Stock Market Analysis August 30, 2024

NVDA Key ⚓️ Inv HnS? hey everybody Brian Shannon from alphat trends. net today is Friday the 30th of August I hope you had a good week and we've got a nice three-day weekend ahead of us uh the markets were a little bit lower for the most part this week today zor Al in the spy uh managed to get us back up on the week so uh Clos with a small gain there for the Spy the uh bonds pulled back a little bit and Bitcoin and ethereum were the weaker groups uh let's take a look at these charts and make some sense of it I'll start out with what everyone wants to talk about this week which is NVIDIA Nvidia prior to the earnings I said that you know this looked like an important level down in this uh Zone where we saw the 50-day the 20-day moving average the anchor from the prior low and uh I believe what was it the anchor off of the all-time high as well right in this zone so I was thinking that it had the potential to pull back into here and it was also a 38 uh 38.2 2% retracement of this low to this High we did get a bounce there it didn't follow through and as you know from my work I look at the direction of the 5-day moving average when the 5-day moving average is declining I might buy something for a day trade for a bounce but I'm not looking for it to turn around let's take a look at the day trade that I took in here today on Nvidia which is straight out of my book which is the maximum trading gains with anchored vwap don't chase the G Gap wait for V WAP we don't wait uh chase that Gap higher we wait for it to get back above the volume weighted average price and then ride it up I was looking for it to get up towards the two-day volume weighted average price and then that was pretty much it uh that morning uh move so now where does this leave us well you know I saw some people saying well it's just making lower highs and maybe it's going to make a lower low I look at this and I see the potential for a neckline and an inverted Head and Shoulders pattern that might look something like this and this being B basically the bottom end of that range doesn't mean it might not continue a little bit F uh lower here we might see a little bit of a ShakeOut rebuilding in here for a week or two and then push back higher and then break that inverted Head and Shoulders pattern if that were the case and this is the neckline and let's say it broke at 127 what we do is we take the height of the pattern which is the the uh the top of the head which is 100 up to straight up to the neckline above that's 32 points so we' add 32 points to 127 so 32 plus 127 will give us about what 169 did I do that right 159 either way it's uh significantly higher and there's nothing wrong with this stock waiting a little bit and digesting this massive rally that it's had uh so you know it's not a bad thing we saw two bounces this year from the year-to-date anchored vwap and now we've getting a bounce it seems from the anchor from that last selloff let's take a look at the broader Market the S&P 500 most of the week was really just kind of range SPY 5 DMA nuances bound we tried to break that range here late in the day and uh closed right at the top end of that range this Market is still clearly bullish and the level that we were looking at at the beginning of the week Remains the important level for next week which is 5542 as I said last week if we're above 5542 then we remain innocent until proven guilty we did pull back below the 5-day moving average a little bit but we were still within the range so you can't look at that 5-day moving average by itself and just say hey we're below it I've got to be bearish you don't get bearish over here if we're testing prior support and an important anchor instead if we were to get bearish on this if I was to get bearish on it I would look for it to do something like this and then get stuck underneath that anchor and stuck below this band of support that didn't happen so that doesn't make sense next week maybe it does maybe it pulls right back down does this bounces a little bit and then starts to continue lower it's always a possibility but the primary Trend remains higher we're going to see that 20-day moving average coming up through the 50-day moving average next week that's not a bad thing the NASDAQ is consolidating nicely in here I QQQ nice consolidation, byers game to lose think we we saw a really nice move higher and let's just put an uh Fibonacci on that low and say from this low to that high we have even pulled back 38.2% retracement this is a strong Market it pulled back right to where it was supposed to the Anchor off of the alltime high and the anchor from this handoff here we were looking at this thinking hey we've got really caution yes below the declining 5day moving average I look at as guilty till proven innocent but if you haven't read the books I don't know I you can't just pick this up by looking at uh uh you know a couple videos on a Friday afternoon that's not how it works this is a you know there's a lot more to it um so I'm going to tell you buy my books for crying out loud if you really want to learn this stuff anyways what we have now this is what I was hoping we would see I've told subscribers to alpat trends that I'd like to see it rally up through the 5day moving average fail make a higher low and then maybe next week we can break back Above This level do something like this and we're off to the upside again in the in the NASDAQ if we were looking at this as it looks like a bullish flag in here then that would imply a really big continued upside and new all-time highs if we just call this 435 to 4 let's 485 that's 50 points add 50 points to 470 that would give you 520 is a potential upside I don't do price targets it's just the level of interest that the might Market might have the potential to go up to but this is looking really bullish it's the buyer's game to lose if it gets back below 4 66 let's just call it then you've got to think a little bit differently that maybe the sellers are going to be able to wrestle control but it's not there Russell 2000 I've been calling it a mess IWM choppy constructive I continue to call it a mess but it's behaving well