NVDA Crash: Stock Market Crash: SPY QQQ SMH VIX

good afternoon welcome to options tender it is Tuesday happy short week here everybody thanks for joining us here we're going to go through spy a multiple time frames and uh focus on the cues as well on the lower time frames take a look at traditional technical analysis and a couple other uh indicators Elliot wave and such um the market is telling us that price wants to go lower we had a break of a range today so we're going to go through that and then where price could go to and also a measured move so we'll go through all that in this video we're doing this about 2:20 uh Eastern Standard Time intad day if you want to get these videos intraday if you're interested then uh consider becoming a supporter for 99 cents and then uh we did a members video today as well let um I believe that's $3 or so on uh YouTube membership so we let's jump into it we have spy on the monthly time frame we have the 2000 top 2021 top and we're forming a top here at uh 2024 here and so we're looking at this being a we have our hangman possible uh candle also tweezer top formation and we're getting a little bit of downside here so far so this could be the top this is possible uh we do have a Fed pivot when the FED pivots sometimes price is already headed to the downside and sometimes price goes a little bit higher before reversing so we don't know for sure what's happening here it you see this top took virtually 3 months to happen on that third month you had a nice down move it it could take time so we're forming a top here right at the 2 2021 top here and um we'll go to the lower time frames to show you what else could occur so uh we have this consolidation here that we tested already I do think um soon sooner than later in on this time frame what I mean by soon is you know three four five candles that could be 6 months from now that uh we test this area here but I think price will go down to that point it's just a matter of when is it this year is it next year I don't know but that's what we're trying to figure out as uh price gives us information let's go to the weekly on the weekly time frame traditional technical analysis we're just testing the top of this channel here it doesn't appear that we're going to get the top of that channel again at this point we have a potential reversal candle and we're starting to follow through underneath there so on this time frame that's the important thing to look for is a close underneath this possible potential uh reversal candle and we're starting to break that we're starting to breach that now do we close the week under there we'll see but you see this a good level here you have this low connecting with this low this high this High here this Wick low and a high this is an amazing and and very important level so on this time frame we'll call it about 554 and we're getting to the 8 EMA so there's possible that we get a reaction off the 8 EMA on the weekly time frame so we're in a bullish stance but if price gets underneath this 8 EMA the momentum is lost and we're looking for the trend whether it's going to hold or not I think this is more of a likely place that we'll at least test and probably Wick through and we'll kind of get a gist of where that is well right now it's um if we look over to the right here it's 53 D about 540 so 540 is probably going to be an important Point here and so we'll we'll check that out on the lower time frames so look looking at this other board we had our final Target hit at 162 retested it did not make a new high getting a reverse rsal right at this um time in price 92 91 it's the week of so we got that reversal at time and price so we can take this off now we de saidd it' be a critical point and that's what happened we got a reversal off of it so I I do think this continues and are excuse me so I think our primary pathway in my opinion is we we have a top end from here but since we did not we left unfinished business it it it can be a double top and we continue lower but this also leaves open that uh we could uh get our pullback and then make a new high before uh going lower as well but everything's satisfied at this point we had our targets so there's no reason that price has to go back up okay that's just um a scenario that we're going to have to keep in mind so we held this 23% pullback here so even if we make it all the way back down here to the 382 it's still considered a possible wave four down here and make new highs so the Poss is there in other words if and when we get down to this point we're going to have a reaction so do we get down here by this time frame that's the next one we're looking for about the middle of September for some sort of time and price action here so that could be lower or if price is up here when that uh comes into play then we'll be looking for a reversal at that point so time won't tell us where we're going but we'll be looking for a reversal at that point so just like this one here so let's go to the Daily time frame hear my dog barking in the background all right so traditional technical analysis we have a uh is rising wedge we over threw had a possible Channel we had a lot of Confluence up here uh that we reversed through had a fake break and started a break down from there broke down from the wedge back tested couldn't hold above it and had a just a huge move to the downside and so um you know that was