THE STOCK MARKET IS COLLAPSING - Know This NOW!

what's going on guys welcome back to another video we have a lot to talk about in this one the market is absolutely plummeting today the S&P 500 at the time that I'm recording this right now which is about 5 minutes before Market close is down about 2 and a qu% 2.25% right now there are a lot of things that we need to uh to discuss going into September as we start getting closer to uh the volatility obviously that we're going to see surrounding the election and then all of the different uh macroeconomic indicators that we have been paying close attention to so Guys Without further Ado let's get right into it and as always if you guys wouldn't mind going down hitting that like button on this video here if you do enjoy these types of videos uh it helps spread these videos out to more people here and again as I always say guys information is The Edge and you guys are going to see exactly why uh in this video like we've shown time and time again so let's first come over here I mean I've got the chart of the S&P 500 up right now but I think everybody understands that the market took a massive dive today so first thing that I want to talk about here is the seasonal effects uh of September now for me personally I'm not the biggest fan of seasonality uh just because of of every single year in almost every different period in the market being very different different macroeconomic effects happening uh in different data points that are coming out at any given time but historically September member is the worst month for stocks and where we are right now and where we've seen this Market be over the last year or so uh it does make sense that if everybody thinks that September is going to be one of the worst months of the year they might try to get out ahead of it especially after we saw a very very strong close to August so that's kind of the first thing there that's the really most basic element of what we're viewing right now now let's go through a couple of the other data points that we saw today uh that could be one of the reasons why the market is falling so much so we did have that manufacturing data that we talked about on stream this morning now when you look at some of these indexes guys um when you see these numbers here the reading came in at 47.7 versus the estimates of 48 what you really need to understand about this is two things one where is the number coming out versus the expectations and two where is it in relation to 50 above 50 is going to show a little bit of economic expansion and below 50 is going to show contraction so we did see the uh manufacturing data not only come in yet again below that 50 area but also below Market expectations here so that's another that's another point there we also and here's the other thing that was interesting this morning we did see the bond market starting to move to the upside which this is going to come in handy um and be very very important in a few minutes here when we really start to talk about the rotation that we are seeing in the market and again understanding this information as a whole where we are in the market it makes it a lot easier to make much better well-informed decisions oh and by the way also guys the Discord is live for all of you guys everybody gets to weeks free the link will be down below so if you guys are interested in hopping in there with us make sure you guys do because at the end of the month end of September it's going to be weit list only so coming back over here we also saw Nvidia just getting absolutely hammered today uh semi conductors as a whole really significantly moving to the downside I believe SMH was down what 7% at one point I mean AMD is taking a hit over here uh yeah SMH right now the vanx semiconductor ETF down about 7 and a half% uh we did see some news out of China um but also the semiconductor industry as you guys can see right here uh on Tuesday reported below seasonal chip sales for the month of July and with a a significant portion of the Market's gains for this year coming from the semiconductor space when we start to see weakness in those names obviously the market is going to move down with it so we've talked about kind of all of the broad market news that we've had right now now I want to get into um exactly where everybody should be looking in the market right now for potential trade ideas uh to make sure that everybody's on the same page here because again if you guys just want to operate willy-nilly in the market thinking that some indicator or some stupid model that you guys see on the internet is going to help you have long-term success you're mistaken and I want to make sure that you guys have that information so let's just think about bond yields right now there's two things that I want you guys to take a look at one we did see a significant move down in bond yields so remember Bond values and bond yields are inversely correlated so when yields are moving down bond prices are moving up which could suggest a higher demand for these government bonds now what I also want to show you guys is the dollar well what's happening with the dollar today we are seeing a little bit of a move up so when you see the dollar increasing yields moving down and the overall Equity markets significantly moving to the downside well you already have a really good argument that the market is moving uh in a way that they're showing a flight to safety they're going out of the riskier Assets in the equity market and moving into some of these safer assets um bonds now I also want to bring this back up here because this is another key element the Yen significantly strengthened versus the dollar this morning as well and this is a fear of the market right now that the Yen continues to strengthen and we continue to see or we start to see again that unwind of the Yen carry trade which we then see even more selling of of these riskier us assets that a lot of these funds were buying with those loans that they were getting from these Japanese