Latest as Major Arctic Blast Arrives on Wednesday! 9th September 2024

welcome everyone back to weekly weather updates and in today's video we're going to have to the latest on the Arctic blast that is going to be arriving over the next few days we're seeing massively contrasting conditions at the moment as it was very warm and thundery last week with some areas on Friday reaching 28° but by the end of this week especially Wednesday through to Friday those same areas could be seeing overnight Frost it is going to get incredibly chilly for the time of year temperatures uh at the upper air level look like it could be between 5 and 8° below average as we kind of see a perfect storm of conditions to bring in a very cold Arctic air mass for the time of year we'll have a look at the latest ukv looking at the precipitation and the temperature over the next 5 days I said it's going to be cold but it's not going to be particularly dry we are going to see lots of showers and even some longer Spells Of Rain which will make those feel like temperatures even worse and then as we head into the longer range as we look at the latest GFS GM e and the ensembles there are actually tentative signs of a bit of a warmup once again temperatures could be average to above average into the final 10 days or so of September and it does look like high pressure could be making a return as well so we could be starting September on a very hot thundery note very cool cold during the middle thirdd of September and then the final third could actually be warmer once again we'll look at that in more detail in the second half of the video so do remember if you enjoy my videos like And subscribe and remember to follow me on as well the links in description now to start on the live radar you can see there is quite a bit of rain in the north at the moment and this is as a result of the change in wind direction with a North northwesty Wind now arriving now the probably cold air is still quite far behind this weather front or these collection of weather front sorry this is and a low pressure system that is starting to organize um as it slowly moves southwards and eastwards and once the cold FR associated with this low does clear that's when the very cold air does arrive but regardless we have Swept Away the very warm and humid air we had through last week and the weekend so even today it has felt a lot fresher but really more towards average for the time of year it's going to go below average over the next few days so yeah you might have noticed a bit of a chill to the a but it is going to get worse probably much worse especially if you in the north again you might want those hat and gloves or coat back out uh for the first time in many months now do put on the temperatures recording this around half eight you can see it's not been a warm day but not particularly cold either Blue's appearing and again that's pretty typical with these fresher Atlantic air masses all the warmth and heat is now getting pushed towards Eastern Europe as it slowly does retreat away uh and you can see out to our North Iceland and Greenland starting to significantly cool down now as we do start to see signs um of winter approaching and of course with our wind direction coming straight from here it does mean that even for early September to the middle part of September it can be pretty cold indeed and that's what we're seeing this week if do go over to the latest ukv now you can see uh we have got that that rain in through the rest of this evening slowly pushing eastwards and southwards and eventually into Tuesday it starts to clear Southern areas so it could be some more persistent rain in the afternoon for Tuesday bit of a score feature potentially there doesn't look too significant but it is something that is showing up on the ukv so could be a period of bit heavier rain there through Tuesday afternoon into the evening as we progress towards Wednesday we're all in that much colder air now and you can see there's even a bit of snow over the highlands of Scotland the first time we're seeing that in many many months and for all it will be a pretty chilly starts to Wednesday but it is going to be the coolest night in a long time and it's just going to be eclipsed by even colder nights through Thursday and Friday by Wednesday afternoon it's a generally pretty showery day some dry conditions around and sunshine I won't feel too bad but with that strong northwesterly wind it is going to feel pretty cold as we head into Thursday it's going to be a very chilly overnight uh conditions with temperatures widely dropping way towards the mid single digits low single digits further north Norths as we'll see in a minute and again shs around but nothing too crazy less than we did see on Wednesday as those ice bars do start to stretch out as we do start to head on a transition towards slightly milder temperatures come the weekend as we head into Friday we do see those Isa bars completely stretch out and that means we see very little shower but also see very little in the way of cloud and what that means is widely those temperatures could drop quite significantly into Friday morning and as we'll see for a minute quite a widespread Frost does develop rural areas low single digits even in towns and cities a really cold night for early September as we head into Friday afternoon we see that transition more of a Westerly flow still cold throughout the day and even into Saturday could still be chilly in the south and east into the morning as we still hold on to that cold air there but most of our areas turning milder by Saturday and both into Saturday and Sunday it will be turning milder but also cloudier and wetter from the West now do put on those uh upper air temperatures now you can see it's an average air mass at the moment nothing amazingly cold nothing particularly mild but then you see that very cold air starting to move in for Tuesday and it just gets stronger and stronger through Tuesday and the proper transition comes into Wednesday where we're all in that much colder air it persists through all of Wednesday most of Thursday as well and perhaps could get even more severe through Thursday afternoon that sort of air mass - 4- 5 that is going to be very cold for those Northern areas and you can see it does slowly get shifted away into Friday but still another very cold morning on Friday for milder conditions eventually arrive for the weekend now if do have a look at those 2 met temperatures you can see this afternoon temperatures 16 to 18° the mildest it's going to be for the rest of the week as we head into Tuesday much colder in the north temperatures hardly into the double digits for parts of Northern Scotland further southwards maybe only just about double digits or low teens maybe still 17 or 18 in a far Southeast but but that area of yellow is shrinking dramatically