Warnings Issued for Severe Thunderstorms This Weekend! 31st August 2024

welcome everyone back to weekly weather updates and in today's video we're going to have at the latest from the live radar Run for the weather warnings as we do have a yellow thunderstorm warning issued through Sunday for parts of England as we are going to see the risk of severe thunderstorms really ramping up over the next 12 hours or so we look at all that in detail on the latest ukv and a ro runs looking at the risk of thunderstorms through Sunday and Monday yes we have a warning issued Sunday but to be honest from what I'm seeing on the models at the moment the risk actually is probably higher through Monday so we'll have to wait and see whether the a warning gets issued for Monday as well and then we'll look at the longer range in the second half of the video as the first week of September does look pretty warm and humid of course with thunderstorms around as well and temperatures could be in the mid-20s but we are perhaps starting see hints of a bit of a cool down in around 10 days time perhaps doesn't it there not anything definitive nothing too concrete but definitely signs that fresher air masses could start to make an influence which is inevitable but uh of course we have had a lot of warm runs recently we're finally starting to see some cool runs starting to appear so do remember if you enjoy my videos make sure you like And subscribe and remember to follow me on twit as well the links in description as we start on the live radar calling this around 9:00 p.m. It's the final day of official meteorological summer and to be honest it hasn't actually been too great the forecast at least for uh for southern areas was pretty decent but where I was we saw a lot of cloud and it actually held those temperatures down quite substantially actually felt a little bit chilly not cold but just a little bit chilly than uh I had anticipated over the past couple of days but things should be better over the next couple of days with temperatures Rising as we do see some more sunshine and the air masses to climb you can see it's a pretty dry evening I said 9:00 p.m. I'm recording this and you can see across northern France we do have thunderstorms breaking out and it's this energy and this instability that is heading our way through Sunday and that's why there is that risk of severe thunderstorms over the next few days now do look at the temperatures this evening you can see it is still all right further southwards again it hasn't been amazing today said it has felt chilly um but actually the overnight temperatures will probably actually stay above average and that's why those are not dropping away too much at the moment because we have got an increasing air mass pushing in a warming air mass and we also have a lot of cloud activity so it does hold those temperatures in so that's why we're not seeing too many blues at the moment you see it's pretty humid across France and that is heading our way so yeah not great today uh but is definitely going to be on the up over the next day or two of course accompanied by those thunderstorms now do look at that thunderstorm warning it comes into Force 4:00 a.m. on Sunday until 900 p.m. on Sunday evening um again from the looks of the latest models we're very unlikely to see thunderstorms throughout this whole period but I think that is this kind of risk area and you see it's a strip from Southern England through all the way to Northeast England uh and again it all happen at various different timings in this region further southwards through the morning further northwards through the afternoon into the evening I think it's one of these situations where don't expect thunderstorms but don't be surprised if they do take off cuz as I said if we'll look at the latest run in a minute and to be honest they're not showing that much activity in this afternoon's runs this morning's runs were very active this afternoons not active really at all much more active on Monday so again it is a touch and go whether we actually do see much uh thunderstor activity you can see it is a small chance of flooding and disruption from those heavy showers and thunderstorms and if we do look at the further detail a few showers and Isis thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of Southern England on Saturday night we're not actually seeing much yet so already that bit is a little bit wobbly but by Sunday morning there's an increasing risk of more active and organized heavy shs and thunderstorms move into into or developing across parts of Souther so more in the morning than is the afternoon and evening it will transition further northwards the extent of these thums is very uncertain I I do definitely agree with that statement and many places will miss them but where they do occur 30 Vol mm again the usual hazards its medium impact very low likelihood now I have kind of been critical of the Met off his warning in recent videos not only uh not only recently but quite a lot over the past year or two saying um they should have more of these warnings where there is isn't a guarantee of anything really happening um because we have seen events we s thunderstorms been very active no warning issued because the models slightly underd did it or the chances were very low and we've seen this with other events as well so have been critical at times either the Met off is not issuing a warning or ising it very late so I'm actually even though I'm not seeing too much activity for tomorrow I am pleased that they have got a warning in force we've SE a couple of runs that showed some severe activity and using that they have put a warning in force even though there is no guarantees there will be much tomorrow so I do respect this warning um I'm do I'm pretty pretty pleased that this has actually been put into Force even though to be honest I'm not actually expecting much um because I said the models are pretty quiet