How to find stocks trading under the 50 day SMA - FREE - why is everyone selling $TSLA?

da stop trading podcast in my ears guiding me through my hopes and fears tun in Daily don't miss a single show sign up for the newsletter let us BR taking R making moving success together we conquer no room for any now good morning it is Friday September 6th uh first off to just to start there was a post in the private Facebook group about Seeking Alpha and offer blah blah blah Quan I hope you don't hate me I hope you don't hate me uh I took it down um your boy needs groceries I mean I I don't think it was anything that was in particular great uh I think it's a good one but again I took it down I hope you don't hate me Quan it was just something that I kind of made the decision at like 3 in the morning I saw it and I was like ooh let me let me just make that decision and I did think about it for about a minute maybe two so I was sitting there thinking about it but where are we on Friday well the jobs numbers came in um jobs numbers came in non far pral growth shifts up in August but falls short of expectation I think the biggest thing was the revisions to June and July August was was bad but it wasn't as bad as I I think some people expected the unemployment rate down to 4.2 from 4.3 so that's good they were expecting it to go back down to 4.1 again bad news is bad news but it wasn't as bad as as expected um so what happened with this the expectations in September later for the FED to cut went from almost assuredly a 50p point base cut to a 25 Point base cut uh but it also shift to a a 100% that we're going to go down by 1% by the end of the year so whatever happens in September then you got to live with it for the rest of September then you got to live with it for October and then the decision right before the election is again are they going to cut well if they go 25 basic points in in September you can almost assuredly expect a cut in November but nobody wants to make it political so they may go bigger in September there's all these kinds of debates I don't think it matters uh I don't think that the the determination will matter for the markets if it's a 50 point some people will say hey we're we're we're panicking and it's a bad job market a and the Market's going to go down if it's a 25 point B then some people will freak out and say inflation isn't under control uh the job markets is eroding what are you doing you didn't go fast enough they're in a bad position and if they wait till November to do it then they're going to be charged with hayte you only did this for political purposes even though pal is a trump appointee even though pal and I will repeat it pal is a trump appointy he took yelling out put Powell in so I don't think they're political I think J PO is far from a political figure uh I think he's trying to do what's best for the economy and whatever he does he's very much in in the position of a politician 50% of the people are going to hate him uh what the market does I think it you don't fight the fed and what the market is telling you is hey there's a a 25 or a 50% uh cut coming and and we know that so so you hold on to your Market you know the market is telling you it's weak the market right now is telling you that that it doesn't like where we're at from a from a short standpoint but when you look at a long-term standpoint does this look like a a a tremendous crash no it feels like a crash for some reason it feels uncomfortable and I will be the first to admit that one I'm 90% invested I pulled 5% out at that August situation I never got it back in you enjoyed a nice 10% up but I didn't put it back in I will put it back in when I feel a little bit more comfortable it is never comfortable never comfortable to put more money into the market I always feel that uncomfortable situation there are very few times where I buy in and I'm like oh my God outstanding purchase you know that that was the best thing ever very rarely do I ever have that uh 2020 I felt like that uh 2021 I felt like that 2022 when I bought in the beginning of the year didn't feel that way after you know a couple of months um you know you know sge purchase didn't feel that way um not deciding not to sell smci doesn't feel like a great buy at a th000 bucks so ve very you know right now very few times do you have a situation where you're you're 100% comfortable that uncomfortable knit feeling comes um you know from from under getting burned it's the confidence level and if you trade and you get wins that confidence muscle builds up so you know you want to build a portfolio there a couple of options my point yesterday was the core portfolio here in Savvy Trader okay yes it's a $1 million portfolio but you know what it's a 100 shares of everything don't look at the value of the portfolio if it's a 100 shares of everything and say you only have $10,000 and you want to buy it break it up you can buy fractional shares just these are 35 names that I like you don't have even have to buy all of them say you don't like Boeing say you're like Joe and and you work for Boeing and you know too many Insider secrets about the crap that's going on there you don't want to buy it don't buy it don't buy it buy the other 34 names you know say you don't like Tesla you don't like Elon Musk which we'll go over uh later here don't buy it just don't buy it you know it's down 15% since I bought it it it doesn't mean that it's a horrible stock it's a tradable stock and and I own the car there was a great segment yesterday on CNBC that I was listening to while I was out walking and the segment was Kelly Evans and Dominic Chu basically saying okay we're going to set up an NF NFL team of stocks and they picked their quarterback they picked their lineman they picked their tight end they picked their running backs they picked their wide receivers and it was an offensive game and so you know and and I'm trying to get a list of that for you but it was just a masterful play on how to set up a portfolio ke Kelly said uh you know what I'm in my Honda Odyssey driving around I'm going to buy Honda she said we we spend so much time at at Kroger uh we get our groceries delivered I'm gonna get Kroger Dominic Chu who's a big golfer he said I'm gonna buy Top Golf and Callaway uh and tailor Maiden title and they found companies that they use and they put those on their team it's kind of simple these are a services that I've used I've researched the companies and and and and I just picked them and this was June of 2022 when I bought um and I think that was at all-time highs I think