a fake break a huge move and then recovered a v recovery here into the FED pivot so technically the FED didn't pivot with uh rate yet but they already acknowledge that that it's time to uh start to um move rates down so here's the important thing for this we had this consolidation here 1 2 3 4 five 6 7 8 9 10 10 days that's two weeks sideways we're breaking that we broke that area right here and I think I said 554 on this lower time frame looks more like 555 so whatever that range one point range there we're breaking down from that so A close underneath there and this thing could drop pretty fast here so that's I definitely wanted to get this video out to you because of that um price could accelerate to the downside after that we did not know what this consolidation it looked like going into Friday that price want to make an all-time high and then reverse from there now we didn't complete that okay we um we got a new high above here and I I believe SPX did not but spy did uh so that's another clue that this is possibly just a a um a reversal here before getting a new high so something to keep in mind okay so we have price could accelerate from this point you do have the 50 and the 20 here uh so you should see a reaction off the 548 549 but I do believe that price uh could accelerate down to lower areas here and what we'll be looking for structure-wise and you notice I have this this is time and price both in here so uh I do think we're on that pathway but looking at from a different perspective what I think is possible now if you're a bull you said this is wave four going into that 23.6 retracement okay we had an ABC and we're looking for now you know this still can be considered a consolidation area because we didn't make a new high we're up at the highs reversing off of it into time and price so we have this we can take that one off here we got a reversal and then if you're a bull you can be looking for this yes some people could say this a wave four or so but uh you know the deeper this pullback happens we can consider this as a bull a wave one it's nice impulse move wave one and get a sharp uh zigzag into wave two so maybe that is where price stalls here and gets a um a slight reaction off of uh the 549 get you get a move down here maybe a slight uh bounce and then the the zigzag 535 and then that would be the 50% retracement if this is going to be an ending diagonal we have no idea how low this is going to get could get down to the 530 it could be much deeper okay being more of a range play it will it really will will have to keep a look at this and the cues as uh to get Clues to whether or not um when we're going to get a bounce at minimum or new highs okay so this could be a one two and setting up for three four and five that would be the 2021 Playbook that we've gone through over and over two three four and five into a shallow Target at the 127 but there is a target above that if price wants to continue higher to six the 600 area my dominant uh scenario is that we got a reversal here and we're looking for price to continue lower we break these lows here and we go to the 382 that would be our next spot where we expect a um uh some sort of reaction okay and so this really could be a leading diagonal for one pull back for deep two a double top and you'd get wave three which would should continued lower than this 382 all right let's go down to the 65 so again we have time and price going in this area so we'll see if you know if we get this sharp move into uh a couple days 96 here or 911 that both of those play into uh that low there that's why I have the range of where we could find a low going to the 65 first our traditional look there's our wedge a back test and we broke down from this consolidation so one way to look at this uh break break down here yes this this could back test um first of all we know that the move is probably a fake break or so if we get back Above This 555 as as of right now we're breaking down from it it's also the move outside the options expected move and so price could Accelerate from that point uh with u you know the big guys hedging and whatnot that's a whole another conversation but we have this trend line I moved the trend line since we made a new high here I moved it to this low here we broke that earlier so that was a first signal now we're breaking the lows of the uh Tri or the uh rectangle that we had here and one way to measure this is if we just take a line and we'll keep this as maybe a red line here and this will be the measured move so you have this from top of the zone to the bottom of the zone and you take that from the break breakout point so that leads us right into the um that 4 that 540 really Nine area I know that's a little bit above you have the 200 moving average you have that uh I believe the 50-day and the 20-day moving average that we were talking about right in this zone so this would be a nice zone for price to get to possibly by tomorrow and maybe have a reaction off of doesn't have to that could be it for the the move for the retracement but I think that's where we'd get a reaction and then possibly lower here so I'm I'm again I'm looking for a zigzag at minimum so one two three wve move if it continues lower with a five wve move then maybe this is a impulse wave we get a lower high we continue lower as of right now we are trading this move into uh good support here time and