VIX Surge. What is happening?

hi everybody it's Mark Sebastian your only option and this is your look at the week ahead today I'm going to share the economic data I'm looking at and watching closely the levels I'm looking at in the S&P the triple q and the Russell 2000 we're going to talk about volatility and what's happened with the vix now that it's over 20 what could happen next and I'll share a little bit of the stocks that we're still paying attention to so with that let's dig [Music] in all right everybody uh you still have the opportunity to join us in trading desk uh for the special one Monon price uh you can click the link in this chat to uh in this email to join us uh we'd love to see you there so let's start by um talk about the economic data there is just a whole host of economic data on Tuesday what really sent us South was uh ISM coming in pretty darn soft construction spending stunk uh PMI wasn't good and we were already starting the day poorly but those really took us down on Wednesday we have job openings uh joltz and then we've got the FED beige book that those are two pretty decent economic numbers uh Thursday these are a big ones we got initial jobl CA claims that's an important one to watch us Pro productivity not huge but worth watching uh ADP unemployment that is a big one and then uh ISM services so just another busy day on Thursday and then Friday of course we have non-farm payroll hourly wages all that important data so this is just a week just amam packed uh there is a reason that people kind of panicked when they saw that ISM number today uh with now now that fed the Fed rate cuts are basically a foregone conclusion bad news is bad news so let's look at what happened with the SPX pretty amazing where we stopped today what do you notice we touched the 50-day moving average and then boun Ed so now the question is are we going to break below the 50-day moving average break the 21-day which is kind of hanging out right around 5488 that would be about 40 40 bucks lower than where we are uh that's going to be kind of the two levels I'm watching 5504 and 5488 there Q's kind of a different story um they've been in some trouble for a while they had actually gotten up to they open below the 50 closed below the 21 touch the 100 The Q's have really been the the dog the S&P is the tail The Q's have continued to lag the S&P and we see some real weakness out of the triple Q I'm going to show you where we're seeing that weakness and where there could be some more downside there um but if the Q's Open lower next stop is 452 that would be the 150 day and then I mean next stop below there would be 440 but that would be pretty aggressive move really ugly day on Friday uh let's see where they take it from here next up we got the Russell 2000 um you know this had been actually one of the leaders uh it still has plenty of downside Runway this is probably the index I like the best out of all of them it's the most interest rate sensitive it is going to do better than the other indexes if rates are dropping and if the economy can kind of hold stable uh so kind of interesting everyone knows September seasonally kind of stinks uh obviously we started off with kind of a day um but if we're going to see some follow through uh the level to watch in the Russell 2135 if you're watching iwm which is kind of the more liquid version we're talking 21199 call it 212 uh last but not least the Dow Jones Industrial Average and this has been the the the strongest of the like broad Market indexes the ones that look at the big boys uh and it has a lot of room it's not even near it's 21 day in fact it's 21 day never even even in that major selling it's 21 day never across the 50 um 40389 it actually still is above 40 uh the Dow is still diamonds are still above 410 Dow just below 41,000 so plenty of room there now let's talk about the vix and where it stands vix closing 2072 um my yield Zone indicator a major thing I watch did go negative I am out of my svx stock for my backbone trading deck strategy but really we want to pay attention to this Futures term and where we are is what we would call a partial back ration the vix cash index closed above the entire curve September is still trading below October but October is trading above November November above December and um you know November and January are in equilibrium so we've got the flattest of flat curves this is a uh when we see this formation that is the market telling you we could have a wild move so be prepared all right so what stocks are going to kind of make decisions for us the answer is pretty simple Apple Apple has been Untouchable during this entire Market selloff even during the the absolute meltdown it never even got to its 150 day moving average um it touched its 21 days 50 it breaks here 204 in the cards it it could get ugly quickly and then the other one is NVIDIA you know a lot of people got really excited on this quick rally it is amazing the speed with which this thing has sold off I'm looking for it to touch 100 again uh once it gets down there now now we're talking about being interested in it again um of the of the the mag seven stocks um you know the ones I like are Microsoft and Amazon um another one I think has some more downside is meta uh meta just broke the 21 Day for the first time in a while I'm looking for it to potentially go toward the 50 504 and then we'll see maybe 490 uh that is a name that I think has some downside um if I'm looking to go if I'm looking for some stocks to cherry pick here I'm looking at Microsoft and I'm looking at Amazon Amazon's been pretty much kind of stuck it had a really nice Friday gapped higher uh kind of a at least you would call this a harami um I am liking Amazon to go up uh that might be your one out of the mag s that's really kind of interesting and then a name that I am watching very very closely after a very ugly day is Qualcomm um might be time to take a very hard look at this one that's another fun one for me to trade um so that that's kind of where we are and where markets are on the week I think things are going to go potentially a little bit lower maybe significant lower um the move invol was pretty strong on not a lot of news and when the vix is at 20 we're pricing it about one and a quarter percent one and a third percent move every single day so you have to be prepared for some volatility all right folks again I want you to join me in trading desk uh we put we had a banger of an XSP trade today and a banger of a vix trade today uh pretty much offset the svix uh you know us getting uh trading that backbone strategy I actually think we're about to get a major breakout in asix here be prepared uh and I am uh pretty excited so uh if you want to join us call my team 888872 3301 uh email supported option.com or click this link if you're watching me on YouTube like subscribe and uh leave a question I promise you we will answer it all right Traders AG I am Mark Sebastian I am your only option I hope you have a great rest of your trading day have a good one