Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks after Fed holds interest rates steady — 7/31/2024

good afternoon my colleagues and I remain squarely focused on achieving our dual mandate goals of Maximum employment and stable prices for the benefit of of the American people our economy has made considerable progress toward both goals over the past two years the labor market has come into better balance and the unemployment rate remains low inflation has eased substantially from a peak of 7% to 2.5% we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2% goal in support of a strong economy that benefits everyone today the fomc decided to leave our policy interest rate unchanged and to continue to reduce our Securities Holdings we are maintaining our restrictive stance of monetary policy in order to keep to keep demand in line with Supply and reduce inflationary pressures we are attentive to risks on both sides of our dual mandate and I will have more to say about monetary policy after briefly reviewing economic developments recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid Pace GDP growth moderated to 2.1% in the first half of the Year down from 3.1% last year private domestic final purchases or pdfp which excludes inventory investment government spending and net exports and usually sends a clearer signal of underlying demand grew at a 2.6% pace over that same period the first half growth of consumer spending has slowed from last year's robust Pace but remains solid investment in equipment and intangibles has picked P up from its anemic Pace last year in the housing sector investment stalled in the second quarter after a strong rise in the first improving Supply conditions have supported resilient demand and the strong performance of the US economy over the past year in the labor market supply and demand conditions have come into better balance payroll job gains averaged 177,000 jobs per month in the second quarter a solid Pace but below that seen in the first first quarter the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low at 4.1% strong job creation over the past couple of years has been accompanied by an increase in the supply of workers reflecting increases in participation among individual individuals aged 25 to 54 years and a strong pace of immigration nominal wage growth has eased over the past year and the jobs to workers Gap has narrowed overall a broad set of indicators suggests that conditions in the labor market have returned to about where they stood on the eve of the pandemic strong but not overheated inflation has eased notably over the past two years but remains somewhat above our longer run goal of 2% total pce Prices rose 2.5% over the 12 months ending in June excluding the volatile food and energy categories core pce Prices rose 2.6% % longer term inflation expectations appear to remain well anchored as reflected in a broad range of surveys of households and businesses and forecasters as well as measures from financial markets my colleagues and I are acutely aware that high inflation imposes significant hardship as it erodes purchasing power especially for those least able to meet the higher costs of Essentials like food housing and transportation our monetary policy actions are guid by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people in support of these goals the committee decided at today's meeting to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5 and a quarter to 5 a half% and to continue reducing our Securities Holdings as the labor market has cooled and inflation has declined the risks to achieving our employment and inflation goals continue to move into better balance indeed we're attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate we have stated that we do not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until we have gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2% the second quarter's inflation readings have added to our confidence and more good data would further strengthen that confidence we will continue to make our decisions meeting by meeting we know that reducing policy restraint too soon or too much could result in a reversal of the progress we have seen on inflation at the same time reducing policy restraint too late or too little could unduly weaken economic activity and employment in considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate the committee will carefully assess incoming data the evolving Outlook and the balance of risks as the economy evolves monetary policy will adjust in order to best promote our maximum employment and price stability goals if the economy remains solid and inflation persists we can maintain the T current target range for the federal funds rate as long as appropriate if the labor market were to weaken unexpectedly or inflation were to fall more quickly than anticipated we are prepared to respond policy is well positioned to deal with the risks and uncertainties that we face in pursuing both sides of our dual mandate the FED has been assigned two goals for monetary policy maximum employment and stable prices we remain committed to Bringing inflation back down to our 2% goal and to keeping longer term inflation expectations well anchored restoring price stability is essential to achieving maximum employment and stable prices over the longer run our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans we understand that our actions affect communities families and businesses across the country everything we do is in service to our public Mission we at the FED will do everything we can to achieve our maximum employment and price stability goals thank you I look forward