REPORT: Pac-12 realignment to EXPAND to 8 teams--is that enough? l College Football Podcast

as expected we've got confirmation the Pack 12 is going to expand to eight [Music] teams you are locked on college football your daily podcast on all things college football part of the locked on podcast Network your team every day welcome everybody to another episode of Locked on college football I'm your host Bens mlin thank you so much for making this your first listen or your first view of the day part of the lockdown podcast Network your team every day and your daily source to stay up to date with the biggest stories in the greatest sport on planet Earth realignment coaching Carousel the portal and more getting you ready for the season we've always got you covered today's episode is brought to you by our friends at FanDuel make every moment more as playoffs wind down the Sports Stop sporting like we want them to but this summer FanDuel is hooking up all customers with a boost or a bonus daily that's right there's something for everyone every day all summer long visit fanduel.com lockon to get started we'll talk about Michigan and their playoff situation something curious has happened there that we have to discuss and then Florida Miami is Florida actually going to win that game I mean they could they could all coming up on today's show but Oregon State athletic director Scott Barnes has said very clearly recently uh speaking with John kenzano that the Pack 12 is going to expand and I have talked many a times before on this very show about why they should do that and why that is in their best interest because going to the Mountain West is not in their best interests a reverse merger would be better but I don't think it's the best option well he caught my eye and ear I guess you would say when he said that he feels like eight teams is the right number because it keeps them Nimble or flexible eight te eight teams is the bare minimum requirement for the NCAA to recognize you as a conference the Pack 12 has to get to at least least eight teams to continue operating as a legal entity before the 2026 college football season so they can play this year Oregon State and Washington State can with their Mountain West scheduling Alliance they can play next year with a Mountain West scheduling Alliance and then the following year they've got to have a conference and if they don't they are going to Forfeit a lot of money that kind of cash pot that they have their uh treasure chest or whatever you want to call it the settlement they got from the 10 departing schools the Pack 12 has to stay alive for them to keep that money so that's why I've thought for a long time they're going to expand but the eight teams thing strikes me as curious because as both John kenzano and the deata sportset have reported I think of a couple other outlets have hinted at this as well to add six Mountain West teams would cost about $65 million the war chest is around 220 million 65 you still have money left over it you can still be one of the most well-funded athletic departments in that conference if you're trying to make the premier group of five conference in college football you can't just sit at eight teams I'm not entirely certain what Scott Barnes is thinking here or at least I I wasn't I thought about it some more and I came to one of two conclusions number one he feels that by getting to eight teams you then have the ability to exist as a conference but set yourself up to get to a bigger conference like maybe if the Big 12 went Bonkers they'd want to add four to six schools and if there was already a direct affiliation then adding Boise State Fresno State San Diego State and somebody else along with Oregon State and Washington state would make sense that's if they went crazy or would they go with a full merger with the American with those eight schools one day those are the only thoughts I can have I I do not see how being an eight Team league where you would be that that that League by the way would be Oregon state Washington State Boise State Fresno State San Diego State those five are pretty much locks I think Colorado state is close to a lock so is UNLV and we can argue from now until the end of time about the six you can go with Wyoming you can go with Air Force you can go with San Jose State you can go with Utah State whoever whoever it would be that conference on its own to me does not give you the benefit of what I have long proposed and still believe is the best path for Oregon State and Washington state which is add the cream of the crop from the Mountain West pay whatever the exit fees costs use your War chest for that and Pack 12 commissioner Teresa gold has said many of times yeah that war chess will be used for many things among them rebuilding the conference that that's that's all good and fine but you have to be bigger than that an eight team conference cannot be seen as the premier group of five league in the country which is the whole point of this process because the reason you would lure Mountain West schools or American Conference schools or a combination of the two to play in your league or sun Bel schools if they'd be interested the reason you would do that is so that your conference Champion has the best chance of any group of five conference champion of getting into the playoff an eight Team league doesn't accomplish that even if you put together a league that was even if it was a mix of American Conference teams if you brought in Boise Fresno San Diego State and then went with say tlane Memphis South Florida and you somehow made that work I don't know that it would but if you somehow found a way to make that work even that league is going to face stiff competition from the the American champion and the sun Bel champion and maybe an undefeated Conference USA champion I I I don't think that that is in their best interest to sit at eight teams now here's the other angle that