Predicting Who Will Win the 2024 Presidential Election

okay so this is a live stream I'm live my name is Matt beat uh known online is Mr beat I used to be known in the classroom as Mr beat and my first uh series that I made on YouTube that was watched by just people that were not my students was my presidential elections in American history series uh people watched it for fun back in 2016 meanwhile I had taught um at I was teaching High School social studies economics American government American history and we we predicted who would be the president in 2016 to to my amazement and that's what we're going to do tonight using the same methods but I brought in special guests to help predict who will be the next president of the United States as you all know uh this election coming up here uh in less than two months we have the two main major party candidates cam uh Kam Kamala Kamala Kamala Harris I'm starting to sound like uh Republicans by the way I say her name now I've been listening to Republican streams anyway KLA Harris um and Donald Trump and uh this been a crazy election the video that I will be making um is going to be a crazy episode for sure if you want to get caught up you can watch my I put the playlist in the description I also have my book here the ultimate presidential election book uh every election in American history is in there but no you a lot of you are not here for for me or for any of that you are here uh for my special guests so I'm gonna bring them on here I have the lians here uh and let's all give them a warm welcome here we go thank you so much yes thank you for being here thanks for um taking the time I know you've had a long day especially alen U with uh I was watching your other live stream you just did you knew I ran six files today yes and you know no big deal taught a class and was also like on other exactly media Outlets um but yeah so if you don't know who um Allan Litman is here uh he's kind of a legend he's kind of a big deal uh he's an an American political historian uh teaches at American University in uh Washington DC which I I was there actually last year it would have been cool to meet you in person maybe someday um but yeah uh claim to fame are his 13 keys to the white house uh first came up with them what in the 1980s is that right 81 81 the year I was born okay yeah that's amazing yeah so I didn't find out about you until um 2016 right um and that was when a lot of people found out about you I think um and you've really uh just become a really credible source for predicting American presidential elections I mean experts oftentimes are just people who know their stuff so well that they can predict the future they can be these fortune tellers and so I think uh you should be honored that so many people tune in to uh to you now on your YouTube channel uh make sure you subscribe to their YouTube channel speaking of which uh the gentleman on the upper right hand uh corner on the screen there is his son Sam liman who uh by my understanding you run that channel um and yeah I was right I I know I assumed correctly but yeah so uh they just got done live streaming over there and um if you haven't caught a live stream by these two uh it's incredible uh very just uh I love it I've been tuning into to you guys for a few months the last few months um just the dynamic between you two is really uh fun to watch and especially considering that Sam like I don't know how much do you know about American politics how much are you in this world I'm not in this world in my day-to-day life at all I work in film and media and Communications and in my day-to-day life I don't work in it at all I know quite a bit just because my dad is alen lickman and growing up you know he rubbed off that political itch a little bit on to me m and my mother of course yeah um but I didn't study history I didn't study political science none of that that jazz so um yeah I sort of uh uh fit into the producer role on our Channel and the host role and trying to just add a little bit of maybe like you said some dynamic between us some comedy between us um but I know enough again being the son of my parents to uh hold my own a little bit absolutely um okay so I know time is precious here so let's get right into it um Dr liman uh if you could just inter like for the for my those in my audience who are not familiar with your 13 keys at all could you just introduce them sure everyone yeah thank you Max all right here's the thing the keys to the White House pay no attention to the pundits they're my buddies and they're smart but they have no scientific basis for their opinions no track record in successful predictions they ignore the polls which are snapshots and are abused by clerks like Nate silver who compile polls and often are wrong like he was in 2016 instead the keys to the White House my prediction system the 13 Keys Taps into the structure of how American presidential elections really work as votes up or down on the strength and performance of The White House Party and that's what the keys gauge and there is a simple decision rule the keys are phrased as true false questions where an answer of true always favors the White House Party and an answer of false favors their being boot out booted out of power and if six or more questions are false the White House Party is a predicted loser this system has been right since I predicted Ronald Reagan's reelection in April 1982 nearly three years ahead of time in the midst of what was then the worst recession since the Great Depression when his approval ratings were down in the gutter and of course as Mr beat says I was not very popular in 90% plus Washington DC that's Democratic when I predicted Trump to win in 2016 but the point is my predictions are scientific they have nothing to do with my personal political views so keep in mind six false keys and the White House Party is a predicted loser fewer than six there are predicted winner and the keys look at things like midterm elections incumbency internal party battles