The Dow Jones Slamming into a 125 Year Trendline Warning of a Stock Market Top & Bear Market CRASH

now I do want to say something about the Dow up 160 points for the week up 39% it's coming up to this upper channel line kind of interesting here we were through it previously but the Dow is moving to a new high S&P is not there yet eventually it will join the Dow but we're at this trend line so just something to pay attention to the Dow got a very interesting Candlestick in the daily time frame today I'm going to be looking to see what the Candlestick looks like right now we have a candle V decision in the weekly time frame that is a candle V decision in the form of a spinning top just forming this multiple Point negative diversion so something to pay attention to on the Dow if we look at the daily chart the Dow got a very interesting Candlestick on the daily chart that was a dogee today uh it is forming a Divergence whether that is done or not we'll see but uh you do have it developing here on the RSI you do have it developing here on the macd so kind of an interesting uh Candlestick to form as we're slamming up into that upper channel line in the weekly time frame I thought that was rather interesting now sometimes and not but not always but sometimes the Dow in a peak ahead of the S&P 500 today good example the Dow was up but yet the S&P was flat NASDAQ was down often times have updates on the Dow on down days on NASDAQ and S&P vice versa D starts selling off and we get these new highs on uh s&p500 or NASDAQ or both and I think NASDAQ has peaked but I think it will move to the 20,400 area to fill that Gap and get a lower high get a bigger sell off first but uh interesting Candlestick today with a dogee on the Dow we'll see if that gives us a bigger um selloff in the market candlesticks meaningless unless it's confirmed uh we got a close below today's low we got to see a bigger sell off we'll be watching to see if that happens or not with the Dow something worth paying attention to and the Candlestick is something worth paying attention to on the Dow because it's diverging with the transports and the lower window down here uh Dow's moving to a new high the transports are not you tend to get these diverences at turning points over and over again that Mark uh tops and bottoms that Mark corrective moves with the negative divergences between the two or reversals Maring pullbacks or reversals just something we're paying attention to cuz here we have a Divergence again last one that we got right here they diverged and we had the early August selloff so again we'll be watching to see what happens there with the Dow very closely now as the Dow is hitting that channel in the weekly time frame and getting a dogee there in the daily we're right up at this long-term uh trend line This long-term upper channel uh going back 125 years back to 1899 this trend line right here uh again we're slamming up into it we slammed up into it in 2022 saw the S off in 2022 and again this is the Dow monthly time frame so again this is longterm this is 125 years data with this trend line with this upper boundary if we connect uh the 1899 Peak 1929 go up to 2000 2022 and now 2024 uh you know long-term major resistance if we have a parallel boundary hang on it moved on me here if we have a parallel boundary the lower boundary uh here and here again this is eventually where we could be moving back to is this trend line right here if we just take it from this low right here uh you have the red trend line uh below that so just some trend lines I'm looking at this midpoint is interesting uh from the uh from the highs over here down to this low again that's where we stalled there it's where we kind of stalled in here in the 1960s and70s uh it's where we stalled right here in the 80s and then we had the move in the '90s on up to the 2,000 high and this became support this midpoint for the Dow kind of interesting so again I'm looking for a move initially back to this midpoint area but eventually I think we're going to see a move back to the lower boundary but just long-term uh long-term resistance and again let me just say this the people talking about the soft Landing we're not going to have a recession oh cuts are going to are so bullish well again it's highly unlikely the Dow is going to be able to clear this area I've talked about this trend line being major long term resistance it is very unlikely that we are going to blast on through this level again we're likely in a topping process and this trend line is telling us hey major top is likely forming on the Dow on the S&P and on the NASDAQ the AI bubble is about to burst like we had the bursting of the tech bubble and the.com stocks and agal crisis we're likely going to see something like that here again we see these credit driven issues cing recessions it's probably going to be a credit driven issue with the commercial real estate sector and the problems there spilling over into the banks guess is we're going to see another