HOW TO PREDICT FOOTBALL MATCHES & PROFIT USING THIS BETTING FORMULA (1X2, BTTS, Over/under 2.5)

are you excited like me football is back at the weekend most of the top leagues are returning are you ready to start taking the sports box money if the answer is yes keep it here and let's crack on you will learn from this video things like a goal markets own Advantage we're going to do some simple calculations you will use preson distribution and by the end you will be creating your own odds if you do like this type of video and you do find it helpful please please give us a like And subscribe to the channel I need you to take note before we do get started that this is a simple prediction model it doesn't allow for situational factors now a situational Factor could be like you know player changes during the summer management uh whether they're playing during the daytime or on the flood lights we are using last season's data this is absolutely fantastic for learning Sports modeling the Journey's got to start somewhere so this is a a good starting point and it works particularly well for lower leagues you know where sort of sports betting companies don't take as much noted for the purpose of doing this video we have collected data from the English Premier League U Italy Sera France la League Spain La Liga and the German bundes league this is just an overview of the top five leagues what we're going to be covering I've got yellow cards at the end now that is not important as as far as this video goes but it justes show you what the average out had last year if you want to use them you know for the purpose of betting in the card markets then please take note uh but we're going to discuss these now individually so first things first Total goals average per game during 2023 24 you can see in the English Premier League right the average goals was 3.28 from the 380 games played of those 1.80 was scored at home and 1.48 away in Italy Sera it was 2. 61 of which 143 was scored at home 118 away can Liga 270 145 125 and so on you can see that for yourself the others right so now if we do the home goal Advantage this is very simple all you do is you deduct the away from the oh right so oh in the English Premier League was 180 and it was 148 away so you're left with an N advantage of 0 .32 goals in the Italy Ser a is 0.25 goals in France it's very low 0.20 goals Spain La Liga 0.32 and the German Bundesliga 0.40 now while last season's uh you know results don't necessarily mean it's going to happen the same again it gives you some sort of incling of what happens in these types of if we use these goals now and have a look at the over 2.5 goals cuz a lot of you like to bet the sort of unders overs you know it's a popular bet and both teams to score so you can see English Premier League with it average of 3.28 goals came out with overs uh winning 64.8% of those matches right in Italy Sera where it was 2.61 only 49.2% uh ended going over right now the thing is when you do learn about the Pres a little bit later on you would have to average out at about 2.64 goals per game you know uh that's the typical sort of person distribution to come out at 5050 you know odds of 2.0 on both the over 2.5 and under 2.5 so just bear that in mind you can see the both teams to score uh you can see obviously England and uh Germany are very eye the others are quite closely grouped together this are a 2.4 you can see that is higher than the two and a half goals that both teams to score and it's the same with the friend of the league and same with the Spain La Liga so you know when the goal expectancy is lower the both teams score is a more popular back and the interesting thing is normally you'd get better odds on both teams to score than you would on the over what you can see there is that if you did actually bet Spain Liga and you bet everything under 2.5 last year and you did the same in Italy Sera I can guarantee you you would have profited I mean we look at the closing line value but you would have profited in those two leagues by betting that under two BS so now if we just consider the uh results on last season the number of own wins the number of draws and the percent away you can see in England you know the F fascinating part about that is that the drawers was right down to 21.6% uh the others are quite closely matched aren't they if you look at Italy Sera F La league and Spain La League uh so just bear that in mind now what we what we would normally do in this situation we would then convert these percentages into bettin so it's just simply 100 divide by the percent is the actual betting no and you can see that here in England with betting the draw last year You' probably lost a fortune if you just betting the draws every game because of youat match out at odds of over 4.63 uh to make a profit and it's the same you know like if he was betting all the away teams in England last year right you would have to match out at over 309 to profit so you can see the differences uh there the others are more together in terms of Italy Sera is the lowest at 3.39 would expect that to go up this season just like we expect the English Premier League to sort of drop down now France La Liga and the sort of German bundes league you sort of think they're more sort of realistic and Spain legal so 3.55 that was traditionally sort of you know 28% draws was uh pretty standard for top leagues so just take those into consideration now what we're going to do is that data that we've uh looked at we're going to use that to create better nods with the pass on distribution the the data that we're going to use though we're going to just take these top three leagues Eng Premier ital Sera the offensive League they're the odds you know the 18 1.48 what we're going to be pumping into the system and uh if you just need to know what PR distribution is it's a statistical technique used to model the probability of a given number of events occurring within a given time interval a popular use of pron is calculating all probabilities and betting Nots in football matches so the first pro distribution calculator is XG score we've already got the uh English Premier League in 1.80 1.48 that's what we add to the have from last season and you can see what they create once you press them you got all of 2.18 the draw 4.18 and the away 3.32 if you go down to the over 2.5 goals you can see it creates all different sorts of odds for the totals but over 2.5 is 156 with the 2.78 is uh the under and uh you go both teams to score 1.49 and 305 now if we change those odds you'll see them change as I actually tap them in right so look 1.43 now and we're going to then you can see how the O's changed how they moved out right but we'll do the away at 1.18 and you'll see that those odds change again we can H the probabilities if you wish to or just go straight for the odds again right and you can see that in Italy it's 2.31 the ohm in this instance you know if expect his goals with 143 and 118 the drw would be 3.72 and the 335 this is out there calculating it the over under 2.5 is 203 with 197 all 100% books and uh of course you've got the both teams uh both to score yes 178 229 no now if we go over to the other website I quite like this one actually is cin they take their data from football dat. UK so we know it's pretty good uh we can uh calculate uh the same the English Premier League we go 180 the own team 148 the8 