17/07/2024 – Heatwave on the way? – Met Office weather forecast UK

the heat is building across Southern areas to end the week but it's unlikely to last many more than three days of this 10day trend as we'll then return into the cooler more unsettled setup we've been in so far this July the reason we've been in that setup well we've been on the Northern side of the jet stream here's the jet stream here sweeping across the Atlantic and over the next few days its Position will change it becomes a more Amplified pattern diving down well to the south of the UK and taking low pressure systems up to the north and west of the UK but as we head towards the weekend Sunday most likely the return of the stronger jet core to affect the UK so it is going to turn a bit more unsettled by Sunday and certainly cooler again but before then as the jet stream Dives down to the South that will allow more of a southernly wind direction and that will allow us to tap into this warmer Continental Air the warmest Direction at this time of year so the heat will build slightly peaking on Friday before a weather front sweeps across the country introducing that fresher air from the north and west by Sunday so a bit of a change to come through the weekend but before then we do have that heat to build so it's only really going to build across South and Eastern areas of England and Wales actually to the north and west weather fronts are still going to affect these areas bringing cloudier skies and outbreaks so fairly light rain but fairly persistent rain so as I said in the peak of the heat we could see 28 Dees on Thursday that's probably the highest temperature we'll see on Thursday but widely across England and Wales will'll be in the mid 20s 25 degrees is quite likely even across Southern areas of Wales and some northern areas of England as well but where that cloud still lingers we'll still be in the higher teens possibly the mid teens across the far north and west and there is a bit of a breeze up across Northwestern areas where we're closer to low pressure systems there's very little change as we head into Friday apart from the fact that we'll start to see that heat build even further with strong Sunshine expected quite widely across England and Wales very high UV levels as well the rain will potentially be a slightly more restricted to further north and west bringing some drier weather to parts of Northern Ireland Northern England much of Scotland but they will be quite a bit more Cloud around here so potentially a little bit warmer extending further north across Northeastern areas of England Eastern Scotland still staying largely dry and seeing temperatures into the low 20s as well but it will be all that bit breezier further north and west but looking where the heat really builds you can see that as the oranges and reds start to arrive on the map 30 potentially 31° is possible for the greater London area but quite widely will'll be in those high 20s across many Central and Southeastern areas of England as well so very warm or hot day to come on Friday and then we're into that transition period Friday into Saturday so the further west you are the more likely you are to see that break down into the cooler weather weather earlier on in the day there's potential for a bit of a thundery breakdown as well either across parts of the southeast of the of England but also where this weather front lies we can see some very heavy bursts of rain becomes more and more likely as the day progresses there is some uncertainty on the timings of this weather front so that's something to keep up to date with over the next few days but ahead of the weather front we've still got that heat highs of around 29 possibly 30 if the weather front stay at Bay for just long enough for that heat to build a bit more widely across Eastern areas but I think that fresher feel is going to arrive as the day goes on from the West we'll be back down into the High Teens low 20s bit bit closer to average for this time of year and certainly fresher than it will have been for the for the end of this week to end the weekend so are we going to have a heatwave this week well first of all let's have a look at the Heatwave definition well the Heatwave definition depends on the threshold temperature for the region so quite widely across the UK that's 25° but as we get closer to the greater London region it increases up to 28° now you don't just need to see your Heatwave threshold temperature for one day you need it for three days in a row for it to be defined as a heat wave now the heat is most likely in the south and east and any heat wave potential is really only restricted to South Eastern Area so we need to zoom in on the south and east and we'll take 28° that's our highest threshold temperature as an example so Thursday is when that heat is starting to build the probability of 28° if you look very closely you can see is only restricted to London or the greater London region outside of that we will probably see some of those 27° just where those thresholds count so that could be our first day of the heat wave but only really for just a couple of locations and then Friday well that's when the heat is likely to Peak so there's a much greater probability of seeing that 28° or more 30 or 31 Dees is actually likely on Friday for a wider region of Southern and Central England into parts of South Wales as well so again it's this greater London region where we could be having our second day of the Heat Wave by this point but we need that third day so by Saturday we're starting to see that cooler air arrive from the west and that and so the heat will SL slowly start to push further east as it as we see that cooler air arrive and so there's the potential to see another 28° but that probability is getting lower as we head towards Saturday so there's potentially about a 50% chance that we can see that 28 degrees for the greater London area and some Southeastern areas so I think a few locations across the south and east could technically see a heat wave but for most of us it's going to be one or two days at Best of that heat before the cooler air arrives for the latter part of the weekend and that's because this weather front will be pushing its way eastwards through the country bringing in this fresher air in this more northwesterly re regime we do see a ridge of high pressure for a time on Sunday but then as we head into the start of next week we return to low pressures Sweeping in that's that jet stream returning moving us into a more changeable set up once again but we have got the Azor High starting to build in from the South and West so it's not going to be all wet and windy through next week actually the most likely regime for Monday and Tuesday next week is for this azor's High to extend its influence at least across Southern areas of the UK we could see Eastern areas still holding on to that wetter weather clearing away from the weekend but a ridge of higher pressure just for a couple of days Monday and Tuesday is looking fairly likely however it is a northwesterly Direction so it's unlikely to be anywhere near as hot as we're expecting to end this coming week and then as I said it's going to change again so turning more changeable yes we will see Ridges of higher pressure but we could see some low pressure returning as well so by the time we get to Thursday the 25th of July low pressure is moving in from the north and west returning to that more unsettled picture so I think West wind directions will dominate through much of next week we could see this high pressure building in from the south and that low pressure building in from the north so more unsettled weather is probably most likely across Northwestern areas more settled weather sometimes across Southern areas and we'll be battling between those two setups through much of next week here is the map for the or the probabilities of the different regimes for much of next week Blues show that lower pressure and the yellows and reds show the higher pressure so here we are to end the weekend Sunday the 25th 1st of July we've got that those Blues moving in that's low pressure moving in that cooler regime moving in by Sunday then Monday and Tuesday the yellows arrive now this is the azor's high so that's that South the more settled weather arriving from the south and west then we move back into more unsettled weather low pressure dominating again more of a northwesterly coming in to end the week Thursday and Friday so we'll be oscillating between troughs and ridges lows and highs through next week so potentially some more settled spells and as we've seen for the this week it doesn't take much for us to build the heat just for a couple of days but it doesn't look like we've got anything particularly prolonged or summer like on the way for the next 10 days away from the next few days but you can find out all the details on your forast for the next couple of days and further ahead by subscribing to our 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