bare Market that's going to take us back to the midpoint this is a long-term monthly chart I think we'll see a bare Market that will take us back to the midpoint eventually I think we'll see a new bull market that will not make a new high and then eventually move back down to one of these trend lines that's what I think longterm uh is is likely uh likely in play here for the long term got a 125-year trend line that has marked major tops 1929 2000 2022 and now we are at it again in 20124 forming major negative divergences on the weekly and monthly charts in doing so in reaching this level I'm watching the Dow so closely please support the Channel with the link directly below that allows me to be able to provide you this information I don't have any sponsors just a direct relationship with you if you could take a moment to do that I would really really appreciate it if you follow the link it'll take you to a secured site you can donate any amount you want or make it a recurring donation if you do that I thank you but please consider supporting the channel today channels use sponsors I choose not to do that they contact me all the time I turn all those offers down I don't want to sell you a bunch of junk you don't need send you to websites where they want to overcharge you for things so please consider helping out today I uh would really appreciate that thank you the vix uh is hovering right here at the 50 period if we're going to see volatility come back you got to Surge back here above the 50 period the green line right there notice the 50 is above the 200 this is a huge warning sign likely again suggesting we are in a topping process if the vix holds below 50 the S&P can try to make new high to fill the Gap at the 5670 area if it uh the S&P gets a bigger sell off the vix can surge above 50 right now we're just jumping up and down above and below the 50 as the S&P is getting that uh choppy price action the Divergence is the 60-minute chart just giving us a mild sill off at least so far we'll see what becomes of that okay we have the Nvidia earnings but despite Nvidia beating on earnings it was still down Nvidia closed by 6.38% lower ended up NASDAQ attempt to recovery big rally as Nvidia attempted to rebound intraday uh but uh sold off towards the end of the session NASDAQ ended down about 25 points lower big a rally attempt fizzled and we ended uh down 6.38% on Nvidia after again the ralles uh ended up failing intraday and you can see that on this chart right here so Nvidia ended down about eight bucks U down to uh the 1172 area breaking the 50 period moving average here you can see it again here is the open it attempted to Rally to try to fill the Gap was a 10 period moving average but then it closed below that 50 period and resting uh right there around the 20 period moving average that's a blue line you see right there uh the RSI did break the 50 level with that Gap lower the stochastic broke the 80 level now we had the Dow up S&P and NASDAQ were down the Dow was up 243 points the Dow slamming up into a major trend line of resistance of the channel kind of interesting there S&P was was flat and the NASDAQ uh was down about a quarter of a percent NASDAQ 100 was down 25 points NASDAQ Composite 39 Russell's up 66% and the vix was down it's just over 8 1/2% now tomorrow before the Market opens we're going to get the uh pce inflation data headline year-over-year number is supposed to come in at uh two 2.5% that's what it came in at previously uh the core year over-year is supposed to come in at 2.7 previously it came in uh last month at 2.6 a little higher on the core the headline number is supposed to come in at the same level in addition to the pce data we get the personal income and the personal spending uh data and all this will be before the Market opens on Friday and next week will be a short trading week we will have the Labor Day holiday in the United States on Monday next week we're going to be getting that jobs report and remember last jobs report we got it's now predicting a recession hasn't been wrong since 1970 and it's basing that on the 3-month moving average of the unemployment rate the 3-month moving average being above the low made over the last 12 months by half a percent that is predicting a recession triggering the PM rule short trading week next week unemployment rate and then tomorrow the pce inflation data now one other thing one other thing about Nvidia is it did get a shift in momentum uh again it's uh now below the 10 period moving average uh but you uh did get that drop below the 50 period moving average we took out the lower boundary of the cloud we're below the 10 period moving average you see the little red arrow uh that's uh Now to turn the Cloud to Red we below the lower boundary of the cloud taking out the 50 so it's what that means is there's a shift in momentum here hold below the 50 period moving average we get a bigger drop even if we rebound if we remain below the 10 period moving average as as curling