Kamala Is In BIG Trouble If This Doesn’t Happen

Start at the big board NBC News National political correspondent the one and only we're going to check in on the state of the race so far according to Steve coraki seven core Battleground States you see them in Gray here we're going to be returning to them over and over the next 63 days but there's all sorts of paths for each candidate here at least potentially now there was some interesting number in terms of campaign Campaign Spending spending just to give you a sense of like where where the campaigns are at Donald Trump they seem to be going all in on Pennsylvania and Georgia now it's true that they have a lot of uh cash on hand still and they're poised to make ad reservations as we sort of move into the fall but right now kamla is massively outspending Trump in Michigan Arizona Wisconsin North Carolina and Nevada and Trump is really focused on Pennsylvania and Georgia Pennsylvania and Georgia are very crucial States this year if you lose both Pennsylvania and Georgia the idea that you could win the the election is like really not great but this is just such a massive spending disparity and still spending less than the comma campaign in both of these states we'll we'll see what the adbis look like in a couple weeks but it's been a tick better Steve Kornacki At The Wall for Harris and the Democrats in these three in Wisconsin Michigan and Pennsylvania all three of them went for and that's all she needs bro that is all she needs she could lose every single other one of these other states she could lose Nevada she could lose Arizona she could lose Georgia she could lose North Carolina and if she wins in Michigan Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that's the whole ball game 20 and Harris's simplest path is probably just winning these three states let's turn them blue for the sake of showing you what that would mean in terms of the Electoral College there you see it and what do that give her 270 exactly the magic number of electoral votes probably her simplest path now from the Republican standpoint what would Trump simplist path be well they'd obviously have to win one of these three the one that they're most invested in is Pennsylvania they think maybe the fact that Harris didn't take Josh Shapiro the governor there maybe that was a missed opportunity for Democrats the Republicans certainly right now spending now reportedly kamla's internal polling showed that picking Shapiro didn't really provide them with any kind of meaningful boost in Pennsylvania that's what's being reported who knows if it's true but yeah extremely heavily here if Trump were to succeed in flipping to put it this way like if if if their internal polling showed that Shapiro would give her plus two plus three plus four she would have picked them and you know that they did internal polling so I think you can just logically assume that that's what happened Pennsylvania take a look at what that would do first of all you see Harris would then have to hold on now I want to look at the map again 27 Election Day Scenarios to win let's give KL let's give Trump Pennsylvania and let's give Biden Wisconsin and Michigan in order to make it to 270 you could get there with North Carolina and any of these other states that's quite a bit of um electoral vote 16 right there she could get there by picking up Georgia and Nevada she could she couldn't get there by just picking up these two states so if she won Nevada and Arizona these Sun Belt states here but if she lost Georgia and North Carolina then Trump would get to exactly 270 Pennsylvania I'm sorry so um Pennsylvania is the most important state and then the two next most important states are going to be North Carolina and Georgia she would basic she would have to win one of these two states plus one of these other two states over here so you could get there just by like Georgia and Nevada for example but this map kind of looks weird like it's hard to imagine her losing Arizona and and winning in Nevada because I feel like her poll numbers have been better in Arizona so more than likely it would be the opposite it would be something like this so she could win without Pennsylvania if she picked up Georgia in Arizona and she is polling significantly better in both of these states than Biden was uh Georgia has enormous amount of black voters and she's polling so much better with black voters all over the country than Biden was but yeah she could uh she could get there with Georgia and Arizona or or north North Carolina and Arizona she could get there with North Carolina and Nevada but she would have to have to have to have to have to win one of these two states here if she lost Pennsylvania of course if she won Pennsylvania let's say let's get rid of Wisconsin now her map is like a little bit easier because she could she could she could do this and she could make up the difference with just one state so she could she could lose Wisconsin for example and if she won Arizona and then lost Nevada lost Georgia lost North Carolina she would still be a 270 or if we for example uh let's get rid of these let's say for example instead of losing Wisconsin she loses Michigan the polling right now doesn't suggest that this is very likely to happen if at all and in this particular case we're kind of back in the situation that we were in Pennsylvania I don't think she could get there with just Arizona and Nevada here or yeah she would actually this wasn't possible if she lost Pennsylvania but if she won Pennsylvania won Michigan but lost I'm sorry if she won Pennsylvania won Wisconsin and lost Michigan she could make up for that by just winning these two states right here and then of course if she wins in a state like Georgia she can just get there immediately or same same with North Carolina she could just get