Will Trump and Harris Debate? | Lichtman Live #69

five four four three three two two one coming to you live it's l been live say what's up to the people Dad hey we're getting close wowed soon you know shortly after Labor Day haven't nailed down the exact date yet but it should be within a week after Labor day you will hear my final prediction it goes to the New York Times and then right to the show you can exclusively get it first as soon as it's released on this show and you can ask me all the difficult questions you want first of all wow I could smell it in the air Dad yep they smell the excitement and we'll we'll apprise you of when it's coming and when this show will be it could be a special show so stand by St what did Trump say stand stand back and stand by yeah about the proud boys oh okay don't stand by just stand by don't stand back and don't engage in an an Insurrection right don't engage in an Insurrection don't be a proud boy but wait for the prediction right you got it those are the three watch words um apologize for not being live last week um I caught Co dad um unfortunately oh I didn't I didn't give it to you no you did did not give it to me that is true I don't know who gave it to me I only had Co once this is my uh I'm still recovering from it so if I'm coughing a little bit you please excuse me um this is this is my third time having it so not great young and healthy good thing yeah um but that's why we have three times at my age no you don't um but luckily I am past the worst of it for sure I am very close to better I'm not 100 % better yet but very close so that's the good news um but yeah that's why we weren't here none of you were going to catch it none of you going to catch you can't catch covid through a screen um no matter what Tucker Carlson tells you okay um but um we're here this week we missed the end of the DNC we missed uh although you did do a video on the DNC and you did do a video on the Trump or on the RFK and drop out covered all that cover all that got over 100,000 views just on YouTube I don't know about Tik Tok is your mic plugged in dad you sound a little weird hang on you know usually I there we go that's much better that's better wait no no then we lost it all right let me get right one how's that say one better what I think so but I can't tell anyways let's just keep going all right usually I get three lights on it now I only have one I don't know why I don't know okay you I can un I can I can do the limits of my techno ability and that is unplug it and plug it back in unplug it and plug it back in that's good I'll talk while you go so um this week what's been happening this week we have you know the the debates between kamla and Trump up in the air again fights between the two sides about the debate just today earlier today we got a new I I don't know if I'm saying this right but some sort of new indict um regarding uh the January 6 charges against Trump so those are sort of the the two new things obviously my dad posted his video about um RFK Jr and the end of the DNC in common speech but you know all right plugged it back in is it any better sounds the same but it sounds fine I think maybe turn it up a little bit you can turn it up on that dial a little bit how do I do that there's a dial on the front of the giant dial on the front of the microphone but I all I can do is press it no you can turn it up or down I don't know how like you know you just take a dial and you turn it up I know but think to hang on there it's button how's that any better yeah I think it's fine all right um we really need a technical producer with you in DC man you are you struggle when it comes to this technology stuff tell your mom to come down um it's weird at points it sounds like okay it points it sounds like you're back and then it points it sounds like you're gone let me try this this any better maybe you're just getting closer to it can you get the mic closer to you yes get the mic as close as humanly possible to you really close now how does that sound good I'm right on top of it that sounds better I don't know it doesn't sound right it doesn't sound like the mic's plugged into to me but definitely plugged in I'm getting there we go there we go here we go okay all right okay I think we got it now all right all right so Dad um your thoughts this week about the debate and the new January 6th indictment yeah the back and forth about the debate reminds me of the prince of Denmark Hamlet's uh inconclusive siloy to be or not to be that is the question to debate or not to debate that is the question and to try to decipher what Donald Trump actually is saying and what it means is more difficult than decoding a Babylonian hieroglyphic tablet it's almost impossible really no come on that's harder that's harder it's harder so Donald Trump says I'm not going to debate right ABC is biased it's nasty they hate me it's going to be rigged plus she's changing the rules she wants to have a hot mic she doesn't want to have the mic muted then he says you know I really want a hot mic I really don't want the mic to be muted but my staff would like to have the mic to be muted and then after it looks like you know again you can put your own interpretation on what Donald Trump says it looks like he's backing out of the debate and not to be rather than to be but then I think it was just today he says we're going to debate and we agree on the rules we've come to an agreement with the Harris campaign and what's the response of the Harris campaign Sam I don't know I haven't been following this at all what do you think just guess they're like actually Trump says we've come to an agreement and the Harris campaign says just kidding we don't come to an agreement we haven't come to an agreement you've made this up like so much else Donald you're trying to speak for us and we do not have an agreement doesn't matter what you say you know an agreement requires two sides Believe It or Not Donald you just can't declare an agreement you know kind of like declaring Victory after the 2020 election it doesn't work you just can't declare an agreement that doesn't actually exist so at this point uh it remains unclear and we're getting close to September 10th whether a debate will come off at all and if it comes off at all what will be the ground rules now here's what Donald Trump is doing same thing he always does does Donald Trump ever lose Sam in his own mind oh I about to say in his own mind no never even though he loses all the time if he loses he didn't really lose it was rigged it was stolen I won the 220 election in a landslide but it was stolen from me I didn't do anything wrong for any of these indictments but it was the rigged Biden Administration that is responsible for it I had nothing to do with it I my behavior is perfect that's what he set up here two things one if the debate doesn't come