Star Wars Outlaws and Assassin's Creed Shadows Might RUIN Ubisoft | Ubisoft Stock | Disney Stock

Ubisoft needs a stellar launch of Star Wars Outlaws everything has been a failure to launch of the Kathleen Kennedy Disney brand that is a 40% reduction in expectations on one of the two big video games that that Ubisoft desperately needs to have hit [Music] [Music] [Music] I mean that is disastrous numbers right there we just saw some disastrous numbers right there that is bad because now you're talking about Word of Mouth nobody's rocking with this game all the negative publicity that has come out about this thing the ugly woman character that they got in this thing the fact that you know you know several Gamers have now completely dipped out because this is bad this is beyond bad and like you said Valiant earlier it sets up Assassin's Creed Shadows how's that going to do what is what is what is Ubisoft going to do between now in Assassin's Creed shadows I'm I'm curious now I'm gonna be keeping my eye on that watch this because we had this article today that was a perfect Segway Derek we had this article today that I put in the video now with everything that we've just discussed and I I didn't expect that we'd be you know going an hour and a half almost on on on Outlaws but obviously there's a lot going on there's a lot of problems and again this this is mon financially this is going to be much worse for Ubisoft than it is for Disney but the it's another stain it's another black eye uh for Star Wars uh that they just cannot seem to get anything everything has been a failure to launch of the Kathleen Kennedy Disney brand you know Galaxy's Edge doing so poorly that the the stupid 500 million doll Hotel the galactic star Cruiser didn't even last a year and they had to shut it down and take full uh accelerated depreciation right off Ubisoft needs a stellar launch of Star Wars Outlaws this was from the Ft the financial times just a couple of days ago August 30th two days ago on Friday the force uh the Unseen power Central to Star Wars is fading they're telling investors following a flop of Disney's latest spin-off series The acolyte Ubisoft will be hoping its Star Wars Outlaws game won't go the same way some news for you though with that uh with Outlaws and for those that don't know this there is actual shipwrecks within the game that are actually have been crashed in the acolyte era so they're even linking High Republic in Outlaws if you're going and exploring while drinking as much as tequila as I am right now cares so again they're they're hoping that you know through ubisoft's bad last few years and we showed the stock chart before Ubisoft remember this is a video game company that three and a half years ago February of 2021 was at roughly $80 a share it is currently trading at $16.75 a share or so today um and they have been on a downward pitch for quite some time this is where it got scary on the earnings call a few months ago and again it's different than the earnings calls that we hear here in the States because this is a French company um it's traded on the Paris exchange uh but you can trade it here in the US I think it's U.P is the ticker and again we're not advising anybody do that we're just this just statement of fact no Financial advice first quarter results last month repeated a game that Ubisoft shareholders have played before delays to new releases muddied by already lumpy earnings this time the launch of Rainbow 6 uh and a new division game had been pushed to next year that only increases the Market's focus on Outlaws and Assassin's Creed so in other words there is an absolute metric crap ton of pressure on Ubisoft to have these two games perform very well this year because of delays to other major franchises they've pushed to next year they're already in Dire Straits but the Omens says the financial times are not entirely good uh before Outlaws had been released the trailer was subject to online ridicule uh that some blamed for the acolytes poor performance and cancellation before a second season is what they mean here uh fans are also upset about the pre-order price tag of 60 pounds or $70 for the base Outlaws game obviously if you don't know the ft is a British publication which is why you're see Canada plus tax it's even worse up here for a standard edition just because they break you this is how bad it is analysts have slashed the number of copies of Outlaws they expect the company to sell this is from Nick Dempsey at Barkley's Bank a major uh major European bank they have slashed the forecast as of a few weeks ago from 8 million copies sold in the fiscal quarter right now to 5 million copies that is a 40% reduction in expectations on one of the two big video games that that Ubisoft desperately needs to have hit otherwise there might not be an Ubisoft next year for these other games so how many does this thing you I think you had mentioned it earlier how long how much does this need to how many copies does this need to sell in order for it to be I'm gonna guess 10 million I I would I would say probably a total of I would think somewhere in the order of 10 million just to consider breaking even you think about this if not everybody's paying $120 $130 so if if you if if if if the the vast majority of sales out there are going to be at the $70 level again on day one the $70 uh the $70 copy was being reduced to $54 on that one website on day one so if we assume that the average copy over the life of this game will sell at $70 retail we're probably being a little generous it's probably even it's probably even less though valant because a lot of people like me if you're in the cheap Gamers and still want