many of these were at all-time highs the point I was making I is that you can pick a portfolio um just you know you don't even have to manage it just pick stocks that are good good uh quality stocks with good products with good profits and good management and in the long term you should be fine and and that's the that's the key is if you don't know and remember remember vo and QQQ and xly and xlk are in this portfolio it's not just single stocks many of these stocks are outperforming those those indexes but the basis of your portfolio should be in indexes unless you're proven over a period of time that you have an ability to pick stocks and win until that time is proven I would urge you get into ETFs because it it broadens out your exposure those highs aren't those huge 10 15 20% gays in the day because your stock just reported record earnings but like broadcom yesterday which uh reported great earnings the guidance was fantastic it was just not what the street expected and it's down 10% if that was the core of your portfolio if that was 20 or 30% of your portfolio then that doesn't make sense it just doesn't so there's a lot of ways to set up a portfolio you might hear people say hey I'm overweight technology in my uh in my uh portfolio this is what they mean when you go over here and you look vo okay technology 32% of this portfolio this is the S&P 500 Communications is 8% consumer cyclical 10% healthare 11% financials 12% this is the S&P 500 okay it's 500 107 names if you if you hear them say they're overweight technology they're over 32% if they are matching the the vo and they say they're overweight so they may pull back on Apple stock they may pull back on Microsoft because it's grown too much you know Stephanie Link is famous for this she tries to match the S&P uh but there are certain stocks that go over weight because they've gained so much so she tries to she takes times when it's starting to pull back to trim those stocks it's just a you know you want to figure out how to manage your portfolio you want to figure that out um you know one of the other ways is alpha piics alpha picks year-to date TW you know people B and complain that hey super micr the main uh reason why Alpha pick is up well look at the year-to date and look at how far uh you know smci is down year to date we'll go back and look at that but look at Alpha picks up 24% year-to date the S&P is is up 15 okay my my daily stock pick core portfolio year to date it's up 28% there's plenty of ways for you to pick stocks and we can go over here and we can look at smci and let's see what smci is year-to date year to date this one's up 45% so yeah it hurts that that you're down from the thousands but you know what if you were like Alpha pix and you in this in December and remember they trim throughout the year smci was trimmed a couple of times throughout the I I think late last year um early this year somewhere around there several times I know they've sent uh messages hey we're trimming so you have to figure out okay how do I want to manage my portfolio how do you I do that um you know I woke up to the vix overnight this is a screenshot from uh 5:50 a.m. okay when I when I opened up Seeking Alpha the vix was up 12% up to 22 let's go and take a look at the vix because I I had said hey the vix wants to get back over 20 it has and the markets come down right now it's at 1924 so it wants to be at 20 I think the average it was in a previous newsletter I think the average was like 21 over the last 10 20 years somewhere around there but you can ask AI what the last the average was you know another way to try and balance your portfolio or find entries is to use and again this is any anybody can do this this is 100% free go to the screener on uh on finis and just you know pick an index say you want say you want heavy Tech so you want the the NASDAQ 100 what does this pull up 101 names okay say you want to find ones that are trading under their uh 50-day SMA and if you don't know what a 50-day SMA is go and Google it okay it's a standard moving average that many uh Traders and many investment firms use so you want to do it that and then just sort it by market cap and find a large market cap co uh stock that's trading under its 50-day because most of the time these stocks will get back above their 50-day does it mean that they're going to U make you money no the 50-day is a moving average that's the point but if it's well below its 50-day you can make sure that it's going to get back up or over its 50 day now let's take you know some of these the large cap stocks Microsoft Nvidia Google Amazon uh broadcom asml AMD Qualcomm there are plenty of them okay the na of the NASDAQ 100 there are 53 names that are trading under the 50 day that may not make you feel comfortable if you're in these stocks okay we can go and we can look at that what that means is pull up a daily chart okay look at the times when you had the opportunity to buy Microsoft under its 50-day it never felt comfortable never but every time you had the chance to buy it under its 50-day over time it went back up above the 50-day now here on the daily the 50-day is moving you have a famous thing called the death cross which is where the 50-day crosses under the 200 day and that looks like it might be coming up if this 50-day continues to move down you know we can go and look we can look at Amazon Amazon is one trading under its 50-day on The Daily um you know would I suggest buying these you have to have a plan to buy them it's under its 50-day it's 50-day is at 181 it's trading at 177 you know under its 200 day that red Line's the 200 day the blue line up here is the 50 day but my point is you can use finis to try and find these stocks you know say you want to try you know the Dow it's 30 freaking stocks you want to find ones that are under its a 50-day 12 of them Microsoft Amazon Merc Chevron Salesforce amen caterpillar Disney honey well Boeing Intel Dow again there are points you can find these stocks that's my point is that you don't have to pay for tools if you want to pay for tools you can pay for tools you can go out there you can get Trend spider you know that's the top thing on the on link tree you can get Trend spider it's 50 bucks a month if you're trading enough money I would argue that Trend spider actually is a good tool it simplifies thing as you start to make more money you realize time matters and so the ability to make things easy as you move along that's what trend spider does it just makes it easy the 4H hour algorithm I can take a look at that chart see I'm if I'm in or out