he might be looking at it's a short-term play when he's throwing out an eight team number he's saying eight gives us the most flexibility maybe he's thinking even bigger maybe they have knock this is speculative on my part though entirely possible maybe they've knocked on the door of the Big 12 and they've knocked on the door of the ACC certainly I know that phone calls have been made along those lines and they just really haven't been returned with the sort of answers they were hoping for maybe they feel that those doors are not going to open at least not until 2030 when the next giant round of realignment the next imminent realignment moves are the ACC and the Pack 12 probably somewhere in that order but the next giant round might not be till 2030 so maybe the Big 12 is going to stand Pat and they would only take ACC schools maybe the ACC is able to keep itself together but they don't add anybody and they just kind of sit with what they have and work with what they've got and so if you get to a in the short term you could exist as a league keep the money that you got from the 10 departing schools and go go as that conference for a couple years and then try to add even more and keep building and building until you get to a 14 a 16 Team league you build yourself up to be this G5 super conference maybe there isn't as much appeal as I think there could be to getting a blend of Mountain West and American teams together maybe the Mountain West Pack 12 you know kind of half merger there if six Mountain West teams went over to play with Oregon State and Washington State maybe those schools collectively have to demonstrate to every other G5 program in the country this is the place to be look at the level of football we're playing at here look at the major wins that we have notched maybe Colorado State upsets Colorado a time or two and Washington State or Oregon State are able to knock off their instate Rivals formerly of the Pack 12 just something along those lines to make it more appealing those are the only things I could think of because I saw eight teams and that felt low that feels incredibly low I feel like you got to be at least in double digits and if you want to build a league that's going to last you can't be an A team conference that's just that's not going to happen now at the very least you'd be able to have a conference Championship and have some level of access to the playoff if you strengthen the league and you get to 12 to 14 with good programs I think you can get it you know in in a 5year span three to four times that would be my guess with with with with that League that I have proposed a mixture of American and Mountain West and then Oregon State and Washington state that conference champion in a 5year span is getting to the playoff I I think at least at least three three times let me know your thoughts in the YouTube comments or hit me up on X formerly known as Twitter at s mlin CFB did you see what Vegas did with Michigan's playoff odds I did and we're going to talk about that next first this episode is brought to you by FanDuel I love sports I hope that's obvious I love them so much I never want them to stop but as the playoffs wind down we get fewer games and the sports aren't sportsing like I want them to but FanDuel lets me keep Sports going whenever I want all I have to do is open the app and dream up bets anytime that I am in the mood and this summer FanDuel is hooking up all customers with a boost or a bonus daily that's right there's something for everyone every day all summer long you can bet everything you want for college football win totals Championship odds individual games they can all be wagered upon every week zero week one game can be wagered upon over at FanDuel head over to fanduel.com lockon start making the most out of your summer fan official sports betting partner of Major League Baseball and our official sports book sponsor here at the lockon network according to our friends at FanDuel sponsor here at the lockon network uh Michigan's now favored to make the playoff now I am not sitting here some people think I don't like Michigan and you know what you may form whatever opinion you would like I think whatever I think about your respective team I hate to inform you I regret to inform you all say that I don't have a Personal Agenda or animus towards your program I just happen to believe certain things about it as it pertains to this season Michigan being favored to make the playoff is pretty crazy it's crazy it's absolutely CRA spener you don't think they're going to be any good no if I had to pick their record right now I'd say nine and three I do however feel like 8 and four is more likely than 10-2 need I remind that on their schedule week two is a home game against Texas at least they get a tuneup against Fresno State I I did that little chuckle thing ofama jig Call It Whatever You Like because though Michigan is a massive favorite in that game and they are going to win is that an FCS game not exactly Fresno State's going to come out and they're going to make a swing they got an experienced quarterback and they've got a veteran head coach and they're going to give you the best fight that they can and you're going to be working through a new quarterback situation and then Texas comes to town week to I haven't made many picks on this show that I feel confident about I like Texas in that game they also host USC a lot of people are down on USC I'm not one of those people I'm not one of those people that's their big 10 opener their big 10 opener is USC I will commend Michigan here because I've ripped on them correctly many of times before for canceling the home and home with uccl and having a weak non-conference as they've gone to the playoff in the last several years this year they've got Texas at home Round of Applause this is what I'm talking about that's the sort of stuff that I'm all about in college football so they've