Latest as Severe Thunderstorms Take Off on Thursday! 31st July 2024

welcome everyone back to weekly weather updates and in today's video we're going to focus on the risk of some pretty severe thunderstorms over the next 24 to 48 hours especially through Thursday where it could be very Lively indeed we are going to see a line of th line of thunderstorms developing through Thursday morning primarily for the Midlands in northern England spreading through pretty quickly but could be pretty dangerous in places and then we are going to see quite a large area of high risk basically we don't know exactly where those Thunder will pop up but they'll pop up somewhere within that risk area which looks primarily across parts of central eastern and southern England we've got very high levels of cape and we are going to be seeing popup storms develop where it means you could be under torrential rain frequent lightning somewhere 10 Mi away could be seeing 25° and sunshine so it looks that sort of conditions doesn't like we're going to seeing massive lines of storms or huge multicell systems well instead we like to see is lots of these popup storms could form into lines at times they do look very slow moving especially through the late afternoon so we'll start by having look at the live radar see what's going on at the moment as we are starting to see that instability building in after very uh dry and hot last few days look at the top temperatures today for interest we'll have the weather warnings and then we'll run for the ukv and the aroma runs looking at that thunderstorm risk there is bit of discrepancy between those two runs highlighting the uncertainty we have even 12 to 24 hours away from these storms starting to pop off so do remember if you enjoy video you like And subscribe and remember to follow me on Twitter as well the link in description after you start on the live radar you can see that we've had a very dry day but we are now seeing instability moving in and some showers starting to pop off if you ever looked at the Olympics re in the last 24 hours or generally looked at the Laro you can see there's been quite a few severe thunderstorms across parts of France luckily most of these storms have evaded or evaded directly impacting Paris you can see some Hefty storms around we're not going to see these size storms but we are going to tap in to that energy and instability you can already see out to the west and the South we're seeing some Hefty showers starting to take off mostly these are uh French Imports where we have some showers developed further southwards and they're kind of dying out as they head northwards but still holding on to some instability because that General instability or that general area of storm risk is now extending over parts of England and Wales what we're likely to see this evening uh I'm recording this around 10 p.m. but what we're likely to see this evening and through the early hours of Thursday is these showers in the west to form into more of a line of thunderstorms or generally heavy rain more likely to be Heavy Rain with a few flashes of lightning and some embedded storms and just direct thunderstorms uh but yeah could cause some issues and this is likely to spread across the Midlands and Northern England through Thursday morning hopefully most of it clears by lunchtime but it could linger in a few spots we do look at the temperatures through this evening you can see it's still very muggy across parts of central England again it's been another very hot day temperatures Wily across uh right wi above the heat wave thresholds I think now officially we have had 3 days of consecutive uh heat wve conditions um so officially it is a heatwave Knack that's what we need three consecutive days above those Heatwave thresholds again they do vary across the country but for London for example it is 28° and we have eclipsed that the past 3 days so officially this is a heatwave and it's been a heat wave for many parts as well if the further northwards and westwards you spread it goes down to about 25° the lower end of the threshold is 25° for coastal areas areas forther Norths and westwards for that East and Southern corner where it does gently get hotter being closer to the continent it sort of it's a gradient up towards the highest amounts of 28° but for many areas we've reached those thresholds officially now it is a heat wave and you can see from the max temperatures today over the net weather this is verified here widely 29 to 30° today not getting up towards those 3132 we saw yesterday that wasn't expected a couple of the runs like the ukv were showing it an isolated 31 but mostly s of 2930 and that's exactly what we've seen so said another very hot day while we avoid thunderstorms tomorrow we could see it being this hot again but I do think it's going to be very hit and miss maybe the odd area getting 30° if the storms are completely evaded but it will depend on the cloud amounts uh cuz even if you don't see a storm if you see some sort of decaying storm nearby again chucking a load of high level cloud into the atmosphere then that is going to bring the temperatures down for areas that's not directly impacted by the precipitation or the lightning or hail for example holding those temperatures back from more widespread area so we'll have to wait and see but the possibility is there tomorrow and again it is there for Friday if you do look at the latest weather warnings we've got this thunderstorm warning for much of Thursday it's not been updated since we Lo last looked at it so we won't look it in too much detail but multiple rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms are forecasted on Thursday and mly to disruption so again is that main area or main line of rain through the morning for northern areas and then the r Shi uh shifts further southwards and eastwards where we could see multiple batches of of pop-up storms developing from around the lunchtime all the way to the early evening time could still last through into the late evening but I don't think there'll be too much initialization of storms there will be more storms that carry on uh here we're talking about actual storms taking off as you can see again we're looking at 25 to 40 mm an hour or so maybe 60 mm in a couple hours and you see a more in depth description of essentially what I have just uh spoken about again got an area of showy rain across Northern uh spreading Northern eastwards across Wales Midlands and Northern England I said that's through the morning and then we've got again some scattered heavy and thunderstorms develop through the afternoon for Central Southern and Eastern areas so those the main risks other areas could see storms even outside of these