see if I back test this stock if it beats Buy and Hold if it does then maybe I want to look at the entries on that 4H hour algorithm you get the 4our algorithm from me when you sign up for Trend spider through me you know it say you uh go on finis and you find the ones that are under uh 50-day and you want to look at the valuation that's where Seeking Alpha premium comes in and that's the second link on link tree you get $25 off and a free 7-Day trial so say you found Microsoft and and you say well I want to go look at Microsoft you go on Microsoft and you go over here and you say o Wall Street says it's a strong buy but the Quant says it's a hold let me look at the five Factor grades in the Quant the valuation is is a d you don't really need to know what you're doing but understand that Microsoft's PE is 34 the sector's trading at 22 it doesn't seem like it's the best opportunity there the profitability though you look at it their gross margins are 69% the sector's trading at 49% a and then you go and you say well maybe I want to find another name well cyber Arc software names veronis ones that I've never heard of Sentinel one which is cyber security that's trading above this one a as far as the Quant goes the Quant gives it gradings you know Sentinel one this is one that's beaten down when you look at this one the valuation makes sense when you go to Wall Street 31 analysts cover this and they have a price Target that's 24% above so that's how you use finis you can use free tools all I'm saying is the tools that I provide save you time say you don't even want to look up this stuff Alpha piics the portfolio we just went over the portfolio performance so if you just want two stocks that are given to you each month we just went over that portfolio performance we just went over the daily stock pick core portfolio performance so I give you free options I give you paid options this isn't something where I'm trying to force something on you I just realized when I started paying for tools I got my time back and that's what the tools give me you can use free tools all day there's nothing out there I use free tools to mass my fortune doesn't mean that that you have to pay for tools so don't please don't get fomo just understand that these are tools that I like and I put them out there I'm not Shilling for anybody uh let's see there's the vix again uh we're going to close the core portfolio uh one of the things that Buffett I I don't know if Buffett knew anything he's hold he's still the largest he sold a ton7 billion worth of Bank of America shares okay Burk Shear remains Bank of America's top shareholder I contend Bank of America is still a core portfolio uh stock it is below $40 I don't think that's a bad buy we just talked about that death Cross of the 50-day that Blue Line crossing under it looks like you may actually go for a golden cross which is the 50-day crossing up you know we're trading above the 50-day and above the 200 day do you want to buy there the macd seems a little bit High it seems like we might be heading into weakness it's a Friday patience this Market requires patience and so while while I say hey I I'm 90% invested I've lost a tremendous amount of money since the middle of July more money than probably most people have in their savings and and and I still sleep at night the reason is time in the market beats timing the market and there's tax reasons there's reasons to stay in this but time in the market beats timing the market and and the two things for the month of August and the month of September because we're in a week seasonal period And I want you to buy in September but I want you to make sure that you're adding at smart times I don't want you to just add nilly Willy that's fine if you do it if you add on every Friday because you have a paycheck that's a strategy and that's a winning strategy over time but if you're just adding every now and then I don't want you to be Bob Bob added every now and then at the peak time and while he did find overtime because he didn't take money out I think there's a better way of doing it and it's just finding that time to get in it's never going to feel comfortable so that's the point there now per Becky quick on CNBC the semiconductor SMH still can't get above its 50-day moving average a level to watch will will be the 200 day at 216 it bounced below that uh moving average during the August 5th Market selloff let's look at SMH because what does m SMH hold it holds Nvidia it holds Qualcomm it holds uh AMD it holds all of the semiconductors it holds Micron which is one of the the social requests today so let's look at the the SMH here on the 4our it got you out with an 8% gain maybe this is one that you want to trade you know there's s soxl which is a triple levered uh semiconductor ETF but that would this one 8% gain now how does the the algorithm perform it's back tested over two years 24.6 months you make 120% what do you make if you just bought and held this one 102% my point there's better ways of trying to make money okay there are times to get in there are times to get out but do not take 100% of your money out of the market because time in the market beats uh beats beats uh timing the market that's it but the SMH when when it's under the 50-day look at the last time you had the chance to buy it under the 50-day here at 210 you're at 222 right now you had the opportunity to get up to 270 so under the 200 day if this is a stepping stair and we're going up there you know algorithm doesn't have you in looks weak would I be buying at 222 if I wanted to get into these names and and I didn't have a position or I had just gotten out with this 8% I would probably wait for confirmation but it doesn't mean you should it means you should buy when you feel comfortable you're on the bottom end of this Binger band maybe have more uh downside it's a Friday I would urge patience but if you just got out at this 244 and you want to get back in at 222 you just made yourself 20 bucks per share you literally it doesn't matter if it goes down to 200 you can add more if it goes back to 24 you just literally made yourself $20 per share so when to get back in that's my point it's never comfortable to get back in that's why you trim on the way up you take a look at a weekly chart and you say oh my God this thing is you know exploding up do I want to get in well you know I should have probably gotten in when I touched this this 200 day I should have probably gotten in when I touched the 50 day you know you August 5th here you touched the 50 day at $200 you're at 220 now 