to your questions uh Gina smik from The New York Times thanks for taking our questions markets pretty much entirely expect a rate cut in September at this stage um I wonder if you think that's a reasonable expectation and if so why not just make the move today thank you so um on September let me say this we we have made no decisions about future meetings and that includes a September meeting the broad sense of the committee is that the economy is moving closer to the point at which it will be appropriate to reduce our policy rate uh in that we will be data dependent but not data point dependent so it will not be a question of responding specifically to one or two data releases the question will be whether the totality of the data the evolving Outlook and the balance of risks are consistent with Rising confidence on inflation and and maintaining a solid labor market if that test is met a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table as soon as the next meeting in September so you asked why not today uh and I would just say again that the broad sense of the committee is that we're getting closer to the point at which it will be appropriate to reduce our policy rate but that we're not quite at that point yet Howard so uh just to to follow up on that a bit if inflation behaves as you expect between now and September would you regard a cut in September as sort of the Baseline scenario right now so I guess I would I would think about it this way um I'll give an example of uh of cases in which it would be appropriate to cut and maybe that it wouldn't be appropriate to cut so if we were to see um for example inflation moving down uh quickly uh or more or less in line with expectations growth remains let's say uh reasonably strong uh and and the labor market remains you know consistent with its current condition then I I would think that that a a rate cut could be on the table at the September meeting uh if if inflation were to prove you know stickier and we were to see higher readings from inflation disappointing readings we would weigh that along with the other things you know I think it's going to be not just any one thing it's going to be the inflation data it's going to be the the uh uh emplo employment data it's going to be the balance of risks as we see it it's going to be the totality of all of that that help us make this decision and just to follow up on that specifically in what ways right now given all you've seen over the last few months in particular on on shelter on Services Etc in what ways are you not confident right now that inflation is on the way back to 2% I I think it's just a question of seeing more good data we have seen the last couple of readings have have certainly added to confidence and we've seen progress across all three categories of uh of core pce inflation that's Goods non-housing services and Housing Services so it's really just um you know we had a quarter of of poor inflation data at the beginning of the year then we saw some more good inflation data we had seven months at the end of last year you know we we just want to see more and and gain confidence and as I said we have we have we did gain confidence and more good data would cause us to to gain more confidence Colby thank you kby Smith with the financial times the March SCP pointed to three Cuts in 2024 with core inflation at 2.6% and the unemployment rate at 4% since we're now at that level in terms of inflation and already beyond what was projected for the labor market I'm just wondering if that rate path is back to being the best guidepost for policy rather than let's say the shallower one laid out in the June SCP you know so I would just say um really the path ahead is going to depend on the the way the economy uh evolves and I I can't really give you any any better forward guidance on it than that we we didn't of course do an SCP at this meeting we will do another one at the September meeting uh I would just say I can I can imagine a scenario in which there would be everywhere from zero cuts to several Cuts depending on the way the economy evolves and I wouldn't want to lay out a baseline path for you there today uh I've said what I what I can say about September and about about today though Nick timos of the Wall Street Journal chair Powell you've said before that you wouldn't wait until inflation got to 2% to cut rates because of how inflation has lagged does that apply for the labor market too if the labor market uh is back in equilibrium why is restrictive policy and potentially very restrictive policy given the High real funds rate warranted right now so this this is the very reason that we're thinking about about um you know that we've said in our in our statement that we're going back to looking at both mandates and that we think the risks are coming back into balance we think what the data broadly show in the labor market is an ongoing gradual normalization of labor market conditions and that's what we want to see you know we've seen that over a period of a couple of years and a move really from overheated conditions to more normal conditions we are watching the labor labor working conditions quite closely and that's what we're seeing if we if we start to see something that looks to be more than that then we're well positioned to respond that's that's part of what we're thinking and when you talk about uh seeing something that's more than whatever softness or slowdown you expect uh in the past you've said that stronger growth uh wouldn't wouldn't override better news on inflation I wonder how that cuts the other way if you're seeing more soft in the labor market than what you would expect does that uh