2000 Redux Looking at the S and P 500 and similarities SCOTDAY September 4th 2024

[Music] hey everybody this is David skara so um I wasn't going to do this one for the beach because you know doing a stop chart of the day you know can be difficult to try to think of a new thing every day you know so um so but I I was thinking about today was or Tuesday was an interesting day I'm doing this Tuesday night so I'll post this Wednesday morning and it was really interesting to me because we saw the semiconductors completely fall apart so early in the morning when they were down about 5 6% they ended up down about 7 or 8% I did put a short on I want I actually was thinking about doing it last week but I wanted to see you know um how the market traded really reminds me of the fourth quarter or last four months of the year 2000 so for those of you who are unaware the FED basically stopped raising rates like now but then they didn't cut rat so a little later to January 200 um1 but you had this really close election just like now we had a tech bubble just like now and the S&P made a double top just like now so I'm going to show you the S&P chart now there was a little different and the NASDAQ was lagging on that summer rally just like now so um what I want to show you is in the S&P I'll show you below and maybe we'll do this in Parts maybe today we'll just kind of look at the S&P in 2000 you see the S&P had like this correction there was a bit of a spike in the vix that spring then we rallied into the summer and I just remember it even though it was 24 years ago I remember cuz I had been calling since late 1999 that this was a massive bubble you know my first book stock market Panic was published in October 1998 and it was talked about how we were in a bubble in the stock market and gold and commodities were bottoming that's kind of what happened over the next decade really the next 13 years into 2011 you know and you know gold Commodities would lead and stock market would leg and of course um I just talked about the entire market and then then the bubble became extremely specific s I'm just going to go down this little Hill here um to obviously the Dooms and the tech stocks so but if we go look at today we'll look at the S&P maybe we'll look at the NASDAQ tomorrow tomorrow you know I might do a little more charts tomorrow but let's just look at the S&P today and what you'll see is I'll have the S&P chart go to the addicted to profits.net the charts will be there below this video and you'll see that the S&P in 2000 had that rally then started to fall right after Labor Day and basically fell into the rest of the year and actually there wasn't a really significant rally other than a few weeks here and there till about January 2001 when the FED cut rates and it was an emergency cut and then actually the market continued lower after that little rally until March of 2001 rally had a strong bare Market rally for 2 or 3 months and then rolled over into 911 so now we've seen this double top but it's a little different we had this bust you know the vix Spike 65 that was like almost like the warning shot across the bow and then if you go look at semiconductors we'll go look at Tech STS we'll look at them again tomorrow on Thursday and you'll see that they're very lagging on this just like the tech stocks rally rally lag in 2000 but um like I said the S&P has this double [ __ ] and then began to kind of roll over so you know that was why I think there was such complacency in 2000 because even though the NASDAQ I think it got to 41 or 4200 maybe 4,300 during that summer rally it's the high was 5,000 but the S&P got right back to the high so everyone just kind of like oh yeah B markets can continue and I remember right after Labor Day in 2000 when everyone go back to work the market began to sell off and we kind of saw that yesterday so is it just one day but I just like when I look at the failing rally of a lot of these sectors in the last like 4 weeks since that big bust in early August I really see see now you have the opportunity and I've talked about in past you know I'm a big seasonal guy even last year in a bull market we had a nearly 10% correction in the S&P in September and October cuz I remember I shorted some stocks and did actually pretty good on those shorts you know during that and then I and then I got out of those shorts in late October early November cuz it was obvious that the market wasn't going to continue to fall so at the very least I would think something like that's going to happen but this looks much more toppy obviously Market kept the gdps to 100% so I I think again like 2000 we're entering we're going from you know we went from rate hikes into the FED doing nothing to rate cuts and maybe when we'll get the first if the market does start to roll over here maybe they'll only do a quarter in September the market won't like that I do think the economy is weakening and then maybe when they do kind of a first intraday type cut that's when we'll see the market really rally you know so um um you know like a significant point of view a few few weeks a few months Etc so I'm going to leave it at that so stock chart of the day today was like we're kind of remembering 2000 election year looked like an extremely close election just like this year a bubble was going on in Tech and the Fed was moving from you know kind of raising rates to no rate hikes to cutting rates so very very similar and in the fourth quarter of 2000 industrial production really really slowed down we started enter a recession so I think that's it's kind of similar so um it will be very very interesting see and like the thing is is bad news going to be good news you know if the jobs report is weak are people going to be like oh that's great the fed's going to cut or they're going to be like oh no man now this economy is finally really weakening and we're probably entering a recession and which with that case too we have to remember these market valuations price to sales price to earnings Market kep the GDP they're not priced for recession they're priced for still a kind of booming economy so I'm going to leave it at that and uh yeah tomorrow we'll take a c closer look I maybe of the similarities between the NASDAQ back in 2000 and it now thank you very much