through this afternoon and evening so if you go over to those models now and have a look at the ukv first of all as we head through the rest of this evening you can see not too much activity no thunderstorms overnight tonight but there's a risk of a few breaking out through the morning but look at this first sort of 6 hours of the warning even longer than that not seeing much activity at all so I said this afternoon's runs really ding down those thunderstorms for tomorrow and you see through the evening again a few OD showers breaking out but really not much activity it's really when the warning expires later on Sunday evening into the early hours of Monday we start to see activity taking off and a big line of thunderstorm extending from Southwest England Wales up towards Southern Scotland and seeing further extensive thunderstorms breaking out through Monday morning as well so as said the main activity from this latest run is Sunday night into Monday and through much of Monday there especially in Northern and Eastern areas very active indeed through the rest of Monday into Tuesday some perhaps more storms across East Anglia there and then as into Tuesday is a showery Outlook but drier and then into Wednesday again a few showers around but drier and generally more pleasant so you can see quite a lot of activity through Monday dying out through Tuesday to Thursday but very little on Sunday well we do have this warning in force now the reason why I think this warning has been enforced CU if we go back to the 3:00 a.m. run so we just looked at the 300 p.m. run for today we look at the 3:00 a.m. run a few storms breaking out around midnight we're not really seeing that on this latest run and then as we head into tomorrow morning into the afternoon quite extensive outbreak of thunderstorms across central Southern England transferring further northward so you can see the ukv earlier today really making a lot of activity on Sunday but the ukv from this afternoon not got much activity at all so that's why I'm very skeptical of thunderstorm through tomorrow we've got the same model with two different runs uh done today one showing quite a lot of activity warranted probably of a warning one showing no activity um and really actually a pretty pleasant day so uh again please they got the warning in force cuz we did see the more active active scenario then definitely people need to be warned but I do want just want to put that out there that there is quite a decent chance of youit 50/50 then nothing really happens at all now to go to latest run and have a look at the upper air temperatures you'll be able to see why it's potentially turning thundery and that is because the upper air temperatures are rising quite substantially overnight tonight into tomorrow maybe High Teens at 850 HPA by tomorrow afternoon again M will be reflected at the surface with sort of high 20s or low 30s like we would expect with this air mass because of the cloud and the risk of storms but as we head into Monday eventually that storm activity gets pushed away uh along with that very warm air and then for the rest of the week we're back into more average a maybe still above average but freshening up slightly perhaps uh but still above average still fairly warm if do look at the 2 me Max temperatures you can see as we head through Sunday afternoon high 20s is very possible across some Southern and Eastern areas again will be dependent on cloud and thunderstorms but as we had a look a second ago at those upper air temperatures definitely uh those uh air definitely that air mass is warm enough to see temperatures gting towards 30° maybe even higher but again Cav usual caveats are in place with the cloud and shower activity as we head into Monday it's still likely to be muggy low to mid 20s possible to Tuesday slightly fresher maybe low 20s and then into Wednesday again slightly fresher again maybe low 20s in some regions and into Thursday again High team low 20s so even though it's snow near as warm through Tuesday it's a Thursday is still above average because we have to remember we're in September now we can't expect 20 plus degrees every day like we do in the summer months we have to be expecting more teens eventually transition to low teens through October and then eventually single digits by November so we can't expect those uh 20 plus degree temperatures again it's a bit weird because uh we are we've had those very consistent warm temperatures for about 3 months now 3 four months uh for Su especially in the South through May was uh was still fairly Pleasant a lot of the time so it is slowly cooling down uh so these sort of temperatures into the low 20s is here is pretty decent indeed now I do just want to compare to the Aron run which is regarded as one of the better short range models and I do like to look at this uh especially this overlay where we've got both the precipitation and we have the cape the energy associated with uh the thunderstorms now as we head overnight tonight into Sunday you can see there is moderate Cape around through Sunday across Central and Southern areas but we don't actually see much activity there are a few showers around inevitably but not too much activity like the latest UK V the Rome actually agrees might not be much going on through Sunday there is energy there but not much actually happening as we head though into Sunday evening it really picks up again initially out in the west but then further uh for Central and Eastern areas and big thunderstorms breaking hours especially through the early hours of Monday so actually the r run here is in pretty strong agreement with the ukv yes there's small chance of a few showers and storms around on Sunday main activity though Sunday night through to Monday morning so I wouldn't be surprised if tomorrow that yellow warning not much happens there is the chance but the latest ones definitely suggesting not much but then definitely into Monday