off he set up to say of course we couldn't debate in front of this nasty biest left-wing Kami Network ABC so he's set up his excuse for not debating then if the debate comes off and in fact he loses the debate he'll say no no I won the debate bigly but it was rigged against me it was all biased on ABC CNN which does the polling is biased the mainstream media is biased I actually won the debate but it's the swamp the bias media that is telling you otherwise so either way Donald Trump can't lose if he doesn't debate he's got a built-in excuse if he loses the debate he like wise has a built-in excuse as to why he really won and really won big just like he did in the 2020 election so it's all up in the air but Donald Trump has set himself up as he always does for an excuse no matter what happens in the debate what's the deal with the Jack Smith stuff Dad yes I'm about to get to that believe it or not I believe it Jack Smith filed what's called a a superseding indictment as the word implies it is an indictment that supersedes that takes over the original indictment now what prompted Jack Smith to have to file a new indictment Sam uh judge Canon I believe right no that's in Geor judge that's in uh that's a holy Florida that's a holy different case this is the January 6th case oh uh uh Supreme Court Supreme Court you got it you're like a genius Supreme Court in this incredible ruling which has no basis in American traditions and no basis in the constitution in fact the framers were most afraid their biggest fear of all in framing the Constitution was that a president would be like King George become a dictator become a tyrant and they put in all kinds of safeguards to keep a president from becoming a tyrant a president was were you drinking I didn't see show the people what you're drinking what's that what are you drinking I didn't I I missed it lacroy wow how about that pretty good I'm listening to our audience who says you know I shouldn't drink so much diet soda there you go anyway so Supreme Court totally contravenes the Constitution totally intervenes the most important intent to the framers and even though these conservatives supposedly are originalists and strict constructionists uh supposedly hueing to the original intent of the Constitution leave that aside so what they've given is essential immunity to a president in His official duties and very broadly defined official duties and so apparently what falls under this rubric is any kind of interaction between the president and anyone in his administration in other words he can do what he wants you know the horrific example that was brought up he could order team seal six to assassinate his political opponents and he'd be immune from prosecution because as commanderin-chief ordering the team to do what he says is part of its official duties and so what Jack Smith is worried about is the part of the indictment in which Trump is indicted for conspiring with Jeffrey Clark uh an official in the Justice Department to write a bogus letter to officials in Georgia a fabricated letter trying to open up a fraud investigation it would have come off except the Attorney General and every high official in the Justice Department realized you know how illegal and immoral this was and they all threatened to resign that struck out of the new indictment because supposedly that is part of the president's official duties get this this is just astonishing in other words a president could use his power over the executive branch of government to corruptly rig an election and get himself reelected and there's nothing you could do about it because he'd be covered by Supreme Court immunity you know if this decision had been in effect in the 1970s Richard Nixon would have gotten away with wargate and our democracy may have died 50 years ago and you know it's in grave Peril right now so Jack Smith rewrote the superseding indictment to take out that allegation and to generally reframe the indictment the rest of it doesn't include any new facts but it's now framed in a way that he's talking about Donald Trump in his capacity as a political candidate not as president acting in all of these ways to illegally subvert the will of the voters in 2020 and of course you can expect Donald Trump to respond to this you can expect appeals and all of this plays right into the hands of Donald Trump even if he ultimately loses all those appeals why does this play into the hands of trump Sam because he's going to say look they're changing the indictment they're trying they're out to get me no matter what you know even when what else does it do in terms of when the trial is going to occur happen quicker it delays it forever oh it delays it to have a new indictment she's got a rule on it oh Trump appeal it it'll go to the appeals court then it'll go to the Supreme Court even if he loses all his appeals you're talking way past the election so in essence uh we have the one trial before the election what trial was that Sam um criminal trial the uh New York uh fraud case right and what happened in that case guilty mother effer guilty of 34 felony counts the one trial that has taken place and it's going to be the only trial that's going to take place before the election you know we have never seen such a clear example of Justice delayed being Justice denied and if Donald Trump gets elected he'll just dismiss these cases the federal case in January 6 federal case and the Florida federal case and the only remaining case will be the Georgia state case which is uh absolutely in chaos it's pretty remarkable if you think about it that Democrats pushed out Biden cuz he's too old but Republicans have kept this Trump guy around even though he tried to overturn a free and fair election it's it's pretty it's a pretty crazy contrast huh you you know you've heard me say many times I can summarize American politics in one sentence Republicans have no principles Democrats have no spine although in uniting behind Harris uh virtually unanimously they did show you know that they grew a brain and grew a spine at least in this instance but Republicans have no principles uh any party with a shred of principle would not be United behind Trump over 200 former Republican staffers of McCain Bush and I I'm not sure who the third one was Romney more than 200 Republican staffers have said we cannot we're good loyal Republicans but we can't support Trump his own top staff his chief of staff John Kelly his National Security advisor General Master General Mattis on and on his Stephanie Grisham his spokesperson so many people close to Trump have come out against him saying a second Trump Administration would be a disaster for the country and a disaster for the world we've never seen anything like this in the history of presidential elections all right you ready to get to some questions D I'm always ready now I have myroy how