At Issue | Will axing the Liberal deal help the NDP?

[Music] at issue tonight jug meet Singh defends his decision to end his deal with the Liberals but won't commit to Bringing Down the government in terms of any motion moving forward we're going to look at that motion before we decide we're not going to presuppose an outcome of that but we have torn up I have ripped up the agreement with Justin trudo and I know that means that an election is now become more likely we are ready to fight an election whenever that happens so what's to be made of the explanation that Singh gave today and can the separation from the Liberals help the NDP in the polls hello hello there I'm Rosemary Barton here to break it down tonight shant Telly bear Andrew Cen Alia Raj for at ISU nice to see you back another day this is our regular day so we'll be back to our regular length Alia let's start with you tonight what did you make of um some of the explanation uh or attempted explaining that sing gave today uh behind his decision to end this deal well he made it clear that he ripped up the agreement he may have said that like 25 times times R um look he has to navigate a really tricky Road uh he probably wants to ensure that there is no repeat of 2005 where a lot of new Democrats are still upset that the NDP voted against stuff that Paul Martin had like the colon Accord and ushered in a decade of Steven Harper's rule um and so he doesn't want to go on some money bills that might include things that actually the indp fought for in the spring and there is still a drive if you listen to some new Democrats that they actually think they can push the Liberals further on things like pharmacare by being out of the agreement than being in the agreement but the tricky part is when there is a pure non-confidence vote how will the NDP vote I don't see the NDP bringing forward a motion in the next few weeks or even few months um but the block is on the record voting against the government the conservatives will probably use that as their opposition day where is that leave the NDP and that is where the election timing I think lies but as far as you know this weird rock hard place thing he's going to be dancing that dance for the next few weeks and months well well and that's why I I don't know if my expectations were too high Andrew but I thought that the framing or the explaining would be um I don't know more more complex than it was to say the least well let's just be be clear about what he's just announced when he says I've ripped up the agreement what he's basically saying is I've reneged on the agreement I have gone back on my word which was to support the government until June 202 my signature is not worth anything um in politics apparently you can brag about that in most walks of life that would be viewed I think somewhat of scance but look the agreement was essentially designed to buy them some time to keep the the the Wolves away from them asking them why are you supporting this government or will you bring them down it always came at the cost that they would be seen as being too close to the government that the government would take credit for whatever they allegedly induced them to do both of those things have happened like mostly the Liberals have done things they would have done done anyway to the extent that they've done anything further they're going to get more of the credit than the NDP has so it was always a mixed bag for them and it will be a mixed bag now that he has ripped up the agreement which is to say nothing has really changed for them uh people are going to come back to them now because they're the only ones as alth just said they're the only ones who really are nervous about wanting to go into election and let's be clear not just nervous they don't have the money they've only got 58 candidates nominated um they're not ready to have an election anytime soon so they're going to be going back into the uh the pre pre-deal Arrangement which is every time there's a vote every time there's a confidence vote and there will be confidence votes coming up um they're going to have to ham and haw and stare at their feet and say well actually we're gonna we're going to support the government despite everything we've said about them seant there was a time uh in Steven Harper's minority uh Parliament uh when the Liberals kept MPS out of the house to make sure that the government didn't get defeated on a confidence issue to these things have happened humiliation comes in many forms for uh political leaders in minority Parliament and I've watched an opposition leader way back in Bill Davis's time vote against his own motion to ensure the survival of the government so anything can happen I think what we saw today is um a narrative that lacks a rationale a hook you would call it if you were writing a news story IE I ripped the agreement okay but why today why not in June what's the hook that justifies this and it it it was aack even to someone like Thomas mare who used to lead the party and said well you know corporate greed was never or stopping it was never part of the agreement so that can't be IR rationale for saying uh we're walking away from it luckily possibly for Mr Singh there is another party that also holds the balance of power in Parliament uh and that is the bla and when he was asked on the straight question how would you vote if there's a non-confidence motion uh that basically says uh we we've lost confidence in the government would you vote for it if the conservatives go that route