morning looks like we could see further warnings uh because the storm activity does look quite extensive and not only pretty severe but quite widespread and there could be a lot of heavy rain around even if you don't get hit by a active storm with lightning and hail strong winds Etc looks like there's a lot of heavy rain around regardless which could again cause flooding even outside uh of any sort of main active thunderstorm band or cells so we'll have to wait and see what happens but definitely looks like Monday morning could be the more active period for these storms and again we'll be able to look at that in a bit more detail tomorrow afternoon but again tomorrow is a little bit of an known unfortunately definitely looks like there could be some activity but the extend and severity uh to be honest not got a clue cuz we got cont runs latest runs not showing much earli runs were showing a lot so again it is going to be one of those nowcast situations now you go over and have a look at the longer range because of course we've got a couple of weeks um got the next couple of weeks really to deal with you can see high pressure in control to the east we got this little Kink between the two high pressure systems through the next sort of 4 hours or so and that what's causing those thunderstorms as we head into next week though we do see an extension of the aort high warm dry conditions for much of the week the air last though isn't amazingly warm the uh the air is coming in from the East there is some warm air that we could tap into at time so it could get into the mid-20s but again it will be all dependent on how close the cut off low becomes to us and what sort of air mass we bring in but here GFS pretty decent eventually does break down towards the 10 of September so in around 10 days time look what happens it goes much fresher indeed potentially even some greens moving in which the upper temperatures touching 0° and you look at the temperature deviation some blues starting to push in so even though the next 7 to 10 days looks very warm potentially even an extension of summer as we head towards the middle third of the month we could be starting to look at more traditional autal conditions you compare to the GM very similar over the coming days with high pressure taking control looking warm and dry through much of next week the high pressure never really consolidates itself over the top of us and eventually towards day 10 we see Northerly winds developing the high pressure extending more towards Greenland and look at this a much colder fresh air mass pushing if we look at the temperature deviation look at that 8 to 10° below average pretty insane indeed um for the 10th of September again it's still decent way away so 7 Days of generally above average temperatures until then but yeah definitely signs of a bit of a cool down for the middle third of the month it is expected but we've only started to see it crop up on the runs today and then finally look at the latest ecmwf again high pressure taking control lat this week with East the winds generally a warm air mass but then eventually towards day 10 pretty similar to the GM not as much of a direct Northerly but we are seeing those fresh air Masset mixing in and I said it could turn much more autal for that middle period of the month and if we do finish by looking at the Ensemble see this well reflected generally average to above average temperatures very warm over next s of 24 to 36 hours dropping slightly through Monday and Tuesday with a cold front moving through but still around average and then Rising again later this weekend kind of being a good five plus degrees above average for the rest of the week uh towards of that 10th of September point where we dip back towards average or below average once again now doesn't look like absolutely wash out conditions there are definitely periods of higher precipitation over the next couple of days with some thunderstorms maybe some more thunderstorms later this week but definitely there will be some drier days we'll have to wait and see for those precipitation spikes to even themselves out a little bit I think because of the small little low pressure systems around the troughs a lot of the models uh or summer members sorry to be specific are a little bit confused the exact timings of precipitation it's not going to be raining all the time definitely going to be some dryer days um we'll have to wait and see to decipher those over the next um sort of couple of days and then finally if we compare to the ecmwf ensembles very similar same pattern with the temperatures above average average above average and then average to below average for the final couple days of the Run quite a lot of precipitation I must say from the looks of the ukb it is going to be dry for a good few days next week maybe not Monday maybe not Tuesday everywhere but definitely Wednesday Thursday look pretty dry days so again we'll have to wait and see for that there is a drop in precipitation there but it does pick up into the weekend we'll have to wait and see why that occurs my sort of instinct is that as we saw from those longer range charts we did see a cut off load to our South might be that these Ensemble members have that cut off low nudging northwards and that wouldn't be great if actually compare to Glasgow for example you can see it is quite a bit drier so that assertion from me I think is is reasonably correct cuzz I think the high pressure will be set further northwards low pressure further southwards so that could mean that Northern areas actually see drier warmer conditions than Southern areas still lots of things that could change but that could be the pattern as we head towards next weekend in sort of five six seven days time we'll have to wait and see though of course so anyway thanks for watching hope you enjoyed make sure you stay safe in all those thunderstorms and I'll see you again for another video soon