change the calculus on what you're looking for out of the inflation numbers to uh recalibrate policy so we we have growth isn't one of our three we have two mandates as you know uh the labor market maximum employment is one and stable prices is another so we weigh we you know we weigh those two things equally under the law when we were far away from our inflation mandate we had to focus on that now we're back back to a closer to even focus so we'll be looking at the at labor market conditions and asking whether we're getting what we're seeing and as I said we're prepared to respond if we see it that it's that it's not what we wanted to see which was you know a gradual normalization of conditions if we see more than that and it wouldn't be any one statistic although of course the the unemployment rate is generally thought to be you know a single a good single statistic but we'd be looking at wages we'd be looking at participation we looking at all the things surveys quits uh hires all of those things to determine the overall status of the labor market but we're looking at at it now I would say again I think you're back to conditions that are close to 2019 conditions and that was not an inflationary economy broadly similar labor markets then I think inflation was actually core inflation was actually running below 2% so we don't think I don't now think of the labor market in its current state as a likely source of significant inflationary pressures so I would I I would would not like to see material further Cooling in the labor market and that's part of what's behind our thinking the other part of course is that we have made real progress on inflation and we're we're we've got growing confidence there that we are not quite there yet but we we're getting more confident that we're on a s that we're on a sustainable path down to 2% so those things two things are working together and we're we're factoring those both into our policy Chris uh Chris rugaber assent um you mentioned not wanting to see any further Cooling in the job market um why not or would you consider preemptive cuts to prevent uh if you saw risks of an unexpected cooling is that something you would cut ahead of time for so I I I wouldn't say I wouldn't want to see any other cooling it would be more of material difference if we we' be looking at this and if we see something that looks like a more significant downturn that that's that would be something that we would we we you know we would have the uh intention of responding to um so in terms of uh I I don't think of it that way I think of it as you know we're we're actually in a good place here we're balancing these two risks of you know go too soon and you undermine progress on on inflation wait too long or or or don't go fast enough and and you put at risk the recovery and so we have to balance those two things that's the nature of having two mandates and I think we this is how we balance them it's a rough balance but you know it does feel like that again the labor market feels like it's in a place where it's it's just a process of ongoing normalization 4.1% unemployment is still historically low um and you know we'll just have to see what the data show us and just to follow quickly uh wanted to see what you thought of the recent jolts report which did show hiring gross hiring has come down even below 2019 levels uh layoffs remain low so it painted a picture of a very static la Market uh is that sustainable in your view or something that is worrying thank you so I think all of the data points continue to point to kind of the direction we would want to see so that was taken as as you know there was a decline in job openings uh that was good today's uh ECI reading was a little softer than expected so that's that's a good reading it it shows that wage increases are still at a strong level but that that level continues to come down to more sustainable levels over time that's exactly the pattern that we want to be seeing so I think the data dat we've been seeing in the labor market are broadly consistent with that normalization process again we we're closely monitoring to see whether it starts to show signs that it's more than that Steve Steve lean CNBC Mr chairman um back in March you talked about cutting rates as a process and in June you talked about the idea that well one rate cut wouldn't do anything so I wonder if you can um sort of follow on Kobe's question uh talk about are you weighing the economy right now in terms of its ability to withstand multiple rate Cuts talk us through the process that you're thinking or is it just one rate cutter are you in the process now thinking that rates need to be normalized here thank you yeah I can't really say that honestly you know we're we um we've seen you know significant movement in the labor market and you know we're very mindful of this question of of is it just normalization or is it more we think it's just normalization but we want to be in a position to to support the labor market at the same time we're seeing progress on inflation so you know we we actually got to this we raised rates uh a year ago at the July meeting and if you look at the situation in the economy a year ago um unemployment sorry inflation was over was over 4% it was a completely different economy now we've made a lot of progress and the labor market Market as I think you know unemployment was in the 3es mid- 3s so it's a different economy and I think it's time it's coming to be time to adjust that so that we support this continued process the thing we're trying to do is you know that we have um we we've had this really significant decline in inflation and unemployment has remained