sort of highlighted areas I said these are the main risk areas with the warning covering most of England and parts of Wales now to go over to the latest ukv which has been very up and down over the past couple of days with the Thun storm risk and that is because it is very uncertain these are highly volum situations but it's kind of converging on that popup storm risk today you can't see through this evening we see that line of heavy showers and storms breaking out further westwards really taking off across parts of the Midlands and Northern England spreading northwards and eastwards before eventually clearing around the late morning towards lunchtime and then around lunchtime we start to see thunderstorms breaking out across Wales into Central England and then become more widespread during the afternoon transitioning Southern to Southern and Eastern areas you can see they don't look like they're going to form into massive lines or massive areas but where those core storms develop it could be very severe with some dark Reds appearing there eventually petering out you see most initialization is done by around 6 7 p.m and then the storms kind of Decay away through the evening as we head into Friday could be another very hot day in the East again could see some thunderstorms triggering there don't look quite as severe eventually we see a cold front sweeping through just with a some CL and rain and then for Saturday and Sunday it's looking much fresher but still reasonbly dry until Sunday evening we start to see Heavy Rain moving in from the West unfortunately where does look like it could get very rainy indeed but we won't focus on that that's still a good few days away and hopefully still plenty of hot weather to come between now and then if we do look at the upper air temperature you can see it is continuing to be very hot over the coming days with the upper air temperatures that's fueling those thunderstorms but still could give some very hot condition of the service but I said lots of factors will go into that hot conditions remain all the way through Friday and then into Saturday they get swept away briefly chillier another warm air mass moving in for Sunday so it could be pretty decent there Sunday into Monday but eventually that weather fromont pushing through again on Monday giving us cooler conditions we'll have to wait and see for those temperatures on Monday because from the looks of this it could be very warm but we just looked at the precipitation and there was a lot of rain and Cloud around so it could be one of those where it's very muggy but it is horrible with precipitation falling out of the sky hopefully that rain is a bit delayed or isn't it's intense we see some sunshine CU if we do we could be seeing mid TI 20s once again here now I do just want to have a look at the mix level cap this is showing the energy within the atmosphere over the coming days you see there's a bit of uh energy through at the moment but you can see insane amounts of energy across parts of northern France that is going to move in through the early hours of Thursday and then we're going to see some really high level of Cape through Central Southern England through Thursday afternoon and this is where we could see those really severe thunderstorms breaking out and you can see it is quite a large area of risk but as we looked at the precipitation charts it just pop up storms so this is why we very difficult to pinpoint where the storms will be because you see there is a large area of moderate to high Cape but only few of the areas within this will actually see some very active thunderstorms does grade away for Thursday we could see a little bit of cape in the east on Friday but nowhere near severe and then eventually into the weekends things start to die out and you see very little Cape as we head into next week I do look at the max temperatures now I just want to finish off by looking at that from the ukb ex see the temperatures is ding widely towards the 30° Mark as we get into tomorrow there is the possibility of 30 or even 302 there across central Southern England but much more widely a few degrees cooler because of the storms and Cloud but I still think there is a good chance somewhere reaches 30° just nowhere near as widespread into Friday not quite as hot the oper start to drop but still 27 to 29 still eclipsing Heatwave thresholds and then into Saturday still could be warm in the east 25 26 but nowhere near as hot and then it's a Sunday much fresher overall more towards mid to low 20s for wet Monday could be very warm in the East 26 27 where you avoid that range you see the rain where we have the exact same upper air temperatures um it's only 19° and that just shows you the power of cloud and rain against those upper air temperatures now do want to finish by looking at the Aron run which is a very good model for forecasting precipitation at the short range only goes out to 36 hours so really today the only OPP opportunity we have had to look at the thunderstorm risk it is very on and off I'm not going to lie it's not quite as intense as the ukv or as widespread with those uh storms but it is pretty intense where they do occur now we can see as we head through Thursday that line of storms appears further north it's a little bit more delayed so it develops more towards Northern and Eastern coastal areas than as further in lands already a little bit of discrepancy there between the runs and then as we head into Thursday a few thunderstorms in the far Southeast for the morning and then they really start to take off during the afternoon again very popup in nature but you can see some really dark Reds appearing there Browns indicating some exceptionally High precipitation rates where those do occur same sort of risk area just not quite as widespread as the ukv was showing we'll have to wait and see exactly how it does play out again we're kind of guessing now we know where the risk is going to be but we're guessing where exactly those storms will pop off it's going to be a waiting game we have to see what happens tomorrow you can see there is quite a high risk uh probably the highest risk we've had for a while um I think early June we had some quite high risk of storms we'll have to wait and see how these do work out it definitely looks like there will be storms in places just how severe and how widespread is still the deciding factor CU they're of course so cuz they're convective in nature they're so unpredictable so anyway thanks for watching hope you enjoyed make sure you stay safe tomorrow if you are out and about the storms can come out of nowhere and I said they could explode into action so make sure you do stay safe and I'll see you again for another video soon