Another Arctic Blast into April from Latest ECMWF? 23rd March 2024

welcome everyone back to weekly weather updates and in today's video we're going to have the latest from the live radar we'll look at the ukv going through the precipitation and the temperature over the next 5 days as it is remaining very unsettled perhaps even getting more unsettled into next week perhaps even pretty stormy but luckily temperatures will start to rise gradually as we have sinu a come down in the last day or two as we have some Arctic air moving in however that Arctic air May return as we head into April as we see from some of the longer range charts there is some fairly strong consistency now that we are going to be seeing some big Atlantic ridging maybe even a Greenland High developing and Northerly or northeasterly winds moving in now of course we are talking about early April so the cold air 2our North is losing its strength quite significantly now but there is still plausibility in a cold snap potential frosts cold feel and of course maybe even some wintriness so we have a look at that in the second half of the video so do remember if you enjoy my videos make sure you like And subscribe and remember to follow me on Twitter as well the links in description now do start on the live radar you can see we have Northerly winds in at the moment with quite cold upper air temperatures and a strong Sun we are seeing of typical April Showers sort of pattern yes end of March but it's that typical April Showers sort of patter pattern we have got uh got a very strong temperature contrast between very cold UPA temperatures slightly warmer surface temperatures because of that sun strength really fueling convective showers over the land and that's what we have sin today they are dying out through the evening of course as the sun does set but we still have an array of showers around with quite a few of them having hail cowp or SLE within them and of course the risk of some snow over the higher ground now if you been on the temperatures you can see it is colder today than it has been through the past week or two temperatures really struggling around that 7 to 9° Mark when you have been in the cloud and in the shade and with the wind picking up it has felt cold out there but I must say when you get in the sun those winds do fall light then it hasn't actually been all too bad we have to remember that we are heading into the middle part of spring now the sun is very strong or it's getting towards uh that really strong territory as we head towards the peak in June and July um so we do see Sunshine even with cold air it does still feel fairly Pleasant now we do go over to the latest ukv it is just coming out at the moment and it has actually just come out to 120 hours you can see all those showers clearing away through this evening of course sun goes down that convection starts to uh fall away and ex into Sunday still some showers across Scotland maybe a smacking across England and Wales with a little bit of a disturbance but for most it's a dry Sunday as that Northerly wind does get cut off in the upper a temperature slowly rise however Westerly winds starting to push back in as we see low pressure pushing back in and it's going to park itself over the top of us into the start of next week you see how slow moving this precipitation is as we head into Monday just giving deluges in many areas in the west even some snow over The High Ground of Scotland into Tuesday that rain tried to progress eastwards and you just look at the SP of rainfall moving in really quite heavy in places and we could see some more flooding issues and of course with cold air wrapped in within this there is the risk of some snow over Higher Ground as we end the last part of the week we could slowly see it starting to die down as we do see the pressure slowly rise but still plenty of showers around so it's looking really quite horrible and the reason for this is low pressure parked pretty much over the top of us it's really at its peak strength through through Monday and Tuesday and then it starts to fill in later in the week and that's why we do start to see those showers reduces the low moves and clears out to our West you see the pressures rising from the southeast see it is going to be fairly windy as well I wouldn't say absolutely stormy but could be some periods of very strong winds there perhaps through Thursday morning there is the risk of Stormy Weather within this and if we have a look at those upper a temperatures you see it is turning milder but still plenty of cool or cold air wrapped in within the low just not quite as cold as it has been over the past 24 hours or so if you look at the back temperatures you see the afternoon temperatures maxing at 7 to 9° but of course as said with the sunshine feeling a little bit warmer than that when you do have the Sun but of course feeling colder than that when it's cloudy with precipitation falling and those winds picking up into tomorrow a bit of a frost further north it's but it'll be dependent on cloud amounts and by tomorrow afternoon we could just about get into double digits across England and Wales 10 to 12° similar pattern as we head into Monday again could be an isolated Frost and then into the afternoon again could see 10 to 12 degrees but much colder in Scotland Tuesday again a similar picture again could see 10 to 12 degrees but we still see a reduction in those those temperatures in the west because precipitation is moving in and you see that is the same as we're heading to Wednesday where those milder temperatures are really only where we see the rainfall SL snowfall not moving in so even though the operate temperatures do R into next week still remaining fairly chilly as we do see lots of precipitation falling evaporative cooling coming in with that and into Thursday a similar picture 10 to 12 degrees further south and eastwards where it's slightly drier but further northwards and westwards more showers around more cloud and more precipitation in general it's feeling a bit colder now if you do have a look at the longer range you'll be able to see how it is turning incredibly unsettled next week with big low pressure Parks over the top of us and then it could be turning increasingly colder as we head into