got Texas at home they've got USC at home they have to go out Washington look Michigan's a sizable favorite in that game the line has come down because I think Vegas is realizing H Washington Won't Suck Michigan's better cuz they haven't lost as much they've kept more of their team intact but they still lost a lot to the NFL they have to avoid an upset at Illinois it's probably fine it's called an upset for a reason though Michigan stay at home that's not going to be a problem Oregon that is also a home game then at Indiana host Northwestern and then they go at Ohio State I I I look the reason that I struggle to get behind Michigan being worthy of favorite status when it comes to making the playoff as I look at the schedule and I am seeing bare minimum two losses and you could be a good team you could be a top 15 20 team in college football and this schedule is two losses minimum at Ohio State that is a loss that is a loss Texas and Oregon at home if Michigan goes 2 and0 I'm going to have to come on here and apologize to Michigan fans and eat a lot of crow guess what I don't foresee that happening in any way shape or form they could win one of those games they're at home it's the big house you're probably losing one you're that's you got two preseason top five odds national championship teams how many teams in the country can go 2 and 0 against two teams like that Georgia Ohio State could I tell you Oregon's got Ohio State on their schedule if they also had Texas I would uh I don't think their win total would be 10 and a half I think it would be 9 and a half so that's what Michigan's win total is by the way it's 9 and A2 but when I can Bookmark at least two losses to make the playoff Michigan then has to play Perfect the rest of the way a three loss Big 10 team is not getting in I don't think a three loss any team is getting in nor do I think it should because it goes against the very fabric of college football that is of course the regular season the greatest thing uh in sports outside of March Madness so when you factor in that I'm penciling in I'm I'm I'm not even penciling I'm writing in Sharpie between USC Oregon and Texas I'll throw USC in there cuz I like him Michigan could lose all three of those games that seems unlikely because they're at home and I've seen Chiron Moore coach on game days before he knows what he is doing he's got a new quarterback he's got a mostly not entirely but mostly reworked offensive line which I expect to be good but can't possibly be as good as last year few questions at receiver none at running back Donovan Edwards is a beast they're going to have maybe the best defensive line in in in the Big 10 perhaps one of the best in all college football certainly one of the 510 best there's a high floor but is the ceiling anywhere close to last year no it is not and yeah you have those three games at home maybe that's why Michigan's win total is higher than I think it should be at N9 and a half but do you think Michigan is going perfect in those games I know winning at the big hous is tough I know the crowd's going to be rocking they're going to see USC and Oregon coming in there going hey we got new opponents new fan bases this is going to be exciting and it's going to be a Rowdy environment as always off a national championship season what's the new era going to be there's plenty of excitement with the schedule there are plenty of big games on this schedule Michigan's not winning all of them so to be favored to go to the playoff I think there's absolute value if you're into the gambling side of things on betting them to miss the playoff because between those three home games they're going to lose a Le one and they're losing to Ohio State and here's the here's the other here's the other thing I have to factor in let's say they get a win let's say they beat Texas week two they lose to USC they beat Oregon and they win at Ohio State you've got two big 10 losses and you can't guarantee that that puts you in the conference Championship game is that schedule it probably is it's see a win against Texas a win against Oregon those would be big Marquee wins but what if you've got three 11-1 SEC teams and there was a tiebreaker and one gets left well okay so the 11-2 loser and then the champion 12-1 and then the other 11- one or 10 and2 SEC maybe that they're they're going to get in the spots start to dwindle especially when you incorporate Notre Dame into the mix do you know what the highest preseason win total in all of college football is it's 10 and a half you know who has it Notre Dame uh Texas has got it Georgia's got it Oregon's got it Ohio State's got it that's it all of those teams teams are not going over 10 a half that's not how this game works but all those teams are probably winning at least 10 games and they're going to compete if Michigan's not winning the Big 10 this year and I don't think they are you're looking for one of those at llarge spots and it sounds in a 12 team playoff like well there's so many spots available they're going to make it they're going to do it they start to dwindle really quick 12 spots four Auto bids now we're down to eight Big 10 SEC Championship game losers almost certainly in now we're down to six group of five now we're down to five what if Notre Dame gets in if they beat Texas A&M week one on the road really good chance Notre Dame is in the playoff suddenly we're down to four Michigan's not the only team that would be able to build an at llarge caliber resume so who they beat who they lose to could absolutely matter I just find it to be crazy with that schedule where I see two losses as a bare minimum I think they're somewhere between 8 and4 and 10-2 they're somewhere in that range so for me two out of their three most likely outcomes are not making the playoff 10- two probably gets you in probably as long as you beat the right teams and those teams have the season that they're capable of you