there immediately or if she lost these two states here but one these two states here she could get there so this is why Pennsylvania is such a big deal because it Narrows her path um if this goes to Trump it's just her path is just more she just has to she has to win one of these two states right here and these states I think are going to be harder to earn for her or win for her than uh Nevada and Arizona these two states look better for her right now according to the polls not by much honestly guys all of these states are within like 0o to 2.5 points so we're talking about statistically within the margin of error so technically right now all four of these states I believe are coin tosses statistical coin tosses with the slight Edge to comma I believe in Nevada and Arizona depending on the Aggregate and a slight Edge to Trump in North Carolina and Georgia and every every basically every puler right now gives her a slight Edge in these three states right here which of course is all she needs to win something about there's some about American politics we're just addicted to really close elections do you really Hutch Takes A Geography Quiz want to play this game with me right now do you really want to do this right now okay do it that doesn't count that was a silly stupid mistake that one doesn't count hold on that was a stupid one uh New York is here Mississippi Montana Arizona all right there we go Pennsylvania Is The Key um yeah Pennsylvania Pennsylvania is just such a big deal it's not undoable like if she loses in Pennsylvania it's really not undoable it's really not she I mean she she she could just I mean it like either of these if she wins either these two states then all she has to do is win one out of these three so I I think with her polling right now I wouldn't necessarily my pants if she lost Pennsylvania but won in Michigan and Wisconsin because there is a path here it just relies on one of these two states and honestly right now her numbers look like they just look so much better like she was Biden I think was down seven points in North Carolina I think he was down six points on average in Georgia he was down around five to six points in Arizona and I think he was down like six or seven points in Nevada and now like she is got the slight Edge in these two states now and she is just right there within Striking Distance of these two states I guess maybe I wouldit my pants a little bit if she lost Pennsylvania because technically right now like if we're taking the polls at face value Trump has the lead uh the slight Edge in both of these states so yeah never mind I take it back I think it would my pants a little bit what what does the polling show us right now 538 um North Carolina ooh that's CL that's close ooh that's close that is A3 Reviewing Polls difference point4 difference and then how is Georgia looking wait what she technically I this is new to me according to 538 she has a slight Edge in Georgia which again makes sense because uh there's a lot of black voters in Georgia like 30 40% of the state how's Nevada looking oh this is huge nice and then Arizona how is Arizona looking ooh that's close race in Arizona too I mean oh my God guys it's so close this is a difference of 04 this is a difference of 7 this is a difference of4 this is a difference of 0.2 in Arizona it's so nuts and then how's Pennsylvania looking I think that's a little bit better 1.2 points points in uh 1.2 points in Pennsylvania this is a close race guys Michigan uh a little bit more comfortable it's a 2. fourpoint lead I think Wisconsin is her best state if I'm not mistaken yeah she's up 3.2 points there this is a close race guys Pennsylvania is very close that is very close in Arizona very close in Georgia very close to North Carolina very close in Nevada such a high stakes debate this is such a I think this is more high stakes than Biden dropping out to be H like I think this is such a huge debate election Election Night Anxiety night will be your sobriety's biggest test that's true but I have I do have a prescription to Xanax which I can take as needed and I can almost guarantee you we're going to be popping some xans on Election night cuz I can't do another 2020 2020 I was so stressed 2020 the election night for me was miserable I am so emotionally invested in these elections like I remember being a nervous wreck in 2016 and we all know how that turned out but at least we knew like in 2016 at least we knew that night in 2020 it was so it was like draged like by the time I woke up the next morning I was like okay we're good but my sleep my sleep okay so my sleep was so bad in 2020 that I mean I had to drink a bunch of whiskey to fall asleep and then my body was naturally waking up every hour hour and a half I would wake up and I would look at my phone and I would look at the I was looking at Wisconsin and Michigan those were like the two big States I was looking at and I would just wake up every hour and I would just look at the phone and it would take me a little bit to go back to bed and I would wake up another hour I look at the phone and then by the time I woke up in the morning I think by the time it was like 6:00 or 7:00 a.m. West Coast time it was looking real good for Michigan and Wisconsin and at that point I stopped stressing at that point I was like okay I think we're good but it was just too close to call but we kind of knew like the next day like we kind of knew like the the networks need the they needed to be very like networks have a very high threshold or like when they call these races and so they they needed to wait until a certain amount of percentage of these votes were counted before making their official calls but we kind of knew like the next day and and the way that Trump was behaving as well he was just getting more and more upset as the days went on um yeah