over doors open for a u a pullback or a reversal if that happens so we'll be watching uh Nvidia kind of interesting as that happens uh Apple's getting a possible gravestone dogee momentum has not shifted on Apple but it's an interesting Candlestick as we're getting that shift in momentum on Nvidia uh just uh something to pay attention to uh dois can be continuation or reversal patterns but uh it'll be interesting to watch see if Nvidia holds below the 50 period moving average so what does that do uh for uh the NASDAQ NASDAQ 100 had the shift in momentum the day before Nvidia got it and again I talked about this yesterday we lost the 10 period moving average we saw the red arrow we saw the taking out of the lower boundary of the cloud and again we lost that 50 period now Nvidia is doing it we're still below the 50 period moving average that's the green line right here uh still below the 10 the red line right there but there is a possible inverted Hammer again if this was just a pullback we could still try to go higher if things remain red if we don't end up getting a big rally with the pce data it's still possible that again we get this larger corrective move right here right now and then go back up and go up to the uh 20,400 area fill the Gap uh and then uh set up a lower high that's what I think is going to happen at the moment at the moment uh we do have momentum down on the NASDAQ and now on Nvidia so we'll be watching to see do uh we get a recovery and again try to see the S&P push towards a new all-time high try to push to fill this Gap sooner rather than later on NASDAQ or do we get a bigger sell off and then come back and do it as we move towards the FED pivot uh September 18th which is what uh I think is going to happen I think the FED will pivot on September 18th that's been asso iated with Market tops as I've talked about at Great length in detail earlier in the week so again I'm looking for a topping process to complete I'm looking for S&P to make one final push higher I'm looking for Nasdaq to eventually fill this Gap uh but uh again I'm looking for that to happen either before the FED pivot with the FED pivot or shortly after uh the FED pivot there on September 18th we're moving now into September member and October they tend to be months where you get a lot of volatility and I do expect the topping process is likely going to complete the question is uh do we get that pop on the S&P immediately does NASDAQ try to come back and fill the Gap immediately we get this larger uh corrective you know kind of a move going into fed pivot on September 18th short trading week next week so we'll be watching to see how it unfolds but while Nvidia uh is getting that momentum shift uh on the Thursday session we got it on the Wednesday session for the NASDAQ uh we'll be watching to see if we attempt to recover or if it continues uh to have negative momentum here and if so does ndaq witnessed a bigger uh pullback SMP uh well NASDAQ got the to momentum the cloud turning red S&P didn't get it was flat today and again yesterday had a red awesome oscillator bar turned back to green today I'll be watching to see if we get further U weakness with the pce data with NASDAQ if that causes S&P to get that uh pushed down if we attempt the recovery right here right now to uh try to make a new all-time high on the S&P 500 so while NASDAQ seeing a shift in momentum uh we don't have it here yet for the S&P 500 reversal of conditions with the cloud uh not yet try to rally with the PC data watching does NASDAQ shift back to bullish with momentum or do we s off and momentum remains bearish on NASDAQ and it drags SMP down so be watching to see which way it plays out but like I said into the September 18th meeting I do expect the S&P to make a new all-time high could get a pullback ahead of that what happens momentum shifts back down if it remains bullish you can do it immediately Divergence is on the 60-minute charts but all they've done so far is really just kind of give us a a uh mild pullback and the S&P is kind of going sideways with thatp daily chart here now as far as the S&P goes again watching to see what happens here we got the diversion here much like what we had the Divergence over here see does this just give us a a uh ter pullback go up and make a new all-time high right here and fill the Gap and so you've got a possible fway push higher again La wave of speculation I look I use it to validate or invalidate things counts get invalidated all the time uh the question is uh again if we have a three a four do we get a five up here somewhere we get a bigger sell off and then come back up up and do it as we move closer to the FED pivot certainly possible uh S&P has not seen the shift in momentum yet but we've got it on NASDAQ and now we have it on Nvidia so we'll be watching uh is does that pull the S&P down with with the uh uh the NASDAQ there uh again we've had this Divergence on the macd and on the RSI and gapping higher today saw the rally fizzle out and