low and this is a really unusual and historically uh historically unusual and such a welcome out come for the people we serve what we're thinking about all the time is how do we keep this going and this is this is part of that we we think we we don't need to be 100% focused on inflation because of the progress we've made uh 12-month headline at 2 and a half core at 2.6 you know it's way down from where it was the job is not done on inflation but nonetheless we can afford to begin to dial back the Restriction in our policy rate and I think we're just as part of a process in terms of of what that looks like I mean I think most rate you know you would you would think in a base case that policy rates would move down from here but I I don't want to try to give specific uh you know forward guidance about when that might be because the pace at which it might happen because I think that's really going to depend on the economy and that's highly uncertain Rachel hi chair po Rachel seagull from The Washington Post thanks for taking our questions on inflation do the past few months of good reports look like what we saw last year where you really had a lot of momentum with a few bumps in between would you characterize that kind of momentum as back on track at this point in the year actually what we're seeing now is a little better than what we saw last year last year as we pointed out late in the year a whole lot of the progress we saw last year was from Goods prices which were going down at an unsustainable rate disinf lating at at an unsustainable rate this is a broader disinflation this has Goods prices coming down but it's also we're also now seeing progress in the other two categories non-housing services and housing services so you know so the thing is we've only you've got one quarter of that we had seven months of of low inflation you got one quarter of this I would say the quality of this is is higher and it's good but but so far it's only a quarter so I I think um you know we need to see more to know that we're you know that to have more confidence that we're on on a good path down to 2% but as I mentioned our our confidence is growing because we we've been getting good data and things like the ECI support uh and frankly the softening in the labor market uh conditions uh you know give you more confidence that the econom is not overheating it doesn't look like an overheating economy and um it looks like an economy that's normalizing and if we were to think about the first couple of months of the year is there any sense now that they were these blips that could have actually allowed for earlier rate Cuts as were some of the projections going into 202 so the thing about if if that's if what it is is seasonality and it could just be very very hard to you know to to do appropriate seasonal adjustments if that's what it is then that actually implies that that other months were Under reporting too low inflation if you smooth it out it's a zero sum game and that's why we look at 12 months we look at 12 months because that that takes all that out all those effects out 12 month now is 2 and a half% headline 2.6% core this is so much better than where we were even a year ago it's a lot better now we're the job is not done I want to stress that and we're committed to getting job inflation sustainably on to 2% but we need to take note of that progress and we need to weigh the risks to the labor market and the risks to our inflation Target now more equally than we did a year ago Micha Michael M from Bloomberg radio and television I'd like to ask you about the balance of risks as the American people see it at this point is the risk greater to leave interest rates where they are given the damage that higher interest rates due to the economy in slowing demand and raising prices uh or is it more important for the American people that you keep rates where they are to bring inflation down I I you know I think that we've been given an assignment by C Congress this is how we serve the American people is by achieving maximum employment and price stability right and so in our you know quasi constitutional document that statement on longer run goals and monetary policy Strat straty we look at the two goals and if one of them is farther away than the other the the two variables inflation and employment if one is farther away from its goal than the other then you con you concentrate on the one that's farther away and you take account of the time to reach the goal so for the for the last couple of years the best service we could do to the American people was to focus on inflation but as inflation has come down and I think the the upside risks to inflation have decreased as the labor market has cooled off um now and now um and labor market is softened you know probably the inflation inflation is probably a little farther from its Target than is the employment but I think the downside risks to to the to to the employment mandate are are real now so we have to weigh all that and if you think about where that takes this is we have a restrictive policy rate it's clearly restrictive it's been the rate we've had in place for a full year and it and the time is coming as other central banks around the world are are facing this same question the time is coming at which it will begin to be appropriate to dial back that level of restrictions restrictions so that we may address both mandates well you have uh event risk basically with the jobs report on Friday and another one before you meet again uh are you certain that you won't fall behind the curve and lead to unnecessary Unemployment uh if you wait until September certainty is not a word that we