90% chance of cyclone formation: NWS

Published: Aug 21, 2024 Duration: 00:03:42 Category: News & Politics

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STARTS NOW. GOOD AFTERNOON AND THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. WE'RE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON STORMS IN THE PACIFIC AND THEY ARE RAMPING UP. SOME OF THEM COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING US SOME RAIN LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LET'S TAKE A LOOK. THE AREA OR AREAS THAT WE ARE WATCHING 3 DISTINCT AREAS. WE HAVE WHAT'S CALLED INVEST. 91 E JUST AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AND THE REASON WHY IT'S CALLED INVEST. >> IT'S JUST AN AREA OF INVESTIGATION TO SEE IF IT BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE. WE ALSO HAVE NOW HURRICANE GOMA THAT IS STILL VERY FAR FROM THE ISLANDS AND ABOUT AN 80% CHANCE OF ANOTHER TROPICAL DEPRESSION THAT COULD FORM THIS ONE NEAR THE EAST PACIFIC OR IN THE EAST PACIFIC NEAR MEXICO. THIS IS WHAT IN THE SHORT TERM WE'RE KEEPING AN EYE ON THERE. IT IS ON SATELLITE. THERE IS GIL MA AND THE REASON OR PARTIAL REASON WHY IT HAS NOT BEEN CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION YET IS SIMPLY BECAUSE IT LACKS ROTATION AT LAX SPENT. AND THAT IS A MAJOR KEY COMPONENT THAT FORECASTERS ARE LOOKING FOR. IS THAT SPEND BECAUSE THAT MAKES IT A TROPICAL SYSTEM WITHOUT SPIN. THIS THING IS NO DIFFERENT FROM ANY OTHER THUNDERSTORM IN THE PACIFIC. SO ONCE THAT SPIN HAPPENS AND IT'S DEFINED AND IT'S CLEAR AND YOU HAVE THUNDER STORMS THAT ARE ROTATING AROUND A CENTER. THAT IS THE KEY REQUIREMENT FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM OUTSIDE OF THE FACT THAT IT ALSO NEEDS WARM WATERS OF THE PACIFIC TO GENERATE THESE THUNDERSTORMS. CAN YOU SEE SPIN THERE? YOU COULD SEE WHAT I SEE IS THE WHOLE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE EAST TO THE WEST. IT HAS MOVEMENT AT AROUND 10 TO 15 MILES PER HOUR. BUT SPIN THAT'S BEEN PROBLEMATIC AS FAR AS THE FORECAST, EVEN THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAYING LITTLE ORGANIZATION WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS HAPPENED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS WHEN THEY SAY LITTLE ORGANIZATION. THAT MEANS LACK OF SPENT. SO WE WAIT FOLKS OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL VERY HIGH, YOU KNOW, STILL HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF A DEPRESSION OR STORM, BY THE WAY, RIGHT NOW, THE WINDS AROUND THIS AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS AT 35 MILES PER HOUR. THE THRESHOLD FOR TROPICAL STORMS ARE 39 AND HIGHER. SO IT'S RIGHT THERE AS FAR AS WINDS JUST DOESN'T HAVE THAT ROTATION RIGHT NOW. IT IS EXPECTED TO, THOUGH. HERE'S A TIMELINE. 01:00AM ON SUNDAY. HEAVY RAIN FOR THE BIG ISLAND. AND IN THIS PARTICULAR MODEL KIND OF STAYS TO THE SOUTH. SO THERE MAY BE A CHANCE WE DON'T KNOW FOR SURE, BUT THERE MAY MINIMAL IMPACTS FOR MAUI AS WELL AS WAHOO. THIS IS 02:00AM MONDAY. BUT LOOK WHAT HAPPENS ON THIS LATEST MODEL RUN HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CURVE INTO KAUAI. AND THAT'S WHY WE'VE GOT TO BE PREPARED FOR ANYTHING. EVEN THOUGH THE EVENTUAL TRACK MIGHT SHIFT LITTLE SHIFTS AND TRACK AND INTENSITY COULD BRING BIG TIME IMPACTS AGAIN. THIS IS THE SAME MODEL WITH A LARGER TIME STEP. SO YOU CAN SEE 10:00PM SATURDAY AND NOW WE'RE LOOKING AT 11:00AM ON SUNDAY. ALL ISLANDS GETTING A LITTLE BIT OF RAIN, BUT NOT AS INTENSE AS WHAT THE BIG ISLAND COULD POTENTIALLY SEE. AND THEN YOU HAVE THAT CURVE WHICH IS GIVING PEOPLE ON KAUAI, SOME ANXIETY BECAUSE IT'S KIND OF A SITUATION THAT WE SAW WITH UNIQUE, THE THAT CURVE UP TO THE NORTH. THIS IS NOT SET IN STONE GUARANTEED. IT'S GOING TO BE UPDATED AND ESPECIALLY IF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DESIGNATES THAT AREA AS A DEPRESSION. GOMA HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A CATEGORY 2. BUT THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT'S STILL SHOWING WEAKNESS OF STRONGER SYSTEM. WEAKNESS WHILE FAR FROM THE ISLANDS. SO LOOKING AHEAD, WE CAN HAVE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR STORM FORMING SOON. AND WHEN I SAY SOON, IT COULD BE TONIGHT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING PASSING GENERALLY SOUTH THERE NEAR THE ISLANDS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS TIME LINE HAS SHIFTED FARTHER

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