for the White House Party third parties short and long-term economy policy change social unrest Scandal foreign slm military failure and success and only two keys of anything to do with the candidates and they have very high threshold Keys asking whether the candidates are one of those once in a generation inspiration broadly transformational candidates like Franklin Roosevelt or Ronald Reagan and again of the keys it's governing not campaigning accounts that's why I introduced my predictions before this UPC was then an upcoming presidential debate yeah so we're gonna I'm gonna pull up your 13 Keys here in a moment um but before we do that um really three things popped into my head when you were talking just now first of all um you know everybody looks at the polls I always joke around it's like a a drug addiction you're just like the the true political science junkies that are all here watching right now they're they're always checking sites like 538 but you made a really good point that I want to stress that this is just a snapshot this is just a moment in time um it's when we're talking about a broader bigger picture Um this can be quite a distraction no yes and the other thing is the error margin of the polls is far greater than they would have you believe you know the plus and minus 3% that's pure statistical era that's the era you would get if you had a huge jaw of green and red balls and you pulled out a sample to estimate the percentage of green and red balls in the jar but human beings are not green and red balls most people don't respond to pollsters people may lie they may not have focused on the election yet it won't change their minds they may tell posters what they think they want to hear and critically no one has voted yet so they got to guess at the likely voters and every pollster has uh a different way of guessing finally one pollster just the other day said look the real margin of error is nine points you have no confidence unless the gap between the two candidates is 10 points or more which renders all these Pauls noise dang that's incredible um the other thing news people are not green and red balls breaking news directly from Alan L right there right from the prediction Professor himself so yeah I guess we just need to stop looking at all these dang polls then I guess is the L they are addictive I'll give you that like a drug uh but okay two other things before I forget one um you have not hidden the fact over the years that you are a member of the democratic party that you fa generally favor Democratic uh party candidates um I have always been a unaffiliated or independent but my audience at this point knows that I uh do not like Donald Trump that I think he's one of the worst Presidents in American history I think it's important that our audience knows these biases ahead of time um do you want to say anything about that like before yes okay yeah I do have my political views I don't hide them but the critical thing about my predictions is their predictions not endorsements they have nothing to do with my political views my first prediction was Ronald Reagan yeah the most conservative president at that point since the 1920s my most controversial prediction which made me kind of a p% plus Washington DC Democratic was Donald Trump so I predicted the two most conservative presidents of our time along with more liberals like Obama and now Harris so my predictions have zero to do with my political point VI in fact I always give anyone who wants to be a forecaster of any kind the following advice here's the advice to be a successful forecaster got no history but that ain't it got no politics but that ain't it got to know uh math but that ain't it the secret is keeping your own personal political views out of it if I predict it according to my personal political views I'd be useless as a forecast you might as well flip a coin as listen to me but because my uh predictions are analytic and total nonpartisan they actually have some real meaning yeah and just to uh kind of clarify on 2016 this is the um I I tweeted this out earlier today that you've got nine out of the last 10 uh elections predicted correctly uh 2000 was the exception but really I mean that was Al Gore who you know many people argue that he really was the one who won that one um I started making my predictions in 2016 both you and I um predicted that Donald Trump would win even though we were not Donald Trump fans I used economic data which I'll be sharing here at the end of the stream you used your 13 Keys um I think yeah like that does something I mean that says a lot about credibility also though like it is quite incredible that this election year is it seems to be like a year that is just I don't know going against a lot of trend like going against a lot of history it seems like I mean who would have thought that we would be in the situation now right like with Joe Biden dropping out so late in the race after winning primaries uh how much did that influence like your 13 keys because I I saw you on Twitter like worried about Biden like you were saying Biden does not should not drop out so like what made you change your mind about that yeah let me first give the big answer and that is my favorite comedian is the late great Gilda rodner and her character Rosanne rosan Dana was famous for saying there's always something every year there's something unique and some critic says you have to change your keys we have an African-American running never had that before America's not ready for an African-American we have a woman running never had that before we have a presidential candidate on tape bragging about uh grabbing women by their private parts never had that before and of course this year we have uh a incumbent president very late dropping out and I have three answers to that answer number one is you can't change a system on the Fly that is a recipe for era answer number two is the keys although they're based on history I'm not psychic Gene Dixon with a crystal ball or speaker Mike