College Football Week 1 BEST BETS AND PICKS | The Early Edge

Fading or Following transfer heavy teams in Week 1 [Music] welcome to the early Edge college football pick show brought to you by bmgm the sports book born in Vegas I am your host Eric Cohen college football is back the best time of the year is here and let's get going time to bring in the stars of the show and quite simply he is one of the best sports betting Minds on the planet he is known as M squared Mike McClure we'll get to Arizona Kansas State talk in a few weeks our next expert is not only a former college football player at Louisiana Lafayette but he is as sharp as they come he's already nailed to 13 and a half Point underdogs on sportsline.com and both nearly won outright in week zero it is Emory hunt and finally the man who I consider the most entertaining college football expert on TV from North Carolina it's Chip Patterson all right chip we're GNA start with you if you had a Florida State College football playoff ticket would you rip it up and make it confetti right now no absolutely not until we get to see Clemson against Georgia we get to see Miami against the Florida Gators until we see the rest of that conference get out there absolutely not because while Florida state does not have a team or a squad that I think is going to be able to go 11- one the rest of the way I mean I mean a two- lost team could win the ACC so I going to hold off on thinking Florida State can't make it because Florida State can still win the Atlantic Coast Conference all right emry I don't want to spoil the end of the show where we're giving our dog of the week but give me one non power for Underdog to watch this weekend oh wow that that's a vast number so I'm going to probably say the one we're going to talk about later and we'll get into the reasons why and that's Sam Houston and rice all right M Square do you have a tip for how to play totals in week one as they seem more unpredictable than spreads they can definitely be more unpredictable for me I'm looking to live bet a lot of totals uh so typically you've got scripted drives right coming out of a locker room there's no time that it's more true than week one you've definitely practiced opening drivve so I like to look for live unders after watching scores on opening drives in week one of college football that is a Savvy take and I'm already learning and we're two minutes into the show all right let's start with our first college football storyline of week one can we trust transfer heavy teams early in the season or are they in autof fade until they prove themselves chip we'll start with you uh Auto fade or are we just going to trust the uh random players combined together well yeah they are definitely not an auto fade I mean you've got teams like you know the old Miss Rebels you've got teams like Louisville that do go heavy on the portal but you know early in the season also have a schedule that sets up for you to be able to stack a couple of wins on top of each other figure things out on the fly but what you're getting at with this question is something that I think showed up in Florida State's loss to Georgia Tech because Florida State looked like a team that did not know what it had while Georgia Tech bringing back so much from last year's Bowl team they knew exactly what their strengths and weaknesses were they didn't try to do anything out of the norm I mean they played at such a slow pace and Tempo that that was the least amount of possession in an FBS game since 2020 I mean we had a service Academy game and it's because Georgia Tech knew it just had to keep it between the ditches and it would have a chance to win Florida State looked like they were grasping at straws a little bit so you know don't autof fade them but especially when you get them against somewhat similar competition definitely take into consideration what the transfers or a transfer heavy team might have to do in terms of working The Kinks out emry how do you feel about that are you trusting some of these teams that are kind of a mash unit where they're putting players from different you know Colorado for example do you trust them early on with a bunch of new players there's a couple of things that factor at play for me is one Talent matters so regardless of talent talent will find a way to do what talent does and second I don't want to put too much emphasis on week zero and week one because you've had all spring and all summer to prepare for that first game of the season so a lot of these games will be a lot closer and it'll be a struggle match for both teams cuz again you have so much prep going into one thing and yes continuity is King which is why you tend to like guys that have a lot of starters returning especially on the offensive line and in the secondary but you don't want to go overhand in One Direction on either one of these three points I just made M squared when it comes to what we see with some of these teams that are are putting together these players how do you feel about betting them in week one are they staya aways or are you like all right hey I trust the players I've seen what they can do before time to bet them yeah so I would say there's not a blanket answer across the board every situation is certainly unique uh I think the thing that's really important is what Emory hit on here transfers matter at certain positions right so if I'm talking about a new Elite top tier quarterback coming in a new Elite skill position player I'm not worried at all they're there for a reason because of the talent where I would be starting to get concerned is if we're talking about makeshift offensive lines things like that that is where the trouble is so I'm