222 it's a month away so again I I I just think you know there are good ways of doing this Becky quick has a great tweet right there now I did this chart because I I I you know constantly uh I looked at this uh this tweet from this guy Michael arude the chart amazes me each time I see this okay this is back to 2004 this is Google versus Domino's Pizza the orange line right there is dpz that's up 2,817 per. okay the S&P is up 43% Google's up 466 that's fantastic all of this it just amazes me if you bought a $10 pizza back in 2004 could it you know and you say you bought a $100,000 worth of pizza Domino's Pizzas back in 2004 this goes back to setting up those football teams if you bought $1,000 worth of Pizza in uh 20 4 why didn't you buy Domino's Pizza why not you sure there were other pizza chains but if you love dominoes and you bought dominoes me you should have bought it you know if you signed up for a Gmail account in in Google and you love Gmail maybe meant that you should have bought that the chart is Fun the chart is fun now uh this is a 21 day EMA uh tomorrow's jobs numbers look Suspect with ADP numbers coming out today I tweeted this well before the jobs numbers this morning again the jobs numbers were kind of a h eh it wasn't anything great uh add to the fact that no one knows if the FED will do a quarter or a half Point uh what the reason add seasonal weakness and you've got caution nothing dramatic though in my opinion that's the the green line right there is the 21 Day okay that is a key figure too that is a remember 21 days uh means that you're just over uh 5 days in the trading week week you're just over one month that's why 21 is such a a key figure for a lot of Traders a lot of investors is because 21 takes you out just more than one month well if you're just out more than one month you're trading under your uh moving average uh on spy just caution it's Friday just caution I mean that that's all it means now this guy posted let Lulu CEO Calvin McDonald just bought a million dollar worth of shares in the open market uh just and you know it it looks huge if you go over here to finis and we look up Lulu okay I'm going to show you how huge it looks um from an Insider stare and if you got an alert and said oh my God the CEO just bought a million dollars 4,000 shares okay here's the thing I Googled what's his net worth it's 35 million bucks a million dollars is like you having $35,000 in the bank and spending $11,000 uh you know again it's interesting not lifechanging but it's interesting um you know the other thing that you notice down here when you go down here to the red portion in December 18th 2023 uh this guy sold uh 25,000 shares at $497 he just bought back in a thousand 4,000 of those shares so not even half of those shares he bought back in at less than half the price of what or just about half the price of what he bought it's not nothing but but it isn't like mindblowing news it's not it's just something that that you know hey he might know something but in my mind I don't think that that's mindblowing news now let's take a look at Lulu Lemon because it is trading under $300 it's well under its 200 day you can see that 200 day just two earnings quarters the algorithm has you out the 50-day it's just above it but that that's on a 4 hour if you take a look at a daily it's trading under its 50-day so it's going to use that 50-day as resistance these moving averages typically are resistance levels that's why when I talk about the nday the green line right there I use that as confirmation if you don't know what confirmation is go over to my uh daily STP pick newsletter daily stpi dos substack docomo over it and I go over everything okay this first one right here I give you a free 7-Day trial there's no reason you can't read what 15 16 articles in 7 days but I show you exactly what it is now Lululemon do you want to buy in that 5050 days is moving negative you're trading near the top of the Binger bands which are cinching up but you don't have a ton of like oh my god I've got to get back to these highs it just doesn't make sense to me you know Lululemon is still overpriced go over here to Seeking Alpha and we'll look up Lulu and we see the valuations a d why their PE is just a little bit stretched even their Peg value you know going forward it's 1.72 and clothing what are they going to do come out with a new set of shorts I you know are people not aware that you can get Lulu knockoffs on Amazon for about uh 20% of what you would pay Lulu yes Lulu is great for the people that have it uh I went off on Spaces the other day about how the rich uh are have plenty of money to spend so if you got plenty of money to spend on Lulu kudos to you I don't know too many people that spend money on Lulu these days but again you know $261 a share when you go over to Wall Street there are 36 analysts that cover this their average price is 315 if you go back here to finis and we can look what's the most recent one well it's August 28th 324 still higher than where it is today but when you go to finis and you look down look they're chasing it down just like they chase it when it goes up they chase it on the way down so you take that with a the grain of salt now we can talk about the biggest blow up of the Year Celsius uh Brian stoel does a master class on just breaking it down as to what happened Pepsi had their inventories too high blah blah blah blah blah blah you know again if you like this drink I would argue you should probably buy into this one I I still think that it's a little bit crazy I didn't like their CEO we talk about this all the time how uh managers you know management isn't important part the manager came on CNBC and the dude awkwardly stood there with a Celsius can in his hand never took one drink never took one freaking drink okay I'm I don't doubt that he drinks the product but he never took one drink now why is it a strong cell in in in the Quant here um let's take a look let me go back and see um you can learn why it is Celsius has characteristics which have historically ass ass with poor stock performance is overpriced and has decelerated momentum when compared to other consumer staple stocks it's 16 out of 16 you want a consumer staple stock that does well look at the other 16 look at kurg Dr Pepper look at Pepsi Pepsi's on its rebound Coke is in an all-time high monster beverage has been doing great any of these would be better than Celsius so again you have to understand if you drink Celsius and you believe in this stock go and do some research and buy into it it might be the next great apple