the S&P Clos flat back all the gains with the rally on NASDAQ and S&P for the session so I'll be watching to see what becomes of this but uh right now have these divergences in play on the 60-minute chart just cuz I'm marking this count here doesn't mean it's necessarily going to play out that way and there could still be a bigger selloff before we attempt to make a new all-time high right here but I do think that that is coming whether we get it immediately or whether we get a bigger uh sell off and then come back and do it remains to be seen but I do think that we will move up to that level again 60-minute chart uh we have this diversion so it came down and it broke this trend line ever so slightly we got back above it and then now we're back below that trend line uh again I've been watching the momentum line here and the momentum Cloud we tried to get back above them and then dropped right back down here below the momentum line and uh right here in the trending Cloud area that's turning red into the future so again we start breaking these levels we can get a bigger dump be watching the 200 period we'll be watching uh the Gap fill down here uh on the 60-minute chart the 200 in this Gap fill area do you see that happen again NASDAQ can get a bigger drop we also have the back test of this trend line right here uh if we do go uh Beyond this Gap fi area that is a trend line to be watching P6 minute chart here we do see a bigger S off NASDAQ and it drags the SMP down watch the 20 period moving average this is the uh uh the momentum Cloud right here and again the momentum Cloud down in this area right here the 20 period moving average do have the 10 above the 20 if we move back to try to fill this Gap right here uh we've got the 20 period moving average very close to that level again do we move to try to fill the Gap up here immediately or do we sew off first and then come back up and try to do that and move to a new all-time high ahead of the FED pivot on September 18th which is when I believe that is going to take place really the question becomes do we move down towards you know Gap support or the the Gap fill down here to try to fill the gap of the 20 period or do we move to try to fill the Gap right here which one uh comes first some piece still at that uh back test trend line area uh we turned off of it to make a new high right now we got to clear that level and go to a new high get a reaction a bigger reaction off of this level again watch the 20 period moving average and the Gap uh directly below S&P has had this shift in the trend where we're going up we've now gone sideways with this diversion so far it's just given us a pullback it's not really given us a bigger selloff it's still May we're jumping up and down above and below the uh 50 period moving average there uh on the uh 60-minute chart remember nasdaq's dropped below at the 50 period was is acting as resistance so if we do get a bigger drop watch the 200 period moving average and the 20 period in the daily and the Gap fill down over here uh in the mid 5400 area here I've marked the uh gaps uh down below uh we have the Gap up here um previous Peak at 56 69.6 7 so that 5670 area directly overhead again does that Gap get filled and we uh get the all-time high or do we come back down here did fill this Gap we did fill this Gap yesterday uh at the 5573 area below that again we have 54 53 down here it's under a 200 period moving average 5 345 and 5201 if we do get a bigger sell off this is the gap to be watching 5453 and our 200 period moving averages just above it near the 5470 range the inflation data Maybe with the light uh short trading week next week do we try to do this or do we try to do this and then do this regardless again I think we will be up here at this 5670 area and exceed it move to new High NASDAQ I think we'll get a lower high but it could be we get a bigger selloff first far the diverences have really given us this kind of sideways move in this mild uh selloff here on the S&P 500 do have a Divergence between S&P and NASDAQ S&P moved to a new high NASDAQ did not the door is open to a bigger corrective move but so far so far it's just been this sideways chop that we've had here on the S&P 500 the diversion has not say retracement so far but a sideways corrective move at least so far that diversions completing uh just kind of selling off rebounding back up and kind of going sideways if we get the bigger drop or not we make the attempt to go to 5670 but so far momentum's hanging in there for the S&P we'll see if it joins the NASDAQ with the momentum having already turned bearish now again on the 60-minute chart the S&P is above the 200 the black line right here we're jumping up and down above and below the 50 NASDAQ is below the 50 the pring parameter is still positive but it's rolling over so again there's still the possibility of testing the 200 and trying to fill this Gap over here getting a bigger sell off if we see NASDAQ and to drag the S&P down but if we get a