looking to back and bet on transfer portal heavy squads that offering new skill position players big names as long as they've got the continuity on the offensive line that is where games are still one and lost especially early in the season here so I think that as long as you're looking at solid offensive lines and again as Emy mentioned defensive backs can also be critical in certain matchups but for me it's about the offensive line mostly so talking about like a team like Miami right new quarterback new running back do not care at all uh I I think that you want to embrace that volatility and look to back teams in those spots and we will talk Plus Odd Teams to Make the College Football Playoffs about Miami in a few segments very interesting to see what a lot of you think about them actually we're going to talk about them right now because now that college football week one is here who are two teams that you think will make the playoffs at plus money Amry I'm gonna start with you because you have the longest shot on the board of everyone with USC why do you like the Trojans Dean lint two words right there that was easy and when you look at what Jal muhamd can do under Dean ly what he did last year with UC La I know he had Leu latu and the Murphy guys up front a lot of talent but they really slowed down USC's offense if the guys buy in to what he is selling them defensively they'll be much better again you don't have to be top five defense you just can't be bottom 135 defense so if they just get up to 70 with their offense they're they're going to put up a lot of points and I know a lot of people are talking about what they did in the bowl game that should give you a lot of calm and they've added more Talent as well and we know they are excellent on special team so USC is a fly in the ointment in my opinion they get to the postseason as well as the Miami Hurricanes and I'm looking at Miami and Kansas State here for my we we'll talk about Miami first they've hit the transfer portal really like no other team when you talk about the number and just the magnitude I think they've got the best combination of quarterback running back in the ACC and I think they get a pretty friendly schedule overall you look at the schedule they play Florida State later they they get all this time to sort things out if they get by week one in the swamp you also notice a big name there is missing they don't even play Clemson this season I love this Miami team I have them favored in every single game here and then moving to Kansas State same story just an absolutely beautiful setup for the Kansas State Wildcats they lost their quarterback will Howard but they didn't really lose him he got run out of town by a Johnson a legitimate Heisman Contender but you look at the new look big 12 Texas and Oklahoma are gone now looking at this schedule here they play Oklahoma State of course but they get them at home they don't play the front runner in the conference the newcomer in Utah they play their rival Kansas at home as well I think this is a great spot to back them I think Avery Johnson once again a legitimate Heisman Contender uh but if this team gets through that Colorado game we're talking about a Kansas State team that's probably going to win 10 or 11 games here and find themselves in the college football playoff all right we already got two mentions for Miami and all the talent they brought in through the transfer portal we've talked about the transfer portal too much and let me just put on my Dabo sweatshirt right now and tell you this is too much portal talk so the Clemson Tigers at plus money I think is an incredible value to make the college football playoff because I think the Clemson Tigers are going to win the ACC and I think the Clemson Tigers are going to win a lot of football games I don't know about winning against Georgia in week one but as this team progresses down the rest of the year what we are going to see is a continuation of the end of last season because Clemson had to throw a lot of young players Into the Fire early and so yes they had their stumbling blocks along the way they didn't start good they had some close losses including to eventual ACC Champion Florida State but they finished the year 5-0 with wins against Notre Dame South Carolina and Kentucky and so I think the Tigers who grew up across last year are going to keep it rolling I like Clemson to make the college football playoff and finally I am just not going to sell Michigan football stock I think that Michigan despite losing 13 players to the NFL draft has proven over the last three to four years that they have Elite Player Development because a lot of those players that went to the NFL draft I mean it's not like their rival Ohio State it's not like Georgia or Alabama they don't all come in as five stars Michigan just don't recruit like that but they develop you both physically and in terms of your Technique on the field so I think that Michigan is not going to have you know a team that blows you out of the water especially offensively but there just are not many teams in the country that can block that defensive line led by Kenneth Grant and Mason Graham and so I think it'll be a lot of lows scoring games very defensive run the football but I think Michigan can do that enough to make it back to the playoff you know chip it's a lot easier when you know what plays are coming which has been some of the allegations against Michigan I'm not sure they do this year okay that's fair but I I hate agreeing with you I actually agree with all of you I I like Miami as well but Clemson is the first team that I'm looking at at plus 175 here nine returning starters on offense and let's be honest