price into the 530 area much much lower to go but we just got the break at minimum at minimum we're looking for this measured move at about 547 and there's a good support there as well previous uh breakout Point here and then a break down we just move this over and that's exact exactly into that support so just let's keep that support in mind it start to get into the Gap could get a reaction off there but I do suspect that this move will be lower after that so that would be a good spot to hedge all right so I continually I constantly hedge I'm not looking for Home Run moves I'm looking for base hits we have our swings to the downside and then I want to protect those swings so when we're holding the spot here at the expected move in the bottom of the rectangle I added on a couple days out a couple calls and also we're in Lulu to the upside and uh uh we did that trade alert today that's an for individual and um individual analysis and supporters on YouTube and we're looking at Tesla was a trade alert to the downside so we got that while Tesla was positive all day so um some a nice pairish trade going on here so what could happen is we could possibly have our move lower and this could go if it takes longer it could go into fomc this this isn't a definite area so uh but what I think might happen is if we get down to these levels then we probably bounce into fomc that should be an indicator for us it should accelerate price and it it the way the market works is I bet you this move this pulls back into like the 62% retracement or 50% retracement of the initial move here and going into fomc I think that will either accelerate price or accelerate uh uh price to fall here so I think there will be more of a um a controversial spot I should say if I may uh going into fomc now what happens after that you know who knows we'll have to react off of that but we'll we'll be in a neutral position by that point anyway so all right looking at the Elliot wave and the Fibonacci so I left this up here just in case the the rectangle broke to the upside I'm going to take that off it has broken down at this point so we don't think I don't think that all-time Highs are going to be hit here if we break back above 555 then I think this was likely some sort of complex a b expanded and then C impulse down here and then we get a new high so I definitely keep that in mind I'm already hedged from this spot anyway so um I think that's less likely now that we had a breakdown from the um consolidation area and now I know we have a cluster here stuff time and price rid of those the 94s boom a lot of stuff happening on this chart uh but we'll look for you know lows going into some of these later dated items and we have couple clusters here for that to happen so maybe we get our bounce into 96 or so later on um but again we have our retracements here from top to bottom if you're looking for this to be a wave 1 a possible wave two retracement would bring us right into this 50 62% retracement that 530 which coincides perfectly with this trend line from the traditional technical analysis so that's just a a wonderful Target there uh for a reaction and lower or again uh acceleration to the upside where we have some higher targets 580 I think would be the likely but um there are targets above there at uh 599 to 600 and how do you get that that's the um retracement here you have the um this correction we have the retra retracements which we already exceeded all of them uh and except for the 100% clearly and then after the 100% you have your retracements the main ones being 127.23 so if you get above 127.2% retracement at 599 all right so we have all of our targets and stuff but what is this going to look like on the cues and that's we always have to watch to see what they're doing is this driving the market down and I think so so we made a post here uh to P to the public that uh price was at a critical area so Not only was it at a critical area on spy with that consolidation and broke down from that consolidation we had a potential flag bullish flag so we're breaking down from that bullish flag right now that's super important because that's that's very negative and so again price could uh fall or accelerate tomorrow gapping down more where we closing the Gap now so that's why price is kind of halting for the second so I can close that one but uh price could easily Gap under this support area and continue to go lower now I have the 93 I wasn't sure this is a Zone here so it's going to look more likely to the to be and it could be lower because this is a falling um pivot here so either way and you know our minimum that we talked about on our trade was at 445 so our trade alert so uh that's where I'm going to start taking off profit there but uh this could easily you know extend out to um you like the 12th or 10th wherever the other time frames are so that could be like this CU that's the breakout Zone but it could also continue lower to back test there so we have all of these spots here that price could go to and we'll we'll have to uh protect our positions as price gets there so here's our retracements and this is also the reason right here we have the 382 this why it looked like this flag this flag was coming into the 382 so from this move here to the move here that could be a possible wave three and so a pullback for wave four is very typical at the 382 so that's why this was an