many viewers do we have 5,000 583 according to my metrics nice um remember um if you're a member you donate you get priority in the questions members questions are posted in the community tab ahead of the show um where you can post your questions there um just a reminder we can't get to every question um but those questions get priority um and we have a lot of questions members and donors what priority is to members and donors I said that yeah I just want to emphasize that oh you're emphasizing donate right um your first question is from a member dad the Spartan they say how concerning is Texas right now regarding the Attorney General are you familiar with that Dad the attorney general of Texas uh attorney general Paxton I believe got impeached he's under criminal indictment he barely escaped conviction and an overwhelming Republican Senate Republicans in the house in Texas impeached him he was one of the primary election deniers in 2020 responsible for trying to bring a case to the Supreme Court to overturn the results not in Texas of course where Trump won but in other swing States like Pennsylvania Michigan and Wisconson where Trump lost and now he's been launching so-called fraud investigations uh focused on minorities and there have been some major complaints by Latino groups saying you know we hav anything wrong and we're being unfairly targeted by these so-called fraud police and there should be an investigation good luck member Alex Kawa says do you think the DNC was wrong to deny a Palestinian American a speaking slot for the record the speaker would have used her speech to endorse Kamala so there what they weren't disrup I have no idea I can't answer that question I don't know who was a possible speaker and you never know what they're going to say you know you you may think that's what they're going to say but once they're up on that platform they can say anything they want they could be denouncing genocide Joe for all we know so I can't really comment because I as I always say the devil is in the details but I can understand why the organizers may have been uh wary of this um super chat from Harry Chittenden they say in light of Ukrainian advances and prisoner swapping if the foreign success key does not turn true in time for the election will it count for kamla in 2028 you know how reluctant I am to answer hypotheticals much less a hypothetical four years out from now but you know you're a presuming she wins this election and B of course if she's the incumbent presuming her health holds up she'll be the nominee in 2028 but who knows what the state of the world is going to be then yeah it's a pretty tough question Ukraine might not even be that might even not even be an issue yeah might not even be an issue by 2028 um for meta let's hope let's hope it's over right what's that I said let's hope it's over by then let's hope it's over absolutely oh my God there's so much Bloodshed yeah um some you know I'm not a pacifist but as I grow older the more I understand the futility of war that you know typically the result of Bloodshed is more Bloodshed that doesn't solve anything how long have the Israelis and the Arabs been battling since the turn of the 20th century for over a hundred years they've been battling and what does it solv Sam nothing nothing same battles same Bloodshed um for meta what asks what are we going to do about the undecided Keys um is it going to be a repeat of 2016 all over again I'm not sure what that means a repeat of 20 16 uh if that means I'm predicting Trump I have not said who I am predicting and you'll see you know how I call the keys when I make my final prediction not long from now and as I said you're going to be right in the middle of that we gonna have a special show the moment it's released there you go um maybe not the moment but the day it's released the day it's rele the day it's released okay we don't we're not quite enough to do it at the moment right um Dudley Murdoch says since House GOP is now investigating Harris and walls will they impeach them and will this investigating walls and Harris flip the Scandal key before the election starts number one they can't impeach walls why not Sam he's a governor he's a governor he's not a federal official secondly zero zero chance they're going to impeach Harris they have no grounds they know the votes there's like a three vote you know margin for Republicans there's no way they're going to get every Republican to uh impeach Harris uh certainly not right before the election it'll just make it look horribly political and remember to turn the Scandal key it has to involve the president himself and there has to be some bipartisan recognition of Scandal it can't just be pushed solely by a single party uh Matt Jacobson asks deep red/blue States always elect the same party regardless of the keys were the keys deliberately designed to focus on criteria that purple State voters care about while ignoring the other states that's not true I mean reys focus on criteria that generally relate to how voted make their decisions you know the economy Scandal social unrest those are not unique to swing States those are concerns across the board in America right and maybe recent elections the maps have been pretty similar but if you go back to Clinton or if you go back to Reagan I mean they were winning vice versa deep blue and deep red States you know Reagan won 49 states right but Walter mondale's home state of Minnesota right which is not considered a swing state today good point dad um Derek Taylor says when did you make your 2020 prediction I thought you're going to make your prediction after the DNC now it's after Labor Day well it's still after the DNC I didn't say it would be right after remember well people i' got to coordinate with a major huge media outlet that I don't control right but people when you said after the DNC people thought you met you know the next few days after the DNC I thought you know at first that that might happen but it's not going to happen right the the the gist of this all is what he just said he has to coordinate with the biggest media the biggest newspaper on the planet it's not him let's just say that how about that they don't listen to me they'll listen to me on my prediction but they don't listen to me in terms of their Tim taes there you go um James luta member James luta ask what is the state of the social unrest and both foreign policy keys well the two foreign policy Keys you know as I've said for a long time is uncertain I haven't called the social unrest key yet but I think when we looked at the keys we had that one leaning uh blue and it's still leaning blue although I haven't made a final call on it I want to see what happens in the first two or 3 weeks of school which is another reason why to postpone the debate excuse me the prediction a little bit to see what happens you know