regardless what happens this weekend against Georgia if they get blown out does them zero harm whatsoever I think davo though he doesn't believe in transfers will find a way to contend in the ACC Florida State showed what they were last week Auto fade and then in the Big 12 I hate going against my alma moer who will talk about many times on this program the University of AR Iona but I'm going with Utah at plus 200 sorry Mike uh veteran quarterback and defense cam Rising back for his seventh season only two tough road games at Oklahoma State and at Central Florida not really that concerned I mean that game on on September 28th that's a that's a big deal but no Kansas State on the schedule very well might meet the Wildcats uh in the Big 12 Championship Game come later this year should be fascinating and we will talk about this often as we go along uh as the season goes along all right make sure if you are not a Sportsline member what are you waiting for make sure to join today for Best Bets and model picks and we have a code that is better than any code that's offered right now on the site use promo code winners for 60% off an annual plan it's the best deal you can find right now on the internet on tv anywhere for sportsline.com you're going to want to see all these great picks that are coming up this season now coming up next a top 15 battle where points might be at a premium we'll make our top picks here on on the early Edge college football pick [Music] show welcome back to the early Edge we have waited nine months and it's time for a Full Slate in college football and let's start off with the Marquee matchup of the weekend Clemson in Georgia in Atlanta let's get right away I mean we Games of The Week have a lot of different picks on this game I like where our heads are at but we're going to start with emry who's Clemson-Georgia Picks going with a different take as far as an underdog emry why do you like Clemson well again I alluded to it in the first segment where you had all week all spring all summer to prepare for Georgia and these two teams kind of know each other rather well dabble kind of recruits like Georgia and Alabama at one point in time where we're talking about Clemson as one of these dynasties in college football couple of national championships and if you're Georgia you definitely want to win this ball game because no one wants to hear that davo post-win press conference because he is going to ler it on real thick but in this ball game this is a show me game it should have been held in Missouri because you have two quarterbacks I feel like have to show me something you have Carson Beck for Georgia you also have Klay kumnick for Clemson I feel like we should see a close game definitely under this 13 and a half point spread so I am taking Clemson and the points here Mike this is a tough game to pick I I really went back and forth on this one you're taking a unique angle at it as far as a team total which way are you leaning yeah I'm going to be backing Clemson's team total under 17 a half and it's not to say that I don't like Clemson plus 13 and a half I certainly think both of those plays could hit obviously the full game under would as well but when you look at Clemson and the style of play here I look Kate kumnick I think he's fine but I think he's far from Elite in terms of throwing the football down the field especially against this defense if Clemson wants to win this game they know they're not winning aame that requires them to score 30 points right they're winning a game that is a slower defensive game that's kind of played at the line of scrimmage and with that clock running I think they're still going to run the ball quite a bit with mafa and I personally think Beck has a lot to prove on the Georgia side as well we've seen that teams start slow a number of times I also don't think they're going to ask him to be a hero I think that Georgia is more than content to go in and win this game by seven points and play a really controlled style of game here so I like the under 17 and a half I think that having three touchdowns from Clemson probably not going to happen against this defense uh so I'm looking at this one I love the fact that I can have a Clemson game where it's like a 3117 kind of game and we still cash this under on the Clemson Tigers music to my ears we are going to agree on some picks we are going to disagree on some picks but gentlemen I would argue that when I hear some of the points especially coming from one of the sharpest Minds around Mike McClure that line up with a lot of my starting points in my pick that's only going to make me more emboldened in my position because I agree Clemson does not want to make any mistakes early they want to run the football with Phil mafa they probably want to shorten this game and they want to make sure that they don't have any turnovers you remember Clemson was one of the worst teams in the country in terms of turnovers fumbles lost so Red Zone fumbles lost they want to take care of things they just want to be able to lean on their defense which I do think is the more talented side of the ball and I also think that Georgia is more than content to make this a four quarter game which is why I'm going to be targeting the first half under 24 and a half and of course we got a key number there at 24 I will also note that Davos Sweeney historically will kick more field goals punt in plus territory not exactly a risk taker especially in big games and Clemson's kicker is a true freshman who will be making his first Collegiate start so I see all of that leading to uh less possessions in terms of Leaning On The Run game not taking a lot of risks and then even when you get in scoring