team and you can say they come up with a set of ODS of 2.21 on the oh uh 4.38 the draw and 3.14 the away wind right we can also scroll down we can see that both teams score 155 and uh not the score is 281 and as for the under over 157 with 275 is 100% book uh also what I like about sinim for you cuz this can be pretty beneficial for lower leagues it's actual correct score so you can see nil nil that is the odds for the correct score if we want to try another one uh we did put in three so let's be generous here let's just put in France we'll go 45 and we do the one 125 we'll calculate the odds and you can see they've just uh changed right so you've got 239 the oh uh 39 the draw 307 the away as far as the uh under overs goes you got 197 with 203 and both teams the score goes to 183 to 22 I would suggest that you play around with these websites yourself but you know it won't take you long to get the gist of what's happening and I'll put a link obviously in the description now we need to compare the results of what the pon calculated through out and uh you know what actually happened last season so if we look at uh the over and under goals we can see they're pretty close to you know what happened except with the C of Spain La league but that was a little bit indifferent like we mentioned uh English Premier League 154 with 284 you see I mean XG score and S win they've got both pretty close if they're on the dot XG score with Italy Sera and the German bundes leager as well the you can't complain with that as so so you can see with the Ala you would say it's a fair reflection of actually what happened uh to you know the results that came out at the end right so if we go to the onx uh uh to comparison uh again you know the English Premier League with those big odds about the the draw last year that's obviously going to be a bit of spanner in the works but uh everything else worked out I wouldn't say close I mean there was a bit of a different day in the German bunders league it wasn't there but again more draws came out than actually what the pr on calculator was sort of expecting right so this is a bit of a weakness that it's not sort of taken into account individual leagues but again you know things balance out over the space of time then still a good reflection and you can see how this would help you in the the sort of smaller leagues right the lower leagues right with the both teams to score this is where I'd have the biggest issue as you can see XG score are actually getting nowhere near uh the actual uh results from last season since when they are a little bit closer one facet that I will mention is that actually there's uh you know you're probably better off betting the both teams to score in Italy Sera France La Liga and Spain La Liga compared to the over 2.5 goals because the percentages holding up a little bit better and you're going to get a little bit M of value yeah but uh yeah I mean okay you know both teams to score it's not a big thing for the sort of professional gambler but you know for the ledure player it's something that you could be considering so consider that you can also go oners can't you and uh yeah so let's move on let's go and calculate an EPL day one match that's coming up you know it's playing of the weekend right this is the first game of the season West Ham against Aston Villa so what we're going to do in this instance we're going to work out the attacker strength of each team we're going to uh try to sort of you know go on last season's result and see what we come up with right so we're going to determine the average number of goals scored per team per home game and per away game the season total goals scored home divided by the number of uh games you know in the season the season total goals scored Away by the number of games in the season so in the EPL for example you know there was 684 uh you know play The Domes divided by 380 that came to that 180 and the 562 divided by the uh 380 uh came out with u 1.48 right so you know you've got those two together the ratio of the teams average and the uh League average is for constitute the attack strength right the defense strength that is you have to determine the average number of goals and average team conceives per home game and per away game this is simply the inverse of the last numbers that you know we mentioned before so it's the average number of goals ConEd to is 1.48 the average number of goals conceded away is 1.8 so the ratio of a team's average and The League average is what constitutes defense strength so in the instance of West H if we do the G calculation right you can just take my words for this I've already done the averages right so the number of goals scored at home by West Ham last season with 31 divided by the 19 you got 163 you divide this uh by the value of this season's average home goal so 163 and you knew it was 1.80 and there you get the attack strength of 0.91 so now you calculate Aston Villa's defend strength because you're doing the opposite aren't you right so the number of goals ConEd Away by ason vill last season with 33 divided by 19 = 1.74 now you divide uh this by The Season's average consed away goals in this instance that's 174 by 180 and you're going to get 0.97 so now all we have to do to find out the XG is multiply 0.91 the attack 0.97 the defense uh by The League average 1.80 and so we come up with a number that it's 1.59 for West Ham uh XG in this particular game right now if we move on to Aston Villa so uh we have to in this instance we're going to do it the opposite way around so you can calculate Aston Villa's attack strength number of goals scored Away by Aston Villa they scored 28 divide by 19 is 1.47 divide this by divide this value the 147 by this season's average away goals which was 148 and you get 0 .99 now we have to calculate West Ham's defense strength obviously because they're their own team right so now we've got to do the opposite so number of go calls conceded Away by West Ham was 28 by9 it's 1.57 divide this 1.57 by The Season's average considered at home goals which is 1.48 and you get defense strength of a 0.99 so now we just have to times the three again multiply 0.99 to 0.9 with the league average for the away which is 1.48 right and you come up with 1 1.45 so you can see you know there the differences you got 1.59 to 1.45 there I just wrote it down just to make it uh easy for you to sort of follow you can see it's at the bottom 1.59 and now we just bang it into the calculator and you can see the odds that are coming up right uh it says that the own wi is average odds should be odds of about 2.47 the draw 4.18 and the away win 2.81 as far as the overs and unders go they're expecting you know 1.69 for the overs and 2.45 under and if we go to both teams to score we can see it's 1.63 that both teams score yes and that they don't is 2.6 yeah so that's about the gist of it if you want to be a successful Gambler my advice is simple keep on learning the bigger the problem you solve the more money you're going to make so that's just about it if you have any questions any comments then you know where to leave them also check out the description I'm going to give you all the links that you're going to need to get onto these websites to look up Pon for yourself also probably some reference websites and a long description so that's it you're through to Camp again for now take care bye-bye [Music]