bigger sell off the 50 is still above the 200 bring parameter still in positive territory in order for things to turn bearish for the S&P we got a su pring parameter go negative we got to drop below the 200 then have the 50 drop below the 200 here on the 60 Minute chart we could get a bigger SE off things are still positive it's likely that we're going to make a new all-time high uh whether that is sooner or later uh really depends on this chop does the chop lead to a bigger selloff we just correct sideways and in up turning up higher so we'll be watching to see how it unfolds remember NASDAQ had that shift in momentum now S&P has followed yesterday's down day uh again if we start losing this 10 period moving average we're below it right now but if we start uh getting a a bigger drop below it if we have a topping tail here rather than an inverted Hammer we have a topping tail and we start getting a bigger sell off towards the 20 towards the Gap fill here uh then some P might join uh NASDAQ and see momentum uh shift uh with the reversal of conditions for momentum even if that happens again we're still likely going to come back and fill this Gap up here and make a new all-time high so we'll see do we get the sell off and then a rebound or do we just try to rebound and make a new all-time high immediately S&P is losing that 10 period moving average with momentum uh rolling over uh so again if it joins uh the NASDAQ getting a reversal of conditions with the Red Cloud talking about in this video back up at the peak we had this diversion and it gave us this nearly 10% uh sell off we've rebounded back up we've now formed the smaller little diversions so far again that's just given us some chop here that has just kind of given us a mile pullback on the S&P could if we have a topping tail here we could see a bigger sell off uh to go back can fill the Gap at test of 20 before going higher but uh we just get a mile pullback and this is an inverted Hammer uh we start seeing uh signs of strength in the 60-minute time frame we can make that new all-time high uh immediately now NASDAQ after filling this Gap over here we've been struggling we've pulled back here again do we have uh this reversal taking place off the upper end of the trending Cloud here we get this pullback again gives us something like this where we've come back down and then we turn back up and we eventually come back and fill this Gap at 20,400 and then get this double top type of a pattern the lower high in a rally right now we got to be able to really clear this area and again you've got a possible bull flag or bullish falling wedge under construction uh but uh again we're going to get a rally we got to clear the trending cloud and back above the 10 period moving average the 50 period moving average here the green line we're just below it the 10 period we've rolled over we're under it so we got to clear those levels if we're going to try to resume the advance eventually I think we're going here the question is do we do that sooner rather than later or do we get a bigger seof uh that uh again get something like that into the FED pivot and I told you earlier in the week we had that shift in momentum nzte we also had it here along with the cloud that I showed you in this that I'm showing you in this video Nvidia is doing this as well right here with momentum uh so again does this cause the NASDAQ to remain below that 10 period moving average as it's uh starting to tip down now and uh again if it if so does that give us a bigger uh s off again come back and fill some of these gaps uh down here and down down here on the 60-minute chart again if we do that it start moving uh back down or Fibonacci retracement of this move right here maybe towards the 200 uh again if we do see that happen again you could see that scenario that I talked about eventually coming back up here to the 20,400 area do think we have a possible larger ABC move here uh under construction on the NASDAQ should we get a bigger selloff then rally after that uh with a move to higher levels to the 2,400 area likely overthrowing it we move towards a Fed pivot possible Head and Shoulders guess is we're going to end up seeing a double top instead that will eventually uh you know probably look something like this uh and then and then uh I think S&P will move to a new high and they will diverge with nasda back and nasdaq's come back and fill these gaps we still have this one up here uh but like I said I think that uh we do get a bigger pullback an ABC move could be under construction but still come back and fill this Gap uh as we move closer towards the September 18th of fed pivot right now momentum is still down on NASDAQ uh in the daily time frame the intraday charts a 60-minute chart now NASDAQ back 60-minute share PR parameter is still bearish here it's still pointing down but it's in positive territory the 50 is above the 200 again as we have dropped below the 10 period moving average on the daily chart we Dro below the 50 