opportunities Clemson may be settling for field goals along the way just trying to get points where you can get them uh so I think slow start to a noon kickoff indoors in the big body bz first half under chip I think that is a great pick I am playing the full game under at 49 49 A5 whatever number you want to give me I may buy it down some more listen when these two teams played in 2021 the week one final was 10 to3 and no offensive touchdowns were scored ouch these are two Elite defenses and I have less Faith right now in the Clemson offense and by the way the first Power for team that Georgia has played since 2017 has averaged eight points a game that really plays into M squar team total plays into your first half under and of course my full game under and one thing I love to do when making picks here is score predictions on each game some you may think are crazy this one feels pretty realistic Georgia 27 Clemson 10 all right a big game in the state of Florida Miami and Florida two teams that should meet every single year as for some reason they don't but now they are this year in the swamp really Miami - Florida Picks intriguing game Mike I think this is a fun game in that we're seeing two senior quarterbacks cam Ward with Miami Graham Ms for Florida how do you see it playing out you know I think Miami's clearly got the better quarterback here I think cam Ward is one of the best quarterbacks in college football frankly I think he's extremely Dynamic and will be in this offense but to me the story is just all of the transfers we've seen Miami consistently really underperform whether it's because of on the field execution by Personnel coaching decisions whatever it is there is a negative connotation around this Miami football program in certain spots and there's an extremely positive connotation around the swamp it yes it is one of the more difficult places to go win a football football game but this Florida team in my opinion is nowhere near Peak Florida teams they could be by the end of the season absolutely no doubt there but I like this Miami team I think that they're going to be extremely hard to stop you talk about taking deep shots down the field I think this team's going to move the football methodically down the field I think they're going to play this literally 10 yards at a time because I think they have the Personnel to do it uh with the running back situation and with Cam Ward at quarterback so I love the price point here you can find it as low as minus 130 as high as minus 152 in some places in the market just a wild difference uh but I think this number should be closer to minus 170 I think they should be a minus four and a half Point favorite so I'll take Miami here in the swamp yeah I'm right there with you Mike I love Miami in this ball game they just a better team across the board offensively and defensively cam Ward is my number two quarterback in the 2025 NFL draft behind the clearcut number one shadur Sanders and when you have a quarterback that can enhance an offense when you have two great tail backs in Martinez and Fletcher as well this team can beat you in a multitude of ways but the matchup I'm more interested in is this Hurricane's defensive front versus this Florida offensive line I do think gr merch is very underrated has gotten better over the last two years of his career in Florida and also the last time we saw him in Wisconsin so I feel like he's going to make some throws he can throw on the move he throws a lot of uh intermediate passes rather well but will that offensive line be able to hold Miami can those transfers come in and have and hit the ground running for the Hurricanes but I do like them overall yes it'll be a nice environment for for them but at the end of the day the better team will still win I think that's Miami we are going over five and a half players leaving with the cramps we are going over let's see 89 and a half play fans passed out in the stands for a 330 midafternoon kickoff 90° 70% humidity partly cloudy yikes I see explosive plays on explosive plays you got too many athletes on the field both of these teams have so much at stake I think there's going to be a lot of mistakes made I think this game could get very dumb and I think that those mistakes will lead to scores just because of the potential that you have but the thing that I'm watching is Miami's pace and Tempo because shaneon Dawson their offensive coordinator has a coaching history that includes playing with a little bit of uptempo pace Miami did not do as much last year but I think it's because of the lack of faith that they had in the quarterback play that is not the case with Cam Ward I think if Miami pushes the pace well then they're going to really run up this scoring they're going to force grah Merz to take more shots down field who knows maybe even we see DJ lague so uh in a game that I am fascinated to see how it plays out the only thing I'm the most confident in is this going to be hot sweaty dumb and over the total boy chip I would love to play some prop bets on some of those other uh totals that you just gave us there fans passed out in the stands players going off with cramps I'll let you keep track of that and report back next week how we did on on those overs but actually I love your your game over at 54 and a half uh which defense is going to show up I think both offenses should be electric with veteran QBs I think it's really interesting that that Emory said that cam Ward is his number two ranked quarterback in the 2025 class Carson back nowhere to be seen I we'll talk about that as the season goes along Kim word really Dynamic player and I think he's gonna have a really good season the Billy Napier downfall