not the first day of school but the first uh couple of weeks of school and what about the uh third party key D is that officially true now certainly looks like it's true in light of The Disappearance of RFK Jr uh and you hopefully many of you saw my Standalone take on that and it's now even worse than what I thought then you know it was such a convoluted uh withdrawal first of all he didn't end his campaign he suspended it then he said in red and blue States you can still vote for me because it doesn't matter you know unbelievable and then he said I'm going to take myself off the ballot in the swing States so you have a clear choice to vote for Trump did that happen Sam did he get off the ballot in the swing States no absolutely not I think at least in four swing States including Wisconsin and Nevada he's still on the ballot he cannot legally remove himself from the ballot so you know it was the most convoluted the most fabricated the most crazy withdrawal probably in the history of US politics and as I explained it doesn't necessarily help Trump he was fading away anyway and was unlikely to turn that key and remember he may be he's pump polling somewhere between two and five points but remember with a third party you got to cut that in half in terms of their actual voting strengths you're talking about very low single digits and even if say two-thirds of them go to Trump which is very unlikely because a bunch of them won't vote it'll make a difference you know in the low 10 of a percentage point contrarily you have huge numbers of suburban women who will have a major say in this election who may well be put off by RFK Jr's antiva 70% of the American people think there should be compulsory vaccinations for children and virtually every medical expert says if you don't do that you are putting tens of millions of children at risk I have to say well never mind I'm going to skip it um diesel Seattle thank you for your donation we just talked about what's happening with the keys we are at the wh of the New York Times there's um essentially that's that's the entire answer right there no no I also said I want to wait and see the first couple the first couple of weeks of school to see if there'll be some massive Outburst of social unrest gotcha that could be a critical key gotcha um member Thor JK says could this election literally go well until December due to the GOP contesting it yes and no I I I think the election will be decided before that but will the GOP bring legal challenges that could go well into December absolutely uh although I think again like in 220 they'll be quickly dismissed they lost 60 cases they lost every case but one inconsequential case they lost before you know 80 to 90 judges they lost before judges appointed by Republican presidents they lost before judges appointed by Donald Trump fine they allowed to do that but the problem was they weren't willing you know they're the Law and Order party but they weren't willing to abide by Law and Order and go with the decisions of the American legal system instead they resorted to all of these allegedly illegal means to try to steal the election slates of fake electors pressuring Mike Pence pressuring State officials and citing in an Insurrection now can that happen again absolutely but remember one thing Donald Trump was President until January 20th 2021 this time he won't be president and he won't have any of the instrumentalities of the presidency at hand so you know he sat for three hours as president while the Insurrection raged people are hurt and killed Joe Biden's not going to do that um ex Mike wants to know you just touched on you want to wait until you want to see what happens with these protests at campuses do you think it's going to happen happen do you think there's going to be big protests and protest will be exploding across the country ke was leaning blue and I haven't changed my mind about it but I haven't made a final call um Daniel Coro says if there is social unrest in other countries but no social unrest in the United States would the no social unrest key be labeled as true or false false it's got to be social unrest in the United States and book which I hope you'll all buy predicting the next president the keys to the White House 2024 makes that clear we're not talking about social unrest in Venezuela or Russia or Iran or anywhere else um speaking of your books um I love you mad hurry um asks when is your upcoming book on conservatives coming out sometime in early to mid2 25 it's still in process at notra Dame University press it's not 100% guaranteed it's still awaiting approval by the board which I fully expect but which should happen within a week Notre dat should have a better idea of the publication schedule but University presses are very very slow I mean especially in this day and age they must have no money left these University presses they have no money left yeah and I'm surprised that uh Notre Dame is publishing a book about conservatism well that's the thing you know that's why there's a little bit of uncertainty as to whether the board would approve it but it would be incredibly valuable for Notre Dame press to kind of go against stereotypes and publish this book um Natalie Discord mod with a $10 donation thank you so much they say I unearth the keys and user Ellis seon would like to know if the Senate keys he updated can be reviewed live he sent them to Allen's email I don't recall seeing them but I get I can't tell you how many emails every day and miss a lot of them but you know I think they're 30 years old or so so it would take a pretty extensive exercise and time and energy to update them and uh I don't have the time and the energy right now I'm swapped between the show the standin uh finishing the revisions of my book I'm starting teaching I'm doing speaking engagements and I'm old there's your answer um Jim Blow says right now 538 has a 59% chance of a Harris win I think the chance is 93% or 38 out of 41 since your keys show a Harris win well we don't know that yet Jim no no we don't know I haven't made a final call yet right A lot of people have misinterpreted me and I want to make that Crystal Clear you got to wait be patient you know it's still gonna come out two months before the election so be plenty of time to digest to debate to discuss my call whether I make it you know tomorrow or a week from tomorrow is really not of great import right Sam um correct um I just wanted to say I was thinking about Discord right there if you want to join our Discord um it's linked in the description of our video so is our Reddit page I just want to give a shout out to the people who um are mods on our YouTube chat in Reddit and in Discord thank you to all of our mods say thank you Dad thank you all I don't know what a Discord is but it's probably something good do you know what a Reddit is you know what