and if FR said well I'm not paid to dance to Mr uh PV St so just out of thin air suddenly I'll vote non-confidence not going to happen and that will save probably the NDP a few times yeah there there will have to be something that will motivate the block as well it can't just be as as you say because Pier PV says jump but let's talk about whether you know there's anything good for the NDP here we've talked about sort of the challenging parts of explaining this and what they but but is there any real benefit to this in the immediate althia actually I do think so I mean it's a difficult dance to explain to people because really the calculation is just crass partisan politics and nobody wants to hear that but that's the truth um but they need to uncouple themselves from the Liberals the conservatives have been really good at branding the NDP as being in bed with the Liberals we hear over and over again the NDP liberal Coalition uh the NDP liberal government and in order to distinguish themselves they had to make this move um they were being written off as an option for Change and this is gearing up to be a change election 86% of the country according ABA status as that they want change and a lot of people are parking their their vote at the moment or at least with poll with the conservatives because they just want change not because of some dear lovein with Pierre PV so J me Singh needs to capture those voters and this is the way to do that the other thing is it doesn't hurt that they're doing this in the leadup to two byelections especially the one in Manitoba where distinguishing themselves from the Liberals was a is a good thing Andrew um there's two things that are potentially positive for him one is he's got trouble within his own party on this he's come under increasing pressure from people who were really uncomfortable with this I'm not entirely sure why he's not under more pressure anyway since you know every everyone in the liberal party or lots of people in the Liberal Party want Justin Trudeau go because they're in such terrible shape the NDP is not in great shape either uh so he you know he's an ATT tened position and needs to to to Shore that up the other thing is potentially there's some leverage because the liberal government is in a lot of trouble and may be willing to do some deals in the future the trouble for them is the Liberals only need the support of either the block or the n or even conceivably of course the conservatives and they can play them off against each other it's it's a relatively strong minority government in that they only need the support of one of the parties or put another way all three parties have to turn the key at the same time to bring the government down so the leverage that any one of them has is attenuated by that that the the Liberals if they don't get a deal from one of them can go to the others seant yes uh we mentioned the the last time the NDP brought down a a a friendly liberal government the government of Paul Martin uh despite the fact that it was actually the the NDP back then uh with Jack Lon got to literally co-write a new federal budget uh and still they voted down uh the Martin government and ushered in 10 years of conservative rule but what was different in the Dynamics back then was the bla absolutely had to V vote non-confidence because the big issue was the sponsorship uh issue the sponsorship Scandal there's no such thing now that is binding FR Blan to uh doing away with the Liberals for one two anti- trudo feelings are don't run as high in Quebec as they do in the rest of the country there and and the notion that PV is a solution to fatigue is not really working out so the block has a lot more leeway to decide if it wants an election this fall or if it wants to do it alongside the budget uh then the NDP or even the conservatives plus uh I mean the mdp has uh votes on the ground in provincial elections in BC and Saskatchewan those uh workers are busy getting governments reelected or defeated they're not available until the end of October at best for the Jo meet sing at issue liberal MPS are set to meet in British Columbia next week with bad polling the end of their stable minority government and the departure of their campaign chair will MPS call for a different direction the Prime Minister says his focus is on Canadians look we're focused on delivering for Canadians a big announcement on School of foods we got a more work to do in creating $10 Child Care spaces across the country moving forward on insulin pharmacare these are things that matter for Canadians so what can we expect from that caucus Retreat will Trudeau be able to rally the troops here again to break that down Shantal Andrew and Alia um Alia I know you broke the story about Jeremy broadhurst but I'm not going to let you go first because he went first last time um Andrew what do you what do you what kind of atmosphere do you think Justin Trudeau is is walking into at the beginning of next week with these really big changes in terms of the landscape of politics um fevered fearful uh but also uncertain um you know they've had a summer after the beginning of the summer after that byelection loss in Toronto St Paul's you saw the beginnings of something resembling a caucus Revolt as small as it turned out to be but people mostly said behind their hands and and under cover of anonymity that the Prime Minister should go I think I think one sitting MP actually said he should go uh but it all fizzled out partly because the Prime Minister refused to meet