have in our in in our business um so you know we get we get a lot of data between now and September and it isn't going to be one data read or or even two it's going to be the totality of the data all of the data and not just and and then how's that affecting the Outlook and how's it affecting the balance of risks that's going to be the assessment that we do of course we'll we'll all look carefully at the employment report but so much other data coming in and so much happening between now and and the September meeting and we'll you know we'll make a judgment uh thank you Mr chairman uh Edward Lawrence The Fox Business I do want to dig deeper on what Michael and and what Nick were asking um there's a a shift in the statement to balance between the focus between inflation and jobs looking at the job sides we've seen wage data show sort of an Abrupt slowing we've uh we're hearing on earnings calls from companies like Intel abrupt layoffs in the jobs report from the BLS government jobs has been a leading Creator could the government jobs as a sector hiring mask underlying weakness in the jobs report well you know we'll look at everything um we've seen some some uh tendency to have a narrowing base of job creation in some months going back but then we've had some months where where job creation was broader and and also the you know that the headline number of jobs has come down so uh you know we would but you you look at the whole thing and and uh I think you do look at private demand uh extra carefully to your point about about government so we'll just be looking at at all those things so as a follow then so could the FED then be behind the curve because you said some of the reports last meeting you said the reports could be noisy or overstated um was there a discussion of of what kind of discussion was there for a cut today and could the FED be behind the curve yeah so um look the objective is to balance the two risks right it's the risk of going too soon and the risk of going too late we've been you know we we uh we had seven months of good inflation at the end of last year we said we wanted to see more we said we pointed out that too much of this was coming from goods and sure enough the first quarter wasn't wasn't great inflation did and now we've got another quarter a quarter that is good and you know we're balancing the risk of going too soon against the risk of going too late that's what we're doing there's no guarantee in this it's a very difficult judgment call but this is this is how we're making it um so but in terms of today your question about today um we did have a um you know we had uh you know a nice a nice conversation about about this issue today the overall sense of the committee as I mentioned is that we're getting closer to the point at which it'll be appropriate to begin to dial back restriction but we're not quite at that point yet we want to see more good data uh the decision was unanimous all 19 participants supported it um and but you know there was a real discussion back and forth uh of what the case would be for for moving at this meeting uh you know a strong majority supported moving not moving at this meeting that was the strong sense of the committee but it's a conversation that we had today certainly Courtney uh Courtney Brown from maxios thank you for taking our questions um when the Fed was raising rates there was a lot of conversation about long invariable lags I wonder if that applies on the way down to how are you the committee thinking about that yes it does and I and I think the lags have kind of showed up here in the last six months by the way you you really do now see the Restriction whereas I mean even a few months ago people were questioning how restrictive policy was look at the labor market now you can see and look at look at inflation sorry rate sensitive um in sensitive spending you really do see now that policy is restrictive I wouldn't say it's extremely restrictive but it's certainly effectively restrictive yes there there the the lag should should be this should be on the way down it should take some time to get into to get into the full economy affect financial conditions and that affects economic activity hiring and that kind of thing and ultimate inflation doesn't it's not instantaneous although it's faster than it used to be because markets move now in anticipation of our moves so are you worried then that if monetary policy acts with long and variable lags even when you're lowering interest rates it might be too late for the FED to help saave off any kind of slow down in the labor market or broader economy we have to worry about that I mean we you're just to make it clear you know it's it's a very difficult challenging judgment uh and we didn't want to go too soon we don't and we want to don't want to go too late and but that's this is how we've made that judgment I feel good about where we are we're certainly very well positioned to respond to weakness with the policy rate at 5.3% we certainly have a lot of room to respond if we were to see weakness that's not what we're seeing though what we're seeing look at the look at the first half growth numbers look at pdfp at 2.6% for the first half it's not signaling a weak economy it's also not SE signaling an overheating economy um labor market admittedly the unemployment rate has moved up 7/10 and we're seeing you know we're seeing normalization there but um you know wage wage increases are still at a high level unemployment is still at a low level layoffs are very low uh initial claims have moved up but they're pretty stable and and they're historically not high at all so the the total scope of the data suggest a