as we head into Wednesday look at those overnight temperatures widely in the mid to high single digits and for Scotland starting to see some blues indicating that those temperatures could be dropping down towards freezing mostly though low single digits by Wednesday morning as we head into the afternoon a cold day 14 15 at best in the South most areas just about into the double digits or single digits over the higher ground and then as we head into Thursday those overnight temperatures are even lower and you can see as we head into that morning period around the 3:00 a.m. point to 6 a.m. point the temperatures will be at their coldest and you can see again Blues appearing for much of Scotland temperatures around the low single digits or towards freezing and AAS further southwards 6 or 7° for another couple of degrees colder than Wednesday morning and you see by the afternoon again struggling in the double digits 134 best many areas 10 to 12 or even lower and then finally for the last kind of day of this cult to spell into Friday look at those overnight temperatures by 6:00 a.m. widely through the Republic of Island temperatures there dropping towards freezing lots of Blues the same for Northern England some of the higher ground of Wales and for quite a large portion of Scotland temperatures down towards freezing and even a minus one appearing there over the highlands of Scotland that is very cold indeed for the early to middle part of September luckily though as we head through Friday we'll be slowly getting warmer but still only 1415 through Friday into Saturday morning still five or six maybe in the far Southeast but for all come Saturday into Sunday lot milder with yellows appearing for many areas as that wind direction does shift and we tend back towards more early aut terminal conditions that we have come to expect so a real cold snap coming fortunately it is only a snap it's only lasting 3 days maybe 4 days further northwards uh again we'll have to see the exact severity of it that definitely has increased quite a bit since yesterday's video and the ones before that as we do start to pinpoint those exact overnight temperatures which do look really quite cold indeed I was pretty skeptical a few days ago whether we'd actually see any Frost and it just be a a cold feel- like temperature but now it looks like we could see some pretty hefty Frost further northwards not only just for one night but for perhaps two or three over some of the higher ground so yeah it could be really quite chilly indeed so make sure you do protect any plants especially those sensitive ones again if you've got any plans Outdoors it is getting very cold and of course out in the day make sure you got hat and gloves and coat if you don't like these colder conditions I think the biggest thing is it's going to be a real shock to the system from high 20s last week in some areas towards High single digits going to be a real shock to the system if do head over to the longer range though there is some sensitive signs that things could be looking better into the final half of September you can see that very strong norly wind Kind of Perfect Storm with a strong low pressure system to our East high pressure to our West allowing this very strong norly wind again we'd probably be hyping and raving about this if this were in midwinter as this would probably bring a very cold and snowy spell with this pattern again it's not all too long uh lasting but would be pretty severe indeed coming directly from the Arctic eventually though it does topple by the weekend and we go into a Wesley flow but look high pressure makes more of an appearance into the second half of September and it dominates a lot more yes low pressure still out to our South and our West and that could allow another cut off flow to develop more thunderstorms maybe more more heavy rain but the general theme is for more higher pressure and the air masses and wind direction generally coming in from the south which would mean that it actually wouldn't be too bad temperatures back into the High Teens or even low 20s into the second half of September not too bad as I said um much much better than what we have over the next few days if we do compare to leus GM again that very strong Northerly wind coming in at the moment it does flatten and then high pressure makes much bigger appearance towards day 10 actually a very warm and dry pattern to uh to end this run temperatures by day would be very warm indeed here High Teens touching 20° by midday so wouldn't be surprised here 22 or 23 come 2 or 300 p.m. very very pleasant indeed now do you compare to the latest ecmwf broadly very similar exactly the same to the GM and the GFS Wesley flow Comack this week with some more low pressure so still some unsettled conditions at times but generally towards day 10 high pressure building in and again that wind direction coming more from a southernly or easterly Direction and upper aad temperatures starting to climb quite a bit in that southern and western Corner again we have to wait and see but could be going warmer once again into the final 10 days of September now do finish by looking at the ensembles there are broadly what we expect much colder over the next few days around that 5 to 8° below average for some maybe even 10° below average lasting only 3 or 4 days looking pretty dry as well so yes chilly uh but fortunately a little bit dry and then we see the temperatures returning back towards average maybe more above average into the final 10 days of September no massive positive signal at this stage but tentative signs and generally a drier outlooks even if those temperatures aren't amazing at least it's looking reasonably dry and if we finally compare to the latest ecmwf ensembles pretty much exactly the same around that 5 to 8° maybe even 10° below average for much of the rest of this week and then we do see a rise in temperatures next week back towards average or above average and again with fairly minimal precipitation so yeah looks pretty abysmal the next few days for temperatures we are heading towards of late Autumn early winterlik temperatures frosts and very cold Feld like temperatures like it's I said about 5 or 6° outside that's how it's going to feel in some areas with that strong Northerly wind um again Frost around so do be careful with that there's a risk of ice as well fortunately not lasting all too long and we are going to see those temperatures Rising once again into the weekend and back to what we really expect for this time of year so yeah we're going from one extreme to the other again hope it's not too impactful and hopefully it isn't as cold as the runs are making out to be again we'll have to wait and see and of course I have another update out tomorrow so thanks for watching hope you enjoyed subscribe if you're new and I'll see you again for another video soon