Weak Jolts Report! But Markets Hover. Market Update. 4SEP. Technical Analysis of SPY and More!

Intro hi everyone today let's talk about the jolts job openings then we'll take a look at all the usual data and charts do me a quick favor and like And subscribe and watch the video till the end to help out the channel and let's get started so JOLTS Data the jobs report fell a lot more than expected and it was not good so we've been seeing the labor market continue to soften and this is another iteration of that we can see jobs slumping to their lowest level in 3 and 1/2 years which fell down to 7.67 million in the month of July just 137 off of its June downwardly revised number and the lowest level since January of 21 economists were looking for 8.1 million or about half a million more jobs but of course we are not getting that and now with this most recent decline the jobs number is less than 1.1 almost a 1:1 ratio down from its peak of a 2:1 ratio so jobs Market has sufficiently cooled and it makes sense that we are going to get that rate cut in September this was the other metric that the Fed was looking for and sure enough it's now come in to a reasonable level and it's also worth talking about layoffs increasing 1.76 million up 202,000 from June total separations jumped by 363,000 pushing the separation Force to 3.4 so the big takeaway for me is that the labor market continues to weaken and the question is does this translate to the numbers on Friday this is what we are looking for the expectation is a 4.2% down from a 4.3% but if we we get a 4.4% number or something like that markets are going to hate that and sell off dramatically in my opinion last time it jumped it went down a lot and this could be an early warning that it could happen again moving over to fear and Fear & Greed greed we stepped down to a 53 from a 65 so substantial selloff here we're still hovering right at these highs and lows from June July time frame so it hasn't sold off a ton but it was a pretty significant step down and usually when you get these big moves there is some follow through on that so something to consider momentum did hover a little bit at these previous highs back from the end of July we'll take a look at that on the markets strength hovering is well and neutral breath has been in extreme greed and that is not a great indicator especially with markets at these levels expecting that to go down over the next couple days and then put call ratio continues to elevate slowly back into fear vix continuing to elevate as well hovering here today and then Safe Haven demand expecting this to continue to Trend lower as we see bonds outperform over the next 20 days and then looking at junk bond demand extreme fear here makes sense people are concerned about a weakening job market and a weakening economy which is very bad for the junk bond market moving over to the economic Economic Calendar calendar here you can see the numbers for today Factory orders 5% a little better than expected jolts report way weaker than that 8.1 million expectation and then looking at Atlanta fed a little better there 2.1 versus the two and then for tomorrow initial jobless claims another precursor to the data on Friday we also get some economic data here similar to what we got on Monday markets did not like that so if that comes in week that's not going to be great all of these are expected to be above that 50 Mark which is bullish but it'll be interesting to see what we actually get and then fed balance sheet that's been hovering here over the past couple weeks and then don't forget Friday is the big one with that unemployment rate coming out at 8:30 moving over to max pain 551 Max Pain Max pay's 555 still have the call Wall there still have the put wall at 550 so we're kind of stuck in here now C wall also at 560 we'll see if we get a little bit of a bounce from that 550 area I think it could push through there bottom of the calls is 549 so not a ton of downside potential this week doesn't mean we can't Spike down and then come back but a 550 to 560 finish makes sense moving over to the charts starting over SPY starting with the snps you can see down about .16 retested this level sold off momentum still bearish RSI still bearish it is hovering a little bit here but this still looks like a consolidation down move just a hesitation here at that 21 EMA at 5504 next level for me would be vwap and this highly traded Zone around that 5464 area really can't be too bullish while this momentum is continuing to Trend down here in bearish momentum need to see this kind of culminate like this and start to Trend back to bullish then you can start to think about it and then once it does that usually get these kind of Ripper moves so right now definitely leaning to the bearish side and looking at the shorter time frames here you can see we did get a little bit of continuation lower test tested my level at 5512 double tapped that at the end of the session caught a little bit of a balance but selling again from that 21 EMA that seems to be resistance now on the hourly chart that's at 55115 as this continues to Trend lower we'll probably see this Zone break and then your Trend support is down here at 54511 maybe we tap that and then see a little bit of a bounce based on that max pain pricing but either way you can see same setup looks like we're going to sell at least a little bit more over the next day or two moving over to the tasty SPY Tasty charts for the snps I'd be looking for that ATR trailing stop as your price Target that is 45147 so again that's about another 2% down move momentum continues to roll to bearish here and then looking at that 4our chart you can see that lowest ATR band that's your near-term price Target that is going to be 54625 looking for that zone there not a huge volume day interesting to see that but we're hovering in flat we talked about how this might kind of pull back in time but realistic I'm expecting more selling here on the Spy moving over to the NASDAQ similar thesis we had a trend QQQ here we G through it retested selling off two days of bearish momentum you can see the clear retest of the SMA selling off probably has a lot more downside based on this chart I'd be looking