and speaking of Apple the event Han the main contract uh manufacturer for iPhones published August monthly revenues of 33% year-over-year the highest of the Year versus seven minus 7% for uh year 2023 while historically Apple product launches or sell the news events this AI focused event on 99 has a chance to Buck the trend so where are we on Apple stock well the market opened up we're up up. 23 the algorithm has you out at what you know a nice 1.6% gain the algorithm makes you 28% versus Buy and Hold makes you 37% what does that tell me not a whole hell of a lot you got to love the stock I've got an iPad Pro here I've got an iPhone I've got a a Apple watch I've got Mac uh apple apple pods the ear pods I've got a MacBook Pro and I thought about getting the uh the the surface display I didn't maybe that's that that's my bad but again I have all of these Apple products my entire house has Apple TVs on every TV in the house I like it I use this to try and find entries why where do I find entries I try and find them when they have confirmation after a buy when the macd is low enough when the actual valuation of Apple makes sense and right now I don't think it makes that much sense when you go and you look at the financials of this one it's trading at 33p forward that means you're trading 33 times future forecasted earnings the growth better be amazing now what Apple has for it is that they haven't had tremendous growth but this is a behemoth of a company and they need an enormous iPhone cycle upgrade cycle in order to take advantage of that so am I getting rid of my Apple no they're buying enough stock back um they're they're retiring enough stock I think the Management's good management I think Tim Cook wants another couple of years in here I don't think that you get a new manager in the next year or so um I think he's done a really what go great job since Steve Jobs passed away and handed the torch over again I think he's a great CEO and that's what you invest in with apple is you invest in that that kind guidance as far you know I'm not giving up my Apple iPhone the only reason Buffett sold this thing is because it's done so well he didn't sell at the highs but again you know when you look at the Wall Street and Wall Street says hey it's got a $237 price Target which is 5% Above This they're reaching look they chased it up they chased it up so you know again you have to make these determinations and we're just going over this because it's a Friday now let's take a look at Tesla because I saw a bunch and I mean a bunch so one of the things on Tesla I post a lot about uh um dollar sign TSLA which is how you uh kind of quote stock quotes in there and TSLA so a lot of people a lot of longtime insiders uh were posting about how they're selling Tesla because it's up like 11 12 133% for no apparent reason other than Elon promis um and there's quite a few IND and this particular person Fred Lambert he is the editor of electric.co which is a newsletter about EVs and he hasn't been a super uh Elon fan but he originally invested in 200 um uh I I started reading this in 2016 he originally invested in 2010 so what I want to do is take a look he got out and he posted the reasons why he got out um now I I've been perfectly clear on this podcast that I I love my Tesla car uh I love uh the Tesla technology I love everything about Tesla what I don't like about Tesla is the valuation that's it and it scares the hell out of me and I've been wrong on this stock many many times it's down 2% here today but let's take a look we will go to a monthly on this and we will take a look at Fred's uh Fred's investment because he originally invested in 2010 okay the IPO back here in July we'll just say he he invested at the IPO High okay that was at $23 getting out 14 years later with a 10,8 162% gain that's you know hey he may be right he may be 100% right that Tesla um you know it's it's gotten it wrong that that it's failed on its Mission and again he puts it out there I don't see tells Tesla is being aligned with the original Mission which the was the main reason I invested in the company to Accel accelerate the Advent of electric transport I don't trust the leadership anymore especially Elon Musk uh and the board of directors there was a big Talent Exodus at Tesla in the last few years and the talent is what makes the company great absolutely I feel unaligned with the Tesla shareholder base when you feel unaligned with shareholders you have two options try to get get them on your side or sell I tried to get them on my side and I failed unrelated to Tesla but I still feel a factor I see signs of a recession coming and I want to be more liquid in case it's a bad one so add those up that's why he sold it you can read he he links right here I'll link to it in my uh newsletter but he links to it to his full article which is a good read a very good read it's interesting I I think it's really interesting but understand this guy is up 10,000 you know almost 11,000 % that means if he put you know let's say he put $10,000 in there uh let's see what's 10,000 time 10,863 per. that would be 1,863 I guarantee you that dude put more than $10,000 into this overtime okay and he's up it it it again it was up 11% for no real reason other than uh full self-driving is coming I tell you I have full self-driving I can also tell you that I tried it the other day and it pulled into a left-and lane and just slammed on the brakes about 100 fet from the red light for no reason thank goodness nobody was behind me but these are the problems that you as an owner you constantly see and you see all of these videos out there and you see Elon toting this one what you don't see is the real world uh you know situation and that's what scares me about Tesla okay but I will tell you here's the op the other argument former head of Tesla AI carpy I personally think Tesla is head of whmo I know it doesn't look like that but I'm still very bullish on Tesla and its self-driving program Tesla is a software problem and weo has a hardware problem software problems are much easier the latest Tesla builds they've made really good improvements I'm really impressed with what the team is doing weo looks like it's winning right now but I think when we look back in 10 years who's actually at scale and where most of the revenue is coming from I still think they Tesla are ahead that's what you have to bet on and so you have to bet on that that that's what's going on now is Elon going to take Donald Trump and become like a government efficiency expert maybe maybe but the reality is if you're