them and and and uh it kept them sort of isolated and alone rather than meeting all in one bunch and since then there's been essentially no movement whatever in the prime minister's office there's been no change no announcement of any significant changes in policy other than going back on a couple of their worst policy debacles at least political debacles uh but no changes in Personnel no cabinet Shuffle you know nobody moving in the prime minister's office so the message from the prime minister's office has been everything's fine we don't need to make much in the way of changes whether that will mify the caucus I don't know but the problem they've got which has not changed is what's the alternative uh you're close to an election um you don't really have anybody waiting in the wings who's an obvious alternative who can do better than the Prime Minister uh you know this is the consequence when you essentially turned the party into a cult of personality in 2015 ran everything through the Minister's office since then marginalized or even kicked out uh you know prominent ministers uh um what have you got left you don't really have anybody any any air apparent or even a a strong bench of of potential candidates and so many of them may feel as bad as the situation is we might as well stick with him I mean it does feel Shantel like the the the strategy to just stay the course is actually the strategy like it's not it's not that they haven't thought of other things it's that this is what they've decided on possibly but uh their plan for caucus or to prepare for a quieter Caucus meeting uh held until 1 pm. yesterday when Mr Singh issued his uh I ripped up the agreement why because the message they'd been sending to caucus one that they believed in apparently uh in the cabinet and in the pmo was time is still on I our side we still have time to turn things around the agreement with the NDP is safe until it comes to expire date in June and we are putting everything in motion to be election ready none of these proposal propositions are still valid uh and the danger to the government is that yes sure you can stay the course it is possible that many liberals and some of them have talked to me saying does this mean we are quote unquote stuck with Trudeau in the next campaign for real um they may come to that conclusion but they may also take the road to the exit that Mr rur is taking the campaign director or even Pablo the Quebec Lieutenant who is said to be days from announcing that he's going to be running to be the Quebec Liberal leader so uh people at some point absent a plan that looks like it will save some of the furniture will just walk with their feet plus you're less than a year from an election possibly now you're losing your campaign director you're losing your Quebec Lieutenant that sounds is really ominous yeah and there are other names and and and nothing that I've confirmed so I won't repeat them but I'm sure we've all heard other names of people that have interests in other jobs and and I certainly Alia after your story published I heard from liberals who were like mildly freaked out because now you don't know when an election is going to be and you don't have the guy who's supposed to put everything in place um apparently those talks had been happening for a couple weeks so maybe there's someone waiting in the wings but but what do you make of what has to happen next week given all these things uh I hope that the prime minister's office um is going to give caucus an idea of who's going to replace Jeremy brur this is the national campaign director um who announced several weeks ago now that um he was quitting and they' pmo has kind of been in a scramble trying to find who is going to replace him because he's the person in charge of what the platform is going to look like the candidates the writings they're targeting the advertising so you no longer have anybody doing that and from what I can tell from my calls and my research they are not campaign ready at all um the difference this Caucus meeting than last year's Caucus meeting was last year's Caucus meeting there was a lot of anger about a cabinet Shuffle that many felt squeezed out of and they really wanted the government to change course and they felt like speaking out and telling either the Prime Minister he needed to go or that there were things that needed to change like the communications plan um that was going to lead to action this time you talk to MPS it's like they're resigned to like nothing happening very few people um seem to plan to go to the microphone and tell the Prime Minister he should go this is not the same mood as last time the Prime Minister has done I think phone calls with nearly every MP in caucus since the byelection loss in Toronto St Paul's he has gone or phoned in uh to Regional caucuses to hear that anger directly but I'm told like at Atlantic caucus yesterday the only person who did stand up was Wayne Long who um Andrew referenced is the only MP who has publicly called on the prime minister to leave and he is not running again there is not that palpitation that he needs to be shown the door because they're unsure now the election timing but also who would be best and a lot of question marks around um the war between Israel and Hamas how that would play out in a potential leadership race and if it's going to fracture the party more so there's a lot of nervous Nellies but they are keeping their mouth shut yeah Andrew just two points one is um the the resignation of the national campaign