Reddit is right yeah I've seen Reddit that's you know where people put all kinds of comments you're not wrong that was not an incorrect statement wasn't the most accurate description of what Reddit is but it wasn't incorrect also so hey not bad for an old man um forto what says I overheard that Netanyahu was on the phone with Trump about ceasefire deals and Trump is telling Netanyahu to reject it um should we spread the word about Trump that he's been doing this is that is that true I don't know if that's actually been reported I've heard that rumor as well I don't know if it's been documented so I wouldn't spread it unless until it gets do I wouldn't put it past Trump to do that it's very similar to what Richard Nixon did in 1968 you know the other president who was the biggest enemy of democracy do you know what Richard Nixon did Sam in terms of what in the election of 1968 in terms of ceasefire foreign agreements stopping a war uh Vietnam yes he intervened in the negotiations between North and South Vietnam Viet Vietnam to try to stop the war and said don't agree let me win because if you make an agreement it's probably going to cost me the election but I'll win and I'll get you guys in South Vietnam a better deal and we'll end the war quickly did Nixon end the war quickly no no went on for five more years in fact he resigned as president in 1974 with the war still raging until finally under Gerald Ford the war ended with America losing you ever see the SNL skit where uh Dana Carvey plays I forgot who some big anchor of the 80s and 90s and he's reporting about all the different ways Gerald Ford like he was prepping for Gerald Ford dying you ever seen that skit No it's really funny he's like I'm not going to redo it just watch it if you're out there it's funny it's a funny SNL skit um president Brockley says why didn't the Abraham Accords count as a foreign success for Trump they they kind of came and went without much attention or ACC claim remember it's got to be a big splashy success and it wasn't clear what those accomplished uh is the 2024 United States presidential election the hardest for you to pick no uh the hardest was probably it's it's up there but I wouldn't say it's the hardest it's up up there with 2016 and 2000 um yeah I would say 2016 and 2 2000 are way harder than this right yeah I think so uh remember miles wolf wants to know what can we do to combat revisionist history in school curriculums boy that's a really important question because uh particularly in places like Florida and Texas they're rewriting history to make believe you know slavery wasn't so bad oh the slaves learned all these skills that were useful to them and oh these race RI that black people were massacred in it was both black and white people and of course you know there was very little discrimination ever in America and certainly any discrimination that once existed is long gone and we're a pure meritocracy where race gender religion ethnicity makes absolutely no difference whatsoever never mind that the strongest supporters of that point of view the Evangelical Christians in the Southern Baptist convention won't even let women be pastors you know much less the idea that we're a pure meritocracy so what what you got to do is vote for people who uh want to tell the truth about our history run for local school boards or support uh candidates who want to tell the truth about our history for local Schoolboard positions there you go um member John L Sullivan says the difficult Afghanistan withdrawal is getting a lot of news attention in the last two days will this affect your call on the foreign slm military failure key it could I have to see if it has legs it's been getting a lot of attention because it's the anniversary of the withdrawal I want to see if that's you know a two-day story or if it has legs another reason to you know keep the powder dry for another week or two in terms of the final prediction um we kind of already touched on this but maybe there's more you want to say we'll see what happens to states where RFK Jr is still on the ballot yeah as I said uh we don't know he maybe he didn't know or maybe he knew and wasn't telling the truth I don't know which is the case I'll give him the benefit of the doubt and say he didn't know but his whole strategy was premised on staying on the ballot in red and blue states where it didn't matter if people voted for him and getting off the ballot in swing States well the fact that he's on the ballot in four swing States at least uh vitiates the fundamentals of his strategy here's an interesting question from remember sukie bomb they say at what point do we consider the Gaza situation a military failure and what would it take for this to become a military success because it sure is already a humanitarian failure and a staining in our Collective human history now Netanyahu is dragging the whole region into war with his crazy assassination on foreign Soul so I guess the qu that is an interesting question at what point is it just a failure I mean even if well we'll see you know I'm giving it another couple of weeks but it doesn't look good I think we had that key leaning red but what could turn things around and I've been saying this for months what what have I been saying Sam can turn things around in Gaza a peace deal peace deal ceasefire and hostage release yeah but yeah I mean I guess it depends if it happens fairly soon right it yeah it could be a success but at a certain point it's like there's been so much damage done it's hard to see it as a success you know it's got to happen soon obviously for me to call that key that way and it could who knows you know but we're dealing with two very difficult actors Hamas terrorist organization on the one hand and the Very belligerent uh prime minister Netanyahu on the other hand the Donald Trump of Israel you know his belligerent is hurting the Democratic Administration and I'm sure he loves that remember who promoted him it was the right-wing in the United States um Ben valde lend dirz asks could scotus overturn the 2024 election conceivably uh I don't think it's going to happen they pretty much stayed out of the 2020 election now they seem to be more aggressive recently than they were back then but you know not impossible but incredibly unlikely that they would brazenly just overturn an election um fiercely independent ass does RFK dropping out RFK Jr to be precise does RFK Jr dropping out help the libertarian party nominee Chase alliver considering some RFK Junior supporter are libertarian leading at the very margins I don't expect that candidate to get even 1% of the vote no matter what happens with RFK Jr president Scrooge one of our many presidents in the chat asks I'm not sure why Ukraine wouldn't be a major foreign policym military success Putin planned to take the country in one week but with us support