at Florida starts on Saturday Miami 34 Florida 31 I agree with all of you uh oh uh we're not done with the week one top matchups two more ranked versus ranked games both involving the SEC shocker find out next on the early Edge college football pick show [Music] back on the early Edge fun storyline in College Station this weekend new Texas A&M coach Mike Elco faces his former quarterback at Duke Riley Leonard who transferred to Notre Dame this should be an interesting one but we'll start with Notre Dame - Texas A&M Picks with Mike's play here you're going with the over and and is a defensive coach Marcus Freeman's a defensive coach and yet you're taking you think it's going to be a higher scoring game why yeah defensive coaches we're going to hear the narrative all the time about facing the quarterback that you you coached right I think that's overblown when you talk about being a transfer going to a new program to me this is a team this is a matchup where the teams are relatively evenly matched now Kyle Field does offer a significant home field advantage for Texas A&M but to me it's really just a math play a market movement play here right you see we've seen this game as high as 50 a half in the market it's been bet down to 46 A2 that's moved through incredibly key numbers in totals in college football 48 51 52 and 49 four of the most common numbers for a college football game especially when you get a point spread of a field goal or less to me it's moved too far I think the correct number should have been that 48 482 range uh now that we're down below that I think we get a competitive game I think this is one you should rule out the potential of overtime as well just the style of play here I think we're going to get a back and forth game but I think the fact is Riley Leonard is still an upgrade I have questions about the offensive line we all do we've seen how they lost some big names to the NFL draft but I think they're going to be able to move the football and I think that it's just overstated the fact that you've got these two defensive mindes on the field uh and the market has reacted far too much I will go back the other way over 46 and a half emry I'm really big on and M this season I actually think they're going to make the college football playoff and somehow sneak into that top 12 but let's start this week and you agree well I think the other three of us agree on the same pick you're lik an A&M to beat Notre Dame and cover with the field goal why well one every year there is a quarterback that gets un lofty first round hype one year was toleran dyke next year was Will Levis last year was Riley Leonard I have to see it first guys and one person that knows how that looks is Mike Elco so in this matchup yes it does matter to me because what Texas A&M will do is make Ry Leonard beat them throwing the football they didn't throw a lot at Duke they were able to man the line of scrimmage dominate the point of attack run the football play efficient in the passing game you kind of think that's what Notre Dame wants to do and we'll see if r l can deal with the pressure but I like Mike Elco and the fit at A&M because it reminds me so much of how everyone loves the triple option and how effective it is but what happens when you give the triple option five star athletes we saw that before with Nebraska in the 90s that's what it looks like so if you give Mike Elco a great defensive mind Elite five-star Talent up front on defense this will look like the old Wrecking Crew defense of A&M in the late 80s and early 90s so I love A&M in this ball game I think we'll see the physical conversation take place at the point of attack and one that in which A&M will win let the children sing all right so uh agree with almost everything across the board that emry offered so let let's level up just a little bit Notre Dame's depth chart came out love of a depth chart Monday what did I see along Notre Dame's depth chart because as Mike mentioned yes you lost some NFL draft picks but your stud left tackle Charles jagas saww also went down with the season ending injury in Fall Camp so that has left us with an incredible lack of experience how much so their five projected starters have six combined career starts now you're asking that group to go into Kyle Field one of the loudest places in the country and to go up against a defensive line with Shamar Turner Shamar Stewart DJ Hicks and oh yeah one of the best defensive transfer portal pickups in the whole country Nick scorton coming in from Purdue I think this defensive line is going to Feast Notre Dame should be glad they've got a mile mobile quarterback with such good sack avoidance cuz if they had a statue back there this would be an even longer night than it's going to be so the entirety of this game and my handicap of it is Texas A&M's defensive line which is going to be a problem for every team they play going up against an offensive line on the road hostile territory with the lack of experience after that I I just don't need to uh turn back I'm just going to go agies you know I put this on the site chip as a one-unit play after hearing you and emry I kind of want to make it like a five-unit play I I don't want to like mortgage my house here but you guys sold me on this A&M defense I mean I was already sold on M gelo and and the Texas A&M the home field advantage that they have with 105,000 people or whatever they've expanded Kyle Field to I'm all in I think Notre Dame plays a a very easyish schedule the rest of the year outside of a trip to USC at the end of the year and a home game against Florida State we'll see about that but I like A&M here a lot Texas A&M 23 Notre Dame 17 now on Sunday night the rare