Another Warning for More Severe Thunderstorms on Monday! 1st September 2024

welcome everyone back to weekly weather updates and in today's video we going to have at the latest from the live radar Run for the weather warnings so to do have more thunderstorm warnings issued over the next 36 hours uh for the rest of Sunday and for the whole of Monday for quite large areas as we are going to see continued outbreaks of storms now look at that in detail on the latest ukv and a ram runs looking at where the highest risk is uh it does look like it could transition further northwards through Monday still further southwards is is possible but I think the main focus will be further northwards and then of course we'll have a look at the longer range from the GFS GM East and the earth and the ensembles because although right now it's feeling like a real extension of summer as we head into the first few days of September it does look like autumnal conditions could be on the horizon in around a week to 10 days time star to see some consistency now that cooler more unsettled fresher air masses could be returning uh come next working week so do remember if you enjo my videos make sure you like And subscribe and remember to follow me on Twitter as well the links in description now to start on the live radar it has been another very warm hot day even warmer than what we've seen the past week also real pick up in temperatures for the first day of September but it has also been accompanied by some thunderstorms in places now we have got a yellow warning in force for the rest of to day and you can see we have got thunderstorms still going on as I'm recording this around 700 p.m. now in yesterday's video if you did watch that we were very uncertain about these thunderstorms because the ukv run yesterday we had a 3:00 a.m. run and the 300 p.m. run the 3 a.m. run we're showing quite widespread thunderstorms like what we're actually seeing the 300 p.m. run we're showing nothing at all so we were very much on the fence over whether we actually see any storms and in reality we have seen St so it does look like that 300 p.m. ukv run was a little bit anomalous there so we have the S storm so thankfully we did have a warning in force we did look at other runs as well but storms breaking out at the moment they could die out a little bit overnight but then really pick up through Monday morning now where we have avoided the storms I said it's been a very warm hot day and if we do put the temperatures at 7:00 p.m. it is still very warm across parts of Eastern and Southern England really just east of where we see no storms where those storms are initiated that's where we've got slightly cooler air and on that temperature boundary that's where we are seeing those storms breaking out slight instability allowing that in the Southeast though we've got the very hot and humid air mass fully in control and has been pretty oppressive today you wouldn't uh you you probably would be able to perfectly Swap this day for a day in July um yeah it's pretty ridiculous thinking that this is the first day of September September and around 6 weeks time we could be talking about frosts uh but it feels like we're in the tropics today now that warm feel will continue over the next couple of couple of days but it's not going to last at this sort of temperature and of course it is this time of year temperes will drop inevitably air masses can't hold this much heat this far northwards into September so it's still going to be warm for the rest of this week could be dry could be sunny could still feel summery in many areas but just not quite this oppressive which I think a lot of people will be thankful for now I do put on the temperatures you can see from that weather here we've got widespread 27 to 29 deges uh so pretty much what we expected maybe even slightly higher than what we expected um up and down the country really especially in that Southern and Eastern Corner though but even areas further north with seeing mid to high 20s l e roal Air Force Base Shing 31 I do think that is an anomalous result we had this last week where we saw that there it was a couple of degrees higher than other stations so perhaps there's a little bit of an issue going on there but if we take sort of the average of the rest of them it's 27 to 29 so very warm very oppressive and very summary to start the first day of autumn now do look at the weather warnings now we have got a thunderstorm warning issued for the rest of today it's the same warning we looked at yesterday it's just been extended um to last all the way through the evening and ex see it's for that section from Central Southern and Southwestern England through Wales the West Midlands up towards generally Northern England up towards Southern and Eastern Scotland it'll expire at midnight tonight and again 340 mm in less than an hour maybe 60 to 80 mm and if we do go back to the live radar we'll be able to see those storms breaking out right now you see there is one area of storms just towards West Midlands this started across central Southern England where there's another small batch of storms there and it's headed slowing northwards throughout the day and then we've had this other area of heavy showers with a few storms mixed in it slowly heading northwards as well these could die out a little bit overnight tonight but could pick up again as we head into the morning if we go back to the weather warnings we have got warnings issued for Monday and it's a quite a big uh bit more widespread this warning covering the majority of England about half of Wales and much of Southern and Eastern Scotland uh and again I don't think all areas in here are going to see storms but I think this is the highrisk Zone it's from midnight tonight until midnight tomorrow so the full 24 hours of Tuesday again we won't see storms throughout the full 24 hours but within here the the storm risk is high you can see on Monday areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing from overnight and expected to continue to affect parts of the UK through the day the focus for storms and impact is expected to gradually move East later in the day and that is expected with that low pressure slowly nudging in from the west 30 to 40 mm in a couple of hours maybe 60 to 80 mm in a couple spots frequent lightning and hail will be additional hazards again medium impact and very low likelihood so again another blanket thunderstorm warning if you are in this Zone it's not guaranteed you'll see a storm it's not even guaranteed you'll see any rain but this is the region where we expect storms to break out somewhere now do look at