um we are 900 days in with Ukraine still standing and making gains into Russia I agree with that if it was me you know simply calling the key based on what I see I would call it a success but that's not broadly how it's perceived it's very controversial in the United States and many many Americans are tired of this seemingly Forever War draining American resources resulting in humanitarian tragedies on both sides beat me by 37 says Dr liman I know you are a big Hubert Humphrey fan let's sing it Dad we're going to vote for hu Hubert Humphrey nice um I am not I wasn't alive then um you weren't even close to being alive even a gleam in my eye right um is there anything that could have been done differently for Humphrey to beat Nixon in 197 1968 you know I don't like to answer hypotheticals but I don't see how any of the keys Could Have Been Changed by anything Humphrey did or didn't do um stealth wants to know which three keys can Maga try to overturn the easiest before the election I suppose they could try to overturn the Scandal key you know that's the one most in their control and some of our audiences speculated you know about a possible impeachment attempt but I don't think they can do it because as I said it's got to hit Biden himself and there's got to be at least some bipartisan recognition you know even though all the Democrats voted against the conviction of Bill Clinton when he was impeached lots of Democrats still condemned what Clinton was doing even though they didn't believe it Rose to the level of an impeachable offense right here's a critical qu we don't just ask softball questions here folks we ask critical questions too here's a critical question from Josh's bookish Voyage they say if 2000 election was stolen through voter suppression um why haven't the keys failed during more extreme tactics I.E Jim Crow uh as I I think I've answered that before Jim Crow did affect two anomalies in the keys 1876 in the waning days of reconstruction when white supremacist so-called Redeemer governments were beginning to take over in the South there were conflicting governments in three states Florida it's always Florida South Carolina and Louisiana and that was resolved by a congressional Commission of eight Republicans and seven Democrats so Sam how do you think an 8 to7 commission voted on these disputed votes 8 to7 8 to7 for the Republic we'll never know who really won that election and then in 1888 when Grover Cleveland lost by a hair by less than 1% uh EXC me won the popular vote by less than 1% but narrowly lost the Electoral College it was again the effect of reconstruction because the surpression of the black vote in the South massively not on the margins like in 20 th000 but you know the majority of the black vote being suppressed the Democratic party was moving into a onep party South and Cleveland won these southern states by huge margins uh anywhere from 70% to 83% margins you know we almost never see anymore christofi Lola says can you go through the elements considered for the short-term economic key the Scandal key and where they fall well I'm not I I can yeah I can I've already called those two keys I've called the short-term economy key is true because to turn the key against the White House Party there has to be an election year recession and typically it's the National Bureau of economic research that calls recessions or another uh definition is two consecutive negative quarters much too late for a recession to settle over the country it takes a while months to know whether or not a recession has occurred so that key uh barring some you know tragedy that we've never seen before is true and what was the other key the Scandal key yes sir as I've said Republicans you've heard me say this many times Republicans have tried for four years as hard as they can to pin something on Biden and come up empty their supposed Smoking Gun witness of his corruption in Ukraine by the way when it wasn't even in office but you know or when he was vice president but leave that out there Smoking Gun witness Mr smyrnov was arrested by the FBI for lying about Biden's involvement and what kind of propaganda Sam was he actually spreading um Burundi propaganda look every time you ask me that question I'm gonna come a different country it's Russian propaganda of course so no there's no way the Scandal key is going to turn remember there's got to be at least some bipartisan recognition of Scandal um remember Casey Adams asks given the rise of election denialism and efforts to undermine trust in electoral systems how can Scholars and policy makers work together to restore confidence in the Democratic process that is a terrific question and it's not easy you know as Scholars what we can do is speak out write persuade lecture do things like this show which you know is is has one of its objectives the upholding and protection of our democracy and what all of you can do is work for and vote for candidates who truly believe in and will uphold our democracy regardless of whether they're Republicans Or democrats um would Trump be better off refusing to debate for the El would Trump be better off refusing to debate for the rest of the election cycle rather than risking the negative repercussions well the debate will not turn any key one way or the other but stepping outside the keys the last thing Trump ever wants to happen is to be embarrassed and his biggest nightmare is to be embarrassed by a woman of color so that could explain all his minations about the debate and while even though the debate was agreed upon I'd say at this point there's a a 5050 chance Trump won't agree to debate uh Nate K wants to know have both Charisma Keys been true in one election I can't think of one Rion cormos said it's very rare to turn the Charisma key only you know six or seven candidates since 1900 have turned the key Teddy Roosevelt Franklin Roosevelt Dwight Eisenhower because he was a national hero remember it's Charisma national hero and to be a national hero you have to be a leader in war like Ike not just someone who performed heroically in war like George McGovern or uh George HW Bush or John McCain so Eisenhower TR FDR JFK Reagan Barack Obama that's it in over 120 years people are making fun of me in the chat for my slip up by almost saying erection look guys I I asked like all these questions like my tongue gets tied a little bit just had Co give the guy a break right I'm not even I'm not even fully recovered from Co yet you got Co brain oh co brain um how many viewers do we have now 6,526 so it's grown as we're approaching the end of the show so it's grown as we're approaching the end of the show show someone just say that oh right um Rian cormo says given the intense political polarization of the mo of the of of the modern US do you expect that most election calls in the coming decade or two will come in September the