Sunday night college football game very very rare uh we see the number 23 USC Trojans against the 13th ranked LSU Tigers so both teams lost their starting quarterbacks the NFL draft Caleb Williams won the Heisman a couple years ago went number one to the Bears Jaden Daniels won the Heisman last year went number two to the commanders now seeing our experts split on this game uh chip emry you know I'll start with you on this one because you're going with the money line here you're going you're taking a stand with UFC why I love Miller Moss I love J muhamad USC - LSU Picks I love Dean ly I love The Playmakers in speed that we see at USC in the backfield Marx comes over from Mississippi State we already know about Branch you know about the pum return skills he brings to the table as well so they have a lot of talent and we know the offense will score with LSU although I feel like LSU is a fly in the ointment team this year based off the offensive line two Elite tackles that they have and I think they're run the ball and their tight end play will look a lot like what Brian Kelly used to do at Notre Dame because you lose two outstanding first round talents at wide receiver you lose a highman trophy winner at quarterback that was a dual threat guy that gave you a chance to win every game and now you toss in a lot of unknown Garrett NM I know he's getting that that lofty hype that we just talked about with these with like five other quarterbacks but I still have to see it from him I know he did well in the bowl game but considering all who opted out and what happened in that bowl game listen I am taking us to go out there set the tone remind people hey we still have USC tight talent and now we got a much better defense than we had last year I'm I like them to win this game outright yeah I I like where your head's at here the thing that I would Spotlight is that while LSU changed its defensive coordinator going out and get Blake Baker from Missouri they did not have a lot of notable additions particularly in the secondary that makes me think that this Tigers defense is going to be notably less leaky I mean the way that teams were able to just move the ball through the air against this LSU secondary was so significant by the end of the year that you were just firing team totals all day in cash and tickets and so I think of an elite mind like Lincoln Riley going in there and trying to figure out ways that they're going to get matchup advantages for Zack Branch for Duce Robinson for the rest of these USC skill players and Miller Moss really has a handle of what Lincoln Riley wants to do a little bit of X Factor here what is one of the new rules or I should say new adjustments we've got that headset communication and what I'm thinking about which coaches are going to be able to help their quarterbacks out the most it's not always going to be here's where you've got the guaranteed pass but it can be here's what you want to avoid when you see this watch out and do this and I think that that's where Lincoln Riley that he's been coaching it all through the spring offseason and the fall I think that he's going to help Miller Moss be the best version of himself and we're going to see USC would not be surprised if they win but at a key number like four I'll take the points so Mike uh LSU has not won a season opener since Joe burrow was playing quarterback in their National Championship season of 2019 does that concern you that I know it's meaningless history however as we go into week one of 2024 yeah it's completely meaningless history for me personally uh you know I think this matchup is fascinating right because I like LSU in this game I don't love LSU for the full season and I'm much higher on USC for the rest of the season I think USC is going to compete in a lot of games in the Big 10 but I think this matchup is one that's interesting so when you look at what's being replaced on both sides we have major question marks at quarterback I think that Miller Moss USC is probably going to step in and find the stride maybe even quicker than nus me but I like the offensive line continuity for LSU return four starters on that offensive line a three-year starter at tight end and I think they're going to be able to run the football here because I think that USC still has a ton of question marks on the defensive side of the ball so while we've seen LSU as a highflying team I think they may not want to get into the track meet quite as much as they have in years past and I think some of that will be because of the changes on the defensive side of the ball I know that it is a big leap to say that this team is going to be great defensively I'm not saying that at all but I think in this kind of a matchup we might finally see an LSU team that at least kind of resembles an SEC defense at times here I think it's a big philosophy change at LSU here I think it's going to lead to a lot of close games whether or not they can win those one score games that remains to be seen but I think in this spot with that offensive line they will not have trouble moving the football uh so for that reason I will be on LSU here minus 4 it's kind of crazy after the last few years watching these two offenses how Dynamic they've been to talk about defense so I'm going to take a stand here this is a lean but I'm going under 64 and a half 63 and a half 64 and a half somewhere in that ball Park either one of them fine with me uh they're two de two new defensive coordinators that will make a difference right away we've talked about those those guys deanon Lynn moving from UCLA to USC by the way I hate when when coaches or players transfer go from one school to their rival the next a whole another story