the ukv now uh we'll be able to look at the focus for those storms through the rest of tonight you can see the storms breaking out early this afternoon slowly transitioning northwards and you see they die out a little bit overnight tonight but then we could see a few more isolated storms across parts of the East Midlands Northeast England breaking out through the early hours of Monday and then really picking up through the morning with a stretch of storms through much of the Midlands up towards Northern and Northwestern England does look like it's a a line ofel in there so it could be really Lively indeed and it slowly Transitions northwards and eastwards throughout the west of Monday and then into Monday evening more storms breaking outr Central and Eastern England slowly decaying into Tuesday so you can see not all areas here are going to see thund thunderstorms all 24 hours of Monday but it's going to slowly move around initially across central western areas transition northwards through the day and then we can see another batch of storms breaking out in eastern areas through the afternoon and and evening now if we do head uh later through Tuesday you can see eventually into Tuesday afternoon we do see much uh fresher conditions with a Westerly flow again fresher in terms of relative it's still going to be warm it's still going to be above average just fresher compared to what we've had today no 28 or 29 degrees here on Tuesday as we head through Wednesday we do see higher pressure starting to make a bit more of control so still some showers around but it is turning drier and then into Thursday we could see some rain coming in from the West uh sorry from the east in the southern areas again we need to keep a close eye on that cuz high pressure is to our North trying to extend in but here it keeps lower pressure to our South with a bit of a cut off low producing these showers we'll have to wait and see near the time uh for the severity and widespread nature of that but there could be some more extensive rain there through Thursday in southern areas we have to wait and see now do put on the upper air temperatures you can see it is very warm at the moment up temperatures up towards the high 17 18° proper summery Heatwave air mass but it is moving away through Monday with slightly cooler conditions pushing in and through Tuesday still looking average to above average just nowhere near as hot as it is today as we transition into Wednesday actually some slightly fresher conditions coming for a time but later in the week we do see the warmth return especially further Norths for Friday again it's stuck under that higher pressure Southern areas could have more lower pressures so kind of a bit of a roll reversal high pressure actually to our north and east pulling it an easterly wind very warm air masses still across Europe this would be cold in about 2 months time but right now it is still warm and then that cooler air is pushed further Southward so we have to wait and see later this week but brief cool down during the early part early middle part of the week then it could warm up again towards the latter part of the week into the weekend and then that following week where the risk of much fresher conditions does come in now do look at that the max temperatures you can see today we look at that widely mid to high 20s and reality is actually been slightly hotter than this so ukv underdoing it a little bit here as we head into Monday temperatures could be warm once again low to mid 20s again could see 25 26 but I do think again it'll be dependent on the thunderstorms as we head into Tuesday it will be a little bit fresher more widely 18 to kind of 22° still warm still Pleasant for September uh and then Wednesday similar conditions maybe more towards the high 18s and then into Thursday starting to warm up from the west but with more of that rain in Southern areas it could be slightly fresher then I'm expecting Friday to be much warm you see by 3:00 a.m. it's still 17 18° so very muggy conditions could return for the latter part of the week we'll have to see exactly how it does play out for that rain on Thursday cuz that will have a big impact on the temperatures but regardless it looks warm it looks like it could be turning muggier and it looks like it could be turning drier once again through Friday Saturday and Sunday now I also want to compare the thunderstorms over the next 24 hours with the latest aone run you can see the thunderstorms breaking out this afternoon slowly transitioning northwards and really where we expect at the moment we got that area towards the West Midlands down towards Southwest England and we have that area just towards Northern England into Scotland now that will continue over the coming hours and it could have bit of a lull during the late hours of this evening still quite active across parts of Wales but then it's as we head into Monday morning activity could really pick up kind of following on the back of those storms in Wales to a larger system and maybe some storms further eastwards and then just generally lots of heavy rain spiraling in during the afternoon not really as much of a big thunderstorm outbreak during the afternoon evening in eastern areas showers breaking out but not many darker Reds there so again a little bit of skepticism with how much activity we will see but definitely looks like big batch of heavy rain and storms through the morning slowly transitioning northwards throughout the day and then more outbreaks of showers with some isolated storms throughout the rest of Monday afternoon slowly dying out into Tuesday so got a lot of activity from the aonan not a very not particularly easy setup to four cards cuz kind of got multiple little areas popping up that could all merge together we could see some popup storms uh we're seeing um storms sort of developing within little troughs so it is a quite a big mix of conditions with those storms out there at the moment very difficult to predict the best way really to look at this is if you have got plans if you are planning to go out just have a look at the live radar and look to the South and to the Southwest specifically tomorrow that's where everything will be coming from so if you can see 50 Mi to Southwest there are thunderstorms very close by then you might want to either delay what your plan are or maybe do it very quickly these storms will be moving through quite quickly um and it's that Southwest the direction that they will be coming from so I think that's the best strategy really in these sort of scenarios where it is very much popup storms small little areas that could really activate