normalizing labor market uh and again we are carefully watching to to see that that that that continues to be the case Victoria hi Victoria Guido with Politico um on the labor market I was wondering how worried are you all about unemployment rising to the point where it triggers the S Rule and would that potentially affect how quickly you cut rates we um so I would just say the question really is is one of Are We worried about a sharper downturn in the labor market so and the answer is we're watching really carefully for that we're we're aware of that rule which is really a you know a a I would call it a statistical uh a statistical thing that has happened uh through history um a statistical regularity is what I'd call it it's not like an economic rule where it's telling you something must happen so again what do we see what are our eyes telling us we look at we look at all the things we're seeing and what it looks like is a normalizing labor market again job creation at a pretty decent level wages moving up at a at a strong level but coming down gradually uh job vacancies have come down but they're still high by historical standards so again I've been through some of the data already but what we think we're seeing is is a normalizing labor market uh and we're watching carefully to see if it's if it turns out to be more it starts to show signs that it's more than that then we're we're well positioned to respond is there reason to think that the labor market might behave differently this time than it has historically I I think you know history doesn't repeat itself it it it Rhymes I that that statement is very true about the economy you never assume it's going to be just the same an example would be is there a trend increase in the level of vacancies there many many examples so it's never exactly the same also let's remember that this pandemic era has been one in which so many you know apparent rules have been flouted like the uh inverted yield curve for starters um so many many received W pieces of received wisdom just haven't worked and it's because this the situation really is unusual or unique in that so much of this inflation came from the shutdown in the economy and the resulting Supply uh problems in the face of admittedly very strong demand so the whole the whole situation is is not the same as many of the other prior inflation out uh or downturns that we've seen or business cycles that we've seen so we're having to learn you know we're having to um you know to be very careful about the judgments that we make I would say so we don't assume that that these regularities will will just repeat themselves automatically May thank you chair P Mar mway with Bloomberg there seems to be quite a difference between what the anecdotal data are telling us such as the very recent uh downbeat pige book and the hard data do you take those anecdotes seriously that is that the economy and labor market are cooling much more rapidly than what's shown in the data so I do take that seriously and it the beige book is great what's even greater is hearing the uh Reserve Bank presidents come in and talk about their conversations with um with businesses and Business Leaders and workers and people in non-private sector in their districts but it's I'll tell you it's a pretty you know this the picture is is not one of a slowing or you know a really bad economy it's one of their their spots of weakness and their regions where growth is stronger than other regions but overall it's you know again look look at the aggregate data aggregate data is you know particularly pdfp private private domestic final purchases is 2.6% and that's a indicator of private uh of private demand so we listen to all of that and it does it does um uh I think it's important to listen to anecdotal data and not just look at the aggregate data especially uh you know it's very hard GDP data can be volatile U quarter to quarter uh so it's just hard to measure economic activity there are a lot of it's just difficult to do so I I look at both but I wouldn't say that the UN that the that the anecdotal data is uniformly downbeat it's more thank you jooling Kent with CBS News uh chair poell thanks for taking our questions today you have consistently said that the FED does not consider politics and making decisions with a possible September rate cut on the table it would be less than two months before the election and former president Trump reportedly said that cutting rates so close to the election is something the Central Bank knows they shouldn't be doing what's your response and do you believe it's possible to really remain a political with a September rate cut I absolutely do and I think it's first of all we haven't made any decisions I I would say it this way haven't made any decision about any future meeting I don't know what the data will reveal or how that will affect the appropriate path of our policy I really don't know I do know how we will make that assessment that's what I do know so if you take a step back the current situation again is inflation has come down much closer to our goal and that's happened while unemployment is remain low we're we're very tightly focused on using our tools to try to Foster that State of Affairs continuing that's at each of our meetings and all of our decisions our focus is strictly on that and really on nothing else doing our part whatever that part may be um you know we're we're using our best thinking we're doing our best to uh understand the economy we we follow academics we follow the many commentators who BL us with their commentary um but we don't change anything in our approach to address other factors like the political