First Arctic Blast of the Autumn Arriving This Week! 8th September 2024

welcome everyone back to weekly weather updates and in today's video we going to have the latest from the live radar Run for the UK we have the precipitation and the temperature over the next five days there a very hot humid and thundery conditions we've seen over the past few days are going to finally clear through the early parts of this upcoming working week and it's going to be replaced but a much colder North to northwesterly winds as Arctic air does make its first real appearance since probably May time temperatures will feel very cold and it will be below average and there is even the risk for some areas in Scotland we could see the first Frost of the Autumn now it's not too uncommon to see frosts H in September but after the very warm humid conditions we've seen this past week it is going to be a real shock to the system it's not even going to be that dry either there's going to be plenty of showers around and potentially longer spells of rain as well is still a pretty unsettled air mass just coming in from the Northwest instead of the south or east like it has done this week as I said we'll look at the details of that on the ukv and then we'll look at the longer term prospects on the longer range models where it does look like there is some hope for the second half of September with potentially some warmer drier higher pressure starting to make a return again uncertainty with that that is definitely appearing uh quite consistently within the models now so do remember if if you enjoy my videos make you like And subscribe and remember to follow me on Twitter as well the link is in the description now if you start on the live radar you can see we've still got this big area of rain stretching across many Western areas it was slightly further westwards earlier today but it's now transitioning further east with still it is still really quite heavy along this frontal system now this was originally thunderstorms across northern France it headed through the South and the East over night last night Saturday into Sunday they gave some really Lively conditions through the early hours of the morning those thunderstorms faded away into this longer spell of precipitation has really lingered through much of Sunday in the west it is clearing now but it has dumped a lot of rain over the course of Sunday and some of the heaviest pulses have actually been outside of the yellow warning that has now expired so I was a little bit surprised we didn't see that warning extended as the latest models we saw yesterday did extend this rain slightly further northwards and westwards um than models uh before that did and that's why I thought that the Northwest had been cut off in the far west of Wales but as we'll see in a minute with the past 24-hour precipitation total some areas outside of the warning Zone have seen a lot of rain over the past 24 hours now you could argue that it's not the accumulation of rain we've seen in other regions over the past 3 or 4 days we've had some Relentless heavy thundery rain but still I'm surprised we hadn't seen that warning issue because of the relentlessness of this precipitation now further eastwards it is drier right now as I'm recording this just before 9:00 p.m. but we have seen a lots of Hefty thundery showers especially through the afternoon which are now fading away maybe there still a line of storms here towards Lincoln but most of the heavy rain now is across northern France as this is where the center of the low is now clearing out to our East you can see the whole low pressure system here with the outer bands of its weather front is now completely clearing this cutle flow should head to our East and then it opens the door to northwesterly winds now do put on the temperatures I said just before 9: you can see it's not been a terribly warm day today lots of cloud around and Rain of course so temperatures haven't been abysmal because we still have warm air around but it's been nowhere near as warm as it has been the past few days especially in those areas across the Midlands and Northern England we're got up to the high 20s on Friday we're not going to see any of that in the next week or so now I do also want to have a look at the past 24-hour precipitation just to show you where we've seen those highest totals as expected we saw lots of thunderstorms in the South and the East and again you can see where those yellow dots are that's where we saw some really intense bursts of rain only last night um and that's widely last night but also during today you can see where the pop-up storms just to the north of London there from much of Harford into bedfordshire out towards West towards reading Oxford Swindon down towards Salsbury and then across parts of su and Kent down toward tumbridge there real big yellow pulse so looks like a pre stationary storm there earlier and then further westwards you can see more darker greens and yellows this is primarily for persistent rain still some yellow pulses here indicating some torrential patches especially here towards Shrewsberry saw some very heavy rain and also further north and westwards towards Liverpool up towards Blackpool Southport for all the area seeing lots of rain today and weren't actually in the weather warning so I'm surprised we didn't see it extended up here as I said a few minutes ago but further westwards across Scotland Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland for once seeing very little rain while England and Wales get absolutely soaked um but it will be changing over the next few days as that wind does shift Direction now do don't have any weather warnings uh in store anymore they have expired I'm surprised especially where that Western rain is it's expired this early thought it could have been extended perhaps towards midnight but regardless it's now expired and we'll now head on to the ukv you can see all those heavy thundery showers earlier now fading away and that rain in the west starting to dissipate the ukv has it dissipating very quickly throughout the evening and heading eastwards by midnight really not much at all again it'll be interesting to watch that because at the moment at 9:00 p.m. it's still pretty Lively especially up towards the Lake District the Peak District and Northwestern areas as we head through Monday you can see it is a drier day some showers around in the North and the west and that wind direction is changing it's a bit of a transition day on Monday so it's not particularly cold but it is turning fresher and by Tuesday northern areas are going to be much fresher as you can see a much colder Atlantic or North Atlantic or even Arctic depending what you want to call it this time of the year cuz it's not terribly cold but its Origins are directly from Greenland and the Arctic you can see through Tuesday rain and cloud in the South but still hanging on to a bit of warmer air further northwards much cooler much more unsettled as that Arctic air moves in and then for Wednesday all areas are in that much fresher air and the big notable thing is the snow um snow line here has appeared which has indicat that we've got snow falling on this chart you can see it here for the highlands of Scotland again Not Unusual to see a bit of snow over the highest ground through September maybe a little bit more unusual being the first half of September but not unusual at all for SE September the unusual fact is the fact is coming off such a warm week some