Ukraine blame game begins

all right Alexander let's talk about what is going on in Ukraine and let's start off with the situation on the front lines in dbas we have the the storming the assault on ugar if we can call it the storming of ugar you'll let us know if that's indeed what's going on we have a worsening situation for the Ukraine military in bakov we have choad we have the Ukraine military it appears that they're TR trying to to move uh brigades and to move soldiers into pakos and into different areas in order to plug up some holes and uh and they have those holes because of the the Cur incursion and it looks like everyone is starting to acknowledge that the kers incursion Invasion whatever you want to call it was a really bad idea you even have buildt Julian rket putting putting out an article the other day saying that this was a bad idea and that is why we are seeing the front line in donbas collapse anyway Let's uh let's discuss what is happening in Ukraine you you you said that everybody's now acknowledging that the C concussion most everybody I don't know is everybody acknowledging I think pretty much all the people who matter um it's it's always interesting to me how people come around about four weeks late to the position that we took at the beginning just say caveat about how Russia is losing and then they'll admit like you'll see their title it'll be something like the successful curs incursion is coming at a cost of losing the entire War something like that they always have to add that that caveat of about how badly Russia's doing but anyway again I I apologize to people but you know if we don't mention this nobody else will just go back and watch our videos of about three or four weeks ago where we were predicting this outcome because it was completely predictable and it is where we are now the situation is rapidly becoming catastrophic we're looking at the complete collapse of Ukrainian defenses and the entire Ukrainian military position in southern dbas now let's start with ugad which is the place that you mentioned um there were reports about two or three days ago that Ukraine which is now desperately short of troops to try to plug the plug the holes that are appearing in many different places along the front lines was Shifting the 72nd Brigade which is the Brigade which has been defending UGA uh ugad strong very strong fortified position it's a it's a it's a town of about 14,000 people but it's very dense it's if you if you look at the landscape it's a serious of very high-rise buildings um built in the Soviet era basically for coal miners and you know it they Loom over the landscape it's like a kind of Castle in the middle of the open step it proved a very difficult position for the Russians to capture they've made repeated attempts to do it um they've always failed up to now and it's been defended by the 72nd Brigade which is one of Ukraine's best anyway reports were that the situation Elsewhere on the front lines has now become so bad that the Ukrainian uh mil general staff the military leadership had decided to withdraw the 72nd Brigade from V ugad to redeploy it somewhere else perhaps in K region some was saying saying more probably I think in pakros region where we're now looking at a major collapse so what then happened is with hours of that information coming out the Russians then begin a major assault not just on ugar itself but all all the places all the Fortified positions around ugad which were the responsibility of the 72nd Brigade to protect and without the control of which Ukraine will lose ugad if you look at the various places there's villages to the West there's a coal mine to the north there's various Supply roads if all of these places are lost idar itself is encircled and um either the ukrainians withdraw or they get caught in a trap and everybody is either forced to fight to the last man or they surrender on mass as we've seen happen in one or two places in the war before so that's what the Russians do the moment this news comes out that the 72nd Brigade is being withdrawn now it may be that the Russians planned this attack on ugland um and prepared for it over a long time that almost certainly is true up to a point but it could be that the timing is related to information about the 72nd Brigade it could be that the Russians are taking advantage of the withdrawal of the 72nd Brigade from ugad or there is another possibility which is that the Russians are attacking UGA at this time precisely in order to prevent the second 72nd Brigade being redeployed to other places where it is urgently needed that tells you how bad the overall situation for Ukraine now has become now pakos is obviously the place the area around pakros is the place where everybody is um talking uh about how bad the the critical the situation is we've discussed in various programs how important pakros itself is the Daily Telegraph did a mammoth article Daily Telegraph newspaper which cheers on the ukrainians every single opportunity the same journalist who wrote this Mammoth article talking about the enormous crisis in um um pakos three weeks ago was publishing another article talking about the failure of Russia's summer offensive so you can see how drastically even even the Daily Telegraph is now having to shift its position they they are reporting that Ukrainian soldiers are absolutely bewildered by the speed of events by the extent to which the collapse is happening in the area around pakros so the Russians are currently storming um Two Towns one of them is s the ukrainians Apparently tried to throw everything that they had to try to stabilize the situ situation in selo some counterattacks apparently took place the counterattacks failed yesterday we got news that the Russians are on the offensive in cavor again cavor biggish place around 24,000 people before the War important