uh it's got the higher low here today so if we can break above here then I think you're going to see a continuation of this move higher so if you're looking at buying the Russell 2000 maybe above here with a stop under here or this low would be the way to do it I'm personally not interested in the Russell 2000 Index it's too choppy for me but there's a lot of stocks in that group that you know this 2,000 stocks go go do a little bit of work into what's involved there semiconductors uh these guys as we know got stuck so far at the SMH potential turn back up next week 61.8% retracement of this High to this low and the 50-day moving average is it was it resistance because it's the 50 or because it was a 61.8 it doesn't matter we don't need to know the fact is we know there were sellers there it pulled back from that level and now the sellers on the shorter term time frame seem to be defending the anchor off of this peak they also seem to be defending the declining 5-day moving average what we saw today is a possible bullish scenario which is we saw a higher low so if we can you know very similar to the NASDAQ if we can get back Above This level then perhaps we're Back Off to the Races and we see it smash through this 50-day moving average the the the one issue with the 50-day moving average for me is the 50-day moving average is declining and next week we get rid of this data so if it can rally up into here though that will get the 50-day moving average flattening out let's just let the market tell us what to do in here as I mentioned we've got the pattern here of this potentially being the first higher low since this pullback began if you just keep it simple and focus on higher highs and higher lows we don't want to buy the higher high here we want to wait and have a higher low confirmed and then buy the higher high with a stop that would go either underneath this level or this level right here you decide which ones makes the most sense for you in your time frame biotechs continue to build energy they're doing exactly what XBI building energy for upside breakout we want them to do not exactly because I was hoping today we would pull back and make a higher low somewhere in here instead we pulled back right down to the bottom end of this range and the anchor off of this uh point right here where it broke this range uh so we've got this as a clear level let's just call it 9975 if we break below there and hold below there for more than an hour or so then it seems likely we'll pull back a little bit deeper down towards the anchor from the August 5th low and the 20-day moving average I would prefer we kind of rally up uh and this is just what I prefer it's not a prediction make a higher low and then and go that way if you buy right here your stop could be under that level if you buy right here your stop has to go way under here you can buy twice as much and risk the same amount buying here if your stop is there versus right here so how it gets to the trigger is always much more important than just breaking a trigger point Financial stocks these guys just won't quit higher highs and higher lows if you're long XLF more ATH raise your stop up again this is the new most recent relevant higher low with a rising 5day move moving average anyone who has tried to uh pick the top in here has lost money as we're at all-time highs here's our monthly chart uh this Market has never ever been higher than this that is as bullish as you can get if you're bearish on these financials well you know you you don't need to tell me to tell you what your uh Equity balance looks like energy names they're still a mess but they're getting a little bit more constructive I'm not XLE $GLD $TLT going to trade these things because just generally speaking they you know like all commodity stocks you kind of have to buy them when they look like and sell them when they look like they're ready to break out so I wouldn't suggest you buy it above here I think you know you see it pull back and then buy it but I don't that's not my personality to buy the dip as you know I always say don't buy the dip buy strength after the dip so Financial I mean energy names maybe they're going to run into this trend line rebuild a little bit let that 20-day moving average come up through the 50-day moving average and then do something we we can you know we'll see what happens in there but you know I'm just not excited everyone wants me to take a look at gold there's nothing to talk about here it's in an uptrend it's innocent until proven guilty it's you know and it it trades like a commodity it looks bullish over here it does this traps people and then continues to move higher I don't like to trade gold uh so why would I talk about it bonds they're still constructive but you know they're just they're another commodity you can say well how are they commodity they're the cost of money that is a commodity to me it's it's a commodity the price of money is anyways they're still bullish overall just had a bad day bad couple days and right now in the intermediate term they have a very clear pattern lower highs and lower lows below a declining 5-day moving average let's talk about Bitcoin for a moment actually let's look at this chart this is the one with uh the 5-day moving average in those colors and again it's you know someone asked me on uh uh Twitter this week when I posted this chart saying how well do these signals work and I said it's not a signal it doesn't mean just because it turns red you want to uh get short the the S&P 500 for instance right here because it hadn't broken that support it's a piece of the puzzle it just tells you hey let's get a little bit more cautious here Bitcoin is still kind of flirting with the anchor off of Bitcoin not interesting here that August 5th low as well I just kind of view this as I gave it a shot to the long side this week basically scratched it lost a very small amount it was a small start uh uh piece to begin with but I just don't see it doing anything significant in here uh thanks for staying to listen to the end of the video please give it a like subscribe to the channel share with your friends have a long good long weekend thank you