probably get in but favored to make the playoff that seems like it's true does Vegas know something that I don't know they absolutely could they absolutely could we're going to learn a lot about Michigan in that week two game or in that week two game against Texas The Season's so much closer than we all realize and uh do you know what a big game in week one is maybe the biggest game outside of Texas A&M hosting Notre Dame Miami Florida speaking of betting lines I don't understand what's going on over there in Gainesville either before we talk Florida Miami let's talk eBay Motors passion drive and patience the formula for winning championships is also what keeps your ride or die alive eBay Motors has everything you need to maintain your vehicle and level it up to Peak Performance superchargers roof racks exhaust kits LED headlights and more whether you're into speed power or style eBay Motors has got you covered with over 122 million parts for your number one Rider die you'll always find exactly what you're looking for and with eBay guaranteed fit your part is guaranteed to fit your ride every time or your money back because with eBay Motors you're burning rubber not cash with all the parts you need at the prices you want it's easy to make your car the MVP and bring home huge wins keep your ride or die alive at ebaymotors.com eligible items only exclusions apply eBay guaranteed fit only available to us customers how good of a chance does Florida have to beat Miami that's Brandon Olson locked on Gator joining me to discuss I noticed a line movement the other day Brandon because that's what I do in my free time it went from Miami minus three and a half week one in Gainesville to Miami minus two and a half now I don't know if that's public money or if that's sharp money but somebody somewhere is confident in the Gators why uh well it's me in in in New York that's who it is it's me I put my life savings on it uh I I think that Florida look I don't think Florida's a great team I don't think Miami is a great team but I do think that both teams are in a kind of rough spot where not really proven on either side both are really young last year and you're expecting more from them but Florida is the team that has a returning starting quarterback Florida is the team that's at home in what I think is a top two environment in college football right now like just that that Stadium the swamp is insane to me I I feel like there's no good line for this so I I do think that I do think that it's fair to just go home team should win in this one because it's probably just going to be ugly either way well I think that's entirely possible you're going to have the the week one and early season Kinks getting worked out as cam Ward works his way into a new offense with new weapons and such I think that transition could be very good for him he's going to have the best offensive line in running game that he has had in his college career by a landslide it's not even close he he was on some solid Wazoo teams but they were not able to build him an offensive line or a running game which is why I'm really high on what Miami could be this year because I think they have a decent shot to unlock cam Ward's full potential this year of course they have Damen Martinez to join him in the backfield should be a very very strong rushing attack but I contrast this line movement Brandon and it doesn't make a lot of sense in my brain because over the same time period the last couple weeks or or months depending on the exact day when everything shifted Florida's now down to a 4 and a half win Total Team now that look everybody who follows college football knows Florida has the hardest schedule in the country that's not even arguable I know Brandon is fake surprised for all of you listening on podcast right now four and a half this isn't a four and a half like that's bordering on if you go under you're kind of a bottom dweller in the league Florida is not that right not at all I don't think so I think that the schedule just being what it is everyone just like oh they're GNA these games like like they won five games last year and their schedule is harder this year so it makes a lot of sense but uh yeah I I don't understand the four and a half win total I did a full episode when that win total came out that I was like oh I don't know who did it but thank you cuz I took it I promise you you need to get Daniel Craig's character from Knives Out on the case to figure out who done it yeah I I need to by the way they makeing a third one actually I'm oh I'm so excited I will watch the I would watch 27 of those movies if they kept making him y genuinely genuinely you can make as many as you want I will be there make it the next F I will keep watching but I I just yeah I I don't really know where the four and a half win total comes from and I'm not one of the Florida Gator fans it's like they win a nine games this year but four and a half is a bit low especially when you consider you've got what seven home games this year you've got sford on the schedule as one you've got Mississippi State as one of your very few Road games I think that's one of the things for Florida is that you don't have a lot of road games this year the ones that you do have are are pretty tough for the most part it's Florida State it's Texas it's Tennessee and then Mississippi state's the only one that's not a really difficult one there but I think if you look at four and a half wins realistically I think a lot of Florida Gator fans expect you to hit that total by the time the Georgia game comes in week nine I want to bring it back to this Miami and Florida game it's the best game of week one outside of where game day will be which is Texas A&M Notre Dame at College Station that that's going to be electric but those are really the two highlight Premier impact playoff ramification games that you've got on the Slate in week one which is pretty typical for a