Johnson who claims the almighty talks to him I'm an historian but the keys are incredibly robust developmentally they go all the way back to 1860 the election of Abraham Lincoln when we had no automobiles no planes no radio no television we're an Agricultural Society women didn't vote African-Americans were Enslaved the electorate was almost entirely white males 21 years and over so the keys have endured through vastly greater changes in our society our economy our politics our demography than anything we've seen in recent years third answer is the keys fully take into account what happened with Biden and the transition to Harris I had warned warned against what the Democrats were doing for several reasons first I thought it was absurd that the Democrats were openly and publicly right out there trashing their sitting president I've never seen that before I also thought that spineless Democrats were going to push Biden out and lose the incumbency key but fatally also have a big party brawl and pile on top of that the loss of the contest key no white house party has ever been reelected since 1900 when they lost both those keys but they grew a spine they grew a brain they United behind Harris which meant only one key was lost it was an open seat but incumbents often win when there's an open seat like Herbert Hoover in 1928 or George HD bush in 1988 so the keys fully took into account exactly what happened uh with the transition finally as a general point I'm not so arrogant to say that even the pattern 60 years couldn't be changed by something cataclysmic but the point is you would never know until after it happened you can't change your system beforehand exactly that see I was going to actually ask you a followup to that because you say they're robust but you're you're you're a man of science you're a historian of course you're going to like you're still curious that oh wow that's exciting that we had a curveball in there this time around I'm going to have to adjust things after the fact um yeah thank you for that's a great answer let's just dive right into the 13 keys and uh yeah Sam feel free to jump in anytime don't don't be shy now uh way sharper than I am you know he's young and sharp I'm old and daughtering um the okay and also before I share the 13 Keys tracker here um I just want to uh point out that the evidence that I rely on the economic um evidence is also robust it's been um accurate going back to the 1940s not as far back as 1860s so the 13 Keys is proba that's still pretty good better than almost any other forecaster yeah so I mean I think together I mean you put everything we're piling on top of each other here tonight I think we've got a pretty solid case um but yeah so here is you can anybody can visit this I put the link in the description we're just going to go through it briefly as quickly as we can if you uh if you want to explain like where we're at at this moment how you I know it's what nine of the 13 keys I believe uh favor Harris okay I'm one one through yeah I'll just fill it out here go ahead key one midterm gains well before I actually hit a very quick Point sure I get 10 emails a day from people who claim We Know Better how they're call the key so my answer to that is you want to develop your own prediction system based on how you call factors go right ahead but if you're going to use my system you got to stick to how each key is defined and how the keys have been rated ever since 1860 so let's go mandate key number one that's based on US House elections the Democrats lost House Seats in 2022 despite doing better than expected that key is false okay so that's key number two uh contest key as I explained they got smart avoided a contest by uniting behind Harris the key is true key number three incumbency key obviously with Biden stepping down that key is false key number four third party and here's the only time I ever have to use polls because I don't know whether a candidate is going to get five% or more of the vote to turn that key but I don't take them at face value we have the lickman waste vote syndrome I love you RFK Jr but you can't win so actually vote I'm not going to vote for you so he'd have to be polling at least at 10% he's totally which I think is partly because of Harris since the voters don't have to decide anymore between two old white guys hate to say that being an old white guy myself but I think it's fact I think that key is true next key short-term economy I've heard all this talk you know people are unhappy with the economy there's inflation of course you can counter that as you know with the stock market or jobs but that's not how the key is defined the key is a very quantitative key there is no recession in the election year there is no recession there's no way in less than two months a recession will grip the country that key is true the long-term economic people are people are always coming into our chat saying but people perceive the economy like this or people are saying the economy is that these Keys have nothing to do with public perception right right absolutely nothing it's a quantitative key now if you want to develop a system based on public perception I encourage it go right ahead but I've never seen such a system that has predictive value I don't think my prediction is that won't work no it will not work it's never worked and people like to criticize but they're not going to do the hard work of developing their own system all right next one long-term economy also quantitative was economic growth real per capita during the term at least equal to the average of the previous two terms it's been double that key is clearly true we now get to policy change clearly huge changes in policy between Trump and Biden you know Biden resending a lot of the executive orders on immigration and the environment the chips Bill the infrastructure Bill the stimulus Bill the inflation and climate Bill the rejoining the Paris Accords on climate change huge changes that key is true so completely blue solid blue that's