending versus stable and sideways out of the S&P risk appetite remains elevated and once again I think all of this ties into the narrative that we're looking at nothing more than a reasonable pullback on the S&P daily not an Armageddon style crash again uh like the Yen Cary Trade Panic if you look at Bitcoin you know people panicked over the weekend or overnight I should say on this one it really just like the broad Market has the opportunity for a higher low the concern is just that it's continuously rejecting this overhead range so possibly a smaller risk off indication but paired with or rather contract Ed with the hyg and the other more Market related not crypto related indications I wouldn't say it's a threat if we look at total breath the SPX a250 RS both look fine up here they're hovering right around 75% that's great if we look at new highs versus lows an expected downtick as this week we've broken from the balance but no issues with that if this was like starting to get Negative I'd be concerned it's just not the case if we look at the RSP jumping over here what you can see is an awesome opportunity for a possible higher low above uh in the post market trading right around one let's call it 174 174 is what I mean it's literally right here unchanged um you know not as much volume flowing through in this equal weight index versus the actual S&P but generally speaking again this has to be more of a bullish indication speaking to in the broader sense pullback in the context of a reformed uptrend basically in that S&P let's take a look at the qqqe this is still trading about 1: one so not not as bullish and that ties in with the Nar narrative already that we're bullish the S&P bearish the NASDAQ if we're looking for that shakeup we haven't checked in on the Dow transports versus Industrials and DOW theory in a while I would just point out that we did technically speaking make a new all-time high out of Industrials and transports are still lagging that with a lower high so carry that forward as possibly a bearish Divergence but I wouldn't short the market solely based on it if we look at the vix volatility is remaining elevated over 15 I'm curious to see whether or not volatility gets sucked out of the market tomorrow uh when Nvidia earnings are in the rearview mirror so this is almost a wait and see uh I'm curious as to whether or not we do like a quick update video tomorrow after the close just to see how Nvidia earnings shook out in the regular hour session right so VI vix I should say volatility of volatility still elevated did not make a move to complacency Zone yet and we also saw a huge uptick out of the one-day vix today uh I don't know if you guys monitor this intraday but generally speaking this thing was Off to the Races kind of a concern there um watching to see if it rejects if it rejects ideally this just instantly gets get back down underneath 1275 if it remains elevated over 1275 that would start to be sending some warning shots across the bow let's jump on over to Mike from Barefoot sailing adventures if you're if you're listening that one was for you uh American Psycho Mike that one was for you shots across the Boston wher bow let's jump back on over to the core list of companies though let's get the job Core List (MSFT, AAPL, GOOGL, AMZN, NVDA, META, TSLA, NFLX, JPM, AMD) done here and finish up tonight's episode Microsoft what do we have we've got ourselves you know I would say an interesting spot in the sense that this higher low yes this lower high on the hourly yes it's the competition of time frames I would still lean into the fact that the dailyweekly is trying to you know form this downtrend here we've not really held on to this level cleanly on this attempted break a couple of hammers back here never resolved higher the 200 SMA has been tested so generally I'm a bit I've got mixed emotions out of Microsoft in between these two levels if we can just balance here and then you know really look for something cleaner here or cleaner there I think those are going to be your better opportunities we're already getting some of that if we go on down to the hourly chart here what do we see so straight shot from top to bottom bare flag consolidation post markets 407 407 brings us somewhere in here High 407s though so really just opening near the lows of today's session if the Market opens up and and you know Nvidia is going for a Gap close I would expect Microsoft to do something that looks like this and the target would be back to 416 definitely re-evaluating when we get there thinking about short opportunities for a continued lower high even at this point a daily lower high right you're getting a counter Trend lower high is set and possible continuation reverses the daily Trend so really tough and and if you notice like as this initial breakdown was taking place it's not like we had one strong move that just like instantly got us there it's been a very grindy move through this territory so I'm really leaning into that and really this this week has been kind of a grinder it's it's been a grinder it's been a week to manage expectations and the chart structure here kind of agrees with that based on what I can see if we look at Apple another one manage expectation ations grinder look above and fail again uh upper Wick has sort of failed that 22775 we've adjusted the level slightly here if we bring it on in we had 226 we've moved up to 22775 uh obviously recapturing these highs a little bit more firmly in the flag opening print of today's session clear rejections underneath so so long as apple is below I would think continued balance in here and I would just really again dial back the expectations of anything impressive um not not not a good name to trade recently so let's just move