for that 200 SMA sitting down at 18,100 we talked about this yesterday really no change to the thesis that's about 42% lower and then if that level breaks here then you're looking for this trend which is about 6 and 3/4 to about 7% lower back into this consolidation from mid April so everything looks pretty terrible across markets at least in the short term and then moving over to the shorter time frames here you can see on the hourly chart got the big down move on Tuesday got a little bit of a retrace hit that 21 EMA held a slightly higher low here from that pre-market low think that's going to be shortlived though you can see it's already selling off after hours I would guess there's going to be some follow-through on that move couldn't get above this lobe from back here on Wednesday tested that 46450 level almost to the penny High day was 46445 so that's why it's important to have these levels touched it almost retested here and then sold off and now we're getting more sell off after hour so expecting more continuation on that to the downside in terms of levels 458 24 is my next one you can see we bottomed out right there after hours in the pre-market this morning again critical to have these levels and then the next one 45440 if this Zone breaks which I would guess that it's going to tomorrow moving over to the NASDAQ here on the tasty QQQ Tasty charts you can see that first support is at 45173 on the daily chart still in bearish conditions still looking for a little bit more sell that 144 EMA is sitting there as a zone of support and then if that breaks then your next level is that lowest ATR at 439 56 then looking at that 4 Hour chart you can see that after hour selling coming through 45942 already looking for that lowest ATR band which is currently sitting at 45470 so right in line with that next level make sense looking for a little bit of a sell there we'll see how it plays going into tomorrow's session after we touch that level I do think we're going to get there tomorrow moving IWM DIA over to the Dow and the Russell here the Russell was down .17 really tried to Rally got very close to that level once again high of day was 21537 my level was 21542 so came right up to it rejected we're still holding that 21 EMA there at 21250 after hours we're at 21257 my level is 22 12 10 so a bunch of support in here certainly could still hold this momentum did step to bearish here so that's concerning based on momentum you would expect more follow through probably down to that 144 EMA down at 20587 but we'll see how that plays in tomorrow's session if this starts to Crater it's probably going to go another six points or so and then looking at the Dow managed to stay just barely positive by 17 cents still hanging in there at these previous highs momentum still stepping to bearish probably going to turn bearish either tomorrow or the next day and then RSI might see a retest of that SMA something where you get a dip here like we have seen slight retracement test that level and then break down similar to this you get the breakdown hover retest and then get the bigger sell so looking to see what happens here doesn't look super great clear Divergence looks pretty awful on this chart moving over to the mag 7 this MAG 7 actually hung in there pretty well you can see this kind of triangular setup that we have tested this trend line here bounced from that level stayed positive on the day .1% % momentum is still bearish RSI is still bearish same thesis here SMA trending lower might see a retest in continuation lower so something to watch here that would actually fit with with this kind of technicals Bounce from here retest this upper and then see a bigger breakdown we'll see how it plays right now still hovering in this wedge without clear Direction yet despite this High lower high setup you could still argue low higher low moving over to Apple again AAPL MSFT falling directly to the level here the low of day was 21748 My Level was 21762 so just barely over through it but we're into bearish momentum RSI bearish volume ramped a little bit on that selling we'll see if this Zone holds it could you can see this previous hold if it doesn't we're probably headed down to this trend which is sitting about 7 and 1/2 7 and 3/4% lower let's go ahead and extend out that trend line a little bit which would give you a little bit of support in here around that 20428 area so we'll see how that plays and then looking at Microsoft actually did okay on the day .13 a little bit better than Apple and you can see it actually didn't Wick as low as Apple did momentum still hanging in there RSI still bearish you can see starting to Trend lower so it doesn't look great there but it looks okay a little bit better than I would have guessed I thought this was going to accelerate down here today which it did a little bit especially with my current price Target sitting at 39422 which is my next level here it's hanging in there at this kind of consolidation low from the end of May beginning of June I still think that zone is going to break I still think we're headed down to these two levels down here but it hung in there a little better and don't forget this is still a distribution in my opinion distribution here fake out breakout distribution waiting for this to roll over to the downside you can see on the daily chart we are below all the EMAs andas which is a terrible indicator moving over to Tesla and Nvidia look at TSLA NVDA Tesla here today good breakout clean break above this trend line here should be looking for some more upside momentum bullish RSI back above the SM everything looks good here on Tesla 4.18% on the day back above all the Mas and smas look for some continuation here tomorrow I think this is probably going to follow through at least a little bit hopefully it's not a fake out I do like this setup and then looking at Nvidia down another 1.66% after the terrible day yesterday momentum bearish RSI bearish we'll see how it plays going into the end of tomorrow session 10664 is the level you can see we gapped through it it's testing it here after hours interesting 144 is the price Target 10240 think we're going to touch that at a minimum and then if that zone breaks you can