solid blue okay it's not gonna change social yeah unrest Sam is there big social unrest massive enough to call into question the stability of the country no it has to be widespread and sustained for this key to flip and what have we had instead of that sporadic protests um not reaching the numbers that could flip this key I mean we're talking about millions of people across the country would have to um would would be needed to flip this key right Dad you're right on the money as always that key is solid blue and I was at the DNC um I was expecting much bigger protest for um the yes people of Gaza um and I I I think that Harris has made it so that she's trying to like tow that line and she's done you know trying to appease both sides of it I think she's done fairly well with that I think you're right I think again the switch to Harris just as it had a positive effect for Democrats on third party has had a positive effect on Democrats on social unrest both because of what you say and because the protests are directed against Biden who's no longer front and center it's now Harris front and center much harder to get enthusiasm to protest against her we then come to my favorite key the Scandal key Sam is Biden complicit in a major acts of corruption this is one that we get pushed back a lot on Mr be people say yeah because people talk about Hunter Biden a lot they talk about um you know all these cases that the Congress the the house is bringing up against Biden but as my dad States very clearly right there are these very clear thresholds for these Keys the Scandal key it has to be bipartisan right it can't be just Republicans who are going after Biden yep um and it has to be um it has to be directed towards the president directly it can't be Hunter Biden it can't be some peripheral person in his administration can't even be a son it couldn't be Billy uh Carter the reprobate brother of Jimmy Carter as Sam says it's got to hit the president himself and Republicans have come up empty even their Smoking Gun witness you might remember this Mr beat uh Mr smernoff supposedly had the goods on Biden he was arrested by the FBI for lying about Biden and for propagating Russian propaganda that key is solid blue and we're almost in the post Scandal era I think after trump it feels like scandals don't have as much uh like they don't really phase us as much as they used to maybe that's I don't know yeah maybe Trump has aerd us to corruption I think you know but I can't change the key obviously all right we now come to the two shakiest keys foreign slm military failure and success got two Wars raging Wars are always uncertain right they're fluid we know about the vicissitudes of War so these are hard to call but I split them which I think is accurate I count the foreign policy failure key as false they haven't avoided a failure because of God it's a humanitarian disaster with no end in sight no ceasefire no hostage release I understand we don't have boots on the ground but we are deeply invested in the Middle East I count that one red ke as I said though are you going likly red or certainly red dad uh lightly red but very close to certainly because the one way that could be reversed how could that be reversed Sam what could Biden do unlikely right a peace deal in Gaza given that he's got a deal with the belligerent Netanyahu and the impossible Hamas I just don't see it so I give Gaza red and you I give the other success blue for Ukraine it was Biden and Biden alone who put together the Coalition of the West not Merkel or Trudeau or macron it was Biden who put together the Coalition of the West that sto Putin cold from conquering Ukraine and then going on as he would have to threaten our NATO allies and Biden's continuing support has enabled Ukraine to survive for over two and a half years no one expected that and even to make incursions into Russian territory I think this will go down historically as a great presidential achievement so I give that one blue so solid blue I would say light blue you know thees of War I do have to push back a little bit here because I do know that many Republicans argue that we should have nothing to do with that war we should stop sending weapons uh but you're viewing more longterm right like you're thinking like oh in 50 years we're going to look back and might be like oh that was actually a very brilliant very important plus if you look at the most recent polling this isn't horse race polling this is what people think there was a huge surge of support for Ukraine the Republic position is very much of a minority position and it is even held by all Republicans there's the Nikki Haley Chris Christie you know group of more uh internationally oriented Republicans all right last two keys the Charisma Keys yeah remember these are really high threshold you have to be a broadly appealing transformational once in a generation type of candidate only been about half a dozen of them since 1900 and you know who they are they're not hard to find right Teddy Roosevelt Franklin Roosevelt Dwight Eisenhower because he was a war hero it's Charisma hero key John F Kennedy Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama in 2008 that's it over 120 years whatever you may think of Harris she hasn't really had time and isn't established yet as a Franklin Roosevelt so that one is red and finally the challenging Party candidate is not charismatic or in National here obviously the guy who get out of service for bone spurs is not a national hero but there are those who think he's charismatic and indeed they're right he's a great showman but he doesn't fit the definition of the keys which is matters not what you think of him he is not a broadly appealing transformational candidate his Showmanship appeals only to narrow base which doesn't fit the definition of the key as president his approval rating on average was 41% right at the bottom historically of all presidents he lost the popular vote in two consecutive elections by a combined 10 million votes Reagan and FDR won