to get the three-day Early Access as Derrick was saying as the early content creator you're going to go for the the premium plus premum plus you drop your $20 you get the full Ultimate Edition with all the dlc's all that included and your streaming day so I'm guessing that they're not going to make they probably more money off the UB UB premium and People canceled after one month than they actually did for buying the premium copies because they copies I don't know the hard copy sales yeah they may very well do but let's just assume no statues no nothing was there any like hard copy collector's edition announced with this there's another failure right there well remember we had um and I'll get to this in a minute to back this up because yall probably saw this clip today but I'll just mention it here um but if they sold 10 million copies of this game at retail and let's say that they went for $70 a piece right yeah so you're you're you're looking somewhere around $700 million at gross retail that does not come back to Ubisoft n so your retailers keep a chunk of that your platforms get their licensing fees for example PC is going to take a fee for what sold for the PC platform you you have fees that you owe to Sony and Xbox and all that kind of stuff because again like we tell folks when you buy a console when you buy an Xbox or you buy a PlayStation Sony didn't make any money on those PlayStations they they used to be like with the PS all the way up too and including at least the PS4 and I think not team yet either yeah they would lose money for every for every console that Sony sold they were literally losing money because that's not where they make the money they make the money on the software they make the money on the subscriptions and the games pay licensing fees to get onto the platform including something like Star Wars Outlaws so let's say that somehow they sell 10 million copies of this game MH again the forecast was slashed from 8 to 5 oh but Valiant that's only this quarter yeah but you know how game sales are they're just like YouTube videos and television shows and movies in the theater after the first week or two it just everybody who wants it has gotten it and and and the the later adopters fall off very rapidly so you've got to hit that very very quickly right we knew in the first like two weeks two weeks um what was it they had sold 10 million copies or whatever of Hogwarts Legacy it was ridiculous I mean it was C and they finished up at like 20 plus so even if they sold a million copies two million copies in the first couple of weeks that means the game might top out at four okay but let's say half of that money let's say three to 400 million of that 700 million retail actually gets back to Ubisoft to cover the bills they might have just broken even they have got to sell way more than that now you want to see how bad this is go to the next paragraph with Ubisoft and Company leaving full year guidance unchanged it means if what Ubisoft is saying is we think as of the last earnings call our guidance our Outlook our financial Outlook in terms of total revenue and operating income at this time we are not making any adjustments to our forward guidance basically we still think all this same stuff is going to happen they should have gone to home basing well that what means here is that if if Nick Dempsey at Barkley's is right yep and the forecast for this Outlaws game is being cut from8 to five which again 5 million might be too high if he cut that hard it might have need to be cut harder that means what he's saying is Assassin's Creed uh uh shadows will need to have at least 135 million copies sold to make up the Gap that Outlaws is going to leave behind if if the people running Ubisoft are not fullish and liing they're full that's why people call I'm quoting articles I'm quoting articles no no I I want to be clear for YouTube's sake I'm not saying that that a publicly traded company is is making false statements I'm just saying that this is hang on this is based on Nick Dempsey's assessment at Barkley he is saying that well if they're telling us the guidance isn't changing something else has to make this up is that means they're telling us that they're expecting this that's somebody lying about something so and so and then it says here because I'm reading on um Valhalla only sold 13 million copies yes the total sales for Valhalla yeah and it didn't have anywhere near the negative press of Assassin's Creed Shadows I don't think anybody would expect Assassin's Creed Shadows to sell as many copies or let alone out sell Valhalla can I just say one thing you know what the best selling the best selling point of the Assassin's Creed Shadow game so far is I'm going to show you gameplay of a black samurai to rap music you know that's nothing says more reality and realism than and stereotypical gameplay than rap music to a black samurai that we don't know is an actual Samurai yeah look this is this is the history of of the uh Assassin's Creed series okay from 2017 to 18 to 21 of course was the big peak over 14 million copies sold there in in units total that year 2022 23 comes down 24 and 25 but I want you to look here nothing nothing ex outside of 2021 and these are not single games this is collectively of all the games all the units for for AC that would have sold that year only one time only one year have those unit sales exceeded the goal that they now have of 13 A5 million units for this game by the end of the year in order for Ubisoft is that black flag I mean it's just I don't know what I have no idea make sure you're subscribe to Valiant Renegade and join us every Sunday at 600 p.m. Eastern for the live show