see we're probably headed back down to these previous lows around that 9063 level moving over to Amazon and Google here we AMZN GOOG got Amazon 1.66% to the downside momentum stepping down RSI stepping down breaking the SMA probably going to roll down looking for 10706 as your next zone of support after this 17423 level broke you still got the 200 in there at 1727 7 so that could be interesting clear consolidation of EMAs 21 sitting in there as well zone of support if this breaks that's their next level if it holds this would be a higher low setup from this previous low certainly possible interesting Zone to watch there and then Google this looks terrible it's continued to look terrible we've been watching it for a while expecting this to continue to downtrend your next support would be 15584 and I do expect that to continue momentum just hit bearish conditions now RSI still bearish expect this to hit oversold conditions it's at a 33.85797 XLY XLP strong and then looking at discretionary continues to hover hung in there a little better than I would have guessed at 0 26 still can't get above 18536 also tested the trend still expecting this to fail some decent volume coming in there probably Tesla holding this up we saw Tesla looking very good maybe that's holding up this Market but we'll see this still looks like a breakdown retest looking for that breakdown at least to the 21 EMA down at 18160 moving over to oil and gas and XOP XLU utilities oil and gas continues to Hemorrhage back back to back days down another 1.62% still looking for this trend down here so probably going to continue here down to that 12850 area my level is 128 momentum bearish RSI bearish we thought maybe this would hold this 21 EMA didn't do it broke right through it continuing to sell probably going to keep selling to this previous low and then look at utilities here similar to Staples everything that is safe right now continuing to see that rotation super bullish on the RSI definitely overbought continues to Rocket here towards my 7796 level look at this volume as well everything looks super good so clearly a riskof market people are selling Tech moving into things like utilities and financials moving over to breath this continues to 20 50 SMA Breadth sell off as you would expect we got the continuation candle hit the 21 EMA here on the 20 interesting similar to this here where you sell off touch a Zone very close to my level low of day was 6878 just above my level of 6814 so right in here we'll see if it holds momentum still bearish RS still bearish just like everything 50-day also stepping to bearish for the first time RSI still very bearish waiting to see if this breaks that 50 level 20-day did just barely 50-day has a 5125 on it so waiting to see if that breaks here and still looking for that 21 EMA need to see that 6866 level break on the 50 if it's going to do it right now this is a first test waiting to see what happens DXY moving over to the dollar dollar sold here makes sense with the jts report coming in as it did again means we're closer to that rate cut so the dollar didn't like that a whole lot didn't break the level though didn't break the 9 EMA that's at 10128 and the level is 10125 still holding that zone momentum stepping to bearish we'll see if it has any follow through we're still above the SMA so it's probably not going to Crater still looking for a higher low setup off that 200 on the hourly chart still think the dollar is going to hang in there which is going to be weak for equities moving over to yields we are just 2&10Y Yield centimet out from seeing that normalization of the yield curve apparently it flickered back and forth a little bit I saw some articles saying that we got back into normalized conditions uninversity maybe tomorrow we get a close with normalized conditions but right now we're not yet 10e still hovering at support 3 and 3/4 with the 2-year headed towards my level at 3.66 5 which is right in line with the low from 5 August so makes sense see this sell off to that level tenure hopefully holds in this Zone and then we get that normalized condition moving over to JNK TLT bonds bonds actually recouped a lot of those losses makes sense we talked about this 21 EMA touched that yesterday bounced off that level still could reject from that 9655 level momentum is bearish RSI did move a little bit higher but I would expect it to top out here doesn't look super great on jnk but looking at TLT we did get the continuation after yesterday's candle strong candle here 1.29% % still looking for that 100 price Target needs to eclipse the high from 21 August see how it plays was a pretty shallow dip would expect a higher high to come in my opinion moving over to the vix the vix VIX did go higher 2.99% got all the way to my 22.5 level talked about that getting touched yesterday next Target if we break that 22.5 would be 28.89% Portfolio Thoughts I managed to net about $600 or so maybe $550 somewhere in there which is pretty good considering both markets were bearish on the day Ira was flat $2 really should have made more money there but I rolled up into that strong move ended up having to roll out and down here back to 213 for tomorrow session again $222 $122 really should have made that here today that was a little frustrating but got whipsaw on the Russell looking for that same credit tomorrow and then looking at the cues pretty much the same position here $461 for $281 credit also sold a$ 469 for 5 days from now for $157 only 44 Deltas I think this sold a little bit more after hours down about a dollar so looking for that protection we'll see how it plays in tomorrow's session if that next level breaks look for that 454 area so watching this closely here on both of these let me know down in the comments section what Outro you think of the jolts report and that news that came in today is it going to continue to Drive markets lower is it a precursor to the unemployment data on Friday otherwise like And subscribe if you got any value out of this video and make sure you hit the Bell so you don't miss out on any future episodes of course none of this is financial advice this is all for entertainment purposes good luck in your trading and have a great day