Latest on Arctic Blast Arriving Tonight! 14th April 2024

welcome everyone back to weekly weather updates and in today's video going to have look at the latest from the live radar R for the ukv look at the precipitation and the temperature over the next 5 days as we are going to see more showers around for all areas as we head into this upcoming working week and it's going to be a lot colder for all as well the last few days temperatures across England Wales have largely been in the High Teens if not getting into the low 20s but this afternoon temperatures struggling around the mid teens and in the next couple of days temperatures May struggle to get towards the teens at all maybe only 11 or 12 degrees or even lower in some areas and this is all because we've got a big Mid-Atlantic Ridge and we are seeing lower pressure arriving from the north bringing cold polar maritine H with it now of course it is middle of April therefore it is impossible to see anything severely cold but this time of year it's a good six to 8 degrees below average and as we see from some of the long range charts this could hang around for the foreseeable future this is of recurring theme the past few days the ensembles not showing anything above average in terms of their ensemble mean for the next two weeks or so so unfortunately if you've got planned to the second half of April and you're hoping for something warmer it is looking like it could be pretty doubtful it is looking pretty chilly or at least nothing particularly warm for the next couple of weeks on the other hand though precipitation does still look like it going to remain fairly no uh fairly low not bone dry but definitely a lot Dyer than it has been recently so that's one positive we can take uh but of course it is going to be pretty chilly with those Northerly and northwesterly flows continuing to recur so do remember if you enjoy my videos make sure you like And subscribe and remember to follow me on Twitter as well the links in description now if you start on the live radar uh as you'll notice today temperatures are really down on yesterday and that's cuz over night last night we saw a cold front sweep through for most it was just a bit of drizzle and some thicker Cloud it did show uh what did symbolize quite a marked difference in the air mass about a 10° temperature drop maybe even more in terms of the upper air temperatures did have quite gradually so that's why we didn't see any huge precipitation with it but it has created quite a big change and that's why it's a much fresher feeling day today even with Sunshine still in the South and generally dry conditions it's a lot fresher and a lot cooler you can see further north though not the same story lots of precipitation moving in now this is pretty uh pretty widespread and pretty intense a little bit more than we anticipated we are expecting showers to be moving in because we are seeing some lower pressure creeping in from the north initially with this Northerly flow uh but yeah this is pretty intense and quite a bit heavier and more widespread than the models had made it out to be uh but this should slowly dissipate through the rest of this evening and it slowly drifts southwards and eastwards you can see a bit of snow over the Scottish mountains and this could become a bit more widespread in the coming days especially through Monday to Wednesday even to moderate Hills for even areas across Northern England we could see some snow not expecting anything to really towards low-lying areas maybe a bit of grapple in some of the heavier showers but the risk of wintriness persists even into the middle of April after you put on the temperatures the middle of the afternoon look at that only some yellows today East Anga still seeing perhaps mid teens we've got a bit of warmth or residual warmth at the surface but most areas further northwards start to see those Blues mixing in and we did see some pretty intense Reds across parts of France we're still seeing it in southern France but you can see where the cold front is Sweeping in we see that quite big change from yellows and blues towards some oranges and reds um it's kind of here just to the south of Paris l Berg into Germany it's this sort of line here that you can roughly take make out in the temperatures uh temperature chart here that is where the cold front is currently sitting uh as it brings cooler air in from the north now after you go over to the latest ukv you'll be able to see that we are uh continuing to see uh that precipitation slowly drift eastwards over the course of this evening you can see it is quite a bit more extensive uh than the ukv is making it out to be but generally it is Con vective showers continue to push in from the north now it could be pretty intense through tomorrow morning as we do see a lot of these showers moving in because of course we've seen a cold front move through bringing chillier air in but we're going to see further cold air moving through so a bit of an included front moving in here and you can see some pretty intense thundery showers essentially moving in and you see more windiness over Scotland especially being helped by the overnight hours Darkness allow those temperatures to