directly along to video which we already talked about briefly on the extended hours there for a second uh but the forecast open is around 117 so let's bring in here 117 opening something like this so the framework is very simple you can tune into to the pre-market prep tomorrow morning and we'll talk about it in real time but generally what I'll be looking for is the gap fade right we're going to open here if we fail the overnight low and move through the opening print I'll be looking for longs to tag up to the bottom end of the range and I'll get you that level here for a second uh let's go ahead and bring out the default set we're opening around 117 so right around in this key Zone mind you if we can support it I think that's a great opport like just just from a from a trend following perspective great spot for a possible higher low to be honest with you earnings really weren't that bad yes it missed like the the percentage surprise beat but really not bad numbers if you could support here close the gap and battle for acceptance back in range maybe there's some sort of trend line break in the future that gets this thing back up to highs I don't want to be overly optimistic and again this is a gap down so let's mind that but generally speaking the Gap fade off of this level for upside seems kind of I I wouldn't say like a top watch but definitely something to keep eyes on for tomorrow and also just simply put if Nvidia closes the Gap that's going to be bullish pressure in the S&P I would probably be looking for that uh range rotation to the top end in the Spy itself that's the Nvidia chart let's take a look at goog goal is a look look above and fail that is starting to like solidify itself so very simply put this is a balance range look above and fail should Target the bottom end of the range that's at 15650 if we take it on down to the hourly time frame chart huge liquidation break off of the open underneath this you could call it a descending triangle you could call it a double top whatever you want to call it it doesn't matter the watch here is if we currently are opening around 160 let's go 161 almost 162 so 162 is right here if we pinch higher that's fine let it go and I would rather position for shorts on a lower high here at 16475 rotate back to the bottom through the thin structure into where the value was found if we just open weak and stay here I would look for a brigade bolt underneath 16150 to Target the bottom end of the range 15650 so Google is probably one of the cleaner charts that we've looked through so far which is kind of ironic considering that this range back here was painstaking let's move along to Nancy see what's going on with Amazon's daily chart here uh first and foremost grinder to the downside uh it did not give any indications of a gap fi reversal no indications of a hammer off of the 200 SMA green moving average on your screen but it is starting to support over this breakout Point that's the lower Wick from today's session as we drop it down to the hourly you're going to see a similar chart to Google where it's a straight shot lower and some consolidation into the afternoon so my watch here would be really focusing on this 17225 if you could spot a rejection of that I think that the downside March just continues very clear opportunities for these sustained lower highs I would be targeting at least the equal low and then from there on a second test I would not be short here instead I would say is this possible for an hourly Trend reversal to get some sort of daily right retest of this break Brigade bolt possibly some kind of higher log set here lows higher lows it's a possibility so second test of this level I would be thinking about what's the opportunity right even if it looks like this whatever what's the opportunity for some sort of reversal off of this 16875 doesn't mean you can't short for point A to point B but when we get back to B I would start thinking about this into the future I think I've been pretty clear about that on Amazon next up metaverse what's going on with Zuckerberg and the fantasy land um continued mild downdraft one of these things that I think you want to read into as a trade is you know when we're breaking for these new lows are we getting acceptance on those lows is the market accelerating under those lows or is it really lackluster like this first day was a great day to to be short the The Meta move right but now as it's really broke and lacked follow through there it's becoming less and less attractive for new shorts as you're making these incremental lower lows so in my head I'm thinking I either need to see a stronger retracement into 52425 to set up clean risk reward that looks like this back to the downside or set up another balance range and then maybe there's this into the future so one step at a time to be bullish here you've got to get the you know inverted Head and Shoulders p in the sky back over that 5450 we can all see that clear as day on the hourly time frame chart right so if it's going to be bullish you got to accept here and you got to do something that looks like this looking to execute risk reward here probably up to this honestly the opening print uh around 5 3750 to give you an updated level on the Fly that would be your upside trade there and the downside trade is just okay we test this struggle and if we can short this right that's what you're looking for and then ballooning Runners into that deeper level at 50350 that's metaverse both up and down next up we've got Tesla Mr musk in the rocket ship not so much a rocket ship more of a boring company but this probably reminds me more closely to Amazon with the retest of a big old previous breakout level if we can get a rally attempt shorts off of 212 are fine for a possible