05/09/24 - Heavy rain in the south – Afternoon Weather Forecast UK – Met Office Weather

hi there Stark contrasts across the UK during the next few days with some very wet weather in some places and some very warm weather in others and it's Northwestern parts of the UK where summer has been missing from action during the last two months basically where we're going to see the warmest and sunniest weather whilst its Southern Parts where we'll see the wetest weather what's happening well basically the jet stream has extended so far south that it's cut off its own circulation and this circulation contains an area of low pressure that's going to sit over France when this happens the main throw of the jet stream is unable to move along these cut off lows and they tend to stay in the same place for day after day as a result we see a lot of the same weather in the same places that means that in some parts of the UK we're going to see a lot of rain accumulating and although there will be some damp weather in the east on an easterly wind is essentially towards the south of Wales and the south of England where we'll see the largest rainfall accumulations so this is the 48h hour rainfall accumulations throughout Thursday and Friday and as you can see widely 25 to 50 millim of rainfall but in some spots for example across parts of Devon Somerset South Wales for example into Hampshire there is the risk of 100 mm or more through Thursday and Friday so rain warnings in force check the latest on those via the Met Office app and website but the rain is already set in across the South and Southwest and it's essentially turning heavier and more persistent heading into Thursday afternoon it mostly stays to the south of the M4 Corridor north of that we do have a lot of cloud especially for Northeastern parts of the UK and some drizzle on that low Cloud as it arrives from the East this easterly wind it's not a cold easterly by any stretch of the imagination it contains a lot of humid air that's been drawn up across much of the UK from Central Europe as a result when it hits the land it results in a lot of low cloud and mistiness around the coasts and hills of Northeast England Southeast Scotland but that cloud then gets broken up so that brighter skies are expected across parts of North Wales Northwest England Western Scotland and Northern Ireland and temperatures Rising here during the next few days High Teens low 20s expected on Thursday afternoon whilst those temperatures will be seriously suppressed across the South and Southwest mid teen more likely weather rain is persistent and heavy at times that rain will come and go through the evening and overnight it does ease off for a time after dark across the South and Southwest although it stays drizzle with a lot of cloud and again we continue to see this Mist fret har affecting the North Sea Coast of Northeastern UK but there will be some clear skies around perhaps across East Anglia Lincolnshire as well as Western Scotland and Northern IR Northwest England overnight nevertheless because of this humid air flow even if you've got the clear skies it's not going to be a chilly night in fact it's going to be a particularly muggy night with temperatures well above the seasonal average 16 17 18 Celsius a muggy one for sleeping then we start off Friday many places dry first thing but once again the showery rain starts going through the morning and there'll be some heavy downpours and that rain consolidating once more into this area of persistent and at times heavy perhaps even thundery rain the thunderstorms most likely early in the day actually on Friday the afternoon it's this narrow band of heavy rain that's likely to run along the south coast of England it does ease off around the M4 into South Wales some sunshine coming through here and actually plenty of sunshine across much of the rest of the UK Scotland Northern Ireland Northern England parts of Wales and East Anglia just that area of low Cloud coming and going across the North Sea Coast some Mist some drizzle at times here feeling cool because of that low Cloud but Inland where we do get some sunshine a marked contrast mid to high 20s in places you could see 27 Celsius for example across parts of Cambridge and Northwest Scotland if we get 27 Celsius 26 or 27 most likely numbers then it'll be the warmest day of the year so far for Western Scotland quite a remarkable turn of event compared with the summer and beautiful weather to come across Northwest England North Wales Northern Ireland compared with how we've seen things during the last few months but that rain continues to go across the South and you can see how that leads to below average temperatures the blues coming along there for South Evan and Cornwall this is the temperature difference compared with the month's average maximum temperatures and as you can see there's this sharp gradient around the M4 Corridor northwards where it's significantly above average any small adjustments in the position of the cloud and Rain of course will make a big difference the feel of the day in this Zone where you've either got the cloud and the heavy rain or just a bit further north you've got some humid air but also some very warm sunshine coming through Northeastern parts of course limited by that low Cloud which will tend to creep in land for some overnight into Friday nights and actually it becomes increasingly cloudy on Friday night with the rain in the South that narrow but Heavy band of rain pushing North once again into South Wales so step up today with the warnings for rain they may be tweaked over the next couple of days there is the risk of Transport disruption some of the heaviest rain coming through the rush hour both on Thursday evening and into Friday morning and Friday afternoon and the risk of river flooding and surface water flooding but it's the South and Southwest where the heaviest rain will affect many of other places are going to see some very warm and at times sunny weather Big contrasts over the next few days and then all change again into next week you can find the latest on that in the 10day trend which is on our YouTube channel bye-bye