early April no concrete signal at this stage but definitely seeing some strong Trends and some consistency between the models in the overall synoptics of course we'll have to eyon out the details which does include air masses because this time this time of year you can see a very cold Northerly or you can kind of see a bit of an iffy northly dependent on where the remnants of the tropis polar vortex do sit it can see the norly winds in at the moment eventually those do uh cease and we see a very subtly tracking jet stream and then low pressure parking over the top of us look how unsettled that is very low pressure very deep so it's going to mean strengthening winds as we saw from the ukb some potentially very Gusty winds if we do see a little low spin up and again lots of showers and areas of rain as it fills in by the end of the week into the Easter weekend but we're still under generally lower pressure so do expect showers through that Easter weekend into the final days and the final days of March but hopefully it won't be as heavy and disruptive as during the middle part of next week Beyond that though look at that ridging up towards Greenland and trying to push a northly wind in and it actually turns pretty cold indeed against souly Jack and Jet Stream and persistent Atlantic ridging means cold air is just getting pushed our way as I said it's not going to be anything too spectacular because remember the cold nor is running out the strength of Sun is going to warm up these air masses uh multiple times faster than they would in Mid Winter and of course um we do see uh those cold that cold air struggling to come our way and it does get cut off at times but it's a generally a pretty cold feel plenty of below average temperatures over the next week or two from this GFS run I said Not Guaranteed but definitely seeing a very strong signal for this Atlantic ridging with the risk of cold air moving back in for early April said it's similar for the GM uh again that Southern Track and jet stream very deep blows over the top of us and again we see that high pressure building towards Greenland Northerly winds pushing in but as I said not all Northerly equal here cold air is there but it's well toward West instead but just in slightly chilly air below average but nothing ridiculous and that's all because of the positioning of the trops for opponent of Vex exactly where all that cold air goes because as I said this time of year we're running out of that cold air uh and in January any Northerly wind would be cold if not very cold as begin into early April as it's very dependent on where that c cold air does remain so GM is chilly shows a pretty cold synoptic pattern doesn't quite pull pull off anything too crazy just still chilly and below average if do compar to the EF unfortunately the midday run hasn't fully come out so have to look at the midnight run but it is broadly similar low pressure parking over the top of us and again high pressure building towards Greenland and trying to push in Northerly winds you see very cold air is heading our way and this e the F could be pretty potent indeed see the minus ISS moving into Scotland minus 15 ice firm's not too far away now I don't think there's any chance the minus 50 ice firm moves in it's way too late in the year but the minus 10 I firm could move in we could get some the- 7 to- 8 even through Southern England which would be very cold for the time of year with the average uper temperatures now creeping into the low single digit so it would be 10 plus degrees below average in places so yeah would be incredibly cold if this pattern came off and I said it's all due to the fact that the tropospheric pull Vortex is displaced just to our North essentially meaning this northly wind is very cold if we were let's say seeing a northly wind in the North Atlantic it wouldn't be as cold because that cold air isn't directly uh getting fed into so we'll have to see exactly what happens but you see all three main operational runs all show something cold potentially even very cold into early April as I said with the ensembles we've not got complete consistency but definitely strong Trends you see lots of cold runs appearing in the L ter but I said at the moment majority around average see the op temperature slowly creeping up through the next few days with a lot of precipitation in the middle of the week I said it mostly will be favored further westwards where those lows Park up of course as you look from the overall synoptics got darker Blues over all of us there is going to be lots of showers around but the heaviest stuff is going to be further westwards towards the cent of the Lowe's and where those weather fronts and and uded fronts could really just sit see it's a cold feel pren of precipitation around if we do look at those two me temperatures you can see really strugging is getting into the double digits over the next week or so I said could see 10 to 12 degrees at times but that's not breaking double digits by any major margin as we went into early April of course double digits become easy and easier by the day as we head towards Summer but still struggling there into early April around the 11 or 12 degree Mark as cold air could has said filter back in and keep us pretty chilly if do compare to the ecmwf looking at that midnight run again very similar pattern trending upwards over the next week maybe slightly higher than average into the Easter Weekend by a degree or two and then we see a drop quite a big drop from some on some members perhaps ewf on some was a little bit more bullish here with a colder pattern into early April again we'll have to keep a very close eye on it but all three operational runs are showing a pretty cold and optic pattern ined and it's going to be very interesting to watch what happens with that over the coming days so anyway thanks for watching you have enjoyed make sure to wrap up warm and stay dry over the next few days hopefully something dry and warmer is on the horizon but but I don't think it will be in the next week or two There's Hope though as we head into the middle of April and slowly head towards Summer conditions so said thanks for watching hope you enjoyed subscribe if you're new and I'll see you again for another video [Applause] soon