anyways while the offenses are good both teams lost a lot of talent from what they had the previous couple seasons including as we talked about Williams and Daniels I talked about LSU not winning a season opener W you throw that out the window close game a little bit lower scoring than the than the total LSU 30 USC 27 so we've gone through the Marquee games of the week but now it's time to see our Best Bets in week one this is where the money is made find out next after this short [Music] break it is time for our Best Bets here on the early Ed we're all starting with a clean slate but getting off to a fast startus key and listen I mean I'm going up against the best of the best here I need to make these picks count all right Mike we're going to start with you give us one play that you absolutely love this week we have not talked about the Best Bets for College Football Week 1 Miami Hurricanes enough here I love Miami week one on the road in the swamp uh minus 130 minus 135 I think this price point should be minus 170 uh continue to play it I've played this for multiple units already and going to continue to add on on game day I love this Miami team I think cam W is one of the best quarterbacks in college football they've got one of if not the best running back as well and they've just got loaded Talent on both sides of the ball I think this is a great time to back Miami I think that they're in the college football playoff talk for a reason I've got them favored in every single game here we're not talking about significant travel in week one they're very comfortable in the heat they prepare in it all the time that angle is a little overblown in my opinion in this spot so I love Miami against the Florida Gators in the swamp I think this Florida Gator team which has a team total of four in a half I think it's set there for a reason I think this is a team that is maybe going to scratch to a bow game if they overperform but they're not grabbing this win against Miami I'll play them here on the money line I'm going Western Kentucky at Alabama and Chip knows what I'm about to say because it's funny how long we've been talking about this dude since 2020 but big ponchatula TJ is at Western Kentucky one of the strongest arms in college football did a great job with Texas State last year before they had the whole transfer issue with a quarterback coming in and then he transferred out and goes to Western Kentucky where they're going to let him throw the football like he did at Texas State leading those guys to their first bowl game in program history you got jayen milro exciting player Heisman finalist in my opinion a guy that can also throw the football deep keep an eye on this Bama secondary I think that's going to be one where we're going to have to closely watch how they do this season so plus 31 A2 Alabama under saving never really you know covered these big spreads like this and when you factor in a team coming off the spring and summer practicing for Alabama secondary and with a shotgun armed quarterback give me Western Kentucky plus 31 and a half I'm going to go Target a total in Austin as Texas gets a much hyped season going against Colorado State and the key for me in trying to go over the number is that I think Colorado State can score because what Colorado state has is at quarterback specifically with Braden fower Nicolosi and at wide receiver with Tory Horton is they have power conference quality players and so I think that the Rams are going to be able to go into this game and while if they aren't able to score early I think they're going to be able to score late because Texas might want to rotate through a lot of bodies it's going to be real hot for this midday kickoff there in Austin and so I think eventually you want to get your backups in there and defensively I think Texas is going to miss a lot of those key players that are gone from last year's Big 12 title team I'm going Stanford plus 9 and a half in a late night special on Friday night against TCU the Cardinal returned six of their top uh seven tacklers on defense they're starting quarterback top three receivers top two rushers and all five offensive linemen they are one of the most experienced teams in the country now TCU is upgraded on defense and I'll never doubt the offense with sunny dkes but this one has a little late night Magic maybe all right we'll just say TCU 35 Stanford 30 a comfortable cover at plus N9 and a half all right Mike you talked about this pick earlier in the show the over in College Station we talked about Elco in defense and yet you're still playing the over one of your Best Bets yeah like the over it's just a market play here E look it's 46 and a half it's down from 50 to 50 and a half and that gets you home in a 2720 kind of game which I think is an extremely realistic outcome when these two teams get together you talk about the defensive side of the ball you can still score points with defense we're talking short Fields we're talking turnovers we could see a very early turnover in this game that leads to a quick score I think this game does ultimately go back and forth though the market is simply overreacted in this particular spot these two teams are still going to be able to move the football in certain ways but again just a market play I'll go over 46 and a half I'm going lay the 9 and a half with Oklahoma State over the two-time reigning FCS National Champion South City if this game was after a big game then I would be all over the Jack rabit but I do like the Cowboys with 20 returning starters to get the job done one more total from me as we go to the big house it's not the debut of the sh more era because uh yeah EC I remember your comment from