director I would be surprised if it did not have further reverberations I can't think of a greater vote of no confidence in their prospects this is a guy you know we we're a year away it's he's only a year into the job and suddenly discovers he wants to spend more time with his family I don't think anybody's um going to credit that kind of explanation so you're basically saying I don't think we can win um so we'll see what the reverberation on that and maybe just to reinforce that point when taking over the job or running for the job of Quebec Liberal leader is viewed as a step up in your prospects um you know things are not very good because uh uh you know he's it's an entrepreneur move it's a it's a courageous move for him but it's not necessarily any kind of sure thing that's needless to say 30 seconds think about consider this for 3 weeks now the prime minister's Quebec Lieutenant has been giving a scrums and making statements where he clearly says that he can't say that he's staying and he is still in his job it is strange and it says something about the weak position of the Prime Minister that he he doesn't even dare say well if you're out just you know be out they want him to stick around as Quebec Lieutenant until after that byelection uh on the 16th apparently though he's not even that present in that byelection too from from what I've heard on the ground at issue two key byelections with two races in Montreal and Winnipeg being decided on September 16th the pressure is on both the Liberals and the NDP to hold their writings how risky are these byelections so what kind of pressure do the Liberals and the NDP face how might these races affect the future of the parties let's bring everybody back Shantel yeah this will be a quick round I'm sure we'll talk about it next week too but um how potentially disastrous is it Shantel for the Liberals to lose in Montreal and for the NDP to lose in Winnipeg well uh the Liberals it's easy if you can't lose a seat uh in downtown Toronto and then lose a seat in Downtown Montreal and not be sending the message that you will be lucky if you come out of the election in third or fourth place uh these are core seats and areas that are Ground Zero of liberal support if you're the NDP though you cannot be telling Canadians as Mr Singh has this week that you are the strongest option to block PV and not hold your Winnipeg seat and be able to win at least a second Quebec seat yeah it's the test of his proposal happens on the 16th if he can't hold his own seats and he can't make gains in Quebec then he has not the strongest option to block p yeesh uh Andrew I'm not sure anybody thinks he is the strongest alternative to to Breaking taking down what he says yeah yeah I agree I I think it's more problematic for the Liberals to to lose L Veron you know it's salard I'm sorry to lose that seat after you know is such a safe Li not as safe as TR St Paul's but pretty safe um and certainly I haven't seen any poll but the the the exterior signs are not good the fact that you Trudeau's picture is not on the the lawn signs the fact that they had this Fu within the party over the parachuting of a candidate the fact that these campaign staffers are refusing to work and protest over the um Gaz situation um it it doesn't give a sit a picture of a party that is serenely confident shall we say of its chances there we'll see um so yeah if they lose there on top of Toronto St Paul's uh it will compound the picture of disarray and and and you know directionless of the party Alia um yeah I would say I don't think the liberal well I know the Liberals don't think that they are going to be winning um I've spoken to uh different polling firms that have uh done work in that writing and uh both of them have the another party one has the NDP the other has the block winning that writing I don't know where the truth will lie on Election night but um it's not the liberals so they you know it's interesting that the the wording that we heard coming out of the cabinet retreat was that oh they felt very confident they should have been saying they don't feel confident at all and they need to go work really hard to earn everybody's vot um with regards to J meing I completely agree with shanta's analysis on that I do think however that if the NDP um pivots faster than the liberal in times of defining Pier PV and being seen as taking the fight to Pier PV a lot of progressives who have been itching for that from the Liberals for the past two years might look at Mr Singh differently and if we'll recall like Jack Leighton did not become Jack Leon overnight he spent many years being ridiculed by lots of other party leaders and maybe J me sing can pull a rabbit out of his hat I mean anything can happen um that sounds like such a stupid thing to say in politics but it's true right like we don't know what the circumstances will be in a few weeks and months but he really they really do need to be able to show movement it's not a stupid thing it's actually jackon goad but Jack Leon uh for the record Jack Leon did not blocked Steven Harper he actually won all those seats on the very election year when Mr Harper secured the majority yeah yeah okay so lots at stake at two byelections that we will talk about more next week thanks everybody glad you're back that is at issue for this week as I said we're back now in action because politics is back in action too as you've been able to tell I'm Rosemary Barton thank you so much for watching we'll see you back here next Thursday if not before