financial institutions converting that currency into dollars and placing it in US markets now when we think about the market as a whole guys and one of the most important things that we have to do as Traders and you guys have seen me do time and time again is look for sectors that are hot we do not want to be putting any risk on in sectors that do not look good does it make any sense right now to go willy-nilly and start taking massive long positions in the tech sector not necessarily now what does look good well we've been talking about utilities a lot have been looking really good real estate though has been very very interesting it's not that big on this heat map right here but right above my head you guys can see there are some decent amount of green real estate tickers and one of them is this one right here uh realy income ticker symbol o now I want you guys think about what a re is the Real Estate Investment Trust a lot of the time they are going to pay a pretty sign ific and substantial dividend out to its shareholders now think about real estate as a whole right now we've talked about in the past that it's going to be very difficult for these large real estate institutions uh to basically rate cut their way out of uh this vacancy issue that we're seeing in commercial real estate but rates coming down could easily help some of these companies out so that furthers our argument that we are seeing a flight to safety that is exactly what I need everybody to be thinking about right now where is the money money flowing and we all we have to do is follow where the big money is this is real trading guys making sure that you have the information and then understanding where to then go and look we also see Healthcare looking relatively good as well here too UNH had a pretty good day here J&J abbv um and again a lot of these other household uh consumer defensive names as well Walmart you guys saw that I had those Walmart calls going into today uh and again I was able to scale out of these way up here at I believe at about 130% they ran to a peak of about 150% and then I ended up cutting the rest of the position after I had already scaled out and made my money back when the position came back to break even so understanding where the money is Flowing is incredibly important now I want to talk broadly about the market here before I kind of wrap things up and send you guys on your way from this evening so let's pull up es here when we look at this chart here what do we see well we see a giant move up in pretty significant period of consolidation which is why we have seen across the board a lot of really really solid setups but you guys again have not seen me get very very kind of crazy going back in with a lot of these setups yet why well we need a reason to trade higher we're going into an election cycle we're going into a period where the FED is going to start cutting interest rates and historically when the FED starts cutting uh which we should see at the September fomc meeting the market tends to sell off after that why well if the FED has to come out and decrease the federal funds rate and kind of inject uh or make it easier for Capital to flow in an economic system it means that there's something wrong happening it means that potentially unemployment is moving to the upside it means that inflation is moving too aggressively to the downside or growth is slowing now on Friday guys we also have a really really important catalyst that's going to give us more insight into what this rate cut is actually going to be looking like for this September meeting personally I don't think we should be cutting rates by 50 basis points it doesn't make sense to do that right now um but when we come over here and look at the FED watch Tool uh again we are seeing these uh 100 basis point rate cut expectations uh for the end of the year not for the September meeting going through the September November and December Meeting those are starting to pick up again um and even taking away from that 75 basis point area there and you can also see the argument or the expectations for about 75 basis points of cutting by the end of the year have fallen uh since Friday so looking at that right there guys that is one of the reasons yields were coming to the downside investors are flying into the bond market trying to lock in these higher yields we also saw semiconductors moving to the downside uh a very very important element of why the market was trading so much higher this year um but we are also seeing a lot of good opportunity across the board but we have to make sure guys as Market participants you're not going to go through every single day or every single week where things are just going to fire off like crazy and everything is going to work very well I know that for basically the first six seven months of this year that was the case um but again that's not going to happen all of the time we have to make sure that we're keeping our risk in check making sure that we're behaving Smart in the market and understanding the current conditions that we are in could this Market just rally right back up tomorrow absolutely it could we are in a period right now where there's going to be money flowing aggressively back and forth and all we need to do is continue to take solid setups with good risk management and trade them how we normally would in keeping our risk in check and never ever ever going into the market and saying oh this looks good since it looks good we're just going to hope that it continues again if things start to look good and they start to move back in the other direction we cut it move to the next one so team that's going to wrap it up for this video here if you guys did enjoy the information and Analysis that I provided for you guys make sure you guys go down drop a like on this video here if you have any questions about anything make sure you guys comment down below but other than that I will see you guys in the next one peace

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