logistical Hub place that's located south of pakros if it falls pakros itself starts to look very vulnerable if selo also falls it creates problem S I mean massive problems for the ukrainians further south also it's a sort of Lynch bin a place one which holds together various parts of the Ukrainian front lines so Cavo is in crisis then yesterday we got news that another town called ukrain is currently being stoed by the Russians and we just had this morning film from ukrain it shows Russian troops inside ukrain they are in fact advancing through K's town of around 10,000 people now once not so long ago it took months for the Russians to capture towns and settlements like this now they're storming them one by one or sometimes in parallel with each other along the front lines and we have comments from Ukrainian soldiers they're saying that they can't hold back the Russians there are too many of them they're too well equipped they've got control of the air they've got control of the electronic warfare systems so that Ukrainian drones don't work very well obviously the Russians can bomb positions at will their Air Force completely dominates the landscape so this entire area this entire place not just Perros but all the forces all the Ukrainian forces nearby are now in massive Jeopardy and there are reports coming from Ukraine that there are now even discussions in Ukraine about the need to prepare for a complete bull back of all Ukrainian forces in this area to the Nea to the river um to withdraw to the NEPA because of all of these places they cannot be held for very long and well we focused on barakov because that's the place which is getting all this attention but everywhere else now the ukrainians are being pushed back they are retreating in a town called toret which was a major fortified position they're losing control of Tores they're losing control of chfar another fortified position near katos and slaviansk um in the north the K offensive is now uh um um in going to reverse we're getting it doesn't get much reporting in the west but the Russians are now advancing in coast region they're regaining ground every day maybe not huge amount of ground but remember it is a s show ultimately so the Russians have not committed huge forces there but the ukrainians are already being pushed back in kosk and everywhere right across the front line the ukrainians take losses uh their losses according to the Russians are now running at more than 2,000 men dead and wounded every day Ukraine has no hope of replacing these so what we're looking at is a collapse all across the front lines and more Russian missile strikes and we've getting reports about them this morning um uh Russians able to launch missiles right across Ukraine anywhere they wish pretty much it will uh Ukraine Ian air defense is in a state of apparent collapse we are starting to look at the disintegration of the military resistance that has been put out by Ukraine I think it's very difficult to to argue otherwise we're not perhaps quite at the end game yet but we are getting very close and if the Russians take pakros and reach the river the Neer then I think militarily we are in the end game I'm gonna ask you a question that you're probably not expecting but I I go through as as do you um a lot of the the pro Ukrainian uh accounts um as well as Pro Ukraine uh mainstream media Publications like Kev independent or KF post and then I go through social media and and I try to to get a feel as to what what they're saying in in Ukraine about what's happening on the front lines and just the general situation and I was kind of taken back at a lot of commentary about Sullivan Jake Sullivan saying that he is the a lot of accounts are saying he is the second most hated man right now in Ukraine and they were saying that because their their argument is that he's he's holding Ukraine back from long range missile strikes he's telling us that there are no attacks left he's telling us that uh that whatever targets were providing to the US uh in order to to strike pre-24 Russian territory they're out of range of us long-range missiles so it's not going to make any difference uh a lot of talk about how they're very upset with Jake Sullivan because the United States and Jake Sullivan they appear to be holding Ukraine back for victory by not greenlighting the long range uh missile attacks and the the argument the cope I call it a cope is is that uh Sullivan and and his his uh his NSA is afraid of a Putin collapse you know it's not about regime change they're they're starting to run the narrative that they believe he's afraid of of the Russian government actually collapsing if Ukraine begins to to launch missiles into Russia and move towards Victory what are your thoughts on on all of this because I do know that that uh in watching your videos the over the past couple of days that yach and uh umov the defense minister of Ukraine were in uh in the United States they were in DC and they did hold meetings with uh with Sullivan and his team and we've often said on the Duran that that Sullivan is indeed the foreign policy president of the United States I don't think that's that's a shock or or secret anymore that he is the person that really does run foreign policy in the United States especially project Ukraine anyway what are your thoughts on on what I just said right is it accurate is is it accurate or is it not accurate it is absolutely accurate is exactly what is pouring out of Ukraine at the moment I mean there's another another narrative for example that they're currently pumping out which is that the reason that the Kus operation is failing and going into reverse and that the ukrainians are suffering all these losses there and why they haven't been able to advance in cusk and capture kusk itself and press on to Moscow is because Sullivan is preventing them