a very short notice uh the best way is to have a look at that live radar now do have a look at the long range now to finish the video if we start on the GFS you can see we've got this little trough developing with between these two areas of high pressure and this is what's producing those thunderstorms at the moment eventually that trough will fill in and we see higher pressure return for later this week but we still got the remnants of that low just to ours South and it's how much that impacts England or Wales will decide how much rain we see Thursday maybe into Friday but for northern areas it's much drier and if we put on the air mass it is actually quite a lot warmer as well now to the weekend we see that low trying to push northwards but it does kind of lose its intent it so it's very touch and go here whether we stay dry and warm or whether we go thundery once again but the one thing we are seeing is if you watch those greens in the North Atlantic unfortunately the following working week they start to come our way low pressure starts to push in off the Atlantic and we start to see these much fresher conditions pushing in again it doesn't look too horrible here uh because we are still in September so the air masses aren't horrible or terrible or anything really wintry but if we put in the temperature deviation lots more blues heading in off the North Atlantic a lot more than what we're seeing at the moment where it's mainly yellows and oranges with the brief pulse of blue at times very warm perhaps later this week but it's in that longer range we swap the yellows and oranges for a lot more Blues as we do see the jet stream starts activate look at the 300 HPA wind jet stre starts activate coming in from a flat Westerly picking up cool air that is starting to develop across Greenland into the backside of these low pressure systems and generally turning things cooler and more unsettled a more traditional autumnal PN could be coming up for the middle 3rd of September so yes does look like we'll see a bit of an extension of Summer throughout the rest of this upcoming week but into the following week it could cool down quite significantly now do look at the latest GM again we do see that little low pressure system involved D at the moment higher pressure extends in towards later this week turning it much drier and warmer that low is much further southwards and nowhere near is intense actually it looks really quite Pleasant for later this week into next weekend but similar to the GFS those lows exit out of Iceland and Greenland and head our way turning much fresher indeed towards day 10 and you can see this with all these Blues developing on the upper air temperature deviations so turning much much fresher into the following week unfortunately and again not only will it be cooler uh cooler air masses um it will also be rain and if we do look at the surface temperatures you can see Max 15 to 17 degre Again not terrible but a lot cooler than what we've seen today and what we'll see for the rest of this week 5 degre cooler than uh five to sort of 8 degrees cooler than much of the highs this week and it will also be the rain coming in off the Atlantic lots of showers and lots of fresher conditions and finally if we compare to the ecmwf again we've got that small low pressure system involved at the moment high pressure extends in later this week that low to our South is nowhere to be seen so again ukv GFS developing that maybe a little bit by themselves at the moment upper air temperatures are looking warm and very pleasant all the way to later this week and then eventually towards day 10 look at that proper freshh Arctic air starts to move in and it would turn pretty chilly indeed with this with the first kind of proper north to North westly Wind that we've seen in months it's bound to happen we are heading towards winter but it's quite it could be quite a shock to the system going from mid to high 20s on the weekend to maybe only mid teens here or low teens by the middle of the week again it is yeah looking very very chilly with that air mass pushing in again if you look at those upper at temperatures getting below freezing minus one-2 or even cooler and that's the kind of the average winter air starting to move in unfortunately now we can see this all on the latest ensembles these are the latest GFS the midday run it's just running at the moment so it's not fully out but we've got majority of days we've got 14 of the days here you can see very warm at the moment dropping towards average for a couple of days this week and then back towards average by later this week but lot lot of precipitation here bit of a contrast what we saw from the ECM F operational which and the GM which had that low pressure nowhere to be seen towards South so that's still something we need to decipher but much warmer later this week and into the weekend and then as we head into the following week around that 10th 11th of September we see quite a big drop to average or even below average for the middle to second half of that following week and we'll take a big hit to those two meter temperatures widely still 20 to 25 5 deg this week and then it could be dropping more towards the teens mid teens for the following week and if you compare to the ecmwf again it's broadly similar over the next week to 10 days very warm in the moment dropping towards average for the middle part of the week maybe slightly below average for a period of time then above average later this week precipitation is there nowhere near as frequent uh given there are more Ensemble members showing here again that's something we'll have to decipher later this week definitely though dryer further northwards and then a big drop off in in the following week with more precipitation so again strong signal that it could be turning much cooler and much more unsettled as we head into the second and third week of September so still got lots of summary conditions coming up over the next few days lots of hot weather still in places especially um later this week could be seeing mid to high 20s again in a few spots again little bit of uncertainty with the rain with that and the next few days we'll be humid we'll be warm load to mid 20s for many and there will be a lot of thunderstorms as well so do stay safe out there and if you don't like this heat you want something cooler then as I said that is looking like it on on the horizon with much fresher conditions returning for uh in around of s 8 n days time so anyway thanks for watching hope you enjoyed subscribe if you're new and I'll see you again 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