six combined elections by landslides that one is solid blue okay so there you have it it was uh just like we said earlier nine true uh statements and four false so this means that Harris wins if you want to play around with this tool like I said it's in a link to it is in the description of this video everybody already knew this though if they know anything about alen they know that oh he's already made his predictions you did last week I I uh I'm glad I'm talking to you now after some of that Fan Fair is over with because um I think you know the one that I always at the most are those keys five and six and I know there's different economic data you can look at there are perceptions as uh Sam brought up the fact that there's a lot of people many of them happen to be Republicans that have this perception that the economy is not strong right now primarily I would argue because they are still thinking about the high inflation of recent years despite inflation cooling uh in the last few months they still remember those 2019 prices um I don't know do I think like before I show you my predictions I want to hear from you guys do you think that maybe I I care about the economy too much maybe James Carville was uh was wrong when he says when he said is the economy stupid James Carwell was definitely wrong and has been wrong for decades you know he made his name on one thing and one thing only and has been trading on that for over 30 years it's not the economy if that was the case Hillary Clinton should have easily won in 2016 there was nothing particularly bad about the economy it was a very decent economy we're in the midst of an uprising recovery from the recession of 2008 uh Hubert Humphrey should have won in a landslide against Richard Nixon in 1968 as you know Mr beat the 1960s economy were perhaps the best economy this nation has ever seen so sometimes it's the economy sometimes it isn't that's why I have 13 indicators and not two just a little push back in 1968 inflation was creeping up in 1968 although you were right though like the big trends were the economy was still strong and same thing with 2016 it's like overall yeah it was like that slow long recovery after the Great Recession however there was just slight changes you could point to slight imperfections in the economy every single year come on you never know which of them is big enough I'm so glad that you like disagree with this so because now I want to show you like and I want to get your reaction too this is totally what I wanted um so yeah like uh there's the thumbnail so when I taught economics I started the economics class um at my high the high school I taught at um in 2015 and the first I I'll never forget having those students like oh here's a fun lesson that I found U through the St Louis Federal Reserve they had these free lessons for economics teachers and they said hey did you know that you could predict who's going to be the next president of United States by just looking at um these of this specific economic data and the three things were something you already mentioned Allen was uh GDP per capita growth um the inflation rate and the unemployment rate and Ronald Reagan's misery Index right that's yeah so that that was mentioned a lot definitely in the 1980s but so um we I had my students uh you know just to kind of show them how it worked start go back to the 1940s when they they first started tracking this and then they actually like looked at who won the election and sure enough like if the economic indicators were in a positive direction then whoever the incumbent Party candidate was won the presidential election and so the first thing that we looked at was the misery index which is simply just the inflation rate plus the unemployment rate obviously misery index you don't want misery misery sucks I mean unless you're you know you're I'm not gonna get into that talk about massachus here come on yeah yeah yeah yeah so you want Misery the misery index to go down from the previous year and it's always comparing it to the previous year so what you do is you take the average inflation rate for the entire previous year not not by month and you also take the entire unemployment rate for the previous year when you say the previous year do youe yeah I I pulled it all up um and so the misery index rule says that the incumbent political party usually wins if the misery index has not gone up in the election year compared to the previous year now the misery index rule does not always predict who will be the next president so I go further with my I used to go with my students and then now on this channel and we also look at the real GDP per capita growth rule which says the incumbent political party usually wins if the growth rate of a of real GDP which admittedly sometimes the data isn't completely accurate because you know a lot of times you don't really know this until several months or even like longer than that what the actual GDP per capita um rate is but again if uh the political party that's in power usually wins if the growth rate of GDP per capita is increasing at a higher rate in the election year compared to the previous year I have a question go ahead yeah I get all this but here's my question all this data is lagged right it's not reported at the moment and correct at what point in the election year given the lag can you use this prediction system see that's a great question I was actually I was going to add that as a a caveat because we we could actually make a prediction here and then later on realize that some of that economic data was wrong and have to adjust accordingly so that is definitely something to keep in mind I'm gonna actually This is Gonna Save my butt later on if I predict wrong as well but yeah so put both of these together and uh if both the real GDP per capita goes down in the election year compared to the previous year and the misery index has gone up in the election year compared to the previous year the incumbent will lose so in other words uh in 2016 um we had a