from launching longrange missile strikes into Russia that this is apparently and supposedly all that you know I if only he took the break off he took the break off and pressed on the you know gave Ukraine the option to put down the accelerator the ukrainians of course would win and of course we've had zalinski talking about his plan for victory that he's going to show to uh uh to well obviously Sullivan but also Biden himself who by the way is apparently now mostly absent from all discussions not just about Ukraine but pretty much everything you're getting articles appearing about that but anyway we'll disc we'll talk about that some other time but you know this the plan for victory that they're going to get show to Biden and that they're going to come all what this is is narrative construction they are creating the narrative of the stab in the back that Ukraine would have won its War but for the puel animous Cowardly behavior of the United States of the western powers of the Biden Administration and of Jake Sullivan in particular so nothing nothing that Jake Sullivan or the United States at this point in time do can reverse the situation when Jake Sullivan says which apparently he has and not just Jake Sullivan but Lloyd Austin apparent by the way just to say that there were two meetings omerov met Lloyd Austin apparently ymac Who's zelinsky's chief of staff and umov met Jake Salan and Jake Sullivan met them and it was very interesting that he did this he brought in the National Security advisor of Britain Germany and France the top advisor of the president of France the prime minister of Britain and the chancellor of Germany to sit in on this meeting so that tells you by the way that he's becoming very nervous and he wants witnesses there so that you know the whole story isn't made up but anyway um when solivan tells them look these are attacks that you want we don't have that many of them we can't produce them in large quantities most of the Russian military assets are outside their range all we're going to do if we give them to you is we're going to enrage the Russians by break breaching your red lines uh their red lines sorry and we're not going to change the realities of the war well Sullivan and Lloyd Austin and all those people are telling the ukrainians the truth but the Ukraine I of course are spinning it differently that it's Sullivan being a coward he's scared of Putin or if he's not scared of Putin he's scared that if Russia collapses if Putin Falls then the United States is going to have problems and they want there they're actually they're actually propping up Putin which which tells you that this is pure and complete compl mythologizing a narrative construction the people who we trusted to be our allies were really our enemies they betrayed us they were in League with Putin all along I you can see it and that's what they're doing now what Sullivan probably wants to the ukrainians to do is to start negotiating I I mean he's got he probably still wants the Democrats to win in November even though his boss Joe Biden is going and apparently Camala says she doesn't want him but he undoubtedly obviously still wants the Democrats to win he wants something to happen a ceasefire freeze something like that before November or if not before November at least he doesn't want a total collapse whilst he's still National Security advisor and Joe Biden is still president so he wants the ukrainians to move politically the ukrainians it's absolutely clear to me now are not interested in negotiations they would if anything prefer a collapse a military collapse but they are going to blame him for it it's not Ukraine it's not the heroic people of Ukraine and the heroic leadership and and you know zeleny and Yak is they're not they're not to blame for anything that's gone wrong it's it's the Cowardly Americans and their fears and their fact that they're propping up Putin against Ukraine and by the way this stab in the backat mythology that is already been manufactured is going to gain some Traction in Ukraine but it's also going to again an awful lot of traction among some people in the west the Neons will almost certainly seize on it to some extent and probably in the United States and you can already see it being p by all sorts of people in Britain as well um there was an art an an editorial in the guardian that basically ran with this bizarre thing idea and there was articles by Dominic Lawson in the in the times the London times so the stab in the back is going to become the accepted narrative for some people who want to just pretend that it was no part of their uh um doing that Ukraine is going down in flames it was all the fault of um Biden Sullivan Lloyd Austin and those cowards in Washington or traitors in Washington unbeliev it's unbelievable stuff they were so close to Victory they they invaded Russia and they were so close to to marching on Moscow but it turned out that project Ukraine was not about regime change it was actually about regime regime preservation right I mean it's it's crazy stuff it is absolutely it's oh my God uh what what do the Europeans uh think about all of this uh do they understand you know so Sullivan finally understands that it's game over that that's the way I'm seeing it I think you said it well he he understands that if Harris were to to win he's not g to going to be part of her Administration Harris has has said as much um obviously if Trump wins he's not going to be part of that Administration so he understands that within three four five months whatever he's he's going to a think tank or something right so so he wants to make sure that it doesn't collapse on his watch but after that he's out he's done so so that's basically his thinking and he understands that this war is lost so how do I keep this thing from collapsing on my watch even though I know