important area here I can take it off we broke down from that area if we break back into that flag and above the 382 we'll call it uh 4 about 466 then we should also see that fake break and spy and this will probably lead to our next targets to the 786 which has not been tagged yet and higher the 887 I think ultimately um we might look for the 887 if we look for new all-time highs in spy I think that um that would close the gap here and I think we'd have a lower high in the qes so that's the most bullish scenario that I have for the q's um but going into our retracements from this entire move would be the 50% here the 454 and again time price I don't I don't have it we're not clearly going to make it down here today but uh going into like the 12th or so um so we have some room so we can make it down to 447 that would be 62% retracement and that would be exactly what the break area I was just talking breakout area I was just talking about so we're likely to see at least a reaction off of that one but really you know if if Q's are starting to break down and Tesla starts driving you know some of that as well as well as the other big tech stocks we could easily see the uh the lows here there and even all the way to the 887 okay so that would uh take us to um 436 or even 430 that I know that's a massive Zone it's not telling you it's not giving you answers of where but we need to see the structure kind of form too so we had a high here this looks like a possible a and then a b and now you need to see a one two we're going into wave three uh some sort of reaction maybe the three comes down here and then the wave four and five lower so really have to be careful on how low this one could drag us now another thing to look at at the same time is not only the vix but if you take a look at SMH you know this thing is really leading to the downside okay so with this you you still have some structure that will have to play out if this continues to drag look at this I mean you have your downtrend line and then you have a really good uptrend line up here so if price wants to get all the way down here and test the lows from here then you know the q's are probably you know a little bit higher but uh you know so if this is already down to the trend line and forming some sort of double bottom then you know that the cues are looking for pro a possible bottom at that point too so you got to look at all of these cues here and no pun intended so all of these um you know tea leaves and look at this I I don't think the um price is done going to the downside unless we see a nice big uh Spike through or a wick through this level we're getting past a a beautiful level again at about the 19 we have resistance support support and a breakdown here now we're getting back above it although we might pause here because of the gaps and we're getting to the Gap in the q's this thing I think is probably going to Gap over tomorrow or so so we're starting to form we're starting to break out from this inverse Head and Shoulder that I was talking about last week and then we back tested I said back tested here I said we could go a little bit lower we did and now we're getting a move breaking resistances getting above let's go ahead and go to the Daily so we can see that here and this whole entire move this massive move to the downside really just retested this uh uh 200 day moving average here and now we're getting a higher low in structure and starting to break out again so you know if if we draw this difference ly we're really just back testing the wedge that uh we broke out from back test and moving you know this there's nothing there's nothing bearish about this chart we're getting above the the 20 you know price could be very bearish very bearish at this point so look at all of those we'll give you more information tomorrow but I think this uh price action is going lower and um I think that uh we'll ride our um our puts all the way into our target areas so keep an eye on spy QQQ SMH the vix and I think they all had lower maybe a reaction here nothing goes in a straight line but just remember like if we're looking at that 2021 Playbook then you know these moves can be massive all right top of 2021 right here made a lower high look how deep that move was so we had our high here retraced almost to that high again just like we did this time and then a very sharp move to the lows all right in three days got all the way back to the lows and then made new all-time highs before breaking down and that's exact opposite of the q's so I'm still really looking hard at that situation right here had the all-time high mimicked went down with spy but led to the downside didn't quite come up as far to retrace and then made a new low all right that's still possible it led the market down while spy didn't quite get get past the low had a higher low and then a nice slingshot retracement an 88% retracement that I was talking about didn't make a new high and led the market much lower at that point breaking the uh consolidation sideways all right and so when I talk about consolidations breaking this is a range break this broke down just like um in the smaller time frames and then back tested and went lower so that's that's still possible in that lower time frame scenario I was talking about all right that's what I got for you guys thanks for joining us here options Center we'll talk to you tomorrow