ultimate hypothe right you know obviously I I I can't know that but let me say this our political polarization and I've come to realize this recently is way overstated it is primarily polarization among the elites among political candidates and uh their donors and backers there's much less polarization among the American people take what's considered the most polarizing issue abortion in fact there is very broad consensus over 60% in some polls 2third of Americans believe that abortion should be always or usually available it does not polarize the public or immigration considered another hugely polarizing issue the vast majority of the American people believe that you need both to have be border security and a comprehensive immigration reform form package that includes a pathway to citizenship or gun control another supposedly polarizing issue the vast majority of the American people believe in reasonable gun control measures like Universal background checks and red flag laws right good point dad um Eddie Ed says do you think uncommitted delegates will cost Harris the election would it be considered social unrest I'm not sure what he means do you know what he means there are a handful of uncommitted delegates I I think less than 1% hardly an indication of social unrest so I don't see that as affecting any keys and it's a very very minimal percentage of uncommitted it's amazing you know that Hara should be getting 99% plus support that's just extraordinary just a few weeks into her candidacy um Adam Miron says hey Mr liman I heard that all campuses are making sure that strict rules are enacting strict rules so that we don't have a repeat of the spring do you think this will help keyate the social unres key could but you know rules are made to be broken and at least you know going back to my experience you know when I was a student in the 60s uh student protesters couldn't have cared less about r rules but it's a different time and we'll see we'll know in a couple of weeks when I make my final call um Sandra Rankin thank you for becoming a member um your question can be the answered on Wikipedia on 13 Keys tracker website Daniel V can if 13 Keys be applied to smaller races no they don't work as well um is Wikipedia still inaccurate I don't know I haven't checked it in a while I don't recommend anyone looking at Wikipedia it's misrepresented my 2016 prediction I know some of you in the audience have tried to correct that and Wikipedia is being absolutely obstructionist and uh publishing false information so don't get your ever get your information from Wikipedia okay never mind 13 Keys tracker is a very simple tool to understand the keys and how they um fall um Brennan Zigler says I saw that the incumbent has never won or they come in party I guess has never won when both the foreign slm military keys were false can Harris still win if those two keys are false but at least eight keys are still true the system does not prioritize one key over another so long as I like to put it in terms of false keys so long as fewer than six keys are false doesn't matter which uh the incumbent party is still a predicted winner there you go um thank you James Patrick thank you Sandra for your donations thank you Mike Hughes for your donations for your donation Don yeah whatever um let's see next question um thank you Sandra again um member JB Brown says how about the senate in house will Dems win the trifecta we know you don't have a prediction system for that but what are what are the odds in your view I don't have odds I'm in a prediction system I have a gut I think the Democrats will retake the house and I think again take this what it's worth it's just speculation the Senate will come out 5050 and whoever wins the presidency will control the Senate because the vice president will have the tiebreaking vote um member JB brener asks I'd love to hear more thoughts on the Democrats elevating AOC do you think she would make a good Harris Cabinet member or Senator or is she best in the house could she deliver Texas in 32 using the 2020 Georgia strategy so we're talking 2032 talk about you know ultimate speculation let me say this you know she had a breakout speech maybe not as spectacular as Barack Obama's in 2004 that led to him to become president but she is a rising star within the Democratic party certainly you know could become a senator you know I don't know how much longer Chuck Schumer in New York is going to go on she's of course from New York and uh she could certainly help the Democrats with the Latino vote everywhere let me say one thing about Texas Texas you know whatever you may think of the polls and you know I'm not a Paul Watcher nonetheless it is surprising that in those two Senate races the Democrats are well within even the statistical margin of error much less the bigger margin of error they're trailing the incumbent Scott in Florida and the most hated man in Washington in Texas who's the most hated man in Washington Sam teddy Cruz Ted Cruz Colin alred is only two or three points behind we're getting a lot of donations and questions about the keys guys the keys will come out after Labor Day we do not have an exact answer for you to as when because um of edor gotta be patient yeah there'll still be two months before the election yes be patient now most people are on vacation now until after Labor Day it's not a good time you know to make a spectacular pronouncement but it'll be here before you know it Dad do you pronounce it Labor Day or or Labor Day uh certainly Labor Day right don't you think that the U in uh British English is useless what's the point of adding a you all have no idea what the point of that is but it's tomato tomato you know yeah I know but um if pal had been the Republican nominee in 2000 against Al Gore um would he have been able to secure the national hero key similar to how Eisenhower did quite possibly you again the devil is always in the details and you know we've had generals who look great on paper and then once they tried to campaign for the nomination for president they totally bombed and so we don't know what would have happened with Powell it's pure speculation I was a big admirer of his back then and totally turned when he made that bogus speech before the UN about weapons of mass destruction to support George W Bush's Obsession to invade Iraq one of the great mistakes of American foreign and military policy um I just want to say before we wrap up here we have 6,500 people watching but only 1,800 likes if you'll throw us a like that' be great if you want to keep hanging out and chatting I have an after show a liman live after show on my channel the link to that is in the description of the video uh this video um do you think how many more questions you want Dad three more questions three more do you think John tester's strategy of not endorsing Kamala and trying