Can Browns' NICK CHUBB bounce back from injuries? | Fantasy Football Show | Yahoo Sports

this one's tough Nick chub is our first running back who we're going to talk about here today uh you mentioned it I mean Grizzly like unsettling injury to see live happen you know to the point that I think I think that was one of the first ones last year that uh was Joe Buck and Troy aan on the call they were like yeah we're not showing you that replay basically um right call that was right call right call um I actually was charting I think I think it must have been either Pickins or de Johnson or something recently and and I was like oh man this is about to be the Nick chub play like you know just like fast forwarding through like you know the the brown side of the ball or whatever it's like ah God there it is it was tough to even just see it back on film again because we all love Nick chub but you just mentioned it we saw him out there squatting what was it 600 pounds the the the bar so so many pounds many many pounds the bar is bent in the video the whole thing you know the fantasy aggregators the aggregator Bros in general are freaking out about the bent bar and the many many pounds that Nick chub is squatting um but Edwin where do we stand on Nick chub coming off of a Grizzly injury a complicated injury and not the first time he's had a complicated uh you know big time you can tell me what it really is I'll just say big scary bad knee injury in his career yeah um yeah I think it's good to clarify what happened to him before in college when he was at Georgia he tore his PCL his hamstring it was basically everything except the ACL so that's important to sort of recognize he dislocated the KN at that point to that did happen fast forward he's one of the most efficient running backs literally in the modern era he h his yards per carry is out of this world and he's generally one of the most likable guys I think in the NFL so that's where we're at with with Nick chub when he injured when he had this injury in 2023 so he actually ended up having and this is important because I think a lot of people calculate return dates from uh return dates from the day of the injury it's actually the day of the surgery so Nick chub actually had two surgical dates his first surgical date was to fix the meniscus right that was on I had it here in front of me uh it was on September 29th of 23 okay then they went back in they repaired the ACL on November 14th of 23 so that's when the clock starts generally speaking generally speaking with acl's most surgeons npts will not release athletes until at least that 9month Mark because we know that it's an astronomical amount uh uh of athletes ret if they come back before 9 months there's I don't know if there's something magical about it we we the data and the science still we don't really truly know why we just know that it it happens if you come back before nine months so the nine months from November 14th whatever that is is like August something right the middle of August yep so you also have to take into consideration he had the meniscus and he had has a the history of this in general could you call it a revision which means you go back in and do the same surgery again not technically but to a certain degree it's another major surgery to the same joint so if you add another month to that that's also typically you get a revision pts and surgeons they say hey this time we're going to we're going to attack on another month right so you're even from an availability perspective you're looking at potentially potentially end of September to to really see Nick chub back seeing his full workload volume you're probably looking at another month before you're seeing him actually bounce back and look like Nick chub if that happens again so okay I've already rambled a lot I don't know if that's a lot um I don't know if you have any like anything to add from there Matt uh no listen I think that that all makes a lot of sense to me so which there's something about like I don't know I don't know anything about anything when it comes to to to this to you know knee injuries anything like that but just when you see something like that happen um on live TV you're like this is going to be complicated like this return process here and I I think that's basically what you are saying as well yeah yeah exactly and so we're really looking at like I said some sort of you know end of September middle of O like Halloween is probably like a time where we C we may look up and like oh look it's Nick chub he's taking the carries right yeah here's the thing about returning after an ACL and the so these are basically all the boxes that Bree Hall did check last year I'm going to compare it to how many Nick chub these are basically criteria of what we see in Su successful returns in the first year after an ACL among running backs but the number one thing I want to get across is most people think like oh yeah the ACL it doesn't matter anymore it's it's a thing in the past it's not true 30% of running backs in the NFL don't ever come back this this is since 2011 don't come back at all in year two right some of them don't come back at all in the first year it happens right we saw that with Jerick McKinnon you see that with Lamar Miller he sort of fell off the face of the Earth so I wanted to make that point first but here are the criteria and I'll say whether so I'll say the ones that he does meet right so a minimum of 9 months to rehab he got that but really should it be 10 months okay I still gave it to him I'm trying to be generous High NFL draft Capital obviously um okay so that's where it ends so the next criteria 26 years or younger Nick chub doesn't meet that minimal complexity of injury you just me you just mentioned it he doesn't meet that Nick chub is a freak athlete right but when we're talking like spark score Spork score whatever we're talking top five percentile of an athleticism score he's close doesn't quite meet that right so the other thing is projected pass catching work and a high touch volume count how much are they going to give him when he comes back even if he does come back and look like Nick chub right so he doesn't meet that either so he meets basically two of the one two 3 four five six criteria generally speaking I would just write most guys off again I said and I wrote in this in the profile before we saw him squat 600 pounds I basically said I give Nick chub a five to 10 this is arbitrary a 5 to 10% chance to come back and actually just be Nick chub because he is a freak right you have outliers you have to sort of give benefit of the doubt where they they've earned it and Nick chub has definitely earned that but you know on one side I'll say yeah there's a 5 to 10% chance he comes back and it's like oh he smashes there's what is that you know 90 95% chance that he has like a javante Williams type season which is somewhere in the neighborhood of like 11 fantasy points per game but I would you know I know there's a lot there but I definitely want to get your take on like what is that backfield going to look like in your opinion how does IT project out I know that they're sort of lean more H pass heavy um does that involve Nick chub even if he does come back there's a lot a lot that I still would like to sus out to yeah the pass catching part of this is pretty key because when we're talking about Bree Hall last year week 12 on these were his Target totals 9892 weird 1692 uh like that's a lot of pass catching work that even when he wasn't having these monster monster Monster games towards the end of the season um he was still being boosted up the floor was boosted up because of that pass catching work that's not going to be the case with Nick chub um it's NE that's never been the type of player he was anyways but it's certainly not going to be this year because as you mentioned you bring in Jerry Judy like they've just clearly committed to being more of a desun watch DeShaun Watson Centric team and we didn't talk Watson in this episode you know even though he's coming off of a shoulder situation I'm glad you tacitly mentioned that thing about Watson because I didn't want to talk about Watson just because like the Crux with him is just is he gonna be a good quarterback or not and like whether whether he's healthy or not has done like a whole separate question so that would be like a 40 minute podcast all on its own but he's at least a part of this discussion here with with the Nick chub thing because it's what they want to be like their actions are speaking as loud as their words here that they want to transition this team kind of a way from Nick chub as a central gravitational point to DeShaun Watson whether that's gonna be successful or not again it's almost a separate conversation so I guess bottom line here Edwin because like they have other guys there they have Jerome Ford who's had some moments I think dant Foreman's had some really quality moments here the last couple of years uh as a as a Fillin back for the Bears and the Panthers I I think those guys can capably hold down the fort for the first part of the season but do you think like do you want to make Nick chub a finalist here even though like you said it's it's it's a pretty low pretty low likelihood he's ever the superstar that he is again um but still he is coming off the board as running back 41 and if he can finish the season strong there could be a chance that that that is a value or are you just kind of like this situation is a little too dicey even for for your um no risk it no biscuit blood yeah and I but I think it's might be sort of a I would modify what you said there at the end I would say it's not so much that I think it's risky to draft Nick chub I would just say that I don't think that it's going to end up paying off from an upside perspective so I would not wave him in all right cool then we will not but I'm glad that you've got at least the candle lit for Nick chub because I want to keep the candle lit for Nick chub whether it ends up being um a great pick or not I think it's a whole separate conversation