betting on Tesla you've got to be comfortable we talked about this one we'll talk about Costco you know Costco next uh um you know you know this is 98 the PE is 98 you're paying 98 times earnings and you you may have a demand problem I can tell you I just bought a 2024 model y uh from a 200 and I upgraded from a 2018 model 3 it's probably five six years before I get a new one I'm not looking at upgrade that they make such good cars and they upgrade them so frequently it feels like a new car every six months I'm not inclined to upgrade could I upgrade absolutely absolutely that's what I'm pointing out is that some of these guys that are big money I don't think it makes sense to follow them but do your own research and understand what you're you're actually investing in now thanks to Trend spider we can see Insider uh buys and sells here locked Martin was aborted awarded a $3.4 billion contract with the US Army Congress members have been loading the boat relentlessly for the past 24 months locked Martin has been doing really really well is a defense contractor and we can see just since its last earnings where it was trading around 460 470 it's at 568 the algorithm makes you 88.6% you make 31% just buying and holding so look for entries on the algorithm you take a look at the weekly we're up above the Ballinger bands did Congress know something I don't know you know I it could be now there's a lot to talk about core portfolio stock paler joining the SNP well super micro joined the S&P stock down 60% since since its inclusion let's look at Super Micro because super micro actually had a good valuation they weren't overpriced they weren't you know they didn't have a huge PE when you look at paler paler has got a evaluation 94 times future earning now their growth is much better right now than uh than what uh smci is their growth is 21% their levered free cash flow they're growing at 24% that's not great but at least they're making money is this the one that you want to bet on with the uh the inclusion into the uh the S&P I don't think that's a history of oh my god I've got to get into this stock it could be a trade algorithm has you out got you out with a nice 8% gain you're seeing some weakness am I going to buy on a Friday hoping that they get added to the S&P and then Monday find out that we're all of a sudden in the recession there's a major pullback going on right now on on on semis and a lot of stocks I don't want necessarily want to be in on a Friday when I'm seeing some weakness again you know it's about patience it's about being patient now super micro we can talk about being patient I've been patient as hell with this one we're under $400 right now you're at 398 okay JP Morgan which backed them just last week after the 10 delay they said there's nothing to see here move on now they're saying ooh we're going to take it down our price Target goes from a $500 from $950 down to $500 so you tell me last week you held your $950 and now all of a sudden you cut it to 500 they chase it they chase it that's what they do and so you have to take this into you know into your mind valuation it's not crazy their growth not crazy but if they lied on some things maybe it is crazy so we talked about valuation Costco I tell you I don't want to B buy into Costco right now because it's 50 times earnings Costco has a $58 million Dirty Little Secret The Dirty Little Secret they sell $58 million of their house brand Ser uh products Kirkland and that's going up that is a cause to buy into Costco if they can sell more of their house product the revenue growth goes up but also their profit margins go up their sector median right now is uh horrible horrible the valuation is nuts on this one the growth they levered free cash flow they're grown at 19% that's great the sector's growing at 16% so you could buy a bunch of these Costco's got the second what's the number one it's Walmart it's Walmart and and what's the valuation on Walmart it's bad cuzz it's 31 times forward earnings but it's better than Costco so understand that when you look at these things that's what you've got to look at you're always going to have conflicting information in the market okay just like yesterday okay this was before uh the the earnings yesterday broadcom will Pelosi lead us to the promised land Pelosi famously bought in right here on June 12 okay is it going to go up Pelosi uh probably thought so br comes down 10% it slid they beat they beat and announced a dividend it was a good quarter their guidance wasn't perfect and so when you look at this stock the guidance needed to be perfect because their valuation is just too high and that's what the street is finding and do you want to buy this one on weakness I would argue absolutely this is part of the AI Revolution now do you want to buy into this one right now it's a freaking Friday don't look at the weekly the macd is super high the RSI is coming off of 59 it's down at 46 now you'll have a chance to buy this one at a lower price I think I'm in at like 136 or something and yes I could have sold up here at 170 180 that was great but I didn't I didn't I'm holding on to it for a long term it's in my uh my my um brokerage portfolio so again you want to take all of this in you want to take a look at it and just understand it here is a great discussion okay this is part of the education section Ross from Warrior trading talks with six other Traders $18 million in trading profits around that table it's what a 20 minute discussion and and one of the things that they they constant everybody says process process get a process in place get tools in place that help you make money find a direction okay that's all you need to do it's not that hard and if you can't just buy vo or QQQ I wish I could show you the large um the the the high net worth group that I'm in called long angle because there are people who are touting um some of these high income um you know ETFs like spy ey and QQQ yld or whatever um and and and they're touting those things and they're just not pro proven and even those High net worth people don't understand that an 18% we'll get into one um the the the one of them um it's a re nly uh we'll get into one even if they're you know they're giving you that money back you're going to get that money taken out of your Capital so again you know you want to make sure you listen to These Guys these are all momentum Traders understand this is not an investment discussion this is a trading discussion there is a big difference between the two and I would argue my wins have far been bigger on my investments