the beginning of this show they beat Penn State and Ohio State after C never mind we don't need to deal with that so I think that this Michigan team is going to run the football and play great defense and I don't think there's a lot of teams that are going to be able to score many points against this Michigan defense and I don't know if Fresno State's going to be able to score any points against this Michigan defense so look for me in a lot of these matchups where Michigan is going to be a heavy favorite not to Target uh Michigan covering that spread because I don't know if their motivation is going to be to run the score up just to run the ball play it safe punt when they need to and so I think a lot of unders are in the Wolverine's future starting in week one well we'll see if they have the G the offensive game plan for Fresno State that should certainly help your under uh I think we're past that with Jim Harbaugh gone all right Mike has a total that's over in the state of Texas chip has a total that's over in the state of Texas well I got to fit in here it's week one I'm going UNLV Houston over 54 and a half Houston with Willie Fritz from Tain is projected as one of the worst teams in the Big 12 but veteran quarterback and Donovan Smith who threw for 26 touchdowns and ran for six last year UNLV lost their quarterback and running back but they scored 30 or more points in 10 of 14 games last year new quarter I mean they have some potential with some of their new quarterbacks go go offense under Brennan Maran a lot of points UNLV 38 Houston 28 now my favorite segment is coming up which week one favorites are on upset alert find out who we fading coming up next welcome back to the early Edge which week one favorites should you fade it is time for our dog of the week who is barking the loudest I have to say I you know I say it said it multiple times I'm Dogs of the Week a University of Arizona Alum and therefore my rival is Arizona State and therefore Mike McClure has the best pick on the show this week and square tell us your dog of the week it's going to be Wyoming against Arizona State I like Wyoming for the upset on on the money line like them with the six and a half that they're getting now I make this game a field goal I I think that this is a very evenly matched match up here I think you put these two in certain situations it's truly a pick them when you talk about Wyoming you talk about a team that's going through a coaching change but it is not an unfamiliar face right it's the defensive coordinator sliding over to take that job he's been with this school for four years there as the defensive coordinator I think this is a team that's going to be dangerous I think there's a reason this wasn't scheduled as a home in home when you talk about Wyoming this team is dangerous on the road you look at what they did last year taking Texas tied to the fourth quarter early in the season I think this team is going to be able to run the football you talk about DJ Jones coming in from North Carolina a guy that's played on both sides of the ball in his college career just an incredibly skilled player overall but I think that they're going to win the line of scrimmage I think it's going to be an old school AAP kind of game where they're just going to run the football down your throat and I think Wyoming has the skill set to do it so I like them here on the money line over Arizona State there's a lot of great things to go over right red bean scramble eggs and Sam Houston the Bearcats overwrites in this opener I like them to win straight up last year Jacksonville State and Sam Houston both jumped into the FBS Jacksonville State was a little bit ahead of the curve and we used to joke about them while back call them transfer State University because they had a lot of transfers right they always do that but now Sam Houston when you watched them last year they were really good defensively they couldn't score the ball until late in the season they figured it out and now you add an improved offensive line veteran guards in the guard the defense is still solid fundamentally sound I think they go into Houston and shock the rice owls I'm going to take you to Hawaii which is going to be playing host to UCLA on CBS that's right the big CBS America's most watched Network the network of stars and what I like about this game is that Timmy chain did not do anything against Delaware State well he played about everybody on the dagum roster you might say but Hawaii didn't cover the spread I said they had a spring game Playbook they just wanted to get everybody a sweat they wanted to run through a couple things but they did not want to show anything I think it's a brand new game plan brand new playbook and I think Hawaii is live to hand Desa Foster a loss in the first game of the Bruins era chip I wish you had told me about the spring game Playbook before I played the first half over in a late night special on Saturday did not go well for me all right the most overhyped team in college football are the Colorado Buffalo North Dakota state has won six of their last seven against FBS teams they are plus 260 in Boulder this week on on Friday it is on Thursday they have a fifth year starting quarterback in cam Miller they have nine of 12 All Conference players back Dion Sanders is too busy whining about the media watch out you're about to get bitten North Dakota State 33 Colorado 30 chip am I crazy with that pick yes I think Colorado is gonna run him but good luck that was a lot of fun guys looking forward to doing this each week this fall for chip Patterson Emery hunt and Mike McClure I am Eric Cohen thanks for watching and as I always like to say let's hit it big good luck