drop more uh and of course with see some wintriness here to even moderate Hills now through the morning we could see this quite big Sall feature move through for Rush Hour through parts of Eastern and Southern England so do watch out for that if you have got plans it could be pretty intense as it moves through mov pretty quickly but could be a bit horrible or quite a bit horrible there for a time but as we head into the bulk of the day into the middle of the afternoon still plenty of sunshine and showers but those showers will be less intense and not quite as wide spread still a wintry flavor within them as we move through Monday evening into Tuesday it does turn drier still a few showers around through Tuesday afternoon but quite a bit more Sunshine around so even though it is going to feel chilly there temperatures low teens at best some areas not even getting into the double digits it is going to feel fresh for all it's going to be that sort of pattern where it looks really nice outside but it's going to feel pretty fresh and pretty cool indeed as we head into Wednesday a similar picture bit more Cloud around some persistent precipitation moving into to the Northwest uh but again similar sort of feel cold Northerly winds um and bit of sunshine around but still feeling pretty chilly now the reason why we're seeing thicker cloud in the North and the west and this more persistent rain is because we are going to see a slight shift in those air masses the cold air of course as I contined to say isn't going to hang around forever because it is the middle of April it's impossible to see this cold air embed itself uh if that norly flow gets cut off at all we will go milder and that's what could happen for a couple of days later this week we could see some briefly milder air coming in from the West not expecting it to be a huge influence but it could just bring a thicker cloud and some more persistent rain and could allow the temperatures to nudge up slightly higher more widely towards the mid teens as we see from some of the long range charts and the ensembles it really is just an uptick for a couple of days back towards average maybe even still slightly below average and then we could see another drop off towards next weekend uh and the following week now do look at the moment you can see cold air is in is in for all but some even colder air arrives into tomorrow morning and that's why we're going to see that very heavy rain so again another weak weather front moving through but we're going to see quite a bit of convection along it as we head through Monday into Tuesday still looking pretty chilly with cold air continuing to move in and then eventually into Wednesday and Thursday we see some slightly less cold air moving in from the West now it's not going to basically dominate all too much you see we just about get towards average which is around the 1 or two degree Mark um but it is going to be too much of an influence we are likely to see cooler air to move back in for the weekend and the subsequent day so temporarily turning a little bit milder later this week but most likely still remaining cool or cold all the way into the final 10 days of April now do look at the max temperatures you can see as we head into this afternoon temp just about nudging up towards maybe the low to mid teens at best maybe a 14 or 15° but feeling a lot of fresher out there as we head into tomorrow look at that really fresh the morning across parts of Scotland and Northern England Northern Ireland low single digits maybe even getting towards freezing and by the afternoon temperatures really struggling around the 5 to 11 Dee Mark so really quite chilly for the time of year as we move into Tuesday overnight temperatures again pretty chilly mid to low single digits for many and into the afternoon still uh pretty chilly but per seeing those temperatures may be rising slightly High 13 or 14 and that's because we're seeing a bit more Sunshine around same can be said into Wednesday pretty cold night again widely towards the low single digits and then into the afternoon again struggling around that 10 to 13° Mark some sunshine around some thicker cloud in places and generally dry conditions but it's all because the air mass is pretty cold and then finally into Thursday temperatures Rising slightly thir 13 to 15° and it could nudge up slightly higher than that for Friday as we see that slightly milder air mass moving in but still don't expect anything particularly great it's unlikely to last all too long and it isn't particularly mild to it's just slightly milder than what we're seeing through the first few days of the week now if do look at the longer charts you'll be able to see that this is likely to last for much of the next couple of weeks now if we do look at the latest you see North to northwesty wind moving in over the coming days and eventually by Thursday into Friday today we see the high pressure topple slightly and that's what brings in the slightly milder air you see that from the upper air temperature charts here some slightly milder air moves in around the high for a time before we could start to see cooler or even colder air moving back in from the Northeast towards the end