period here we're getting uh resistance here at the 50 period and the 10 period in the daily along with the cloud here in the uh 60 Minute time frame uh got a possible bull flag that's developing maybe uh we moved to the 200 and it completes if we get uh a drop below the 200 again you've got uh the Gap filled down here you've got the Gap filled down here again do we get a larger uh ABC type of a move right here right now uh do we see NASDAQ just drop through the bottom of this uh the lower boundary of the bull flag or do we try to break out above it and clear the 50 clear the 10 in the daily and clear the cloud if we do that then again you're likely going to go back and try to uh take out this High we'll see if we try to make it up to this level if we see these levels act as resistance and continue struggle to get above them above the 50 period here on the 60-minute chart and above the 10 period on The Daily in the daily time frame then again uh it's possible we have the bigger drop as I've been talking about uh for the larger ABC move could see the crisscrossing back and forth of the 50 and the 200 as we're forming this large uh topping process the crisscrossing uh of the moving averages know bullish uh going here to bearish back to bullish bearish back and forth back and forth some things to be paying attention to the 50 curling over we're getting rejection added here in the 60-minute time frame the 10 period in the daily time frame on NASDAQ in order for a bigger drop pring parameters got to go negative got to drop the 200 50's got to drop below the 200 that's what has to happen for a bearish scenario right now still want a bullish scenario PR parameter still positive 50 is above the 200 but price has dropped below the 50 period moving average and so we're seeing this uh this pullback or possible larger corrective move if it continues uh downward stack 60-minute chart here here you can see it here you can see it up close on the 60-minute shared again possible bull flag and play here maybe not done if we hit the 200 to move just beyond it but we start losing this area right here uh you can get a bigger uh sell off uh again we would have a fail pattern on the bull flag pattern again a break out of the pattern above the cloud above the 50 uh then could take us to the next Gap up here this one right here uh we have filled as I've said this negative diversions uh play out in this selloff right here so we'll see does it conclude somewhere above the 5200 period the black line right there the support and resistance line the orange line right there uh or if we take those levels out again a bigger uh bigger selloff like I said eventually uh whether we get a bigger selloff right now or have this more uh mild sell off but then get a bull flag breakout eventually I think we're coming up to this level right here here the bigger selloff RSI might reach oversold levels here uh and form a Divergence the sell off today uh again we had a rally that fizzled out uh on NASDAQ we're seeing the mxcd uh roll over here at the center line so again the risk is that we blow through this area and get a bigger pattern a larger retracement before going up and hit hting this 20,400 area now here are the Gap fills again we had the diversions over here it ended up giving us a 15.7% uh drop on NASDAQ we recovered we broke the downward trend line coming back and filling the gaps we got back above the 10 and 20 period moving average on The Daily time frame giving NASDAQ a bigger rally we rallied up we formed this Divergence here uh and that's given us a selloff either if bull flag is setting up or again if we drop through it and take out the 200 period moving average uh we can come back and fill some of these gaps you got one here at the 19,000 area uh below that you've got one here at the 18550 area but if we rebound back up and again clear the trending Cloud if we clear the 50 period the green line right there right at the upper boundary of the bull flag uh and break out then again you could make an attempt to to go up and try to fill the Gap sooner rather than later so again I'll be watching to see how it unfolds you start taking out that 200 you start dropping below this trend line uh then the do is open to fill in this Gap here at 19,000 and of these other gaps if we again get this move this corrective move right here right now uh as we move towards the FED pivot we get a sell off but then we get a rebound up towards 20,000 so I'll be watching to see which way it plays out do we just have a mile pullback and uh are going to resume the advance or do we get something that's going to be deeper something going to be uh bigger mum has turned back up with this Divergence right here but it's only given us another lower high at least so far NASDAQ 60 Minute chart here we watching the bull flag do we break out with the pce data going into next week with our short trading week or do we start seeing a drop below this 200 period moving average coming back and filling some of the gaps