versus my trades and it doesn't I'm not winning on every one of them but cutting your lo you know cutting your losers and make suring that you're adding to Winners that's how you make it now social request Kevin from YouTube what are your thoughts on XLF it's been fantastic I mean do I went over it yesterday I went over it earlier this week I think we're in a multi-year Breakout of XLF here I I think you know I think it looks really really good look at this I mean we broke right through the previous alltime highs it didn't even stop there that $41 is now your uh your resistance level or I'm sorry support and if you look at XLF is it you know if you look at XLF so I I will tell you 40% of this is uh I'm sorry 23% is Burkshire hathway and JP Morgan they have been on a tear Visa Mastercard Bank of America Wells Fargo I own bank Bank of America and Wells Fargo of those uh I don't I own some one share of birkshire hathway I think that the one that I bought the other day to celebrate Warren's birthday I won't own JP Morgan Chase as long as Jamie Diamond is a CEO and it's not because I don't like him I think he's a very good manager I just think he knew about the Epstein situation and that's kind of my ding on it again it's a moral thing if you if you don't mind that go ahead and buy JP Morgan don't let my morals get in the way of yours I'm not saying I'm any better than any anybody else it's kind of like you know I won't buy Philip Morris but I buy Pepsi and Coke they're all killing people you know it's just a matter of what do you feel comfortable with and so JP Morgan ah I'll pass up those gains but I'll buy birkar hathway in a heartbeat I'll buy Visa I'll buy MasterCard I'll buy Bank of America Wells Fargo um I don't mind but yo Goldman Sachs is in the core portfolio I think it's a great ETF do you want to buy it at all-time highs you know it's trading between 45 and 31 and you're trading at 45 right now I don't know I mean you know the momentum fantastic momentum I talk about this all the time you know of the five grade factors of an ETF M momentum expenses dividends and risk and liquidity it's gotten a and momentum that's one of the strongest you know up 10% year-to date if we go and look at this and we look at the market data and we s sort this over three years you know Energy's number one technology number two Industrials you know uh the banking sector XLF it's number four four it's up 18% over 3 years but then you take it in and you go to one year it's up 30% in one year year date it is up 19% it is uh you know utilities is the only one beating it this year it's up 19% so it's great would I buy it here I'd probably wait for it to pull back to like 40 uh I'm sorry 42 43 I'd feel a little bit more comfortable there but if you're just buying it for long term you're not going to remember that you bought it between 45 and4 3 say you buy a 100 shares you know 100 shares of it is $4,500 100 shares of it you know uh but at 4,300 is $4,300 what's that $200 going to do for you you could buy an Xbox with it you can buy some stuff with it but in the long term it's not going to matter you know you have a probably have a full-time job Kevin you know unless you're watching the Giants uh lose all the time but again XLF I think it's fine Brandon from Twitter am zuu this is a double levered uh ETF two times levered on Amazon okay it it does have 24.3 months it's only two years old the algorithm makes you 12% on this buying and holding makes you 14% I would argue you do not want to buy and hold this but but this looks juicy as a trade okay the algorithm got you in right here and it got you in at what 29 20 yeah about 29 20 yeah 29 something uh I can't really read it but it's 29 2968 2968 trading at 2938 do you want to buy on a Friday it's a double lever ETF I would say no but if you're big on Amazon go ahead and buy it I mean go ahead and buy it you take a look at the regular Amazon chart the algorithm um has you in you know go ahead and buy it you're under your 200 day you're above just above your 50-day you're kind of using that 50-day as your uh your your support level so amcu I don't think it's a bad one again I'm I'm long on that one nly this is Trey from email by the way that was Brandon from uh from Twitter uh nly is uh analy capital and what are your thoughts on analy it pays a 133% dividend but isn't making any money a 13% dividend sounds nice though absolutely 133% dividend sounds fantastic unless you're going upper left to bottom right let's let just see okay say you said hey it's going to pass through its 200 day let's look at this one wow it's down 52% over four years you think a 133% dividend yearly over four years is going to cover your 52% hell no hell no there are better places in the market so let's look at analy Capital is it making money it's not covered by the Quant uh what is this it's a re it's a re a diversified Capital manager engages in mortgage Finance the company invest in agency Ma mortgage backed Securities collateralized by Residential Mortgages I don't know enough about this business to say oh my God it's fantastic the Wall Street price Target is $21 it's 4% when you look at its dividend it's f um dividend is 12.91 that's the forward dividend okay five-year growth rate minus 10% so you're you're losing 10% to gain 12% dividend growth zero years they're not increasing their dividend so I I don't like this when we look at the financials of this yes they are making money it's not true that they're not making money they're just not making a profit so if you're paying 133% out and you're not making a profit you know again you're not making a profit I I don't get it I mean it sounds great but companies that pay these huge dividends they just tend to lose the capital at the end and all of a sudden you know they're issuing more stock in order to pay the dividend or they're cutting the dividend which kills the stock it's a losing game I just don't get it I you know there are plenty of stocks out there that make money and there is a time and place for REITs I don't know that sector again this is like asking asking McDonald's about a Whopper in my mind I don't think it's worth it Trey there's better places out there but again I'm a douche on the internet so do your own research hey Gary can you cover Micron strong strong in the Quant I love the podcast thanks for listening Jeremy let's look at Micron it is strong it it is super super strong and it's had this strong uh buy rating since 102 okay since $102 in near 86 and it continues to go down this is part of semiconductors being cyclical and they're getting