to distance himself from the Democratic party will be an effective or weak strategy in keeping his senate seat I've always thought you can't run away from the president of your own party but she's not the president and Montana is a solidly r state you know he's trying to pull a Joe Mansion really you know Joe Mansion got elected from another solidly red State West Virginia by dising himself from the Democratic Leadership so that seems to be what tester is doing uh you know I'm no expert in Montana politics I'm not in real position to dispute that wait you're not an expert on Montana politics no but we should head out to Montana again it was a lot of fun right yeeha remember you went to a rodeo didn't you I do remember that yes yeah um you see a bear huh didn't we see a bear yes yes a brown bear not a black or a black bear not a brown bear black bear not a Grizzly no um crazy Zoo lady wants to know what are your thoughts on the Texas judge that's putting a temporary halt to the Biden keeping families together immigration plan do you think people see once again the Republic party stopping any immigration reform absolutely I I I see it you know if you want to find a conservative judge who's likely to support Republican talking points you can find them in Texas and you can find them in the fifth circuit good point dad really excellent point um would HW Bush have won the 92 election if if perau wasn't so strong and didn't flip the third party key again you know you can't pull something out of history and presume everything else would remain the same but let me say the third party key counted among the six Keys exactly six Keys needed to predict HW Bush's defeat I can take a couple more couple more feel strong here you're feeling strong cro is you know holding me up hey gotta loveed L Croy right um have you heard and or read the book written by Rachel M entitled prequel an American fight against fascism and what are your thoughts about it I haven't read it so I don't have thoughts I've seen her commentary and I mostly agree with it not 100% uh what's your fondest memory from your 2006 Senate campaign and what inspired you to run I was inspired to run because I thought we needed someone who had a different background you know there wasn't a single educator in the United States Senate and I thought uh that would benefit my best memory was uh meeting and talking to voters um our YouTube mod Sean says or asks if you had to guess which is more like to go Blue in November Arizona or Georgia oh I have no idea I'd say equal chance maybe slightly leaning towards Arizona but I I don't have a a model to predict that so that's just speculation can you say Georgia in like a nice slow Southern draw like Georgia absolutely not why not try it I'm from Brooklyn you know I don't do Southern draw how was mine Georgia yeah it's more like you know you're you're the guy who's you know got all these degrees in in Communications not me it's more like actually it's more like Jo whatever you say I'm not trying okay um last question last question that's a lot of pressure all right two more questions no no let's do last question that's fine all right we answered that already I don't understand that one these have been great question they're not softball questions it's not like Trump going on fox or Harris going on MSNBC you know right um where were we oh sting like a bee ask hi Allan I'm so impressed by the Simplicity and the Fantastic capability of your 13 uh key criteria for preting US presidential elections um Can artificial intelligence be used to learn how to make the judgments on close calls and then also predict future presidential elections that's a great question and I'm hardly an expert on AI but I've begun to use it and I've been very impressed and I think it's quite possible AI could be helpful in this regard you know Sam I always wanted always want to stay on top of the latest trends right I Want to Be Right In The Swim right what's happening right now and I think you know obviously AI is the trend of the future right yeah yeah last thing I want to say I know this is not context of the question I'm still getting a lot of people who say they know how to call the keys better than I do maybe you do doesn't matter if you want to set up your own prediction system I encourage it but if you want to use the keys you can't freelance on what you think whoever smart you are and maybe you're way smarter than me but it doesn't matter you've got to stick to to the system itself to how the keys are defined and how the keys have been answered from 1860 to 2020 you can't come up with some new way of calling the keys unless as I said you want to develop your own prediction system and I absolutely encourage that all right that's a good way to wrap it up I want to give some shout outs to some people in the chat ra vegan goddess says love you Professor thanks Sam I watch almost every show that's pretty good Ross Goldberg says good night Melissa ah says thank you gentlemen um vilander says thank you for the stream Patrick Murray says good night good night my friends and you know the other thing I've been getting from time to time because you know I've said a lot would have to go wrong for Harris to lose oh you're just a democratic tool you're just biased of course when I called Trump in 2016 people say just a republican tool you've gone over to the dark side you're totally biased or when I called Reagan in 1982 my first call people didn't know me they say oh you must be a republican tool you know calling Reagan when he's so far down in the polls remember keys are predictions not endorsements they are purely impartial I've called as many republican as Democratic victories if I was just biased and voted whatever if I was conservative or liberal and just voted my political implications I'd be wrong half the time people who say that don't know what they're talking about dad you don't need to waste your breath on this in my opinion some Flack on that I'm done I mean no I want you to finish your thought but I just want to give you I'm done with my thought as I said if I was predicting based on my political inclination whatever they were I'd be wrong half the time and be useless as a forecaster right they obviously haven't looked into you at all and you know criticizing somebody without doing any research on them is pretty uh pretty bottom of the barrel if you ask me let's give some let's give I get that a lot yeah I know you do uh let's give some shout outs to a few more people Jay Torres aelia Yousef Christopher standard Dr Ash uh Janet Ford um Benjamin man um yeah um if you want to keep hanging out the lickman live post show is linked in the chat and in the description of the video say good night to the people Dad good night you'll know soon enough what my final prediction is and God Only Knows whether there's going to be a debate or not