college football season because scheduling as I have repeated ad nauseum and will continue to do so is completely broken and doesn't make any sense in college football and if I'm ever elected commissioner that'll be my uh day one initiative there but I digress it's just it's campaign season Brandon on my mind so I think in this game you've got a quarterback advantage to Miami I think you've got a running game advantage to Miami receivers with Elijah badger in there that's a wash maybe even lean toward towards Florida Xavier Restrepo is a football player and he is a darn good one for for the Hurricanes amongst other weapons that they've got defensively I think I feel better about Miami head coach look I don't know if we fully know what Billy Napier is at the highest level I don't feel great about Mario chrisal in game but I also know that he he's won a decent amount of football games in his coaching career I think that's on the back of the talent that his rosters have and I think he has a talented Rost roster here and the win total expectation is such for Miami for for a reason because they have a really talented roster do you feel like Florida is an underdog with the better roster here yeah kind of I do like I said I think both of these teams are very young last year both of them had had that argument last year of well we're not very good like sure Miami made a bowl game but but the argument is we're not very good right now watching these games watching these teams we know neither of them are awesome but they're young that's why we sit through it I do I've said this before I think cam Ward very well may be better quarterback than grah Merz been been a big fan of Cam since the Incarnate Word days was a fan of there I I I knew him back he was balling at the FCS level balling in the rice Award winner for the FCS level I'm just saying however he's going to be in week one with this team in the swamp which is not an easy environment to replicate or play in there so while he very well may be the best one on the field uh I don't think they've got the quarterback advantage in that game I do think that that HomeField Advantage is very big for Florida I mean we've seen Florida to take some teams to deep water in the swamp where they had really no business in recent years uh with some of the Dan Mullen teams and Napier in his first year there uh not so much last year but I I do think that Florida's roster is undervalue right now and for me I think Miami's roster is I I'm more confident Miami's roster is overvalued than I am in Florida's roster being undervalued I think that really I think that when you have as many transfer portal editions as Miami had you need a lot of stuff to go right to get them jelling and moving like the machine they need to be in week one I've got some hesitancy there especially because they added a few key pieces in that second portal window so it didn't even have spring and like Damen Martinez is not part of that like Damen Martinez is a dam as a running back and as a as a running take the ball when it comes to you and make guys miss was pretty standard yeah so I'm not even harping on that one too much but I do think that them trying to replace as much of their defensive line as they're trying to replace in week one expecting them to come out and play damn well hard though for me man I I think that is an interesting angle to look at this game something that I can't shake out of my head with Miami is that Calamity for Kane's fans against Georgia Tech Brandon do you remember what Miami's record was going into that game uh I'm assuming they were like four- one five- one they were no no no no no no they were 4-0 no they were on the doorstep of 5-0 and I think in college sports I think this applies professional sports too there's something to be said about momentum and keeping it rolling I think that took the wind out of Miami sales they made a bowl game last year I don't think they came close to hitting their ceiling they bring back some key guys I love what they've done in the transfer portal I can't shake if they avoid a game like that and certainly you know this Florida game will be their first opportunity to not do that but if they avoid that Georgia Tech loss a year ago I'm not so sure Miami doesn't win eight games instead of six and I think they feel differently for you going into this one maybe but hey would have should have could have but they didn't and right now I'm looking at the same head coach that had that Gaff at the end of the Georgia Tech game or the same head coach that was in charge when that Gap happened at the edge at the end of the Georgia Tech game and I'm looking at a team that has to come into the swamp and again it's week one if if this game was even week four week three even I I would have a different attitude towards it but I'm looking at week one with a team that's trying to piece things together and and just they had question marks going into the off season and on paper you address it same thing you said same thing Florida's offensive line Florida's offensive line should be better this year on paper they address the needs that they had we'll see if it actually works but for me I think Miami is very dependent on transfer portal players hitting and as we've seen so often doesn't happen I live by the general rule of however many players you have expectations for you probably got 10% that are going to actually hit those expectations 10% that are going to fail miserably and the other 80% are going to be somewhere in the middle of your expectations there that's a nice clean line to end Today's Show on Brandon olssen locked on Gator week one Florida Miami in the swamp it inches ever closer Brandon thanks for stopping by thank you appreciate it can't wait to be in the swamp I am a little bit jealous of that just a little appreciate everyone listening I'll see you next time and until then hope you have a wonderful rest of your day