that that Russia's won this uh this thing what about the Europeans because they're left holding the bag and I believe CNN reported after the umov Austin uh meeting they actually uh sat down with umov the defense minister of Ukraine and uh and I believe CNN was reporting that that basically it's you know Europe you guys have to have to deal with this at least that's what that's what the Wall Street Journal was saying with the whole F-16 thing when Biden said we're not going to send maintenance uh staff American maiden and staff to to airfields in Ukraine Biden said the Europeans have to maintain the f-16s let them deal with it I mean it seems like it's it's Europe you guys you guys have to have to handle Ukraine going forward which which was in which is in truth something that we were starting to see some months ago that the Americans are decanting responsibility for the entire Ukraine war onto the Europeans now the Europeans are completely at Sea they do not know what to do uh you can see this from the fact that they're saying as little as they possibly can now about the Ukraine war um if you're talking about oila felion uh she's spending most of her time now um when she talks about Ukraine being rude about Orban that's all she knows how to how to do at the moment they have no plan and no strategy for this situation um when I say no plan they have no plan about say how to deal with potential Refugee flows from Ukraine which we might see they have no preparation for this they have no plan how to deal with this politically and of course militarily and financially they are played out they have no more weapons to send that's what Germany's been saying uh Christian lner who's the Finance Minister is telling everybody that Germany is you know exhausted in terms of what he can do financially for Ukraine as well in Britain uh the starm administration as we saw um crazily um at the very start at its very Inception went out of its way to reaffirm its undying support for Ukraine they invited zalinski to attend a British cabinet meeting they uh lobbied on Ukraine's behalf for permission to launch missiles against Russia Russia deep into Russia but in terms of practical help they can't give any the British Poland they're all the same so I mean you know they are they are literally being left to hanging out to dry because they have no they have no they cannot they cannot do anything there's they know perfectly well um in this situation if the if the United States cannot turn the situation round in Ukraine which it can't nor can the Europeans and they know it but they can't come up with a plan on how to turn it round because the means to fulfill such a plan does not exist I'm going to make a guess that before long we're going to start to see what sorts of Mings starting to appear that again it was the fault of the Americans that the Americans weren't really in it that you know uh uh um salivan and people like him uh uh you know weren't really ready to take on Putin properly and that um the Americans Biden and his team left Europe in the Lurch that I think is probably what they're going to start to say as well it's going to be a pale version of the Ukrainian stab in the back myth not quite the same because they can't go all out as the ukrainians will but they'll be saying something fairly similar so how does that affect uh Russia's calculation of things I mean they're they're seeing everything that's happening they're also reading Ukraine media they're also reading Ukraine social media as well and and they're seeing the narrative construction that they're trying to put together the cope that they're trying to put together in order to explain uh all the bad things that are happening on uh on the side of of the Ukraine military what what do Russia do pesov gave an interesting interview the other day and uh he said uh various things about the the conflict in Ukraine and moscow's position Putin's position what what does Russia do right well I think this is where the Russians now have to start thinking about the end game and what it means um because I I'm not myself convinced that there's at this moment in time any clear um plan on how from a Russian point of view the war ends now August has been absolutely decisive August 2024 was the decisive month in terms of the war it was when Ukraine was broken militarily I mean it it's it's the it's the point where um the the Russian army rested decisively the initiative and we can see that the Ukrainian Army um is beginning to break down it's also the month where it's clear that the West militarily speaking is also played out um they can't provide Ukraine with long range missiles the plan that was Flo being floated around by maon a couple of months ago about sending troops to Ukraine has proved so massively unpopular with the European public that um it's not being entertained any longer the polls even the poles are starting to have cold feet they're saying they won't involve them elves and shooting down Russian missiles so the Russians now know that it is extremely unlikely to the point of complete imp plausibility that the Western Powers will become directly involved in the war and they also know that they have Ukraine militarily in a corner so and the other thing that happened over the course of August is that the Russians also found that by attacking in cusk the ukrainians took the pressure off the Russians in terms of negotiating with Ukraine we we we had all those signals from zalinski that he wanted negotiations um pansi the deputy ambassador of Russia to the UN confirmed in in a video with Duran that in fact the Russians were indeed exactly as we guessed on these programs coming under pressure for some of their allies to begin negotiations with the ukrainians the Russians weren't keen on that idea now that pressure has gone and that all happened in August so