of these regions were 25° on Friday by Wednesday morning there could be some snow falling out the sky again no settling or anything like that no issues but it could be a little bit photogenic for a time if you do live over some higher Hills as we head through Wednesday it's a much colder day for all and lots of heavy showers pushing in this is kind of the April Showers regime uh but happening in September we've got a much colder upper air temperatures warmer surface conditions and as a result we see some quite significant convection that continues into Thursday maybe less convection around but still cold and unsettled with a few showers but generally a bit of a dry theme and then for Friday more heavy persistent rain moving in from the West as we see another low starting to arrive that could be the sign of that wind direction shifting a bit more to a West or southwesterly so yes staying unsettled but perhaps turning a little bit warmer do look at the upper a temperat you can see it's still warm and it will be warm through the rest of this evening into Monday for some Southern and Eastern areas and you can see Monday into Tuesday is transitioning Tuesday though much cold rare Mass moving in from the Northwest and it moves in for all by Wednesday Wednesday looks like a really quite cold day same with Thursday Theus 4 orus 5 isce of firm moving in for Scotland that is very cold indeed for September and you eventually see warmer at is appearing for Friday so not lasting all too long 3 or 4 days with this cold air um unfortunately the air mass will be warming up again back towards average by the end of the week into the weekend now if we do have a look at those surface temperatures you'll be able to see that it's going to take a significant hit over the coming days Monday afternoon temperatures not abysmal but not anywhere near as good as been recently 17 18 degrees at best more towards low double digits further northwards into Tuesday much colder for the norford maybe single digits for Samaras of Scotland Maybe still touching 18 or 19 in the far Southeast but by Wednesday all will be really quite cold Highlands of Scotland could see a frost there some blues appearing and many areas mid to high single digits at best so quite a cold start indeed to Wednesday and you can see by the afternoon notic warm at all many areas struggling to be 14 or 15° most likely will be the coldest day we've seen for many many months probably since spring back in May time if we do have a look at Thursday very similar maybe a frost in the north and by the afternoon again touching 13 to 15° at best and then into Friday another very cold morning maybe more widely cold through that period maybe only four or five degrees 3 degrees potentially even for parts of England and Wales there Friday afternoon temperatures maybe slightly high as that air mass starts to shift toor Wesley 15 to maybe 16 or 17 as you can see it is going to warm up slightly towards the end of the week and probably will continue that momentum into the weekend but definitely this working week is looking pretty cold indeed there will be showers around but it won't be wash out which is a positive but yes could be pretty freezing cold indeed and again that doesn't even add the wind chill these temperatures as said feel like temperatures will be quite a bit colder now do head over to the GFS now and have a look at the longer term prospects again you can see that cut off low clearing to our East those North North westly winds arriving for much this week really quite if this happened in the middle of winter we would be talking about some very cold conditions coming straight from Greenland and spard and probably pretty widespread snow and frost but of course being early September it is just going to bring a bit of a chill to the air making us feel like we're in late Autumn not Early Autumn you can see though into the next weekend we do see that wind direction shift to more of a Westerly high pressure does start to build in but we still see some lows riding to the north right at the end of the run though high pressure is trying to build in but still coming up against the strong Atlantic actually does push up a southerly wind actually could down very warm there but would likely be unsettled because those lows keep trying to push in you can see though over the next few days a very cold air mass moving in if we look at the Blue uh the temperature deviation dark Blues appearing 8 to 10° below average and the potential equivalent temperature look at that really quite cold I said the coldest air mass we've likely seen since May time so yeah very very chilly it's always going to happen through September and October uh but it's just the fact that it's come off such a warm period this week going from one extrem to the other if you do look at the latest GM again that cut off low clears to our East again we see that North northwesterly Wind appearing and then eventually gets cut off by Westerly flow staying unsettled but turning a bit milder and then toward day 10 signs of high pressure extending from the aorus could start to be in more of an influence again we'll have to wait and see for the exact details on that uh as said for the short to medium term is looking cool and unsettled but perhaps as I said tensi of signs of more dri higher pressure building in and then finally if we compare to the ecmwf again broadly very similar norly winds with that low uh with that um low pressure clearing to the east eventually though we're go to more of westle flow for next weekend but you can see remaining unsettled right at day 10 though we do see some higher pressure building in it's not particularly organized AA of high pressure but high pressure nonetheless and it is building with warm air masses so actually if we go towards the surface wouldn't be surprised to these temperatures more likely in the mid High te maybe even low 20s again we're looking at midnight here but if we were in the daytime it probably wouldn't be too bad at all so it could be very up and down over the next couple of weeks now if you do have a look at the ensembles you can see much colder this upcoming working week around 8° below average big big dip there but does recover quite quickly towards next weekend and you can see it's remains reasonbly unsettled not massive and back towards average yes signs it could be more above average but still it's pretty tentative at this stage and then finally we just compare to ecmwf ensembles you can see it's broadly very very similar much colder this week remaining unsettled for the foreseeable future but not complete wash out conditions just lots of frequent but Lower Spikes indicating just generally a shower Outlook and you can see longer range more uh warmer runs appearing and maybe some slight dips in those percipitation spite some dyri little patches appearing again though definitely nothing concrete just tensive signs of something a bit warmer and drier we'll have to wait and see exactly how it does play out over the next couple of weeks but one thing we can say is it is going to be a pretty cold week this week with that Northerly wind coming in so if you are out at about especially early in the morning or late at night probably a good good choice to bring a coat maybe even hat and gloves considering some areas could be mid to low single digits at times those are winter sort of temperatures so as I said thanks for watching hope you enjoyed subscribe if you're new and I'll see you again for another video soon