killed the spefic specifics about uh Micron is look at the profit margin they have an 11% profit margin where the rest of the sector has a 49% profit margin okay that's just average when you look at the valuation they're not cash flow positive um they're they're uh let's see they're they're levered cash they don't have any money that they're making and that's the problem now when this turns into a an actual money-making um uh machine then you can take it uh and the reason it's is strong on the Quan is because they are turning capex into sales um they even a margin very good 28% but again that's all you know accounting kind of stuff now the revision when we look at the revisions 27 up two down 29 up on Revenue one down when you look at the ratings and you look at Wall Street ratings they all say it's a buy $59 price Target but you take a look at that and they chased it up now the stock looks really juicy it's it's it's a you know company where they they make specialized chips and and their chips are needed I don't specifically know what they do but I know their chips are needed the problem is the profitability and you've broken your 50 days so from a technical standpoint when we look at this daily chart your 50 days is going down towards the 200 that's going to take momentum okay momentum's going to be down the previous highs where you saw this at $97 okay we'll go back here it was the 2021 we'll look at the weekly because that will be probably the uh the previous all-time highs yeah this is going all the way back to like 2,000 let's go to monthly we can't even do it on a weekly you're going all the way back to 2,000 July of 2000 that's where you're trading where could you go down to look at this stock again look at that stock so where could you go down to on a monthly basis your macd is just starting to cross down your RSI is coming off of uh 76 back in June now in September so far you're at 50 what what happened the last time it was a 50 uh it kind of traded sideways and then you got a huge bounce up with AI you know they started talking about AI are you going to get that bounce up I don't know but I wouldn't expect this one to all of a sudden turn around momentum is a big factor in the the stock market and when you look at the momentum you're down 33% over three months you're down 5% over 6 months now nine months and one year you're positive but again momentum is a hard factor to break so I don't want somebody going in there and saying hey oh my God I'm gonna get this one no no you're not you know you can try and time it you know the algorithm it makes you 64% over the last two years whereas you make 55% buying and holding what happened had a nice 3% gain there what eight maybe 8% gain great gain you know you could have gotten more if you just you know bought and sold over 100 but again I I you know where's the downside on this one I don't know you're you're oversold at 28 are you buying on a Friday no are you selling on a Friday I don't know that I'd necessarily sell into this one but I definitely wouldn't add to it and try in dollar cost average I definitely would not do that at dollar cost average on your way up not on your way down that you know your dollar cost average if you bought up here at uh 134 you don't dollar cost average during this time you dollar cost average during this time from August 5th to uh August 22nd you don't dollar cost average from uh July 2nd to August 5th you absolutely do not you dollar cost average when you have confirmation into strength so let's talk about uh some of the the the bullish stocks mlx is up half a percent today nlx you buy it for the 9% dividend you love that uh you know anal Capital which pays the 13% I'd much rather have mlx that is an energy stock that pays a 9% dividend look at that growth okay that's the stock I want is it on its way down I don't think so I think if anything it might be coming down to 36 but you know I'll take the 9% dividend and just buy on the you know sell on the the the dips there I'll use the algorithm which makes you 15% versus buying and holding makes you 28% as that starts to flip uh you know because it was making you more money buying it you using the algorithm as that starts to flip I'll start to trim it as it starts to get highs here you know if I'm looking at this chart and I'm saying you know where did it hit uh resistance before right around 40 we're 43 that's when you want to start trimming and if you're wondering where did I get this well look you hit it once you hit it twice you hit it three times and then you came up here and you passed right by it so that turns into support okay as you break that that's when you want to get out of this stock and and this is a weekly this is going to be a long-term buy and hold for me energy transfer this is another one I think this one pays a 12% dividend this is another one that you want to take a look at analy Capital total crap look at this one in the energy sector you had this Golden Cross right here at 10 it's all all the way up at 16 you got the CEO buying a ton of this stuff so again do you want to buy it probably not on a Friday but this one has been a long-term Buy and Hold uh even with the dividend dkng this is DraftKings the algorithm just got you in at 35 after last night's game uh and them offering three I think three months of uh or three weeks or one month of NFL plus if you get it I think it's um I think it's uh what is it dra not DraftKings but the other one that's offering flutter um that's offering the the NFL ticket for like three weeks or something um but yeah you got those you got PDD General Dynamics I'll put it on the newsletter so I I've went on for a while I thought this was going to be a quick one it wasn't I just talked too much my apologies have a great weekend um I will put out the paid newsletter tomorrow we'll be doing something special maybe in the paid newsletter so uh take a look for it and the newsletter just so you know it's free during the week daily stock. substack docomo if you're watching the video l i n KTR R.D STP pick have a great weekend up the trading B my heart starts pound daily stock pick trading podcast in my ears guiding me through my hopes and fears soon in Daily don't miss a single show sign up for the newsletter that us help we grow taking it making moves we being success we together will carer no room for any less every morning I wake up to the sound of the trading Bell my heart stes to down daily stoping trading podcast in my ears guiding me through my hopes and fears in Daily 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