situation where the misery index I if I remember correctly had actually gone down or gone up yes it had gone up but the real GDP per capita um had also gone up and so it was one it was a mixed situation um but you if you have both of these happening then it's a guaranteed loss and this is like so basically um going back all the way to the 1940s you can actually look at all the data it's publicly available and it's right in every single presidential election and so I crunched the numbers in 2020 I made a video about it that everyone can go back and watch and that's how I predicted that Joe Biden would win of course that was a little bit easier in 2020 I considered considering how crazy things were that that year but yeah so looking at this year 2023 uh compared to 2024 the average inflation rate in 2023 this is for the entire year was 4.1% uh the unemployment rate for the entire year was 3.6% leaving us a misery index of 7.7 which again you just simply add 4.1 plus 3.6 uh and then you look at now the numbers I have for this year the inflation rate of 3.1% I literally waited to do this live stream now because we got new inflation data you guys know when just yesterday just yesterday yeah5 and so that actually brought it down a little bit more 2.5 yeah so this brought it down it was H before that 2.5% inflation rate announced yesterday the inflation rate for the entire year was 3.2 so this brought it down further inflation is going down unemployment rate has actually been uh inching up a little bit but regardless it's still fairly low so that doesn't matter if it's inching up according to the misery index U and so if you look at at at this um yeah the misery index goes It goes down and so that's a good sign for who the incumbent the incumbent in just to clarify the incumbent party right not party yeah so these are measured against the administration I do struggle with this because like I wonder like if this econ e omic data was exactly the same but Biden was still the nominee I would have a hard time because I just think that Biden was a weak candidate and so I don't know like that's stick to your model man stick to your model right to your model because you have no idea what would have happened if Biden stay I was gonna say and that's that was just my personal opinion okay so real GDP per capita in uh 2023 uh was 66,500 for 2024 the latest data we have is based on the the second quarter which showed that real GDP per capita grew to $ 68,800 which means we have growth which means who's gonna win this election Harris Harris yep the incumbent wins two great minds come to the same conclusion yes we do so the misy misery index went down point6 just to recap here real GDP per capita went up $1,333 therefore the incumbent party wins despite it doesn't again it doesn't matter that Joe Biden dropped out it's the incumbent party correct because you can also say the same thing about um uh you know like uh going back to H let's see yeah from 1988 is a good example of this uh George HW Bush winning uh taking over uh Ronald Reagan's throne but uh yeah so I guess the caveat again we have to admit that we the economic data could change in these final six or seven weeks uh we won't have that information and we'll have new inflation data and unemployment data right before the election before the election yeah so yeah I might have to do an emergency live stream I don't know but uh and then of course like adjustments even later after that after the election is done but yeah that's we are reaching the same conclusion here so this my official prediction is kamla Harris will win you know Mr one one of the good things one of the great things about the keys is it's hard to move the keys right and I think that's what my dad pointed out what what you're talking about in terms of your keys there's new economic data in an election year multiple times right yeah I think one of the good thing about the keys is it's not easy to shake the keys this the keys are pretty much set in stone they don't move they don't waver too easily unlike PS right which are snapshots which move all the time right so that's what makes I think in my mind the keys very effective is it's not easy to turn a key it's not easy to turn keys back and forth you know what I'm saying almost never happens late in the election year that's right I mean my only answer well my only push back on that is that you know the problem with all the social sciences is that there you know a lot of times it's it could be subjective our interpretations of things can be subjective um instead of just like looking at data you know you're a lot of times you're like okay well what was okay was that really a major foreign military success and I think you could have debates there so what do you say about yeah I want to respond to that because I've been hearing that for 40 years of course you have I first developed the keys I was blasted by the professor forecasters I had committed the cardinal sin of subjectivity and my response was no the keys are not subjective they're judgmental and historians make judgments all the time about history and they're not random judgments they're very tightly constrained as you heard even briefly and they're much more detailed defined in my book predicting the next president but even quickly you can see they're very tightly defined and they've been answered since 1860 and the next answer must be consistent so I denied that the keys were subjected it took the forecasting Community about 15 to 20 years and they completely turned around 180 degrees they suddenly realized their big fancy models that tried to be purely objective didn't work and that the best models that worked were models like the keys that combined so-called cut and dried indicators like real per capita growth with these judgmental indicators and all of a sudden the keys were the hottest thing in forecasting foresight the international Journal of Applied forecasting devoted a whole special issue to the keys I twice keynoted the international forecasting