calendar Congress has We Believe ordered us to conduct our business in a non-political way at all times not just some of the time I'll say this too we never use our tools to support or oppose a political party a politician or any political outcome the bottom line is if we do our very best to do our part and we stick to our part that will benefit all Americans if we get it right the economy will be stronger we'll have price stability people will find jobs wages will rise in real terms everyone will benefit so that's what we believe and that's how we will always act this is my fourth presidential election at the FED I can tell you this is how we think about it this is what we do so it's it anything that we do before during or after the election will will be based on the data the outl look and the balance of risks and not on anything else just a quick followup um do your economic forecasts and models take into account the two very different economic plans of these two presidential candidates Harris and Trump and if so how no we do not do that we absolutely do not do that we don't we don't know who's going to win we don't know what they're going to do we we don't act as though we know and we just can't do that you know we we basically we have our forecast we're not we we can run Sim simulations of different potential policies but we would never try to make policy decisions based on the outcome of an election that hasn't happened yet we would just that would just be a line we would never cross you know we're a non-political agency we don't we don't want to be involved in any in politics in in any way so we wouldn't do that Nicholas thank you chair pal Nicholas rinsky from Baron's magazine um there hasn't been a dissenting vote vote on an interest rate decision in some time if the data do evolve as you expect if you do have more confidence by the September meeting do you get the sense that there will be a unanimous vote on an interest rate move um in September or basically are there meaningful differences in uh committee members assessments of how much more confidence is needed so there there's all there are always um meaningful differences there are and and you know we we talk a lot before during and after the meeting we do have a very robust discussion of these things you're right that in in most cases um people if they feel hurt and they feel that they've that their you know their position has been given serious consideration for most people most of the time that's going to be enough there are descents that's fine you know no one has a veto you you know no single person has a veto so it just is a question of who will vote for and against we we've had we've had um uh you know descent we we had we we haven't had so many during the pandemic era and it just may be that you know we've we felt more united because we felt you know under a lot of pressure to get things right but before the pandemic we had plenty of descents and I you know descents happen it's part of the process there's nothing wrong with desense and uh if it happens it happens Jean hello Jean young with m& market news um is a 50 basis point cut as a first cut at all likely or even on the table thank you you know I I don't want to say I would be really specific about what we're going to do but that's that's not what that's not something we're thinking about right now Jennifer of course I haven't made any decisions at all as of today thank you chair Bell Jennifer sha bger with Yahoo finance not to get ahead of the minutes but you said there was a real discussion today for moving at this meeting I'm curious ious if you could provide some more color on the nature of the discussion today at the meeting about a possible rate cut as early as September well so you know the way the meeting is set up um the first day there's a discussion of financial stability because it's every other meeting we have that and then we have an opportunity to comment on that then we have an economic go around and then this morning we have the monetary policy go around and I think in people's economic go around and in their monetary policy go around people Express their views uh about this and and you know there's a range of views people as you will know from the speeches that they give people have different ways of thinking about the economy and so um in the minutes we'll we'll lay this out in much a much better way than I can do off the cuff but there there's a range of perspectives and you know but I do think that you know we are you know we're consensus driven organization people come together this was a unanimous a unanimous decision and at the end everyone and everyone supported the outcome not just the voters but everyone so I I you know I would also say some people examine the possibility you know the the case for moving at this meeting um but overwhelmingly the sense of the committee was not at this meeting but as soon as the next meeting depending on how the data come in but there is a growing sense of confidence that you could move at the next meeting assuming inflation comes well assuming that the totality of the data supports such an outcome no no question that that that's that is the case that um as as I mentioned um uh you know we we we think that the time is is is it's it's approaching and if we do get the data that we that we hope we get then um you know a reduction in our policy rate could be on the table at the September meeting hi chair P Nancy Marshall gender with Marketplace um former New York President Bill Dudley wrote an oped in Bloomberg earlier this month which you probably saw in which he said quote it might already be too late to fend off a recession