of this run a bit of a mixed bag here because we are very cold to mild air very close to mild air and very close to some very cold air as well so could be a little bit of a mix bag here in the longer range but not looking particularly mild upper red temperatures are remaining fairly cool you see plenty of Blues around yes some yellows mixing in but plenty of Blues all the way to the end of the run and of course as we progress towards the end of April the ensemble mean um or what we expect this time here is going to continue to rise even if those upper air temperatures do rise as well if they stay good 5 degrees below average which is looking likely at this stage it is still will to remain blue even if those upper a temperatures start to creep towards freezing or above freezing after two compare to the GM run again northwesty flow over the coming days briefly milder a coming in round the high but then look what happens we start to see a bit of a northeasterly flow coming in plenty of mild air to our South and our West but we just stay in that chilly cold air around the minus5 line on towards zero there keeping us pretty chilly all the way to the end of this run and you can see there's emphasized by looking at those Blues lots of cool cold air luckily for us we looks like we might miss the very cool air that does move into much of Europe there again it's not ridiculous in terms of actual upper air temperatures but for the time of year it's 10 to 12° lower average could be seeing quite a bit of snow over the Alps there in that sort of scenario so yeah very interesting seeing that maybe UK just about missing out on some of that colder air which is a positive signal if you want something slightly milder but it doesn't look particularly mild it just looks less cold if do compare to the east C MWF again North northwesty Wind moving in eventually the high pressure topples bringing slightly milder around for a time and then the high pressure moves North with again we start to see easterly winds open up for next week so a slightly different outcome um to the other runs but generally very similar with cool cold air coming in off the North Sea from Scandinavia so yeah temporary temporary mild moving in perhaps later this week for a time for cold air drifts back in off the North see and we can see this all exemplified on the ensembles so pretty chilly over the next s of four or five days slight uptick next weekend into the following days and then you can see actually lower slightly towards sort of the 23rd to 27th and then we could just get back towards average again but the overall theme is its average to below average for the for SE future significantly below average at times like later this week where for London we could be 6 to 8° below low average really quite chilly indeed there are some milder runs in the longer term but the majority are cool or pretty cold indeed and as I said at the start of the video the big positive or only positive is the precipitation signal it looks relatively small there are frequent spikes which doesn't mean we should expect showers but especially for southern areas furthest away from the moisture out uh with wind direction of course will be out in the North Atlantic we likely see kind of April Showers scenario ASAS if you're closer to the coast you're likely to see heavier showers but for London or anywhere in land the precipitation will be there but it's unlikely to be particularly widespread particularly frequent or particularly heavy at all you see lots of small spikes here indicating just days of sunshine and showers if you do look at the 2 met temperatures you'll be able to see big drop this week maybe only 10 to 12° on some of the days and even cooler in more rural spots and where we have more cloud cover then we can see a little uptick towards the weekend or later this week maybe back towards of 13 to 50 Dees and then we can see another drop there back towards maybe the 10 to 12 degree Mark before a slow uptick in the longer term which is inevitable as we progress towards may you can see the sea level pressure does remain fairly High some little drops in there but well above 1,50 M 15 M bars there for the majority of the run which indicates that we are fairly high pressure dominated and that's why we have low prec ation and if we finish by looking at the ecmwf ensembles it's the similar picture good few degrees below average for the whole of the run and significantly below average this upcoming week and then look at the control run and the operation run the thicker green and thicker blue lines remaining very cool or cold into the longer term maybe getting as much as 10° below average at times that could be pretty chilly indeed and could have some late season Frost even a bit wintriness and just a very cold feel for the final week or two of April that really would not be welcomed at all hopefully things improve uh in the longer range we still have uncertainty and hopefully things improve into early may but the headline for the moment is cold and remaining fairly dry but not bone dry showers around so anyway thanks for watching hope you have enjoyed subscribe if you're new and I'll see you again for another video soon [Applause]