lower high in this area but start thinking about the double bottom so just take exact what I said about Amazon and rinse and repeat it here at Tesla 20275 all right 20275 Tesla is your key watch and again that's based on if we look at the daily trying to support over this breakout range there daily 200 SMA as well 20275 that's that JP Morgan financials breaking out to new all-time highs no issues with this one continues to be a grind some intraday Madness if you will with the retracement but generally speaking as long as we're over 219 looking for continued blue skies if we break down underneath it you trigger a little bit of a double top there there's probably a short that you know starts to unlock a pullback but just be mindful that the pullbacks likely just maybe a day or two to get into this Zone and then I would start thinking about what's the opportunity for reversals on the retest of the previous highs 1 two 3 broke out Brigade bolt higher low over 21575 next up Netflix can't really seem to make it happen up here at the all-time high starting to suggest more of a double Top This neckline is in play for the remainder of this week this is actually a beautiful watch right if you're looking at this you ort of set the bare flag into it if you just get consolidation that's in here 680s uh you start breaking down below I think you've got a pretty clean opportunity and some Runway into that 663 75 so watching that out of Netflix seeing if we can set that trade up um if it fails you're probably going to have to stop out and I'll stop out with you on the short side uh and then I would just sort of treat this as more of a balance if it fails and comes back in to be long I would need to see okay failure back inside this might change my tone to a long because it's a thin structure retrace and it would sort of imply inverted head and shoulders so trying to play the wh ifs again we'll have to stop out if it triggers a short and it comes back into range we'll we'll take that one on the chin but uh that's how I would navigate the Netflix primarily thinking about shorts based on the lack of acceptance near those all-time highs twice next up AMD AMD sympathy to Nvidia yes opening around 1440s 4040s puts us down here on a gap down underneath a pretty key level let's go to the Daily so we don't get this one mixed up yeah all right so AMD no longer really thinking of like you know mild pullback over a level really coming from this consolidation that balance more so thinking Gap rules in play more so thinking if it drives lower if we get a a gap and go out of AMD I would try to look for support to come in at 136 noting that you're at the lowest low of the cycle if you if again big if on that statement if you find buyers at 136 which might look something like on the hourly you open on the gap down right you get a drive lower you test Tire you break it again invert like all the classic indications we're looking for but if you spot buyers at 136 if you're a level two Watcher you could watch the tape and see if you could spot um you know people just passively buying it buying it buying it and then getting aggressive on a reversal that would be something to watch but 136 extension seem to me to be somewhat in play just as purely a pure technical play off of 136 right so watching out for that that's AMD that's the core list of companies I've got two additional ideas for you MCD McDonald's is up first the All-American heart attack what do we have taking a look this is a beautiful head and shoulders failure to break out over Trade Ideas (MCD, SBUX) the range failed today and broke underneath the neckline so as long as we're under 28715 looking for a thin structure retracement off to our left to tag up to 28240 looking for shorts out of McDonald's overhead Supply Weighing on price to the downside it's not in play if we open or end up back in range for tomorrow that's 28715 trades into 280 240 next up we've got Starbucks sbu this one's getting a lot of talk and uh there's a nice little breakout over here but what happened today nice little failure so seeing Starbucks fail underneath 96 now implies to me that very similarly to McDonald's if this is going to be a range look above and fail if we get consolidation under 96 just looking for the rotation into the lows the opening print of the Gap up on the CEO shakeup is looking like 91 flat that would be your downside Target there round numbers only you guys know the rules right so risk reward would try to be set something that looks like that and that's an opportunity based on the failure of the buyers to accelerate r on that range break that's going to do it for today's episode of the midweek market update with our deeper dive into Nvidia earnings we brought up a couple of reports there which we don't often do hopefully you found that value uh or valuable I should say and we'll just check back in one more time you know not even close to the lower edge of the weekly expected move so pretty much a respectful move uh bit disappointing but not terrible numbers uh Jensen also noted during the call I just caught the very beginning of it before I started filming this uh he noted that there's still plenty of of demand for you know chips that are currently en Force he sees that AI is only accelerating there's mention of the multimodal thing again and the uh the demand for lots of basically compute to train models at a high degree so anyways that's all I've got for you on today's episode if you enjoyed it or learned anything new let me know Down Below in the comment section or by giving the video a very simple thumbs up I think the thumbs up button is maybe closer to that side regardless I hope you all have a green rest of your trading week and I will see you in the next one oh [Music]