August from a Russian point of view has been a decisive month they know they're going to win the war militarily there's no question about that anymore if ever if there ever was they know that Victory is in sight they know the West isn't going to intervene militarily and they also know that they have U political space they're not being pressured to begin negociations so the question is what do they do how far do they go do they cross the Neer I mean they will eventually get to the deer will do they cross the deeper are they going to stick to just the four regions are they going to demand more than just the four regions do they go to Kiev do they carry car out regime change in Kiev now I think that by this stage in the war I think it is allit inconceivable that the Russians will not want regime change in Kiev at the very least having exhausted all diplomatic options having recognized that zalinski is a completely um impossible person to negotiate with having recognized that even in this crisis the ukrainians are not really prep to negotiate at all the Russians understand that some kind of regime change in Kiev is necessary but what does that mean does that mean that the Russians not only occupy Kiev and change the but but do they treat Kev again as Russian territory as it was for hundreds of years until 1991 or do they try to establish an alternative government there what are the long-term plans for uh Central and Western Ukraine do they move to bring all these territories back within the Russian World as they say or do they go for a more um conservative solution sticking perhaps to the four regions and perhaps some other territories on the East Bank of the NEPA maybe Haru as well and and then see whether they can come up with some kind of longer term arrangement for the Central and Western Ukraine which um they know that the global Community will be happier with so I that those are the those are the questions that I think the Russians have deferred up to now but which I think they're going to start thinking about and I'm going to make a guess that with every day that passes with the Russian army moving further and further westwards those people in Moscow who say Victory is within our grasp why should we settle for anything less than our maximalist objectives the position of those people people like medve people like the people in the general staff the military the staffa the people that John hel was talking about in the program we did with him recently on the Duran the position of those people becomes stronger so we'll just have to see what the Russians do yeah just a final thought uh going back to pesco's interview the other day he he seemed to hint at at the fact that that Moscow is is very uh unhappy with Europe the EU made some very bad decisions and they are going to pay a price for those bad decisions pesov said as much and uh they seem like they really do want to stick it to the Biden White House I don't know that's kind of the impression that I got I know that that that the Russian government and Putin they don't make decisions like that but they did talk about uh Biden's rudeness um towards uh towards Putin and to Russia and how that's not going to be forgotten uh just another thing to note uh the Russian economy continues to to grow and uh energy gas oil is continuing to to be bought by uh Europe from Russia even more than than what they're buying from the United States so you know Russia Russia's got got a lot of cards to play well absolutely they're back apparently um um R Russia's back to providing 15% of Europe's gas I it's astonishing but I mean you know they tried to you they were going to end all dependence on Russian gas and uh Russian gas is once again forming an ever and growing part of the European Energy Mix and will continue to do so H uh so there we go I mean it's it's from a Russian point of view they hold all the strong cards all the high cards the point is that they' got to play those cards carefully and well and emotion does play a part in Russian decision making nobody should think that these people are just calculating machines and that they have no feelings I mean they are furious with Biden they are furious with the Europeans they will never forget what I think many of them see as Germany's betrayal or at least the Betrayal of the German political establishment the fact that Russia worked so hard from all the way going all the way back to the 1960s to establish a strong relationship with Germany um even assisting in the late 80s and 90s in the process of German reunification only to have Germany do this total flip impose the most extreme sanctions on them mo try and mobilize Europe against them lead a political campaign against them in Europe um they will not forget that quickly and um obviously they're angry about it they're angry about all of these things but as you absolutely rightly say at the end of the day they will make their decisions their long-term decisions based on their calculations of Russian national interest Churchill said it really well I mean he said it right back in I it was 1939 that you know when people talk about Russian foreign policy being a Myster a riddle wrapped in a mystery the key to the mystery is Russian National interest it's a the part of that comment that people always Overlook the Russians ultimately will always what will ultimately make the decisions is what they calculate their long-term interests to be it will be very difficult indeed very difficult indeed for the Germans to reestablish a relationship with Russia the kind that they had before the War Began all right we will end it there the durant. locals.com we are on Odyssey shoot Rumble Telegram and Twitter X and go to the Duran shop pick up some merch like the t-shirts that we are wearing today you will find a link in the description box down below take care n [Music]