by cutting rates dawling now unnecessarily increases the risk is he wrong so this is the Judgment that we have to make and we're we're well aware of the judgment we're you know we're as I as I've said we have to weigh the risk of going too soon against the risk of going too late if we go too soon we can you know uh we had a lot of advice you know to go ahead and cut uh after the seven good months of last year we didn't we said we needed to see more then we saw some higher inflation we've seen one quarter of good inflation and we've seen the labor market move quite a bit uh and as I mentioned I don't think it needs to uh you know cool off anymore for us to get uh the inflation results that are related to the labor market not all inflation is of course so I think it's a it's a difficult judgment to make and and what you see is the Judgment of the committee is that that time is Drawing Near that time could could be in September um if uh you know if the data support that and have the chances of a hard Landing increased so I I don't know whether they've increased I think they're low I I think this is uh you don't see any reason to think that this economy is either overheating or sharply weakening that's just not in the data right now what's in the data right now is an economy that's growing at a at a solid Pace a labor market that has cooled off um but nonetheless inflation sorry unemployment is is low you know the data overall show a strong labor market um and um you know so that's that's really what you see it's it's not it's neither an overheating economy nor is it a sharply weakening weakening economy it's it's kind of what you would want to see but of course it's the job is never done you know we're we're we're watching to see um you know what which way the economy heads and I think if we if we are are to respond to weakness we're certainly you know well equipped to do that uh but that's not what we're seeing what we're seeing is strong economic activity and you know a good labor market and inflation coming down Greg thank you so much um in the in the minutes of the June meeting that came out a few weeks ago there was a discussion about Communications and some fed officials said maybe the FED wasn't as clear enough about its reaction function and and when I talk to the commentators who bless you with their comments they say that they really don't have a sense of what is is going to judge maybe not the first cut but the pace of the cuts going forward they don't have a good sense of that is there anything you can say like how will we judge that um yeah I mean um I I think the reality is that that forecasters and this isn't just the fed by any means forecasters have been continually surprised by for example the strength of the economy last year so I think we had to be pretty humble about about giving forward guidance about this that and the other thing we we need to be pretty careful about that and you know when you're saying you're going to be data driven of course it's always what the data how they affect the Outlook and the balance of risks but um it's nobody has great vision deep into the future in terms of a reaction function that's a that's a longtime you know discussion that that people have had forever um I think people have understood for a long time actually that we were very focused on bringing down inflation nobody was really confused about that um the data have you know again you've seen significant Improvement in inflation just for the last quarter markets move around on that on the data really not so much it's not really what we're going to do it's more just that the data keep coming in and markets are very very responsive to that data right now good and Jeff for the last question thank you Mr chairman uh I'm going to change gears on you just a little bit from all of the rate talk and whatnot um with uh fed now being in the books uh for a little over a year there hasn't been a whole lot of talk about Central Bank digital currency and wondering if you could give us an update on where things are with that is that considered a de issue now is it still something that's being discussed uh within the committee and what's happening with that it's not something that comes up at all with the in the fomc so um more broadly digital finances is an area that's having that has really significant implications for for payments generally instant payments and you know it's something that's going to really change the way it's going to make more efficient and hopefully safer and all those things the way payments are made around the world and so we are we have people who are researching that and trying to keep up to speed because we play an important role in the payments sector both as a you know as a convenor and as an operator too um in terms of a cbdc there's really nothing new going on there's not much going on at all um we're not we don't have the authority to uh issue a CB you know a retail cbdc that that's available to the public we're not seeking that Authority um so what we're doing is keeping up with uh keeping up with developments there pretty much every major Central Bank in the world is is at least doing a doing that some of them are actually seriously looking at implementing a cbdc we're really not we're really just evaluating you know the the story and what's happening out there um so you know I think it's a it's work that we need to be doing that which could be very beneficial down the road but we don't have on on a cbdc we we don't have any plan to we would need to go to Congress and we have no plan to do that we're not no one here has decided that we think it's a good idea yet thank you chair know for