Summit I published in the Harvard data science review in the uh International Journal of forecasting I presented at the American Political Science Association and so the keys are now thoroughly validated and accepted by the scientific Community does that mean there's absolutely no room for judgment no that's one of the beauties of the keys and why they're used as a teaching tool because unlike ordinary models you know you don't learn anything to answer each key you got to go through all of American history since 1860 and that's why there's such a terrific teaching tool but even if there is some degree of judgment that as the forecast Community is now recognized is vastly outweighed by the fact that including judgmental indicators enables you to include a much wider range of indicator better predictions and Mr Beast I mean especially you know now in the internet age I think that's the thing that you see most most often is people going online saying these keys are subjective you're better off picking a name out of a hat etc etc we're I see that every single day all the time you know what I mean and that's why I appreciate you having us on and explaining the keys one by one because people can then see there are definitive rules for each of these Keys which are based on hundreds of years of historical precedent right he's not making these rules up willy-nilly they're based on past presidential elections press presidential elections and how these outcomes came to be right and then he made the rules right um yeah I wish people would clip my dad's statement and show it to all these people who are out there saying that oh the keys are subjective the keys are as good as picking a name out of a hat because they're not subjective at all really right he said at best maybe they're judgmental but even the judgmental Keys have these very um clear-cut defined rules to them yeah I don't saying William Howard Taff you know and uh Jerry Ford are once in a generation inspirational candidate it's not hard to answer these Keys uh yeah know like and did you call me Mr Beast Sam a lot of people are oh [ __ ] did I oh my I'm sorry Mr beat Mr beat sorry hey you look much too young to me to have been teaching teaching school way back in 2015 but maybe I'm just getting old hey you look young for your age too when I found out thank you I've been teaching at American University for 51 years I am the senior person at the University I think that is amazing pretty good right you mentioned your book I want to make sure that uh everybody is aware like you've written several books but um the oh little gosh uh make sure put it on the screen here um that's not it uh your book here there it is predicting the next president is the is that your latest one the keys to the white no that's the 20120 book oh 2024 book now out same title except it's the 2024 version is now I messed that up but yeah uh I wanted to really stress that you are very transparent about your whole process um not only in your books but also the fact that you're on YouTube now uh with Sam like you're breaking it down you're taking questions from the audience um so I encourage everyone to go over there who anyone who's skeptical um because again it's clear that I you've heard uh critic like I brought up criticisms that I know you've heard so much at this point now you're probably sick of hearing them but I think a lot you know when you're it's expected that when you and now that you have this nety like this Fame of like being able to predict elections what comes with it also are the haters especially absolutely yeah especially if you're telling them something they don't want to hear so you know Mr beat I'll say one thing yeah there's one thing worse than having all the haters like I have and that's being ignored you know if you've had haters you've made a mark yeah that's gonna help me uh feel better about my yeah sure and you know the other thing Mr Beast is that the keys don't just um create haters from the opposite political party you're predicting they also take a lot of heat from mainstream media YouTube streamers twitch streamers because they kind of go against their everyday model of how they talk about elections right this horse race style um type of discussion around elections which is the total antithesis to the mainstream media to streamers they need something every day to talk about right but if the issue is hey the keys are set they don't really move that much these polls these day-to-day campaign things don't really matter that much that crumbles their entire system yeah definitely uh and please people if come up with a better model if you think you can uh like sure uh and you're definitely trolling me now Sam I know you're trolling me calling me Mr Beast again you did it on purpose no I did you did it on purpose oh my god did I do it again let me say something let me say something I do not mess with Mr Beast I don't like that guy if you look into him he's done some really messed up stuff you seem like a good guy I like you Mr beat okay I like him too and I've never seen him before I didn't even know who he was yeah hey I'm it's an honor to talk to to both of you um and like I said I I've enjoyed your stream last few months and I hope you keep doing it uh you might just take next year off I guess but you know in 2028 love to if you kept doing it again or just the heck with it keep doing it in like uh all the time um for those are unaware this past hour we've been joined by the liman Alan liman and Sam liman um and if you do not know anything about Allan lman in particular just Google him uh and his 13 keys to the White House um subscribe to their Channel um it's an honor to to meet you both and I just want to thank you for being here tonight um yeah thank you Mr appr remember it's Allen lickman YouTube to get on to our channel oh y yes yes okay take care thank you so much for having us we really enjoyed it and I it was great meeting you for the first time bye bye great to meet you as well thank you Mr be appreciate it bye